NAMVECC Hybrid Vehicles. Will HEVs be the vehicle of the future? Dave Hermance Toyota Technical Center. November 5, 2003

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1 NAMVECC 2003 Hybrid Vehicles Will HEVs be the vehicle of the future? Dave Hermance Toyota Technical Center November 5, 2003

2 US Hybrid Announcements Honda Insight - 12/99 Toyota Prius - 7/00 (12/97 Japan) Honda Civic Hybrid - 4/02 Next Generation Prius - 10/03 GM Parallel Pick-up - 04 MY Dodge Ram Contractor s Special - 04 MY Ford Escape Hybrid - 05 MY Lexus SUV HV - 05 MY (Highlander?) Saturn VUE HV - 05 MY GM 42V BAS - 06 MY Nissan Altima 07 MY

3 Potential Hybrid Benefits Improved Fuel Economy Reduced Exhaust Emissions Improved Power Performance Combinations of the Above

4 What Does the Market Want? A significant and growing percentage of customers indicate a willingness to buy an environmentally friendly vehicle If, and only if, all other attributes are EQUAL

5 Prius History Model Years * City Label FE Highway Label FE Combined Label FE Accel Emissions LEV SULEV AT-PZEV Size Class Subcompact Compact Midsize * Japan only Minor Model Change Model Change

6 2004 PRIUS

7 2004 Prius Specifics Mid-size Liftback (112.3 ft 3 ) $19,995 MSRP base Increased standard equipment New options $3,000 more than Corolla, but ~$800 less than Camry 36,000 first year sales objective

8 Comparative Fuel Economy US EPA Combined (Label) 55 mpg (+ 107/130%) 26.6 mpg 25.8 mpg 2004 Prius Best 2003 Mid-Size US EPA Highway (Label) US EPA City (Label) 51 mpg (+66%) 30.8 mpg 60 mpg (163%) 22.8 mpg mpg Average 2003 Midsize & Compact

9 Lexus RX Hybrid

10 RX Tease 3.3 liter V-6 Atkinson engine AWD At least 120 kw front motor At least 50 kw rear motor At least 200 kw peak power V-8 SUV performance Compact passenger car fuel economy

11 Toyota FCHV

12 Why Hybridize a FC? Vehicles require wide load range Hybrid system improves efficiency Efficiency High-efficiency Operating Area Fuel Cell System 0 Internal Combustion Engine Output Power High-efficiency Operating Area

13 Toyota's Hybrid Technology Prius FCHV ICE Hybrid Vehicle (Prius) Engine Toyota Fuel Cell Hybrid Vehicle Fuel Cell Power Control Unit Power Control Unit Secondary Battery Motor Secondary Battery Motor

14 FCHV Features 4-door, 5-passenger SUV 90 kw Toyota PEM stack 80 kw permanent magnet motor Compressed H 2 at 5000 psi - ZEV NiMH hybrid battery 0-60 mph in 12.8 seconds 96 mph top speed 64 miles per kg H 2 uncorrected efficiency

15 Issues for Hybrids: Target Selection Most US buyers value performance more than FE Mitigation of Price Premium Learning will lower premium Increased volume will lower premium Unique attributes offset some premium, but Incentives would increase volume in near-term Market Confusion over Types and Benefits Not all hybrids created equal But they may be marketed as if equal

16 The Ultimate ECO Car CNG Diesel DI HSD THS D-4 FCHV Hybrid Technology Lean Burn VVT-i EV Alternative Fuel Diesel Engine Gasoline Engine Electric Vehicle

17 Will HEVs be the vehicle of the future? HVs will gain a growing share of future sales But, conventional ICE will dominate for many more years

18 HV Systems and Functions Definition Application of Hybrid technology Hybrid Function Regulatory EV drive Stop & Go Super Eco-run Low Voltage Partial Assist Full/Strong Motor assist Regenerative braking Engine stop Voltage Low Voltage High Voltage

19 Real-World Fuel Economy (01 Prius) Customer Fuel Economy 100 EPA Combined CAMRY 26mpg Corolla 32mpg Echo 36mpg 44.8 Average EPA(48) Combined 04 Prius(55) Combined Observations or less or more MPG

20 Prius Comparisons MSRP WB Pass Vol Luggage Total Vol Curb Label FE 2004 Corolla $17, / Prius $20, / Prius $20, / Camry $21, /28

21 Fuel Cell Vehicle Challenges Stack - Cost, Efficiency, Durability, Power, Size H2 Storage - Capacity,Weight, Volume, Cost, Durability BOP - Efficiency, Size, Cost, Integration, Durability, Low temperature operation Infrastructure - Who, How, Where, How many, When, Cost of infrastructure, Cost of product Codes and Standards - Building codes, Fueling connector standards, Test standards (vehicle and components)

22 Dec '99 Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec 00 Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec '01 Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec '02 Feb Apr June Total US Prius Insight Civic Hybrid TOTAL US HYBRID SALES Linear (TOTAL US HYBRID SALES) Industry Volume

Hybrid Electric Powertrain Fuel Consumption Reduction Cost Effectiveness Trade-Offs

Hybrid Electric Powertrain Fuel Consumption Reduction Cost Effectiveness Trade-Offs Presentation at the 24 th USAEE/IAEE North American Conference Energy, Environment and Economics in a New Era July 8-10,