The Future of Oats. Ag Commodity Research Oatinsight.com Vancouver, Canada

Transcription

1 The Future of Oats Ag Commodity Research Oatinsight.com Vancouver, Canada

2 Quarterly CBOT Oat Prices of the last 31 quarters have seen price increases Record high $4.71 1/

3 Why Oat Prices Have Spiked Since % increase in Managed Money oat & corn longs US grain use for ethanol use up 435% Increasing incomes in China and India Chinese consumption of meat up 50% Global grain supplies not keeping pace with consumption Declining world grain stocks

4 The Future of Oats

5 Just the Oat Facts Ma am Oats are viewed by consumers as one of the healthiest foods Rising global food demand for oats Re-confirmation that oats are beneficial for equine Highly concentrated market; Production, milling & trade Bio-Fuel crops threatening oat area The oat future has challenges.

6 World Crop Production % of total 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 45% 39% 26% 9% 4% 2% 1% 1%

7 Number of Countries Growing a Crop

8 World Oat Area and Production 65,000 55,000 45,000 Production thousands 35,000 25,000 15,000 5, Area Record lows

9 World Oat Production % of Total % of total 25% 20% 15% 10% 10 countries account for 78% 16% 12% 22% 5% 4% 4% 4% 4% 3% 3% 3% 2% 0%

10 Changes in World Oat Area 250% 200% 150% 100% 50% 0% -50% -100% 232%222% 144% 38% 5% 1% 1961 to % -23% -57% -63%

11 World Yield Change 1970s to 2000s 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 93% 83% 50% 35% 18% 16% Corn Wheat Rye Barley Sorghum Oats

12 World Oat Production 90% of world production

13 North American and EU Oat Area 16,000 14,000 12,000 thousand 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 N. American EU

14 EU Oat Area Top 5 Oat Millers 700 Thousand Hectares Germany United Kingdom Denmark Sweden Finland

15 EU Oat Area Top 5 Oat Milling Countries 1,800 1,600 Thousand Hectares 1,400 1,200 1, Record low

16 US & Canadian Seeded Oat Area 16,000 14,000 Thousand acres 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Canada US Record lows

17 US & Canadian Harvested Area 8,000 7,000 % harvested 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Canada Record lows US

18 Australia and S. American Oat Area thousand 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, Australia & Oceania South American

19 Oat Trade

20 Oat Trade Highly Concentrated Nine countries account for 80% of the world s oat trade 85% of the Exports Canada, Sweden, Finland and Australia 77% of the Imports US, Germany, Spain & Mexico

21 Free Flow of Trade? No such thing EU Import Tariffs US Avena sterilis restrictions Australian import restrictions Phytosanitary requirements

22 World Oat Exports

23 Oat Exports 000 mt 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, ,

24 World Oat Imports

25 Oat Imports 000 mt 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, ,

26 World Oat Import Competition Canada US Sweden Ecuador Mexico Japan Australia South Africa Finland

27 Oat Product Exporters Canada Mainly to US and Mexico EU-27 Mainly internal trade from UK, Germany and Scans Australia US Oceania, Asia and sub continent Canada, Latin America and Asia Chile Latin America

28 Oat Product Importers Mexico EU-27 Mainly internal due to Import Tariffs South America Mainly from Chile Indian Sub Continent, Asia, South Pacific Mainly from Australia and the US

29 Oat Utilization

30 World Oat Feed and Food Use Feed Use 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10, Food Use Feed use ,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 This is lowering 2,000 oat area 1,000 0 Food use

31 World Oat Milling Activity North America 1.5 mmt EU mmt Approx range of oat product exports Chile, Brazil, Ecuador & Argentina mmt mmt

32 World Oat Milling Breakdown Australia 5% Chile 2% Others 5% Canada 18% Europe 34% US 36%

33 N. American Breakfast Cereal & Snack Bar Sales Cereal & SB 000 mt 1,980 1,970 1,960 1,950 1,940 1,930 1,920 1,910 1,900 Hot cereal, Breakfast & Granola Bars 2,050 1,850 1,650 1,450 1,250 1, Breakfast 650 cereal/sb Hot Cereal, BB & GB 000 mt

34 W. Europe Breakfast Cereal & Hot Cereal Sales Breakfast Cereal 000 mt 1,300 1,250 1,200 1,150 1,100 1,050 1, Breakfast Cereal Hot Cereal Hot Cereal 000 mt

35 W. Europe Breakfast Cereal Per Capita Consumption Kg per head

36 E. Europe Breakfast Cereal & Hot Cereal Sales Breakfast Cereal 000 mt Breakfast Cereal Hot Cereal Hot cereal 000 mt

37 E. Europe Breakfast Cereal Per capita Consumption Kg per head

38 Latin American Breakfast Cereal & Snack Bar Sales Hot cereal, Breakfast & Granola Bars mt Breakfast cereal/sb

39 China Breakfast Cereal Per Capita Consumption Kg/head North America China Western Europe

40 Largest Oat Food Growth Potential

41 What Does This All Mean Continued divergence of oat production & mill demand Oat production could very well slide into grower contract status Higher feed demand (equine) needed to stem oat supply declines All the above could threaten CBOT oat futures contract and in turn price discovery

42 2011/12 Oat Outlook

43 Canada Oat Stocks to Usage-Ratio 41% 32% 35% 27% 29% 31% 28% 37% 25% Avg 28% 23% 25% 18% 13% 11% 13% 87/88 88/89 89/90 90/91 91/92 92/93 93/94 94/95 95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11F 11/12F

44 Canadian End Stocks Near Record Low 1,600 Record High 1,523 1,400 1,200 1,000 Avg 1, /80 80/81 82/82 82/83 83/84 84/85 85/86 86/87 87/88 88/89 89/90 90/91 91/92 92/93 93/94 94/95 95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 0/405 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11F

45 Total Canadian Oat Supplies Down 5,500 Record High 5,260 5,000 4,500 Avg 4,800 4,000 3,500 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 87/88 88/89 89/90 90/91 91/92 92/93 93/94 94/95 95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11

46 Mpls/Duluth Oat Stocks 38,000 36,000 34,000 32,000 30,000 28,000 26,000 24,000 28,865 This Backstop has a price? 22,000 20,000 Sep/08 Feb/09 Jul/09 Dec/09 May/10 Oct/10 Mar/1

47 Net Farm Returns E. Saskatchewan $ $CDN per acre $200 $150 $ $50 $0 Malt Barley Canola Spring Wheat Canary Seed CPS Wheat Feed Peas Feed Barley Flax Oats Large Green Lentils

48 Net Farm Returns S. Manitoba $ $CDN per acre $200 $150 $100 $ $0

49 2011 Canadian Oat Production Outlook Scenarios yr avg 2011 Seeded acreage changes 000 mt - bu/ac Unchg 5% 10% 15% Planted 3,737 4,633 3,737 3,924 4,111 4,298 Abandonment 67% 75% 75% Harvested 2,347 3,497 2,803 2,943 3,083 3,223 Yield Production 2,798 3,811 3,082 3,236 3,390 3,544 Change prod

50 Canadian Oat End Stocks Expected Rise 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, mmt Average 79/80 80/81 82/82 82/83 83/84 84/85 85/86 86/87 87/88 88/89 89/90 90/91 91/92 92/93 93/94 94/95 95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 0/405 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10F 10/11F 11/12F 5 yr avg

51 CBOT Continuous Monthly Oats $5.00 $4.50 $4.00 $3.50 $3.00 $2.50 $2.00 $1.50 $1.00 $0.50 $0.00 Record High 4.72 $3.47 Mar/89 Mar/91 Mar/93 Mar/95 Mar/97 Mar/99 Mar/01 Mar/03 Mar/05 Mar/07 Mar/09 Mar/11

52 Duluth Milling Quality Cash Oat Basis $0.60 $ yr avg $.15 $0.20 $0.00 Current $.05 -$0.20 -$0.40 -$0.60 -$

53 Looking Forward Increasing food use of oats into 2015 Oat area threaten by Bio-fuel crops Research funding seriously lagging other crops Increasing equine feed use good for milling push the price envelope Removal of EU Tariffs Removal of Avena sterilis in US. tolerance?

54 OatInsight.com The source for oat information