Climatic situation in Poland Focus to Project area Lusatian Neisse. Bartłomiej Miszuk, Irena Otop

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1 Climatic situation in Poland Focus to Project area Lusatian Neisse Bartłomiej Miszuk, Irena Otop

2 Factors determining the climate of the Lower Silesia astrophysical geographic circulation antropogenic solar activity day lenght sun angle location (continent-ocean) terrain relief land use western circulation dominating polar air mass land-use changes modification of the composition of the atmosphere Source: M. Sobik, Klimat,

3 Climatic regions and zones in the Lower Silesia (on the basis of the classifications of A. Woś and A. Schmuck) Climatic zones in the Lower Silesia (according to A. Schmuck s classification): a warm ( m a.s.l.) b mild warm ( m a.s.l.) c mild cold ( m a.s.l.) d cold ( m a.s.l.) e very cold (>1000 m a.s.l.) 3

4 Mean values of air temperature in Poland and in the region of Lower Silesia on the basis of the meteorological data from the period Source: H. Lorenc (ed.), Atlas Klimatu Polski, IMGW, 2005 Source: Opracowanie ekofizjograficzne dla Województwa Dolnośląskiego, IMGW,

5 Thermal classification for selected meteorological stations in comparison to the period (according to H. Lorenc s classification) t śr mean multiannual air temperature t z mean air temperature of a given year Source: Biuletyn PSHM-rok 2011, IMGW,

6 Maximal values of air temperature at the selected meteorological stations of the IMGW-PIB and spatial variability of air temperature on 31 July 1994 Source: Z. Ustrnul, D. Czekierda, Atlas ekstremalnych zjawisk meteorologicznych oraz sytuacji synoptycznych w Polsce 6

7 Spatial variablity of mean air temperature and mean temperature anomaly in July 2010 in comparison to the period Source: Biuletyn PSHM-lipiec 2010, IMGW,

8 Values of air temperature at the selected meteorological stations in July 2010 and synoptic situation in Europe on 20 July 2010 Source: Biuletyn PSHM-lipiec 2010, IMGW, 2010 Source: wetterzentrale.de 8

9 Minimal values of air temperature at the selected meteorological stations of the IMGW-PIB and spatial variability of air temperature on 09 February 1956 Source: Z. Ustrnul, D. Czekierda, Atlas ekstremalnych zjawisk meteorologicznych oraz sytuacji synoptycznych w Polsce 9

10 Spatial variablity of mean air temperature and mean temperature anomaly in December 2010 in comparison to the period Source: Biuletyn PSHM-grudzień 2010, IMGW,

11 Values of air temperature at the selected meteorological stations in December 2010 and synoptic situation in Europe on 01 December 2010 Source: wetterzentrale.de Source: Biuletyn PSHM-grudzień 2010, IMGW,

12 Thermal anomaly in Poland in 2010 Source: Biuletyn PSHM-rok 2010, IMGW,

13 Trend index for the duration of the vegetative period and thermal winter on the Śnieżka Mtn. for the period Source: M. Dubicka, B. Głowicki, Ekoklimat Karkonoszy w przekroju wieloletnim w świetle wskaźników kompleksowych,

14 Duration and the dates of beginning the end of the vegetative period and thermal winter on the Śnieżka Mtn. for the period Source: M. Dubicka, B. Głowicki, Ekoklimat Karkonoszy w przekroju wieloletnim w świetle wskaźników kompleksowych,

15 Values of maximal (T max ), mean (T śr ) and minimal (T min ) air temperature and their trend estimation on the Śnieżka Mtn. for the period 15

16 Values of air temperature and their trend estimation on the Śnieżka Mtn. for the period (12-month moving average) 16

17 Trend index for variability of mean annual air temperature (25-years moving average) on the Śnieżka Mtn. for the period 17

18 Predicted changes of the Spring and Autumn mean air temperature dependent on the selected emission scenarios for the period, in comparison to the period, on the basis of the ECHAM5 model (the results of the KLIMAT project) Source: Wpływ zmian klimatu na środowisko, gospodarkę i społeczeństwo, IMGW-PIB,

19 Predicted changes of the Winter and Summer mean air temperature dependent on the selected emission scenarios for the period, in comparison to the period, on the basis of the ECHAM5 model (the results of the KLIMAT project) Source: Wpływ zmian klimatu na środowisko, gospodarkę i społeczeństwo, IMGW-PIB,

20 Mean annual precipitation totals ( ), mean monthly precipitation and annual precipitation totals in particular years of the period Source: H. Lorenc (ed.), Atlas klimatu Polski, IMGW, 2005 Source: Wpływ zmian klimatu na środowisko, gospodarkę i społeczeństwo, IMGW-PIB,

21 Classification of precipitation for selected meteorological stations in comparison to the period (according to Kaczorowska s classification) Source: Biuletyn PSHM-rok 2011, IMGW,

22 Spatial variability of daily precipitation in Poland on 06 July 1997 and precipitation totals in July 1997 at the selected meteorologcal stations IMGW-PIB station R [mm] Kamienica 482,2 Międzygórze 453,5 Stronie Śląskie 366,9 Bielice 365,7 Lądek Zdrój 331,5 Bolesławów 316,2 Pielgrzymów 314,4 Głuchołazy 306,5 Source: H. Lorenc (ed.), Atlas klimatu Polski, IMGW,

23 Monthly precipitation totals in May 2010 and its comparison to the mean multiannual precipitation in May for the period Source: Biuletyn PSHM-maj 2010, IMGW,

24 Precipitation [mm] Climatic situation in Poland Focus to Project area Lusatian Neisse Monthly precipitation totals in May in the period at the Istebna-Stecówka station

25 Daily precipitation [mm] Climatic situation in Poland Focus to Project area Lusatian Neisse Daily precipitation totals in May 2010 at the selected meteorological stations Szumirad Turawa Bielice 25

26 Number of days with precipitation of at least 30 mm and 50 mm in May and June 2010 and precipitation totals in May 2010 in the Odra River Basin and the in the Odra River Basin 26

27 Monthly precipitation totals and their anomaly in August 2010 in comparison to the period Source: Biuletyn PSHM-maj 2010, IMGW,

28 Daily precipitation [mm] Climatic situation in Poland Focus to Project area Lusatian Neisse Daily precipitation totals on 07 August 2010 at the selected meteorological stations; daily pracipitation totals in August 2010 at the selected meteorological stations; the course of hourly precipitation on 07 August 2010 at the Bogatynia station IMGW-PIB station R [mm] Bogatynia 160, Świecie 125, Sieniawka 110,8 Leśna 110, Złotniki Lubańskie 102,0 0 Świeradów Zdrój 101,2 Bogatynia Świecie Sieniawka Wyszków 96,0 Bierna 86,2 Jakuszyce 88,8 Pławna 83,9 Source: Wezbranie w zlewni Nysy Łużyckiej 7-10 sierpnia 2010 r.,

29 Precipitation [mm] Precipitation [mm] Climatic situation in Poland Focus to Project area Lusatian Neisse Maximal daily precipitation and monthly precipitation totals for August in the period at the Bogatynia station

30 Drought events in Poland in the period;precipitation anomaly in the Upper and the Middle Odra River Basin in the hydrological year of 2003, in comparison to mean precipitation totals in the period 30

31 Precipitation anomaly in the Upper and the Middle Odra River Basin in the warm season (V-X) and during selected months of 2003, in comparison to the mean precipitation totals for the period May-October 2003 February 2003 June 2003 August

32 Precipitation anomaly in May and July 2006 in comparison to mean monthly precipitation totals for May and July in the period; mean air temperature (a), thermal anomaly (b), precipitation totals (c) and precipitation anomaly (d) in July 2006 May July Source: H. Lorenc, Susza w Polsce 2006 rok,

33 Monthly precipitation in November 2011 and its comparison to the mean multiannual precipitation in November for the period Source: Biuletyn PSHM-listopad 2011, IMGW,

34 Predicted changes of the Spring and Autumn precipitation totals dependent on the selected emission scenarios for the period, in comparison to the period, on the basis of the ECHAM5 model (the results of the KLIMAT project) Source: Wpływ zmian klimatu na środowisko, gospodarkę i społeczeństwo, IMGW-PIB,

35 Predicted changes of the Winter and Summer precipitation totals dependent on the selected emission scenarios for the period, in comparison to the period, on the basis of the ECHAM5 model (the results of the KLIMAT project) Source: Wpływ zmian klimatu na środowisko, gospodarkę i społeczeństwo, IMGW-PIB,

36 Conclusions 1. The climate of the Lower Silesia is affected by various factors which make the region variable from the climatological point of view. It regards especially specific terrain morphology which has a significant influence on the climate features in this region; 2. Variety of climatic conditions have a great importance in the context of water resources. It concerns especially extreme weather events (hot and cold waves, heavy precipitation, droughts) which often occur in the region considered in the NEYMO project; 3. Predicted climate changes as well as its tendency observed on the basis of the multiannual data suggest that further activities should be udertaken in order to obtain all necessary data, which could be useful for proper assessment of the water recources potential and the information connected with the adaptation of the results of the project for the social-economic aspects. 36

37 Thank you for your attention Bartłomiej Miszuk, Irena Otop, Institute of Meteorology and Water Management National Research Institute Wrocław Branch Wrocław, ul.: Parkowa 30 Tel Fax

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