An innovative approach to Floods and Fire Risk Assessment and Management: the FLIRE Project

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1 8 th International Conference of EWRA Water Resources Management in an Interdisciplinary and Changing Context June 2013, Porto, Portugal An innovative approach to Floods and Fire Risk Assessment and Management: the FLIRE Project Chrysoula Papathanasiou, Christos Makropoulos and Maria Mimikou National Technical University of Athens School of Civil Engineers Laboratory of Hydrology and Water Resources Management

2 4 FLIRE: Floods & Fire Risk Assessment and Management Study area: Eastern Attica, Greece Duration: 3 years (01/10/ /09/2015) Total budget: % EC co-funding: Coordinating Beneficiary: National Technical University of Athens (Laboratory of Hydrology & Water Resources Management) Associated Beneficiaries: Imperial College London Research Institute for Geo-Hydrological Protection, Italian National Research Council National Observatory of Athens ALGOSYSTEMS S.A. Foundation for Research and Technology-Hellas (Institute of applied and computational Mathematics)

3 5 Aim and objectives of the Project Floods and forest fires are two of the most frequent and devastating natural disasters that significantly affect human lives and the environment. Traditionally, research on floods and fires is performed independently, through separate systems that collect and properly process relevant information and produce individual modelling results (individual risk assessment). However, this approach overlooks two significant facts: 1. the field data required in both cases are essentially the same 2. these phenomena are tightly interrelated A combined approach in flood and fire risk management would achieve better, more realistic results at a decreased cost. FLIRE aims to achieve a combined, effective and robust risk assessment and management of both flash floods and forest fires. Development of a DSS that will operate at near-real time, incorporate EWSs and support decisions for integrated flood and forest fire management

4 Characteristics of the study area General characteristics Eastern Attica region Extends over 123 km 2 Close to Athens (35% of country s population) Typical Mediterranean area with mixed land uses Urbanization + floods + fires Ecological degradation Hydrometeorological regime Typically Mediterranean climate: hot dry summers and cool winters Rainfall totals in general low (annual mean ~400mm) Annual temperature 7 C - 32 C (mean winter T ~10 C / mean summer T ~28 C)

5 Characteristics of the study area Typical Mediterranean periurban area particularly prone to fires Forests ~ 30% Arable soils and grasslands (~50%) [mainly located upstream] Urban cells (~20%) [located downstream] Dominant vegetation evergreenbroadleaved shrublands, conifers (mainly Aleppo pine) and sclerophyllous vegetation All of these species are very flammable and prone to forest fires

6 Characteristics of the study area Typical Mediterranean periurban area particularly prone to floods Rapid and unorganized urbanization (last 30 years) Frequent large scale forest fires (1995, 1998, 2005, 2007, 2009, 2011, 2012 ) devastated the upstream vulnerable forests of the area upper soil layers affected Particular geomorphological and geological conditions (steep upstream slopes, dense upstream hydrographic network, erodible soil etc) erosion and increased sediment loads Prolonged dry periods (especially during the summer / expected to be intensified based on cc scenarios) particularly prone to flash floods

7 NTUA - Infrastructure Hydrological Observatory of Athens (HOA) 11 Hydrometeorological stations record: precipitation (main and secondary raingauge), temperature (min, mean and max), relative humidity (%), evaporation, air pressure, wind speed, gust and direction, solar radiation, net radiation and sunshine duration soil moisture Stand-alone stations: 3 streamflow gauges 3 raingauges Operates since min temporal resolution Recorded data are stored in databases (datasets retrieved every 2h max / database updated every 10min) Timeseries and applications (rainfall reports, latest measurements, diagrams, surface and variable charts, bioclimatic maps etc) available at

8 Gauging in the study area NOA raingauges HOA stream flowgauges HOA raingauges HOA meteorological stations 3 streamflow gauges (currently) 5 raingauges 1 meteorological station (Penteli station is also close) X-Basin (in-situ hydrological measurements since 2003)

9 Interaction of Core Actions Catchment Hydrological Modelling Urban Flood Modelling Planning Tool for Flood Management Flood Risk Assessment DSS Warning(s) Forest Fire Risk Assessment and Mitigation Planning Short-term Weather Forecasting

10 Flood modelling Catchment Hydrological Modelling Urban Flood Modelling Flood Risk Assessment Flood Hazard maps Flood Risk maps Scenario database Catchment modelling HEC-HMS MISDc Urban modelling SWMM

11 HEC-HMS Flood modelling Results MISDc Computed Peak: 52.3m 3 /s Observed Peak: m 3 /s Computed Peak: 52.3m 3 /s Observed Peak: m 3 /s

12 Flood modelling (on-line) Catchment Hydrological Modelling Urban Flood Modelling Flood Risk Assessment Flood Hazard maps Flood Risk maps Scenario database (CBR approach) Source: Monitor II Project Pattern recognition algorithm

13 Flood modelling (off-line) Planning Tool for Flood Management Multi-objective optimization algorithm Structural & non-structural measures Flood Scenarios Optimization algorithm Fire Scenarios Urban Development Modelling Scenarios of: Low severity Medium severity High severity

14 Fire modelling Forest Fire Risk Assessment and Mitigation Planning Setting up of a fire model for the area Forest fire risk assessment module Forest fire propagation (behavior) module (G-FMIS) Fuel types in the study area 5 Mediterranean grasslands 10 Mediterranean shrublands (sclerophylous) 14 Shrublands in Mediterranean sclerophylous forests 24 Conifer plantations Forest Fuels Draft Map (ArcFuel Classification)

15 Weather Forecasting Short-term Weather Forecasting Forecasts (at 1hr interval/24h ahead) Use of/merging with weather observations from surface weather stations Three nested grids: Grid 1 : 24-km horizontal grid increment Grid 2 : 8-km horizontal grid increment Grid 3 : 2-km horizontal grid increment P arnitha Grid 2 Korinthian Gulf P enteli Hymettus 4 Saronic Gulf Grid 1

16 DSS Conceptual Design APIs, (Google, Openlayers, etc) Map coverages, Background maps Flood risk assessment (Action B.3) Web Browser (Visualization) Flood Scenarios (Database) Web Server (service) Request Maps description Scenario Matching Tool (service) Request Maps Fire Modeling Component (service) Early Flood Warning System (EFWS) (service) Near Real-time Flood Risk System Management (EFWS) Tool Early Fire Warning System (EFiWS) (service) Near Real-time Forest Fire Risk Assessment and Management Tool Weather Information Management Tool (WIMT) (service) Forest fire risk assessment and mitigation planning (Action B.4) Short-term weather forecasting (Action B.5)

17 DSS Functionality Floods Storm warnings 48 & 24 hours ahead. Development of flood scenarios (and their spatial extent) with a confidence level, 24 hours ahead and triggering of warnings (worst case/most probable). Additional «smart» alerts in the 24-hour ahead to 1-hour ahead period, using ground observations (HOA, NOA) for the whole Attica region and the latest weather forecast. Warnings 30 min ahead, based on runoff measurements in the basin. Fires Near-real time fire risk estimation Estimation of fire expansion given ignition point from the user Development of «what-if» scenarios, given the weather forecast and the ignition point from the user.

18 DSS Functionality Floods-Fires Interaction Updating of flood models after the occurrence of a fire event (semi-automated) (Offline) tools for flood protection design (incl. land use changes/ reforestations etc.) Material and tools for the application of the EU Floods Directive 2007/60.

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