GLOBAL AND LOCAL INTERPLAYS BETWEEN VULNERABILITY AND DEVELOPMENT: An overview of projects and analysis. Ebru A. Gencer Columbia University

Transcription

1 GLOBAL AND LOCAL INTERPLAYS BETWEEN VULNERABILITY AND DEVELOPMENT: An overview of projects and analysis Ebru A. Gencer Columbia University

2 INTRODUCTION Theory: Disaster Vulnerability & Sustainable Development 1- Vulnerability and Sustainable Development: Global Trends - Globalization and Its Impacts on Disaster Vulnerability 2- Vulnerability and Development: The Urban Realm - Socio-Spatial Inequality and Urban Vulnerability: Case of Istanbul 3- Vulnerability in the Central America and the Caribbean Region - Dominican Republic and CATALYST Conclusion: An Integrated Assessment for Disaster Vulnerability

3 VULNERABILITY AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT: GLOBAL TRENDS 1- Globalization and Vulnerability from Natural Disasters Inter-regional Polarization, Income Inequality and Vulnerability

4 GLOBAL TRENDS: Sustainable Development and Vulnerability Fig. Countries in study and their income groups. (Gencer, E. 2007). (Adapted from Country Classification by Income Aggregates Reference Map, UNISDR 2005) Study: how sustainable development levels correlate with the disaster vulnerability of countries. Sustainable Development Indicators - Poverty and Social Equity - Economic Development - Physical Standards of Living - Institutional Capacity

5 GLOBAL TRENDS: Sustainable Development and Vulnerability Income Inequality and Vulnerability Figs. Poverty Gaps and Disaster Vulnerability Data source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database. - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels Belgium and World Development Indicators (WDI) and PovCal Net (World Bank) and A New Dataset Measuring Income Inequality (Deininger and Squire 1997). Gencer, E. A The Interplay between Natural Disasters, Vulnerability, and Sustainable Development. Ph.D diss. Columbia University a For this and all following tables, mathematical equation for first average is: Mean1= x/n b For this and all following tables, mathematical equation for second average is: Mean2= x - (xmax+ xmin)/n (nmax+ nmin)

6 GLOBAL TRENDS: Globalization and its Impacts Income Inequality and Vulnerability Figs. China: Share of Sectors in GDP; Share of Urban and Rural Population; Share of Total Affected Population from Natural Disasters; Poverty Levels; and GINI Index Data source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database. - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels Belgium and World Development Indicators (WDI), the World Bank. Gencer, E Socio-Economic and Spatial Changes due to the Global Economy since the late 1970s and Their Relation to Vulnerability from Natural Disasters. Background paper prepared for the 2013 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction. Geneva, Switzerland: UNISDR. (in preparation). Note: Poverty Gap at 1$ a day is the mean shortfall from the poverty line, expressed as a percentage of the poverty line. GINI Index measures the extent to which the distribution of income within an economy deviates from a perfectly equal distribution (WDI).

7 GLOBAL TRENDS: Globalization and its Impacts Figs. India: Share of Urban and Rural Population; Share of Sectors in GDP; Share of Total Affected Population from Natural Disasters; Share of Damage in GDP Data source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database. - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels Belgium and World Development Indicators (WDI) Gencer, E Socio-Economic and Spatial Changes due to the Global Economy since the late 1970s and Their Relation to Vulnerability from Natural Disasters. Background paper prepared for the 2013 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction. Geneva, Switzerland: UNISDR. (in preparation).

8 VULNERABILITY AND DEVELOPMENT: THE URBAN REALM 1- An Overview of Urban Vulnerability 2- Case Study of Istanbul 3- A range of risk mitigation projects

9 VULNERABILITY in the URBAN REALM: An Overview Fig. Natural hazards and world s most populous cities by 2015: Mega-cities and cities over five million people. (Gencer, E. 2007) (Adapted with courtesy of Munich Re, 2006). Urbanization Urbanization: >50% of world population live in urban areas Large & Megacities: Increase in number of people living by 2015 Hazards: >75% of 100 large cities are exposed to hazards Location: Low- and middle-income countries Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei July 26, 2012 Venice, Italy

10 VULNERABILITY in the URBAN REALM: An Overview Figs. Urban Population Growth and Disaster Vulnerability Data source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database. - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels Belgium and World Development Indicators (WDI) Gencer, E. A The Interplay between Natural Disasters, Vulnerability, and Sustainable Development. Ph.D diss. Columbia University Higher Urban Growth Lower Urban Growth Higher Human Losses Higher Monetary Damages

11 VULNERABILITY in the URBAN REALM: An Overview Urban Vulnerability - Location - Building materials - Municipal services - Infrastructure - Land titles - Social exclusion - Urban poverty Shoring of balconies in vacation homes in Playa del Sol, Spain (Photo: Gencer, E. 2003) Space reconfigurations in an apartment building in the highly seismic Avcilar neighb., Istanbul (Photo: Gencer, E. 2004) - Construction practices - Control/code violation - Corruption - Choice/disregard Informal living on the hills of Istanbul, Pendik (Photo: Gencer, E. 2004) Self-built houses in Beykoz, Istanbul (Photo: Gencer, E. 2002)

12 VULNERABILITY in the URBAN REALM: Istanbul Case Study Fig. Historic Progression of Earthquakes on North Anatolian Fault (Gencer, E. 2007) (Courtesy of USGS) August 1999 Marmara Earthquake - Fatalities: 18,000 people - Injuries: 50,000 people - Direct and Indirect Economic Loss: $5 to $12 billion (world s highest relief cost ) - Share of affected cities in GDP: 34.7% Fig. Intensity distribution after a Mw=7.5 Earthquake (Gencer, E. 2007) (Map by Mustafa Erdik et al. 2001) Earthquake Hazard Assessment - M. 7 + earthquake probability: 32 +/- 12 % in 10 years 62 +/- 15 % in 30 years (Parsons et al.2000) - M. 7.5 scenario earthquake predictions: Casualties: 30,000 to 40,000 people Shelter needs: +600,000 households Building damage loss: $12 billion

13 VULNERABILITY in the URBAN REALM: Istanbul Case Study Istanbul: an overview of the urban condition - Migration: /year - Annual growth rate: 3.5% - Informal settlements: 60% Fig. Evolution of a squatter (Gencer, E. 2007) (Study by A. Özsoy 1983) Fig. Squatter settlements in Istanbul in a 1968 study (Gencer, E. 2007) (Map by Kemal Karpat, 1976) % Buildings with Legal Permits % Buildings Pardoned w. Amnesties % Buildings Illegal Squatters Fig. Informal settlements in Istanbul (Photo: Gencer, E. 2004) Fig. Istanbul s Development (Gencer, E. 2007) (Adapted from Doğan Kuban, Şehrin gelişimi. 1994).

14 VULNERABILITY in the URBAN REALM: Istanbul Case Study Fig. The 1980 approved Istanbul Metropolitan Area Master Plan (Map by Büyük İstanbul Nazım Plan Bürosu). Fig. Collapsed 6 story apartment building adjacent to Station AB1 in Avcılar (Courtesy of USGS) Fig. Distribution of Damage after August 17, 1999 Earthquake in Istanbul (Map by Istanbul Governorate Disaster Management Center)

15 VULNERABILITY in the URBAN REALM: Istanbul Case Study Fig. Istanbul Administration Borders Source: Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality 1995 Plan Analysis City of Istanbul Province Governor (state appointed) Governors Disaster Management Center (AYM disaster response and coordination) Prepares 1/25000 environment regulation plan with Ministry of Public Works and Settlement. Approval by the Ministry Dual Living in Beykoz (Photos: Fisher, L and Gencer, E. 2005). Inequality of Income Distribution in Istanbul Independent District Municipalities out of Metropolitan Municipality Borders Mayor (elected) Prepares and approves their own 1/5000 and 1/1000 development plans Metropolitan Municipality Mayor (elected) Disaster Coordination Center (AKOM) Prepares and approves 1/5000 master development plans 20% upto $2000 $46,000 Provincial Municipalities out of Metropolitan Municipality Borders Mayor (elected) Prepares and approves their own 1/5000 and 1/1000 development plans Independent District Municipality in Metropolitan Municipality Borders Mayor (elected) Prepares and approves their own 1/5000 and 1/1000 development plans District Municipalities Mayor (elected) Prepares 1/1000 application plans Approval of the plan by district and metropolitan m. council. Plans that are rejected by the metropolitan m. but reapproved by 2/3 of the district council resume 80% Fig. Income Distribution in Istanbul. (Gencer, E Sustainable Planning for Disaster Mitigation in Istanbul. Provention Consortium Grants.) Fig. Istanbul Administration System (Gencer, E Sustainable Planning for Disaster Mitigation in Istanbul. Provention Consortium Grants.) Provincial Municipalities in Metropolitan Municipality Borders Mayor (elected) Prepares and approves their own 1/5000 and 1/1000 development plans

16 VULNERABILITY in the URBAN REALM: Istanbul Case Study PROJECT RESULTS: Pilot Project Locations Istanbul (Total) Kadikoy Zeytinburnu Avcilar Population (2000) Annual Growth Rate Population Density (p/km²) ~ ~ ~ Rank of District GDP (1996) Unemployment Rate Higher Education rate % 12.7 %11 3rd % 6 % 23 6th % 6.8 % 4 14th % 7.4 % 7 Source: Columbia University International Studio Disaster Resistant Istanbul Report. Adapted from NEHRP Soil Classification Map for Istanbul, % of insurance purchase 38% 64 % 31% 49% Fig. Disparities between district municipalities within the borders of Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality. (Gencer, E Sustainable Planning for Disaster Mitigation in Istanbul. Provention Consortium Grants). Zeytinburnu, Kadikoy, Avcilar. (Photos: Gencer, E )

17 VULNERABILITY in the URBAN REALM: Istanbul Case Study Kadıköy Even in such a sensitive municipality, we are also a unit under the department of environment. The institutions do not have any law, any actuality about this matter. M. Bilgin (Disaster Management Project, Kadıköy Municipality) - Annual Growth Rate: 2 - GDP Rank in Istanbul: 3 rd - Unemployment Rate: % 6 - Higher Education rate: % 23 - Rate of Projected Heavy Damage to Number of Buildings (JICA 2002): % Percentage of insurance purchase: %64 A new residential complex in Kadıköy ( Photo: Franco, G. 2003)

18 VULNERABILITY in the URBAN REALM: Istanbul Case Study Zeytinburnu The problem is that the damaged buildings are without construction licences and are at odds with development plans. Out of 15,000 buildings, 2000 of them were built illegally after 1980 amnesty laws. There are an additional 200 buildings that are pardoned by amnesty laws. M. Yıldırım (Civil Engineer, Zeytinburnu Municipality) Buildings in Zeytinburnu (Photo: Gencer, E. 2003) - Annual Growth Rate: 40 - GDP Rank in Istanbul: 6 th - Unemployment Rate: % Higher Education rate: % 4 - Rate of Projected Heavy Damage to Number of Buildings (JICA 2002): % Percentage of insurance purchase: %31

19 VULNERABILITY in the URBAN REALM: Istanbul Case Study Avcılar There is a confusion of authority. Everybody considers the event from their point of view. This view brings distress as well as consumption of time and efforts. S. Yalçınkaya (Chief Urban Planner, Avcılar Municipality) Apartment buildings in Avcılar (Photo: Franco, G. 2003) - Annual Growth Rate: 61 - GDP Rank in Istanbul: 14 th - Unemployment Rate: % Higher Education rate: % 7 - Rate of Projected Heavy Damage to Number of Buildings (JICA 2002): % Percentage of insurance purchase: %49

20 VULNERABILITY in the CENTRAL AMERICA and the CARIBBEAN Region 1- Dominican Republic 2- CATALYST

21 VULNERABILITY in the CAC Region: The Dominican Republic Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei July 26, 2012 Venice, Italy

22 VULNERABILITY in the CAC Region: The Dominican Republic

23 VULNERABILITY in the CAC Region: The Dominican Republic Gencer, E. A., ed Natural Hazards and Disaster Risk Management in the Dominican Republic. New York: Urban Design Lab at the Earth Institute at Columbia University.

24 VULNERABILITY in the CAC Region: The Dominican Republic Gencer, E. A. ed Natural Hazards and Disaster Risk Management in the Dominican Republic. New York: Urban Design Lab at the Earth Institute at Columbia University.

25 VULNERABILITY in the CAC Region: CATALYST Project Disaster Risk Index (DRI) (Peduzzi et al., 2009) of CAC countries (FEEM cartographic elaboration). Environmental Vulnerability Index (EVI) of CAC countries (FEEM cartographic elaboration).

26 GRAZIE! Ebru A. Gencer Columbia University