Thailand s Load Forecast

Transcription

1 Thailand s Load Forecast Viraphol Jirapraditkul Director General Energy Policy and Planning Office Presented at the First High Level Forum on LaoThai Partnership in Sustainable Hydropower Development ShangriLa Hotel, Bangkok September 7 th,

2 Agenda 1. Overview of Power Demand 2. Load Forecast (March 2007) 4 Key Assumptions 3. Load Forecast Methodology 4. Load Forecast Outcome 2

3 Thailand Load Forecast Subcommittee Permanent Secretary of Energy (Dr. Pornchai Rujiprapa) Chairman DirectorGeneral, Energy Policy and Planning Office ViceChairman Representative of Energy Policy and Planning Office Secretary Representatives of Government Agencies: Energy Policy and Planning Office (EPPO) Office of the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB) Department of Alternative Energy Development and Efficiency (DEDE) Thailand Development Research Institute (TDRI) Representatives of Power Consumers: The Federation of Thai Industries Board of Trade of Thailand Representatives of Power Producers/Distributors: Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand Metropolitan Electricity Authority Provincial Electricity Authority The Association of Private Power Producers Experts: Mr. Tienchai Chongpeerapieng Dr. Vichit Lorchirachoonkul 3

4 1. Overview of Power Demand MEA EGAT s Direct Customers PEA Energy Use = Sale Loss Energy Use Energy Use = Sale Loss Energy Demand Energy Demand Energy Demand Consumers VSPP Energy sold by EGAT Power Plants of EGAT Use & Station Service IPP & SPP Transmission Loss VSPP DEDE PEA Producers 4

5 Electricity Consumption, National Income and Population Ktoe, GWh, Thousand Persons 140, , , , ,000 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10, GDP Growth Rate (%) Electricity Consumption Elasticity National Income (Billion Baht) Population (Thousand Persons) Electricity Consumption (GWh) Final Energy Consumption (Ktoe) Petroleum Consumption (Ktoe) Billion Baht 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,

6 Electricity Consumption Per Capita (1,000 Kw h) 8 Ele ctricity Per Capita Thailand Brunei 7 India 6 Indonesia 5 Malaysia 4 Singapore 3 Vietnam 2 China 1 0 Japan Korea Source: Energy Information Administration, International Energy Annual

7 Electricity Consumption and GDP in log(ele ctricity ) y = x Malaysia Singapore New Zealand Brunei การใช ไฟฟ า และ GDP ของประเทศต างๆ ป 2547 A ustralia Russia Canada Korea United States China Japan India Germany Franc e United Kingdom Italy Brazil Mexico Spain Indonesia Thailand Thailand Philippines Hong Kong Vietnam log(gdp) Source: Energy Information Administration, International Energy Annual 2004 & IMF 7

8 2. Load Forecast (March 2007) Key Assumptions: 1. GDP growth rates by the NESDB 2. Loss in the Power Utility Systems 3. Demand Side Management (DSM) 4. Amount of Power Purchase from VSPPs/SPPs 8

9 Load Forecast Key Assumptions 1. GDP. Base Case: Global economic growth rate % Dubai crude price at 5560 USD/barrel GDP by NESDB as at 11 Oct Note: The LF SubCommittee applies the average GDP during to the period Low Case : Ref. GDP Base Case 0.5 High Case: Ref. GDP Base Case +0.5 Year Average in the NESD Plan Case th Plan 11th Plan 12th Plan Low Base High

10 Load Forecast Key Assumptions (Cont.) 2. Loss in the Power Utility System % PEA MEA EGAT

11 Load Forecast Key Assumptions (Cont.) 3. Demand Side Management (DSM): TOD/TOU ESCO Energysaving Buildings DSM: Energy efficiency improvement of appliances/equipment; projects implemented (energyefficient efficient No. 5 5 airconditioners & refrigerators) DSM: New projects (removal of incandescent bulbs); target to reduce electricity consumption by 330 GWh/year To reduce Energy Elasticity from 1.4:1 to 1:1 by

12 Load Forecast Key Assumptions (Cont.) Demand Side Management (DSM): Elasticity Elasticity of Electricity Consumption PEA PEA average MEA average PEA MEA MEA Source: DEDE Elasticity of MEA is assigned to reduce at a progressive rate and then at a constant rate in the last 5 years. Elasticity of PEA is assigned to reduce at a constant rate Elasticity = % Growth of Energy % Growth of GDP 12

13 Load Forecast Key Assumptions (Cont.) Demand Side Management (DSM): Elasticity MEA_Jan PEA_Jan Total_Jan Elasticity = % Growth of Energy / % Growth of GDP 13

14 Load Forecast: Fixed Elasticity Case MW 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 11,926 5,667 Fixed Elasticity Case = Peak > Mar07 Peak = 11,926 MW Fixed Elasticity Case = Peak > Mar07 Peak = 5,667 MW Actual Mar07 Elasticity=1.18 Elasticity=1.32 Demand Side Management (DSM): >> Elasticity reduced 14

15 Comparison of Averaged Annual Load Factor Load Factor (%) % (West Germany) 75.2% (Thailand)* 69.3% (France) 67.4% (UK) 66.3% (Canada) 61.2% (USA) 59.5% (Japan) 59.0% (Italy) Year Source: The Federation of Electric Power Companies of Japan, Dec 2002; * EGAT data 15

16 Load Forecast Key Assumptions (Cont.) 4. Amount of Power Purchase from VSPPs/SPPs: MEA and PEA can purchase electricity directly from VSPPs,, so their purchase from EGAT will be reduced. The government is promoting VSPPs/SPPs generation: VSPPs: Providing Adder for electricity generated from renewable energy Increasing purchase ceiling from VSPPs from 1MW to 10MW each Purchase capacity not limited SPPs: Increasing the purchase capacity from SPP Cogeneration/Renewable Energy from 3,200 MW to 4,000 MW Providing Adder to SPPs using Renewable Energy, totaling 530 MW: Fixed Adder for generation using MSW, wind, solar energy: 230 MW Adder Bidding for generation using biomass/biogas/others: 300 MW 16

17 Promotion of SPP/VSPP Generation SPP 1 st Phase: 1,030 MW VSPP Cogeneration (Cap. >10MW 90 MW) 500 MW Renewable (Cap. >10 MW) 530 MW Cogeneration ( 10 MW) Renewable ( 10 MW) Types of Fuel Natural GasFired Projects CoalFired Projects MSW Wind Solar Others Fuel Type Fixed Adder Adder Bidding Total Supportive Measure Fixed Adder Adder Bidding Max. Adder (Baht/kWh) Expected Cap. (MW) Supportive Measure Adder Fuel Type Adder (Baht/kWh) Biomass 0.30 Biogas 0.30 Mini Hydro (50200 kw) 0.40 Micro Hydro (< 50 kw) 0.80 MSW 2.50 Wind 2.50 Solar

18 Expected VSPP Generation Installed Capacity of VSPP VSPP Reducing EGAT's Peak Year MEA PEA TOTAL MEA PEA TOTAL , ,

19 3. Load Forecast Methodology MW เม ก ะว ตต 2 0,0 0 0 ล กษณ ะการใช ไฟ ฟ า (Load Profiles) Load Profile 1, O T H E R S G O V E R N M E N T 1 5, , S P E C IF IC 8, , , , , I N D U S T R I A L 3, , , ,0 0 0 B U S I N E S S 3, , ,0 0 0 S M A L L G E N E R A L 6,0 0 0 S E R V I C E 0 :0 0 4 :0 0 8 : : : :0 0 4, ,0 0 0 R E S ID E N T I A L Energy Forecast (kwh ) Load Profile Peak Demand Forecast (kw) Model DSM & other data Load Factors 19

20 Load Forecast Methodology (Cont.) 1. Energy 2. Peak MEA & PEA: Econometric Model with Error Correction Model is used, taking into account the achievement of DSM implementation & assuming the Energy Elasticity will continuously decrease, plus deduction of expected outcome of new DSM projects EGAT Direct Customers: Direct survey and data collection from all customers Whole Country: Energy derived from MEA & PEA and Direct Customers + Loss, Station Use and Pump Storage MEA & PEA: Former Load Profile is applied and Load Factor = the Apr06 Load Forecast EGAT Direct Customers: Direct survey and data collection from all customers EGAT: Former Load Curve is applied Whole Country: EGAT Peak + MEA Peak purchased from VSPPs + PEA Peak purchased from VSPPs and others 20

21 Peak Forecast of MEA and PEA เมกะว ตต MW 20,000 ล กษณะการใช ไฟฟ า LOAD PROFILES (Load Profiles) 1, OTHERS , GOVERNMENT 10, ,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 3,000 SPECIFIC INDUSTRIAL 2,000 5,000 1,000 3,000 BUSINESS 2,000 1,000 6,000 SMALL GENERAL SERVICE 0:00 4:00 8:00 12:00 16:00 20:00 4,000 2,000 RESIDENTIAL 21

22 4. Load Forecast Outcome Generation Requirement in the EGAT System: Base Case Low Case High Case 22

23 Generation Requirement in the EGAT System: Base Case Peak Energy Load Year Increase Increase Factor MW GWh MW % GWh % % Forecast 2007 (2550) 22,513 1, ,665 8, (2551) 23,957 1, ,994 8, (2552) 25,225 1, ,947 8, (2553) 26,635 1, ,285 9, (2554) 27,996 1, ,926 8, (2555) 29,625 1, ,723 10, (2556) 31,384 1, ,478 11, (2557) 33,216 1, ,759 12, (2558) 35,251 2, ,375 13, (2559) 37,382 2, ,575 14, (2560) 39,560 2, ,076 14, (2561) 41,795 2, ,021 14, (2562) 44,082 2, ,257 15, (2563) 46,481 2, ,236 15, (2564) 48,958 2, ,697 16, Average Growth , , , , , , , , , , , ,

24 Generation Requirement in the EGAT System: Low Case Peak Energy Load Year Increase Increase Factor MW GWh MW % GWh % % Forecast 2007 (2550) 22,311 1, ,301 7, (2551) 23,609 1, ,668 7, (2552) 24,718 1, ,557 7, (2553) 25,956 1, ,742 8, (2554) 27,130 1, ,121 7, (2555) 28,551 1, ,530 9, (2556) 30,084 1, ,752 10, (2557) 31,668 1, ,365 10, (2558) 33,430 1, ,146 11, (2559) 35,268 1, ,381 12, (2560) 37,131 1, ,739 12, (2561) 39,027 1, ,415 12, (2562) 40,951 1, ,227 12, (2563) 42,964 2, ,608 13, (2564) 45,031 2, ,320 13, Average Growth , , , , , , , , , ,

25 Generation Requirement in the EGAT System: High Case Peak Energy Load Year Increase Increase Factor MW GWh MW % GWh % % Forecast 2007 (2550) 22,562 1, ,998 9, (2551) 24,145 1, ,249 9, (2552) 25,566 1, ,222 9, (2553) 27,145 1, ,694 10, (2554) 28,692 1, ,591 9, (2555) 30,526 1, ,764 12, (2556) 32,510 1, ,039 13, (2557) 34,591 2, ,996 13, (2558) 36,904 2, ,476 15, (2559) 39,340 2, ,723 16, (2560) 41,843 2, ,431 16, (2561) 44,435 2, ,767 17, (2562) 47,099 2, ,547 17, (2563) 49,908 2, ,273 18, (2564) 52,823 2, ,682 19, Average Growth , , , , , , , , , , , ,

26 Comparison of Peak Demand: Generation Requirement MW 55,000 50,000 45,000 High 3,865 MW Base 3,927 MW Low 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10, Year 26

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