Future of urban mobility

Transcription

1 Future of urban mobility CityBoom: Booming cities - Blooming cities?! Results of global Arthur D. Little study on urban mobility and challenges for Brussels Ralf BARON & François-Joseph VAN AUDENHOVE Partners, Arthur D. Little Realty 2012, UPSI-BVS, Brussels, May 23 th 2012 Arthur D. Little Benelux sa/nv Avenue de Tervurenlaan 270 B Brussels Belgium vanaudenhove.f@adlittle.com baron.ralf@adlittle.com

2 Urban mobility is a global societal challenge Urban mobility 2050 A B C Share of urban population in 2050? 60% 70% 80% Ecological Footprint in 2050? 10% 13% 17% Increase of time spend in congestions? x2 x3 x4 Global annual invest (Euro) in 2050? 530bn 660bn 830bn 2

3 1 Arthur D. Little global study on urban mobility 2 Urban mobility challenges for Brussels 3

4 Future of Urban Mobility The future will be urban but urban mobility systems are on their way to breakdown Planet Ecological footprint urban mobility People Delay hours due to congestions Profit Urban mobility investment need % of the planet s biocapacities used 18% 15% 12% 9% 6% 3% 0% 3,7% 5,0% 6,7% 8,9% 11,4% 14,2% 17,3% Delay hours per person p.a ,5 50,9 58,4 67,8 78,8 91,5 106, Bn EUR Source: Stockholm Environment Institute, US Census Bureau, UN Population Division, Schäfer/ Victor 2000, Siemens, Bureau of Transport Statistics, Arthur D. Little 4

5 Future of Urban Mobility Within this context, Arthur D. Little has conducted a global study among 66 cities in order to define the key mobility challenges to be faced by cities tomorrow What are the key mobility challenges to be faced by cities tomorrow? What are the key solutions under development to cope with these challenges? What are the key levers for value chain actors (city top executives and solutions providers) to shape the future towards networked and multimodal urban mobility systems? Mobility maturity Mobility Performance Urban Mobility Index: 11 criteria Share of public transport, walking and cycling in modal split Number of shared cars Number of shared bikes Penetration rate of smart cards Vision/ strategy for future mobility Average travel speed Mean travel time to work Number of fatalities Registered vehicles Transport related CO 2 emission Satisfaction with transport 5

6 The overall results indicate that the majority of cities are badly equipped to cope with the challenges ahead Global Average 64.4 Vienna Paris Goteborg Stockholm 15% London Amsterdam Hong Kong Rome Lisbon Milan Brussels Cologne Frankfurt Cambridge Madrid Barcelona Berlin Zurich Above average performance 64% Sample average Athens Average performance 21% Below average performance Western Europe Average Urban Mobility Performance Index Source: Arthur D. Little Urban Mobility Index 6

7 Future of Urban Mobility The root cause for poor performance is a lack of innovation Broad range of business models and technologies readily available Comprehensive review of 36 urban mobility business models reveals sufficient availability of solutions to address the pressing mobility challenges Analysis of 39 key mobility technologies reveals a broad range of early and emerging technologies with significant potential to enable transformation to high performance urban mobility systems Innovation hostility key barrier for evolution of urban mobility systems Current mobility systems do not adapt to changing demands, combine single steps from a value chain to a new system, learn from other systems Current mobility systems do not bring together key players to work jointly on solutions and rarely provide for a rewarding environment for investors Source: Arthur D. Little Urban Mobility Index 7

8 maturity Future of Urban Mobility In total three strategic imperatives were identified for urban mobility depending on cities level of maturity and share of public transport Establish sustainable core: invest in sustainable urban mobility infrastructure Rethink the system: shape political agenda towards shift to public & sustainability Network the system: integration of different market players and networking of citizens Manila Bangalore Dubai Emerging Emerging cities with partly underdeveloped mobility systems Brussels Washington Lahore Individual Mature cities with high proportion of registered vehicles Boston Stockholm Hongkong Public Mature cities with high share of public transport / walking & cycling Features: innovative thinking seamless integration with one key for citizens high convenience sharing concepts Networked mobility Integration of all modes to reduce share of individual motorized transport time Source: Arthur D. Little 8

9 Illustration City of Stuttgart: 4 core applications areas Integration of players & services Smart Mobility Smart Energy Smart Business Smart City Services & Tourism Dimension Ladesäulen Critical implementation challenges Achieving the critical mass of customers/citizens: Cooperation with public transport associations & companies essential Killer application needed - Integrated mobility - M-Commerce & loyalty - Value adding city services Multi project coordination Technological, organizational (PPP) & legal complexity Implementation of an integrated payment & bonus program Multilocal implementation & trans regional integration Source: Arthur D. Little 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Integration Communication towards politics: Political support for realization needed 9

10 Illustration City of Stuttgart: Numerous stakeholders involved Stakeholder landscape mobility+ Critical implementation challenges Municipalities Further public sector Districts Who is in lead? Rational concepts for potential partners? Product & service portfolio of partners? Public transport Operating company/jv Further mobility & technology providers Options for temporal sequence of integration of partners? Contribution of each partner? Shared services regarding payment & secondary processes? Buildup and organization operating company? Transport associations Financial services Telecommunication Integration of further city services? Role of e-mobility and further means of transport (taxi, ferry etc.)? Source: Arthur D. Little 10

11 Illustration City of Vienna: Starting with integrated mobility, 50% of all urban citizens will be reached until 2015 Smart City Vienna Concept Big Bang Implementation Smart Mobility Change to WLB Change to suburban train Suburban train Change to subway Change to tram Change to bus Change to tram Lunch break City Bike Core Service Potential Customers: Citizens Smart City Services Touristic attractions Museums, theaters, operas Universities, Schools Libraries Smart Business Smart Living Entertainment, sports Shops, self-service machines Access control in housing areas Sports facilities, event tickets Cafés, restaurants Company access control Minor repairs Energy billing Value adding Services 50% of Vienna s Citizens until 2015 Scalable business model Source: Wiener Stadtwerke, Arthur D. Little 11

12 1 Arthur D. Little global study on urban mobility 2 Urban mobility challenges for Brussels 12

13 Mobility is a key challenge facing urban regions such as Brussels, particularly given evolving mobility needs associated with increasing urban population Mobility in Brussels Local Public Transport use in Brussels (in millions trips) 1 Mobility needs are increasing: Increasing number of trips/day Use of local public transport in Brussels almost doubled (+94%) over the last 11 years Mobility needs are evolving: Changing lifestyle toward use of more sustainable transport and mix of transport modes # trips (Mio) From 170k to 330k trips p.a. (+94%in 11 years) Increase of short distance travels Mobility challenges are ahead of us given further increase of urban population expected in the years to come (1.200k expected in 2015) Moreover, low mobility performances reduce attractiveness for companies to settle in Brussels, thereby influencing real estate rentability Source: Arthur D. Little; (1) Annual activity reports 2011 of STIB (includes Metro, Tramways and buses) 13

14 Brussels A mid performing city in comparison with other European cities Place Excerpt European Cities Below average Source: Arthur D. Little s Urban Mobility Index Above average 68 = 7 Gothenburg Vienna Paris Average Munich = 10 Zurich Berlin Barcelona Madrid Cambridge UK Istanbul Frankfurt Prague Brussels Milan = 6 Ankara Lisbon Moscow Rome Saint Petersburg Athens 70 Stockholm Amsterdam London Index-Points Brussels Rank 30 of 66 worldwide Rank 16 of 23 in Europe Above average group (> 75 points): Amsterdam 81,2 London 78,5 Stockholm 77,6 Gothenburg 77,5 Vienna 76,3 Paris 76,3 Munich 76,2 Average group (65-75 points): Zurich 74,6 Berlin 74,5 Barcelona 72,3 Madrid 71,8 Cambridge UK 71,3 Istanbul 70,2 Frankfurt 69,9 Prague 67,8 Brussels 67,3 Milan 65,8 Below average group (< 65 points) Ankara 64,8 Lisbon 62,0 Moscow 60,1 Rome 57,9 Saint Petersburg 56,9 Athens 53,3 14

15 With the introduction of its multimodal mobility card Mobib, Brussels can be considered as one of the good examples for multimodal mobility cards in Europe Business models of countrywide mobility cards Insights: Degree of maturity NOR (Oslo) Source: Arthur D. Little Business model 2: monomodal countywide cards Business model 3: long-distance-travel only ARG (B. Aires) ENG (London) Business model 1: multimodal countrywide cards LVA (Riga) CHN (Peking) TWN (Taipeh) NZ THA SCO FIN ISR LUX BEL DEN NL Success of countrywide implementation JP In Brussels since 2008 Smart city offerings (transit, car & bike sharing, parking, stadiums, museums, theatres,..) Penetration in ,62 cards/ person only 3 years after going live Personalized cards only (yet) Open public transport access system (closing planned) Attempt to establish Mobib as a countrywide mobility card since 2010 Speed-up needed! No automated fare calculation as in NL and DK, the card is a ticket storage only 15

16 Brussels has a high number of shared bikes and performs well in car sharing Bike sharing Car sharing Villo! by JCDecaux 1 : Launched in 2009, subscribers end 2011, bikes and 180 stations (target by 2013: bikes at 360 stations) Blue-bike by SNCB 2 : bikes over 39 stations Rental initiatives: Pro Velo, CyClo Example Cambio car sharing 3 : Launched in 2003 in Brussels, users, 244 cars and 84 stations in Brussels Zen Car 4 Launched in 2011, Green Mobility Solution: 100% electric cars, 16 stations Car pooling initiative Carpool Plaza Joint usage of cars e.g. to go to work Villo! bike sharing 1 Example Cambio car sharing stations bikes users CAGR customers 71% May-04 May-06 Nov-08 Nov-10 Nov-11 May-11 customers cars Source: (1) De Standaard; (2) (3) (4) (5) / 16

17 Milan Gothenburg Madrid Amsterdam Lisbon Frankfurt London Berlin Munich Zurich Vienna Stockholm Barcelona Paris Rome Brussels Athens Cambridge Compared to other European cities, Brussels has a low share of public transport in modal split, that can be partly explained by historical limited investments in PT 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Modal split European cities (ranked from biggest share of public transport to smallest) 1 Other Private motorized transport Public transport, walking & cycling Public transport, walking & cycling accounts for 40% of total transport in Brussels Comments Increase of public transport trips by 94% from 2000 to Accounted for 18% in 2010 Cycling: from 1% (2000) to >4% of trips Car remains the dominant travel mode (57%) IRIS-II mobility plan includes several initiatives to further foster sustainable modes of transport 1,0 0,8 0,6 0,4 0,2 Public transport investments in % of GDP 2 % of GDP London Amsterdam Vienna Madrid Berlin Athens Brussels Paris Munich Stockholm Rome Source: (1) Conduits ( 2010; (2) UITP Source : UITP Mobility in Cities Database (includes investments in infrastructures, vehicles and equipment) 17

18 Berlin Frankfurt London Brussels Madrid Athens Milan Barcelona Rome Gothenburg Lisbon Vienna Zurich Stockholm Cambridge Paris Munich Amsterdam London Milan Paris Brussels Amsterdam Rome Athens Zurich Munich Frankfurt Stockholm Madrid Barcelona Lisbon Vienna Berlin Cambridge Gothenburg Lisbon Frankfurt Gothenburg Stockholm Rome Munich Brussels Zurich Vienna Milan Amsterdam London Madrid Athens Paris Cambridge Berlin Barcelona leading to low mobility performances, amongst others in terms of average travel speed, mean travel time to work and transport related CO 2 emissions Average travel speed 1 (km/h) Mean travel time to work 2 (min) Transport related CO 2 emissions per capita 3 (kg) X Source: Arthur D. Little Mobility Index; (1) Operator websites, weighted average travel speed metro, tram, bus and car 2010; (2) Average one-way commute time, ; (3) Multiples sources,

19 Future of Urban Mobility Solving the problem of urban mobility in a context of a booming urban population will require mobility stakeholders to jointly work on several axis allowing for the emergence of innovative and effective mobility concepts 1. Establish a collaborative platform to align stakeholders and prioritize initiatives Which stakeholders should be involved? Who should take the lead? How to improve transregional integration? Platform Competition 2. Define and execute a vision for the future of Brussels urban mobility system 3. Discover and respond to the consumer need for seamless, multimodal urban mobility Which key priorities for the future? Which new products/services to offer? Which governance to ensure realization of agreed upon targets? How to answer to booming # of potential clients and their evolving/new needs? How to better align mobility (incl. accessibility/connectivity) with town planning? 4. Initiate fair competition between different transport modes and business models How to make public transport and other sustainable travel modes more attractive? How to encourage a rational use of car? To which extend should balanced publicprivate partnerships be stimulated? 19

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