Key Findings (preliminary): Asia Pacific Visitor Forecasts Report

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1 Key Findings (preliminary): Asia Pacific Visitor Forecasts Report

2 Please Note The findings presented here are preliminary and as delivered at the ASEAN Tourism Forum, January Final checks and balances for more than 30 destinations within the Asia Pacific region are currently underway and will be posted on PATAmPOWER before the end of the first quarter.

3 About the Asia Pacific Visitor Forecasts Produced for PATA by the Tourism Forecasting Unit of The Hong Kong Polytechnic University Objectives: Provide interval forecasts of quarterly and annual visitor arrivals to 32 destinations in Asia Pacific Provide annual interval forecasts of departures from key source markets Provide forecasts of tourism receipts for 25 destinations in Asia Pacific Provide tourism demand (income and price) elasticity estimates for destination policy-makers

4 Key Findings: Visitor arrivals to the Asia Pacific region will continue to grow at an average annual growth rate of 6.2% over the period reaching 660 million by Northeast Asia will maintain its dominant position in the collective inbound market of Asia Pacific, however its market share will decrease from 51% in 2012 to 48% by 2018 due to the expansion of Southeast Asia. China will continue to be the top inbound destination in Asia Pacific, peaking at 146 million visitors annually by the end of Hong Kong SAR will surpass the USA to be the second largest inbound destination in Asia Pacific in 2017.

5 Asia Pacific Visitor Arrivals % 5.3% 5.0% 6.6% % % 5.8% 5.4% 5.4% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 450 2% 400 0% % Total Arrivals to Asia Pacific Annual Growth Rate (%) -2% -4%

6 Market Shares (%) of Five Regions in Asia Pacific Visitor Arrivals % 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Americas Northeast Asia South Asia Southeast Asia Pacific

7 Top Five Fastest Growth Destinations (%) AAGR AAGR Rank AAGR Rank Thailand 27.5% 11.2% % 2 Myanmar 17.7% 32.4% % 1 Cambodia 13.2% 15.7% % 4 Bhutan 12.9% 12.3% % 7 Lao PDR 11.6% 17.7% % 3 Note: AAGR refers to the average annual growth rate, expressed as a percentage (%).

8 Top Destination China continues to be the most visited destination in Asia Pacific over the forecast period Forecasts of Annual Visitor Arrivals to China , by volume (mns)

9 Top Destination Hong Kong SAR is predicted to surpass the USA to become the 2 nd most visited destination in Asia Pacific from Arrivals to Hong Kong SAR Arrivals to the USA International visitor arrivals to the USA and Hong Kong SAR (in millions)

10 Departure forecasts from select origin markets

11 China Annual Forecasts of Departures % % % % 5% China Outbound to Asia Pacific Annual Growth Rate (%) 0%

12 Persons ('000) Persons ('000) Top Two Destinations of China Outbound Travel, 2018 o Upper Baseline Lower o Upper Baseline Lower Time Departures Forecasts from China to Hong Kong SAR Time Departures Forecasts from China to Thailand

13 India Annual Forecasts of Departures % 8% % 6.5 6% % 5.5 4% India Outbound to Asia Pacific Annual Growth Rate (%) 3%

14 Persons ('000) Persons ('000) Top Two Destinations of Indian Outbound Travel, 2018 o Upper Baseline Lower o Upper Baseline Lower Time Time Departures Forecasts from India to Thailand Departures Forecasts from India to Singapore

15 Russian Federation Annual Forecasts of Departures % 25% 14 23% % % % 15% % % 9% Russian Outbound to Asia Pacific Annual Growth Rate (%) 7%

16 Persons ('000) Persons ('000) Top Two Destinations of Russian Outbound Travel, 2018 o Upper Baseline Lower o Upper Baseline Lower Time Time Departures Forecasts from Russian Federation to Thailand Departures Forecasts from Russian Federation to China

17 Tourist Receipts Tourist Receipts of the Top Six Destinations (US$ billion) Receipts 2012 Rank Receipts 2015 Rank Receipts 2018 USA Rank China Macau SAR Australia Hong Kong SAR Thailand

18 Highlights for Southeast Asia destinations: Cambodia Indonesia Lao PDR Malaysia Myanmar Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam Note: Brunei is not included as the time-series data are still too short to produce reliable forecasts

19 International Visitor Arrivals to Southeast Asia, Total Arrivals to Southeast Asia 17% Annual Growth Rate (%) % % % 97 9% %

20 International Visitor Arrivals to Cambodia, % 20% % Total Arrivals to Cambodia Annual Growth Rate (%) 10% Note: Includes same-day visitors

21 International Visitor Arrivals to Indonesia, % % % % 7 3% Total Arrivals to Indonesia Annual Growth Rate (%) 2%

22 International Visitor Arrivals to Lao PDR, % 20% % % 2 5% % Total Arrivals to Lao PDR Annual Growth Rate (%)

23 International Visitor Arrivals to Malaysia, % 5% 4% 20 3% % 5 1% % Total Arrivals to Malaysia Annual Growth Rate (%)

24 International Visitor Arrivals to Myanmar, % 50% % % 20% % % Total Arrivals to Myanmar Annual Growth Rate (%) Notes: data exclude excursionists at land borders but include arrivals by air/land/sea port at Yangon entry points and air arrivals at the international airports of Mandalay, Bagan & Naypyitaw

25 International Visitor Arrivals to the Philippines, % 9% 8% 7% 6% 3 5% 2 4% 3% 1 2% 1% Total Arrivals to Philippines Annual Growth Rate (%) 0%

26 International Visitor Arrivals to Singapore, % % 8% 12 6% 8 4% 4 2% % Total Arrivals to Singapore Annual Growth Rate (%)

27 International Visitor Arrivals to Thailand, % 35% % 25% 20% 15% 10% 10 5% % Total Arrivals to Thailand Annual Growth Rate (%)

28 International Visitor Arrivals to Vietnam, % % 10% 6.6 8% 6 6% 4 4% 2 2% Total Arrivals to Vietnam Annual Growth Rate (%) 0%

29 Thank You Please return to this page regularly as updates will be posted as soon as they are finalised.

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