The future role of natural gas in Europe and the world. Stefan Judisch Supply & Trading GmbH 4 th September 2014
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1 The future role of natural gas in Europe and the world Stefan Judisch Supply & Trading GmbH 4 th September 204 RWE Supply & Trading 28/08/204 PAGE 0
2 Gas will take over the role of oil, while the growth of oil demand driven by mobility will stop Fundamentals are compelling for gas displacing oil in transport Global transport gas demand (bcm) Source: Wood Mackenzie LNG Other > Former growth of oil demand was mainly driven by the mobility sector > The heavy duty transport sector trucks/buses/marine is the biggest market and diesel/gasoil will be most impacted > Decreasing oil demand is also provoked by more efficient technologies due to strict climate protection targets and a changing mobility behaviour of people living in metropolises RWE Supply & Trading 28/08/204 PAGE
3 First the liquid and then the solid carbon fuel market will be exposed to declining consumption Renewable additions are squeezing the gas share of the global generation capacity Share of global generation capacity Renewables Gas Source: EIA RWE Supply & Trading 28/08/204 PAGE 2
4 because renewable generation is becoming favourable compared to other fossils 0.8 Levelised cost of electricity ( /kwh) in Germany PV small PV utility Wind onshore Lignite Hard coal Combined cycle Oil small 2 Oil utility 2 Full cost 2 World price Source: Frauenhofer, November 203 RWE Supply & Trading 28/08/204 PAGE 3
5 Electricity demand will continue to grow globally However, supply increase from renewables will outpace electricity demand growth in Europe Development in Europe (TWh) Conventional generation to be squeezed out Renewables generation Power demand EU 28 Source: EIA RWE Supply & Trading 28/08/204 PAGE 4
6 Will the cost decline in batteries be as fast as in solar panels? Large potential for cost reduction once hand crafted small batch series are fully automated and storage systems are mass produced Price expectations for different battery systems/applications ( /kwh) PV ESS system (retail) Stationary systems (wholesale) Battery pack (electric vehicles) Cells (electric vehicles) Source: RWTH Aachen, ISEA, RWE AG, CON-T 2030 > Automated large scale cell/battery production will be the main driver for expected cost reduction going forward > More experience, better/new technologies and chemistry will improve economics and lead to lower investment costs > Battery industry will consolidate and established manufacturers will shift production to lower-cost regions such as China RWE Supply & Trading 28/08/204 PAGE 5
7 The structural changes we are currently facing in Europe are only the overture of a global structural shift in the energy markets Development of European renewables capacity since 2005 (GW) Wind Solar OECD Europe Source: IEA RWE Supply & Trading 28/08/204 PAGE 6
8 This is how the global wind and solar capacity increase is projected from now on Forecast of global renewables capacity from 205 (GW) Wind Solar Source: IEA RWE Supply & Trading 28/08/204 PAGE 7
9 The penetration of electricity in European home heating sector will grow taking market share mainly from gas > Local heating systems will increasingly offer flexibility in the heat versus electricity output > The increased electrification of everyday life implies that electricity is replacing other forms of primary energy, mainly gas and heating oil As an examples, sales prognosis of heat pumps in Germany (thousands) Scenario Scenario Projected saving of primary energy sources from heat pumps in Germany by 2020 (TWh) Source: Bundesverband Wärmepumpen e.v. Branchenstudie Scenario Scenario RWE Supply & Trading 28/08/204 PAGE 8
10 Gas demand in Europe is foreseen to increase only marginally But indigenous production is decreasing, provoking an incremental need for gas imports via pipelines and/or LNG from outside Europe European gas demand versus supply (bcm) European 2 gas demand per sector (bcm) Demand Indigenous production Required pipeline gas/lng Residential/commercial Industry Power Own use/losses Excluding Turkey Source: HIS, July Including Turkey Source: HIS, July 204 RWE Supply & Trading 28/08/204 PAGE 9
11 Former growth forecasts for European gas demand have been revised downwards 2020 demand prognosis for Europe (bcm) EIA IEA BP > Current gas demand is much lower than at the beginning of this decade > Actual development is heavily dependent on political and general regulations Subsidy schemes for renewable power generation Price setting schemes for carbon emissions Price of coal Price of batteries EIA/IEA projections refer to OECD Europe, BP projection includes Eurasia RWE Supply & Trading 28/08/204 PAGE 0
12 Also, the political issues around gas supply don t contribute to gas being the fuel of choice RWE Supply & Trading 28/08/204 PAGE
13 Key lessons and potential implications The importance of gas as a fuel for energy generation is increasingly jeopardised by renewables > What was once thought to only impact the European market is now increasingly becoming a global development driven by economics > The renewable energy evolution will have similar implications on world politics as the US shale gas boom and the economic rise of China > The recovery of the gas market will be slow, if it recovers at all, as losses in demand are structural rather than temporary RWE Supply & Trading 28/08/204 PAGE 2
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