Quarterly Vehicle Fleet Statistics

Transcription

1 Quarterly Vehicle Fleet Statistics January-March Quarter of 216 ISSN

2 Introduction The January-March 216 Quarterly Fleet Report is a brief review of vehicle fleet statistics. It provides information on trends in vehicle registration patterns, fuel economy, travel and fuel prices. This report and the accompanying data are available from the Ministry of Transport website. The annual 214 Fleet Statistics are also available. The 215 report will be available in August. The vehicle, fuel economy and Road User Charges data in this report is derived from the New Zealand Transport Agency (NZTA) Motor Vehicle Register. The definitions of the vehicle classes that have been used can be found on pages 4 and 5, and Appendix A of the annual Fleet Statistics report. Table of Contents Introduction... 1 October-December 215 Highlights... 2 Registrations... 3 Fleet age, growth, makeup and scrappage... 9 Emissions standards and CO 2 emissions of light vehicles entering the fleet Engine size of light vehicles entering the fleet Transport Indicators Petrol and diesel deliveries Real petrol and diesel prices... 2 Travel Purchase of road user charges Disclaimer: All reasonable endeavours are made to ensure the accuracy of the information in this report. However, the information is provided without warranties of any kind including accuracy, completeness, timeliness or fitness for any particular purpose. The Ministry of Transport excludes liability for any loss, damage or expense, direct or indirect, and however caused, whether through negligence or otherwise, resulting from any person or organisation's use of, or reliance on, the information provided in this report. Under the terms of the New Zealand Creative Commons Attribution 3. (BY) licence, this document, and the information contained within it, can be copied, distributed, adapted and otherwise used provided that the Ministry of Transport is attributed as the source of the material the material is not misrepresented or distorted through selective use of the material images contained in the material are not copied The terms of the Ministry s Copyright and disclaimer apply see Enquires relating to this data may be directed to the Ministry of Transport, PO Box 3175, Wellington, or by on info@transport.govt.nz For more information about vehicles and travel check out the research section of the Ministry of Transport website 1

3 January-March 216 Highlights Light vehicle registrations Light vehicle registrations are continuing to increase, but used imports have slowed. The graph shows rolling 12 month registrations. Light vehicle registrations (annual rolling average) 2, 15, 1, 5, New Used Vehicle travel Light and heavy vehicle travel has been increasing since mid-213. Vehicle travel vs same quarter a year ago 6% 4% 2% % -2% Light -4% Heavy -6% Fuel prices CO 2 emissions of light vehicles entering the fleet Real petrol prices remain lower than they were in These are real quarterly prices, converted to a December 211 basis using the consumer price index Real regular petrol price (cents) The reported CO 2 emissions of light vehicles entering the fleet dropped in 211 and 212, but have levelled off since then (see Figure 4c). CO2 g/km of light vehicles registered

4 Registrations Light vehicles Figures 1a and 1b show that recent registrations of new light vehicles are at record high levels and used light vehicle registrations are the highest they have been since 25. Registrations of new vehicles dropped in 28 and 29 due to the effects of the global financial crisis, but the drop was less pronounced than for used vehicles. Sales have rebounded since that time. There were 282, new and used import light vehicle registrations in the year to March 216, up from 267,5 to March 215. Used import numbers were dropping prior to the 28 global financial crisis. Among the contributing factors may have been the already high levels of vehicle ownership, collapses in the finance sector, fuel price shocks in 26 and 28 and the requirement from January 28 for used imports to meet the Japanese 98 standard. This requirement restricted the vehicles that could be imported. There was a further requirement in January 212 for used imports to meet the Japanese 5 emissions standard. This prevented most vehicles built before 25 from being registered. This may have restricted used imports in the first half of , Figure 1a : Monthly light vehicle registrations Number of vehicles 1, 5, NZ new Used imports Mar 5 Mar 7 Mar 9 Mar 11 Mar 13 Mar 15 Month first registered in New Zealand Number of vehicles 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Figure 1b : Monthly light vehicle registrations, by fuel Petrol Diesel Mar 5 Mar 7 Mar 9 Mar 11 Mar 13 Mar 15 Month first registered in New Zealand 3

5 Buses and trucks Registrations of used buses and trucks (Figures 1c and 1d) dropped to very low levels after July 28. The 27 Vehicle Exhaust Emissions Rule restricted imports of diesel vehicles after January 28 to those built to the Japanese 2/4 standard, which effectively prevented most vehicles built before 22 from being registered. In 21 the requirement for used diesels changed to the Japanese 5 standard. There has been a slight recovery in used heavy vehicle registrations since 212, which reflects the increasing availability of stock in Japan that is again economic to import. Sales of new buses and trucks remain dominant. Larger numbers of buses and trucks were imported in late 27 because they would not have been allowed in from January 28. That is why registrations spiked in late 27. The 214 Fleet Statistics report provides more information on the truck and bus fleets. 15 Figure 1c : Monthly bus registrations Number of vehicles 1 5 Used bus New bus Mar 5 Mar 7 Mar 9 Mar 11 Mar 13 Mar 15 Month first registered in New Zealand Figure 1d : Monthly truck registrations Number of vehicles 1,6 1,2 8 4 Used truck New truck Mar 5 Mar 7 Mar 9 Mar 11 Mar 13 Mar 15 Month first registered in New Zealand 4

6 Motorcycles Motorcycle and moped registrations (Figure 1e) increased in 28, possibly in response to the higher fuel prices. Sales peaked in 28 (2, registrations in the year to September 28). They have been increasing recently and were 12,4 for the year to March 216. The 214 Fleet Statistics Report provides more information on the motorcycle fleet. Number of vehicles 2, 1,5 1, 5 Figure 1e : Monthly motorcycle/moped registrations Used motor cycle New motor cycle Mar 5 Mar 7 Mar 9 Mar 11 Mar 13 Mar 15 Month first registered in New Zealand 5

7 Light passenger and light commercial registrations Figures 1f, 1g and 1h provide more insights into light vehicle registrations. Figure 1f shows the growth of registrations since 29 as economic confidence picked up and the exchange rate strengthened. Figure 1g shows that new light vehicle registrations rarely exceed used import registrations. It happened at the height of the financial crisis (early 29) and again in 212 when the emissions rule reduced used vehicle imports for a short period. 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Figure 1f : Light vehicle registrations 5Q1 6Q1 7Q1 8Q1 9Q1 1Q1 11Q1 12Q1 13Q1 14Q1 15Q1 16Q1 New light passenger New light commercial Used light passenger Used light commercial Figure 1g : Light vehicle registrations 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % 5Q1 6Q1 7Q1 8Q1 9Q1 1Q1 11Q1 12Q1 13Q1 14Q1 15Q1 16Q1 New light passenger New light commercial Used light passenger Used light commercial 4, Figure 1h : Light vehicle registrations 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, 5Q1 6Q1 7Q1 8Q1 9Q1 1Q1 11Q1 12Q1 13Q1 14Q1 15Q1 16Q1 Used light passenger New light commercial New light passenger Used light commercial Q1=Jan Mar, Q2=Apr Jun, Q3=Jul Sep, Q4=Oct Dec 6

8 Light hybrids and electrics Conventional hybrids 1 now make up about 1% of light registrations. The introduction of the Mitsubishi Outlander plugin hybrid had an immediate impact on electric vehicle 2 registrations early in 214. Audi and BMW plugin hybrids entered the market later. The sales mix has changed - the bulk of electric vehicle registrations in recent quarters have been used imports. There were 535 light electric and plugin hybrid registrations in the year to March 216, which is well up on the 396 in the year to March 215. Used conventional hybrid registrations are increasing but new conventional hybrids registrations have levelled off. This reflects the increasing stocks of used hybrids available in Japan. The monthly electric vehicle report provides more detail, including a breakdown of the models that have been sold, and where the electric vehicle fleet is located. It is available from the Monthly electric and hybrid light vehicle registrations section of 12 Figure 1i : Electric and hybrid registrations Q1 6Q1 7Q1 8Q1 9Q1 1Q1 11Q1 12Q1 13Q1 14Q1 15Q1 16Q1 New electric Used electric New plug-in hybrid Used plug-in hybrid New hybrid Used hybrid Figure 1j : Electric and plugin hybrid registrations 1Q1 1Q3 11Q1 11Q3 12Q1 12Q3 13Q1 13Q3 14Q1 14Q3 15Q1 15Q3 Used electric New electric New plug-in hybrid Used plug-in hybrid Q1=Jan Mar, Q2=Apr Jun, Q3=Jul Sep, Q4=Oct Dec 1 Conventional hybrids combine a conventional internal combustion engine with an electric propulsion system. Their energy is derived from the fuel they burn and regenerative braking. They do not use electricity from the electricity grid. Examples include the Toyota Prius, Toyota Camry, Honda Civic hybrid and Lexus H series. 2 Electric vehicles are either powered solely by battery, or are plug-in hybrid electric vehicles which are battery and engine powered. They have a shorter electric range than pure electric vehicles 7

9 Table 1 Light hybrid and electric registrations Electric vehicles Conventional hybrids Year Period New electric Used electric New plug in hybrid Used plug in hybrid Total electric New hybrid Used hybrid Total hybrids Jan-Mar Apr-Jun Jul-Sep Oct-Dec Jan-Mar Apr-Jun Jul-Sep Oct-Dec Jan-Mar Apr-Jun Jul-Sep Oct-Dec Jan-Mar Apr-Jun Jul-Sep Oct-Dec Jan-Mar Apr-Jun Jul-Sep Oct-Dec Jan-Mar Apr-Jun Jul-Sep Oct-Dec Jan-Mar

10 Fleet age, growth, makeup and scrappage Light fleet age The increase in the number of light vehicle registrations that started in 213 has largely halted the increase in the light fleet s average age at about 14 years old. Figure 1k shows annual average age until 213, followed by quarterly average ages from 214 onwards. 15 Figure 1k : Light fleet average age Average age (years) Mar14 Jun14 Sep14 Dec14 Mar15 Jun15 Sep15 Dec15 Mar-16 Used import ages The average age of the used import light vehicles entering the fleet is increasing. In January 212 the emissions rule changed to require light petrol vehicles to have been built to the Japanese 5 standard, which effectively prevented most vehicles built before 25 from being registered. The average age of used imports dropped in 212, but has been increasing slowly since then. Almost all light used imports are petrol vehicles, which is why their average age is very similar to that of all light used imports. 14 Figure 1l : Average age of used imports entering the fleet 12 1 Average age Q2 6Q2 7Q2 8Q2 9Q2 1Q2 11Q2 12Q2 13Q2 14Q2 15Q2 Used light petrol Overall light Used light diesel Used trucks Q1=Jan Mar, Q2=Apr Jun, Q3=Jul Sep, Q4=Oct Dec 9

11 Fleet growth There has been a major increase in vehicle registrations since 213. Figures 2a-2e show the change in the fleet size each quarter (registrations that quarter minus scrappage 3 that quarter). Figure 2f shows that the light fleet (light passenger plus light commercial) has grown by over 2, vehicles a quarter since the last quarter of 213. Figure 2a : Light passenger fleet growth 15Q3 15Q1 14Q3 14Q1 13Q3 13Q1 12Q3 12Q1 11Q3 11Q1 1Q3 1Q1 9Q3 9Q1 8Q3 8Q1-1, 1, 2, 3, 4, 15Q3 15Q1 14Q3 14Q1 13Q3 13Q1 12Q3 12Q1 11Q3 11Q1 1Q3 1Q1 9Q3 9Q1 8Q3 8Q1 Figure 2b : Light commercial fleet growth -1, 1, 2, 3, 4, Figure 2c : Truck fleet growth 15Q3 15Q1 14Q3 14Q1 13Q3 13Q1 12Q3 12Q1 11Q3 11Q1 1Q3 1Q1 9Q3 9Q1 8Q3 8Q1-1, ,25 1,875 2,5 Figure 2d : Bus fleet growth 15Q3 15Q1 14Q3 14Q1 13Q3 13Q1 12Q3 12Q1 11Q3 11Q1 1Q3 1Q1 9Q3 9Q1 8Q3 8Q Figure 2e : Motorcycle fleet growth 15Q3 15Q1 14Q3 14Q1 13Q3 13Q1 12Q3 12Q1 11Q3 11Q1 1Q3 1Q1 9Q3 9Q1 8Q3 8Q1-2, -1, 1, 2, 3, 4, Q1=Jan Mar, Q2=Apr Jun, Q3=Jul Sep, Q4=Oct Dec 3 In this report a vehicle is considered scrapped during a quarter if it changes to inactive on the Motor Vehicle Register 1

12 Light fleet age breakdown and scrappage Vehicle safety performance has improved over time, on average newer light vehicles do a better job of protecting their occupants. Road safety policy makers are interested in the size of the pre-2 vehicle cohorts remaining in the fleet, and the rate they at which they are leaving. Figure 2g shows the vehicle year of manufacture mix in the light fleet at the end of each quarter. Scrappage of the pre-199 cohort is limited now, but the cohort is shrinking noticeably. Figure 2h shows that scrappage of pre-199 vehicles peaked at around 3.5% per quarter in 27 (which means that 3.5% of those vehicles in the fleet at the start of the quarter exited the fleet during the quarter), but is down to 1.5% now. The scrappage in the January-March quarter of 215 was 3% of the remaining vehicles and 2% of the vehicles. Scrappage is not reported for the last four quarters as the administrative data we are now using to determine when vehicles leave the fleet is not definitive until 12 months after the period. 4,, Figure 2g : Light fleet vehicle age bands 3,5, 3,, 2,5, 2,, 1,5, 1,, 5, Q1 2Q1 4Q1 6Q1 8Q1 1Q1 12Q1 14Q1 16Q1 Fleet period 4.5% Figure 2h : Quarterly scrappage rate by vehicle age band 4.% 3.5% 3.% 2.5% 2.% 1.5% 1.%.5%.% Q1 2Q1 4Q1 6Q1 8Q1 1Q1 12Q1 14Q

13 Emissions standards and CO 2 emissions of light vehicles entering the fleet Emissions standards of light vehicles entering the fleet Under the 27 Vehicle Exhaust Emissions Rule, all vehicles being registered in New Zealand are required to be built to a recognised exhaust emissions standard. Standards may come from Europe (Euro), Australia (ADR), Japan, or America. Figures 3a-3d show the steady improvement in the emissions standards of vehicles entering the New Zealand fleet over time. New Zealand-new light vehicles typically comply with a Euro (or ADR equivalent) standard, and most used imports comply with a Japanese standard. The 27 Emissions Rule required used imports certified from January 212 to meet the Japanese 5 emissions standard. Figure 3c shows that almost all registrations of used imports now meet that standard. Imports of new Euro 6 vehicles are increasing though it is not a legal requirement. 25, Figure 3a : NZ new petrol emissions regime 14, Figure 3b : NZ new diesel emissions regime Rregistrations 2, 15, 1, 5, Euro 6 Euro 5 Euro 4 Euro 3 or 4 Euro 3 Euro 2 Other /unknown Registrations 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, Euro 6 Euro 5 Euro 4 Euro 3 Euro 2 Other /unknown 5Q2 7Q2 9Q2 11Q2 13Q2 15Q2 5Q2 7Q2 9Q2 11Q2 13Q2 15Q2 Quarter Quarter Rregistrations 45, 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, Figure 3c : Used petrol emissions regime Japanese 5 petrol Japanese /2 petrol Japanese 98 petrol Japanese pre-1998 petrol Other/unknown Rregistrations Figure 3d : Used diesel emissions regime Japanese 5 diesel Japanese 2/4 diesel Japanese 97/99 diesel Japanese pre-97 diesel Other/unknown 1, 5, 5 5Q2 7Q2 9Q2 11Q2 13Q2 15Q2 Quarter 5Q2 7Q2 9Q2 11Q2 13Q2 15Q2 Quarter Explanatory notes: Australian Design Rules (ADR) emissions standards are identical to European emissions standards, although they sometimes have different implementation dates. The two are combined and reported as European standards in the graphs above. Fewer than 1 light vehicles a year are reported to comply with standards from America, so these are not broken down further in the accompanying spreadsheet. Vehicles are shown as incorrectly recorded when the fuel type did not match the emissions standard, where the vehicle was reported to meet a standard that did not exist, or where insufficient information was provided to determine the standard. The emissions standards relate to emissions that are directly harmful. There is no relationship between these standards and the CO 2 emissions described in this report. 12

14 CO 2 emissions of light vehicles entering the fleet Issues in the test results This section reports the fuel consumption figures that manufacturers get for their vehicles when they put them through standardised drive cycles in laboratory conditions. While there will always be a difference between laboratory and real world results, they should be readily comparable over time. There is good evidence that the gap between laboratory results and real world fuel economy has been widening. A 215 vehicle with a certain real world fuel economy is likely to have a lower laboratory result than a 21 vehicle with the same real world economy. Figure 4a from a recent European study shows the divergence between real world economy and laboratory test results. Real-world economy was 7% higher than test results in 21 but the gap increased to around 25% by 212. Figure 4a Real world emissions vs laboratory test results Source : A similar comparison has been done in New Zealand 4 between the actual fuel consumption of light petrol corporate fleet vehicles and their laboratory test results. The result shown in Figure 4b is similar to the result shown above. Real world fuel economy is diverging from the test values for the same vehicle. Margin of real world economy above tests 25% 2% 15% 1% 5% Figure 4b : Divergence between real world and test petrol economy % Year of manufacture 4 Real-world fuel efficiency of light vehicles in New Zealand Wang, McGlinchy, Badger, Wheaton, Ministry of Transport. This paper was presented to the Australasian Transport Research Forum (ATRF) in October 215, see 13

15 Figure 4c shows that the average laboratory test value for new light petrol vehicles was 192 g CO 2 /km for vehicles entering the fleet in the fourth quarter of 21 and 169 g CO 2 /km in the fourth quarter of 215. That suggests an improvement of 12% in fuel economy. However, based on the result above their real world economy may have been 219 g CO 2 /km in 21 and 211 g CO 2 /km in 214, or an improvement of only 3.6%. The NZ analysis does show that real world economy has been improving for vehicles with a given engine size and fuel type, but not as quickly as the laboratory results suggest. The fuel economy of the light vehicles that have entered the fleet in the last two years has been static in terms of laboratory test results (see Figure 4c below). The implication is that their average real world economy may have actually worsened. Average CO 2 emissions of light vehicles entering the fleet Figure 4c shows the average reported CO 2 emissions from light vehicles entering the fleet generally declined (due to improved reported fuel efficiency) from 26 to 212, but have leveled out since then. The average engine size of light vehicles registered was dropping until 21 (see Figure 9) and this contributed to the reduction in CO 2 emissions. Average engine size has increased slightly since that time, which contributed to the slight increase in average CO 2 emissions in 214. The reported CO 2 emissions of new light petrol vehicles have been dropping since 25. Some of the drop will have been due to the substitution of diesel SUVs for large engined vehicles such as the Australian Fords and Holdens. The drop in the engine size of light petrol vehicles can be seen in Figure 9. Some of the drop in reported fuel consumption of near-new vehicles in particular will be due to the issues in the test results discussed above Figure 4c : Light vehicle registrations Average CO 2 emissions NZ New Petrol NZ New Diesel Used Petrol Average CO2 g/km Q2 6Q2 7Q2 8Q2 9Q2 1Q2 11Q2 12Q2 13Q2 14Q2 15Q2 Year and Quarter Q1=Jan Mar, Q2=Apr Jun, Q3=Jul Sep, Q4=Oct Dec 14

16 CO 2 emissions of New Zealand-new light vehicle registrations (petrol and diesel) Figure 5b shows that registrations in the segment of the fleet with lower reported CO 2 emissions (under 15g CO 2 /km) have increased to 28% of new registrations. Protracted high fuel prices (see Figures 11a and 11b) between 211 and 214 probably had an impact on purchasing patterns, and there have been advances in vehicle technology. The average results can be seen in Figure 4c. 35 Figure 5a : NZ new light vehicle registrations CO 2 emissions per km driven Registrations per Quarter No value Over 25 g/km g/km g/km g/km g/km g/km upto 12 g/km Percentage of Quarterly Registrations 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 5Q2 6Q2 7Q2 8Q2 9Q2 1Q2 11Q2 12Q2 13Q2 14Q2 15Q2 Year and Quarter Figure 5b : NZ new light vehicle registrations CO 2 emissions per km driven % 5Q2 6Q2 7Q2 8Q2 9Q2 1Q2 11Q2 12Q2 13Q2 14Q2 15Q2 Year and Quarter Q1=Jan Mar, Q2=Apr Jun, Q3=Jul Sep, Q4=Oct Dec No value Over 25 g/km g/km g/km g/km g/km g/km upto 12 g/km 15

17 CO 2 emissions of used imported petrol light vehicle registrations Imported used petrol vehicles had lower reported CO 2 emissions than New Zealand-new petrol vehicles (see Figure 4c on the previous page) until mid-21. After that New Zealand new vehicles have been at least as efficient as used imports 5. Figure 6b shows that the percentage of fuel efficient used vehicles (under 15g/km) entering the fleet changed little from 25 to 211, but increased markedly in 212, possibly in response to fuel prices. The percentage of fuel efficient used petrol vehicles registered has remained much the same since 212. To enable the CO 2 values for used vehicles to be compared with new vehicles (shown in Figures 5a and 5b above), their values have been converted from Japanese warm-start test values to European cold-start values. 45 Figure 6a : Used import light petrol registrations CO 2 emissions per km driven 4 Registrations per Quarter Over 25 g/km g/km g/km g/km g/km g/km upto 12 g/km Percentage of Quarterly Registrations 5 1% 5Q2 6Q2 7Q2 8Q2 9Q2 1Q2 11Q2 12Q2 13Q2 14Q2 15Q2 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Year and Quarter Figure 6b : Used import light petrol registrations CO 2 emissions per km driven % 5Q2 6Q2 7Q2 8Q2 9Q2 1Q2 11Q2 12Q2 13Q2 14Q2 15Q2 Year and Quarter Q1=Jan Mar, Q2=Apr Jun, Q3=Jul Sep, Q4=Oct Dec Over 25 g/km g/km g/km g/km g/km g/km upto 12 g/km 5 The divergence between real world and tested fuel economy figures may have effected this comparison. Used imports tend to be 7 or 8 years old, and real world and tested fuel economy were closer when they were manufactured. 16

18 CO 2 emissions of all light petrol vehicle registrations Figure 7b shows that since 25 there has been a trend towards buying more fuel efficient petrol vehicles, partly as buyers are purchasing diesel sports utility vehicles (SUVs) instead of larger engined petrol vehicles. The share of registrations of light petrol vehicles under 15g/km CO 2 increased markedly in 212 (see Figure 7b) but has plateaued since. 7 Figure 7a : New and used light petrol registrations CO 2 emissions per km driven Registrations per Quarter New no value Over 25 g/km g/km g/km g/km g/km g/km upto 12 g/km 5Q3 6Q3 7Q3 8Q3 9Q3 1Q3 11Q3 12Q3 13Q3 14Q3 15Q3 Year and Quarter Percentage of Quarterly Registrations 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Figure 7b : New and used light petrol registrations CO 2 emissions per km driven % 5Q2 6Q2 7Q2 8Q2 9Q2 1Q2 11Q2 12Q2 13Q2 14Q2 15Q2 Year and Quarter Q1=Jan Mar, Q2=Apr Jun, Q3=Jul Sep, Q4=Oct Dec New no value Over 25 g/km g/km g/km g/km g/km g/km upto 12 g/km 17

19 CO 2 emissions of new diesel light fleet registrations Figure 8a shows that registrations of the least CO 2 efficient diesel vehicles (over 25g reported CO 2 /km) have plummeted. Registrations of diesels under 17g CO 2 /km remain limited. Sales of light diesel vehicles continue to be mainly light commercial vehicles (vans and utes) and SUVs. New vehicle sales are strongly seasonal, reflecting tax and business cycles. Used diesels have not been reported on as few of them have fuel economy values recorded Figure 8a : New light diesel registrations CO 2 emissions per km driven Registrations per Quarter New no value Over 25 g/km g/km g/km g/km g/km g/km upto 12 g/km 5Q2 6Q2 7Q2 8Q2 9Q2 1Q2 11Q2 12Q2 13Q2 14Q2 15Q2 Year and Quarter Percentage of Quarterly Registrations 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Figure 8b : New light diesel registrations CO 2 emissions per km driven % 5Q2 6Q2 7Q2 8Q2 9Q2 1Q2 11Q2 12Q2 13Q2 14Q2 15Q2 Year and Quarter Q1=Jan Mar, Q2=Apr Jun, Q3=Jul Sep, Q4=Oct Dec New no value Over 25 g/km g/km g/km g/km g/km g/km upto 12 g/km Engine size of light vehicles entering the fleet The engine capacity of new petrol vehicle registrations has been trending down, while the engine size of new and used diesel vehicles has been increasing since 212. The engine capacity of used petrol vehicles has hardly varied since Figure 9 : Engine size of vehicles entering the light fleet Average engine capacity (CC) Q1 6Q1 7Q1 8Q1 9Q1 1Q1 11Q1 12Q1 13Q1 14Q1 15Q1 16Q1 Year and Quarter New petrol Used petrol New diesel Used diesel Overall Q1=Jan Mar, Q2=Apr Jun, Q3=Jul Sep, Q4=Oct Dec 18

20 Transport Indicators Petrol and diesel deliveries 6 This section of the report is behind the other data as it takes longer for the fuel data to become available. It covers the period Quarter 1 23 to Quarter Fuel deliveries have seasonal patterns, so quarterly comparisons should be made with the same quarter in other years. Over the longer term diesel deliveries have been increasing. Petrol deliveries were decreasing but began increasing in 215, presumably due to the increase in the fleet size (see Figure 1b, page 3). Diesel is also used in many non-transport areas of the economy including agriculture, mining, forestry, fishing, industrial and at times electricity generation. These fuel delivery figures include those uses, and the transport/non-transport usage split is estimated by the Ministry of Business, Innovation & Employment. The split of transport/non-transport use of diesel is discussed in the Liquid Fuel Use in New Zealand report. 3 Figure 1a : Quarterly petrol deliveries Observed consumer energy (PJ) Quarter 1 Quarter 2 Quarter 3 Quarter 4 35 Figure 1b : Quarterly diesel deliveries (Transport and other uses) Observed consumer energy (PJ) Quarter 1 Quarter 2 Quarter 3 Quarter 4 Transport Non-Transport Latest quarter 6 Source Ministry of Business and Innovation (MBIE) fuel delivery data. 19

21 Real petrol and diesel prices 7 The prices shown in Figure 11a and 11b are December 211 prices (termed real prices), adjusted for inflation via the consumer price index. Real petrol prices remained between $2.3 and $2.11/litre from 211 to late 214. They dropped in 215, to an average of $1.82/litre. Real diesel prices dropped significantly in late 214, They averaged $1.11/litre in 215 which was substantially down on the $1.4/litre in Figure 11a : Real average quarterly regular petrol price, Dec 211 prices 2 Cents per litre Q1 6Q1 7Q1 8Q1 9Q1 1Q1 11Q1 12Q1 13Q1 14Q1 15Q1 Quarter Cents per litre Figure 11b : Real average quarterly diesel price Dec 211 prices 5Q1 6Q1 7Q1 8Q1 9Q1 1Q1 11Q1 12Q1 13Q1 14Q1 15Q1 Quarter Q1=Jan Mar, Q2=Apr Jun, Q3=Jul Sep, Q4=Oct Dec 7 Source Statistics NZ Infoshare Economic Indicators, Group: Consumers Price Index Table: CPI Selected Quarterly Weighted Average Prices for New Zealand 2

22 CO 2 emissions of new light vehicles entering the fleet versus real fuel prices 8 Figure 12 shows the average monthly CO 2 g/km of new light vehicles entering the light fleet versus weekly regular petrol prices, converted to December 211 prices via the consumer price index. The continued high fuel prices between 211 and 215 may have had some impact on vehicle purchases, as the reported fuel efficiency of new petrol vehicles entering the fleet has improved steadily since 21. The reported economy of new light diesels has improved, but far less than petrol vehicles. This is presumably because the average engine size of diesel vehicles has been increasing since 212 (see Figure 9). Figure 12 : Economy of new light vehicles entering the fleet vs fuel price 23 CO2 g/km AND petrol cents/litre Dec5 Dec6 Dec7 Dec8 Dec9 Dec1 Dec11 Dec12 Dec13 Dec14 Dec15 Light petrol vehicles Light diesel vehicles All lights Real petrol price Real diesel price 8 Source MBIE website 21

23 Travel Figure 13a shows estimates of annual national travel 9 for the 12 months to each quarter. Travel is increasing again after being fairly stable between the peak in 28 and mid-213. The recent increase reflects growth in the vehicle fleet, improved economic conditions and net migration. The estimates are established by analysing the odometer readings recorded at warrant of fitness (WoF) and certificate of fitness (CoF) inspections over the last year. This data lags the report period by 6 months, as WoF and CoF inspections are needed after the end of the period being analysed in order to estimate travel. If travel was estimated sooner it would have to be projected from the previous inspection, and changes in fuel price or economic conditions would reduce the reliability of that projection. Figure 13a : Annual travel 4, km (millions) 35, 3, 6Q1 7Q1 8Q1 9Q1 1Q1 11Q1 12Q1 13Q1 14Q1 15Q1 Year ending this quarter Light vehicle travel Heavy vehicle travel Vehicle travel per capita dropped between mid 28 and 212 but has been increasing since 213. Figure 13b shows that travel per capita is less now than it was between 25 and 28. One influence is the age struicture of the population. More of the population is aged over 65 than it was in 25 (11.9% of the population in March 25, 14.6% in March 215) and over-65s drive less on average than younger drivers. 1, Figure 13b : Annual travel per capita 9,5 km/cpaita 9, 8,5 8, 7,5 7, Mar5 Mar6 Mar7 Mar8 Mar9 Mar1 Mar11 Mar12 Mar13 Mar14 Mar15 Year ending this quarter 9 All the vehicle travel estimates (21 onwards) have been revised. The old mechanism for removing vehicles from the fleet (if their registration was not cancelled by the owner) took into account when their Warrant or Certificate of Fitness expired. That mechanism is no longer viable with the change to longer inspection periods in 214. The new mechanism leaves some vehicles in the fleet longer, and produces travel estimates that are typically about 1% greater. This new mechanism was first used in the January-March 215 Quarterly Vehicle Statistics Report. 22

24 The significant decline in heavy vehicle travel between October 28 and December 29 was the result of the economic downturn. Heavy travel increased significantly from mid-213. Light travel dropped in 21 and 211 but has grown substantially since then. Figure 13b : Travel growth Compared with the same quarter a year before 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% -1% -2% -3% -4% -5% -6% Light Heavy All Purchase of road user charges Drivers of vehicles with a gross vehicle mass over 3.5 tonnes, or powered by a fuel other than petrol or electricity, pay for their use of the roads through road user charges (RUC). All light vehicle RUC is from diesel powered vehicles. RUC licences are purchased in advance so quarterly light vehicle net 1 RUC purchases are only indicative of travel. 1 Figure 15a : Net RUC km Rolling 12 month totals 8 Million km Q1 94Q1 96Q1 98Q1 Q1 2Q1 4Q1 6Q1 8Q1 1Q1 12Q1 14Q1 16Q1 Heavy truck Heavy trailer Heavy bus Car/van/ ute/bus 3 Figure 15b : Heavy truck and trailer net RUC km Rolling 12 month totals 25 2 Million km Q1 94Q1 96Q1 98Q1 Q1 2Q1 4Q1 6Q1 8Q1 1Q1 12Q1 14Q1 16Q1 Heavy truck Heavy trailer 1 RUC used for off road travel is refunded. Net RUC is RUC paid less refunds 23

25 Figure 15c : 12 month net RUC km totals relative to 25 35% 3% 25% 2% 15% 1% 5% % -5% -1% 5Q4 6Q4 7Q4 8Q4 9Q4 1Q4 11Q4 12Q4 13Q4 14Q4 15Q4 Heavy truck Heavy bus Heavy trailer Car/van/ ute/bus Q1=Jan Mar, Q2=Apr-Jun, Q3=Jul-Sep, Q4=Oct-Dec 24