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1 ARIDE Assessment of the Regional Impact of Droughts in Europe Report No. 12 Software Development December 2000 Institute of Hydrology, University of Freiburg
2 Report No. 12 Software Development Siegfried Demuth & Kerstin Stahl with contributions from: Alvarez, Javier (CEDEX) Estrela, Teodoro (CEDEX) Gustard, Alan (CEH) Hisdal, Hege (UiO) Lanen van, Henny (WAU) Peters, Elisabeth (WAU) Rees, Gwyn (CEH) Santos, Maria-Joao (INAG) Tallaksen, Lena (UiO) Veríssimo, Raquel (INAG) Zaidman, Maxine (CEH) Report to the ARIDE project No.12: Supplement to the Plan of the ARIDE Workprogramme Institute of Hydrology, University of Freiburg, Fahnenbergplatz Freiburg, Germany.
3 Contents 1 Introduction 1 2 Software Development University of Oslo (UiO) Instituto da Agua (INAG) Centre for Hydrology and Ecology (CEH) Freiburg University (IHF) Wageningen University (WAU) 9 3 Remarks 10
4
5 1 Introduction Within the ARIDE project, several software applications were developed and are available for further exploitation. The software development described is part of a software strategy plan, which has been defined in the Work Programme of the ARIDE project. The partners consider the software development as stage 1 out of 5 stages, as no budget was allocated to the ARIDE consortium to develop software in a commercial way. Stage 1 includes a research and development project with model development on PC and workstation platforms. In chapter 2 the software development is described in a table summarising the topics, the technical information and the potential of further exploitation. The software development described in the report aims at: (1) event definition (meteorological, streamflow), (2) statistical test for persistency and trend, (3) EOF (Empirical Orthogonal Function) analysis, (4) Regional Drought Distribution Model, (5) Visualisation and Drought Monitoring Software, (6) Colour coded river network visualisation, (7) Simulation of daily recharges. 2 Software Development 2.1 University of Oslo (UiO) A) Threshold level approach for drought definition from precipitation and streamflow series Event Definition Statistical analysis of meteorological and streamflow drought events using a set of programs which includes: i) calculation of percentiles from time series ii) selection of drought events for different time resolutions (daily or monthly) and seasons iii) calculation of drought parameters statistics (drought duration, deficit volume, etc.) from the sample of drought events At site drought parameters Development stage Stage 1 Routines developed and tested for two regions; the Nordic countries and the Iberian Peninsula Fortran and Pascal distribution PC, Unix Water Authorities, Hydropower companies, Consultancies Frequency analysis and hydrological design Conversion of the scripts to a set of programs with a userfriendly interface. 1
6 B) Persistency and trend analysis of annual drought parameter series 2.2 Initial Time Series Analysis Statistical test for persistency and trend Test statistics Development stage Stage 1-2 Tests implemented in the general time series analysis package of the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE) Fortran distribution Unix Water Authorities Decision making for long term drought management Climate change studies Conversion of the scripts to a stand-alone program with a user-friendly interface. C) Empirical Orthogonal Function calculation 2.3 Regional Drought Characteristics EOF-analysis Empirical orthogonal functions, weight coefficients, summary statistics Development stage Stage 1 Fortran (The main routines in the program have been developed at Argonne National Laboratory, France (for applications /scripts) distribution Unix Water Authorities and Research Institutes Data analyses of large data sets Conversion of the scripts to a program with a userfriendly interface. 2
7 D) Drought severity area frequency curves Development stage Stage 1 distribution 2.3 Regional Drought Characteristics Modelling and calculation of drought severity-areafrequency curves Severity-area-frequency curves Fortran Splus PC/Unix Water Authorities and Research Institutes To calculate return levels of droughts Conversion of the scripts to a program with a userfriendly interface. 3
8 2.2 Instituto da Agua (INAG) A) Regional Drought Distribution Model 2.4 Regional Drought Distribution Model Determination of drought characteristics in a region using the regional drought distribution model. Modules: - Skewness correction - Calculation of statistical parameters - Regional replicates simulation - Regional drought calculation - Sequential droughts calculation - Severity-area-frequency curves param. calculation Evaluation of the return period of regional droughts Development stage Stage 3 Software is tested for European regions, precipitation and streamflow and different calculation procedures. VisualBasic distribution PC R&D Institutions and Water Authorities Regional drought incidence and severity appraisal Software is complete for distribution 4
9 2.3 Centre for Ecology and Hydrology (CEH) A) Electronic Atlas for Visualisation of Streamflow Drought ElectrA 3.3 Flow Visualisation Development stage To illustrate the changing spatial patterns of European droughts by displaying screen images of streamflow conditions over Europe. An electronic atlas called ElectrA. The atlas is capable of showing, in the form of digital maps, how drought conditions were distributed across Europe in past years. Percentage flow exceedance (derived using a 31-day moving window method) is used as the drought variable i.e. a flow exceedance of 90 % is equivalent to the Q90 flow. The atlas has a full Graphical User Interface (GUI). This allows the user to select which data to display in map format, change the colour scale used to display the data, replay a series of maps as an animation, to print and save maps/animations. A basic help facility is also provided Application developed and tested. AVS/Express Visualisation Edition PC or UNIX distribution Water Authorities, Environment Agencies Hydrological Design, decision making for actions in a drought situation. Making predictions about future spatial development of drought, given onset of drought condition. Identifying regions vulnerable to drought, based on past frequency of drought in that area Additional development in AVS/Express Developer Edition software would allow the functionality of the atlas to be improved and would allow the system to be saved as a stand-alone application. 5
10 B) Climate Visualisation System 3.3 Flow Visualisation Development stage To illustrate the changing spatial patterns of European droughts by displaying screen images of climatic conditions (rainfall and temperature) over Europe. A visualisation system which is able to display, as digital maps, pan-european distribution of monthly average rainfall and temperature in past years. The system has a Graphical User Interface (GUI), which allows the user to select which data to display or to replay a series of maps as an animation. Application developed and tested. AVS/Express Visualisation Edition PC or UNIX Water authorities, environment agencies Hydrological design, decision making for actions in a drought situation. distribution Additional development in AVS/Express Developer Edition software would allow the system to be saved as a stand-alone executable. 6
11 C) Near Real Time Monitoring System 5.3 Near Real Time Monitoring of droughts Development stage distribution To assess the technical feasibility of developing a European drought monitoring system. Pilot software capable of dealing with automatic transfer of near real-time river level and flow data from a variety of sources across Europe. Feasibility assessment Data transfer software implemented Visual Basic v6 Microsoft Access RDBMS for Windows ORACLE RDBMS v8.1 (UNIX) incl. SQL*Connect ODBC (32 bit) Novell GroupWise v5.5 (PC) IBM compatible PC (Pentium, 32 MB RAM) Sun SPARC2 TCP/IP (Telnet, , WWW) Pilot system: N/A Prospective system: Policy makers at EU level; water resource managers and planners at national & sub-national level; general public. Pilot system: Assessment Prospective system: Operational drought monitoring tool Substantial investment required to establish operational near real-time data transfer from hydrometric agencies throughout Europe and develop robust systems for data processing and display. 7
12 2.4 Freiburg University (IHF) A) Drought vulnerability visualisation Development stage distribution 5.1. Regional drought estimation using a river network model Estimation of drought vulnerability along a river network The expected time until drought onset, if streamflow is at a mean level and dry weather would persist, can be displayed colour coded along the river. Stage 1 in progress: Method development and test for a region in Germany. SPANS GIS system PC Water Authorities Hydrological Design, decision making for actions in drought situation Conversion of the scripts to a stand-alone program or into a more commonly used GIS such as ArcView. Creating the application for the particular region Data migration (river network/basin properties/etc.) Regionalisation of the relevant parameters. 8
13 2.5 Wageningen University (WAU) A) Recharge simulation Development stage distribution 4.1 Groundwater Droughts derived from precipitation recharge Simulation of daily recharge for current conditions and for scenario analysis Time series of daily, monthly and annual recharge for a specific site with particular meteorological, soil and land use conditions Stage 1 in progress: Program developed and tested for catchments in The Netherlands, Spain and Poland. Fortran PC Water Authorities, Consultants, Research institutes Groundwater management, pro-active monitoring of drought situations, and environmental impact assessment Extension of the program with a user-friendly interface and pre- and postprocessing programmes B) Simulation of groundwater level and discharge 4.2 Groundwater Droughts derived from groundwater levels and groundwater discharge Simulation of 10-day or monthly groundwater levels and groundwater discharge for current conditions and for scenario analysis Time series of : Spatially distributed groundwater levels Groundwater discharge along stretches of a river network Development stage Stage 1 in progress: Models developed and tested for catchments in The Netherlands, Spain and UK Kingdom. language distribution Modflow-GMS, Microfem PC, Alpha Water Authorities, Consultants, Research institutes Groundwater management, pro-active monitoring of drought situations, environmental impact assessment Models will not commercially be distributed. Too specific skills needed. 9
14 3 Conclusion Currently there are no formal agreements between the partners or third partners for licensing the software to EU member states and providing a software support to purchasers. However, each organisation in the partnership has developed commercial links for exploiting research and development and considers the dissemination of research and development through software to be a high priority for a subsequent phase of the work. 10
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