Lease Rate Digest. Issue 14A February 2014

Transcription

1 Issue 14A February 2014

2 IBA s Commercial Valuation Team is composed of: - Phil Seymour, President & Chief Operating Officer, Senior Certified ISTAT Appraiser: phil.seymour@ibagroup.com - Dr. Stuart Hatcher, Head of Valuations & Risk, Senior Certified ISTAT Appraiser: stuart.hatcher@ibagroup.com - Jonathan McDonald, Senior Analyst, Certified ISTAT Appraiser: jonathan.mcdonald@ibagroup.com - Alice Gondry, Senior Analyst, Certified ISTAT Appraiser: alice.gondry@ibagroup.com - Usman Ahmed, Senior Analyst: usman.ahmed@ibagroup.com - Kane Ray, Senior Analyst: kane.ray@ibagroup.com - Mike Yeomans, Senior Analyst: mike.yeomans@ibagroup.com - Hashen Hewawasam, Aviation Analyst: Hashen.Hewawasam@ibagroup.com - Kim Seward, Aviation Analyst: kim.seward@ibagroup.com - Huda Syed, Aviation Analyst: huda.syed@ibagroup.com - Carmen Wong, Aviation Analyst: carmen.wong@ibagroup.com - Dr. Shirley Brunton, Data Analyst: shirley.brunton@ibagroup.com IBA Group Limited IBA House 7 The Crescent Leatherhead Surrey, KT22 8DY United Kingdom Tel: +44 (0) Issue 14A / LRD (Feb. 2014)

3 Table of Contents... i Typical Monthly Lease Rental Definition... vi Market Reference Data... vii Section i: Lease Rate Comparison by Seating Capacity... i Seat Regional Jets... i Seat Regional Jets... i Seat Regional Jets... i Seat Commercial Jets... i Seat Commercial Jets... i Seat Commercial Jets... i Seat Commercial Jets... i Seat Commercial Jets... i Seat Commercial Jets... i Seat Commercial Jets... i Seat Commercial Jets... i.13 Section 1: Airbus Summary Information A300B4-600R A A A A Issue 14A / LRD (Feb. 2014) i

4 Section 1: Airbus (continued) A A A A A XWB A A A A A Section 2: AvCraft Summary Information Dornier 328JET Section 3: BAE SYSTEMS Summary Information Avro RJ Avro RJ BAe BAe BAe Issue 14A / LRD (Feb. 2014) ii

5 Section 4: Boeing Summary Information ER I ER ER ER LR ER Issue 14A / LRD (Feb. 2014) iii

6 Section 5: Bombardier Summary Information CRJ100/200/ CRJ CRJ CRJ Section 6: Embraer Summary Information ERJ ERJ ERJ Embraer Embraer Embraer Embraer Section 7: Fokker Summary Information Fokker Fokker Issue 14A / LRD (Feb. 2014) iv

7 Section 8: McDonnell Douglas Summary Information MD MD MD MD Section 9: Sukhoi Summary Information SSJ B Issue 14A / LRD (Feb. 2014) v

8 Typical Monthly Lease Rental (TMLR) The total monetary value of a lease transaction can vary significantly depending on such factors as the operator and its credit risk, length of term of the lease or aircraft type involved, to name a few. As such, the high and low values for Typical Monthly Lease Rental published in this digest are meant as indicative and have been calculated in accordance with the definition below. In addition, IBA s own database of lease transactions and other general market information has been used as a guide in developing the rates published here. For each aircraft type and year of build, a range of typical monthly rental rates is shown, bracketed by high and low values. Along with the lease rental values, a graphical representation of the data is also included for easy comparison between similar types based on seating capacity. These charts show the average values for the entire build cycle of each aircraft type. It should be noted that each point on the line represents the average lease rate for a specific year of delivery of an aircraft type and NOT a historical indication of lease rates. Definition The lease transaction is considered to be "arm s length" between a willing lessor and a willing lessee for a single aircraft transaction of a medium term lease of five years duration with no extension or early termination options. The lessee is considered to be a medium-risk credit, paying cash or cash equivalent deposits in the amount of three months rental with no history of early returns or defaults. Further, the lessee pays full maintenance reserves for all aspects of the aircraft, i.e. "D" Check (or equivalent), engine refurbishment, engine life limited parts, landing gear and auxiliary power unit. The lessor is a typical operating lessor specialising in commercial jet aircraft with costs of funding typical of others in its field of expertise. Funding for aircraft transactions are structured as non-recourse to the lessor (recourse to the aircraft only) and has been obtained without guarantees or assistance from any parent or holding company with a better or worse credit rating than the lessor. The lessor has had the aircraft returned from a previous lessee (if not new) without major faults or defects, with no rework required and without any down-time between leases. Issue 14A / LRD (Feb. 2014) vi

9 The aircraft has been purchased new from the manufacturer and owned or held by the lessor since new. The original purchase price was typical of similar aircraft purchases for blocks of ten or fewer aircraft, with no special concessions or add-on services provided by the manufacturer; it is of a typical specification and configuration for its type and intended operation. The aircraft will be flown in an operation that is typical of its intended role in terms of utilisation and hour:cycle ratio, etc. All lease rentals are paid monthly in advance in cash and are for the lease of the aircraft alone, with no recovery of transfer costs, modifications or previous arrears etc. Market Reference Data Information regarding general characteristics of the aircraft is given for comparison purposes at the beginning of each section. Every effort has been made to convey correct technical data and whenever possible, the information shown in the Lease Rate Digest has been sourced from the manufacturer. Issue 14A / LRD (Feb. 2014) vii

10 300+ Seat Commercial Jets Average Typical Monthly Lease Rental; Based on Original Year of Aircraft Delivery $1,950 $1,750 Section i: Lease Rate Comparison by Seating Capacity A Average Monthly Lease Rate (US$ '000) $1,550 $1,350 $1,150 $950 $750 $550 $350 $150 '89 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 Year of Delivery Issue 14A / LRD (February. 2014) IBA Group Limited, IBA House 7 The Crescent, Leatherhead Surrey KT22 8DY, UK Page i.13

11 Airbus Summary Information First Delivery Total Net Orders Backlog Operators * Current Passenger Fleet Currently Owned Average Fleet Age Seats, Typical Configuration MTOW, Standard MTOW, Optional Range, Standard Range, Optional 8,000 nm - Engine Options Rolls-Royce Manufacturer & Trent 900 Engine Variant(s) Engine Alliance GP7200 Average Utilisation ** Flight Hours, Prev. 12 months 4,185 FH Cycles, Prev. 12 months 437 cycles Average Flight Time 9.58 FH/cycle High-Time Utilisation ** Total Flight Hours 12,068 FH Total Cycles 1,525 cycles List Price (2014) Low, US$ High, US$ $414.4 * Based on current fleet & firm orders ** As of 2Q 2012 A October, aircraft 200 aircraft 15 operators 124 aircraft 69% 2.4 years 555 seats 1,235,000 lb - Section 1: Airbus Issue 14A / LRD (February. 2014) IBA Group Limited, IBA House 7 The Crescent, Leatherhead Surrey KT22 8DY, UK Page 1.6

12 Section 1: Airbus Typical Monthly Lease Rental Year of Delivery A A A A A Low (US$) High (US$) Low (US$) High (US$) Low (US$) High (US$) Low (US$) High (US$) Low (US$) High (US$) 2014 $1,750,000 $1,950, $1,630,000 $1,830, $1,530,000 $1,730, $1,440,000 $1,640, $1,350,000 $1,550, $1,280,000 $1,480, $1,220,000 $1,420, $1,150,000 $1,350, Issue 14A / LRD (February. 2014) IBA Group Limited, IBA House 7 The Crescent, Leatherhead Surrey KT22 8DY, UK Page 1.9