The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research

Transcription

1 Dr Tom Beer Jianping Li Keith Alverson Weather, Water & Food Security Sunday, 17 August 2014

2 Contents Food Security Food Deserts Urban Agriculture Extreme Weather and Food Security Agricultural disruption Economic disruption Logistical disruption Water and Food Security Climate and Agriculture (Deserts) Droughts and Desertification Famine Climate Change Geographic Disparities International Concerns

3 Food Security: What is it? IUGG

4 Food Deserts

5 Food Deserts

6 Urban Agriculture

7 Contents Food Security Food Deserts Urban Agriculture Extreme Weather and Food Security Agricultural disruption Economic disruption Logistical disruption Water and Food Security Climate and Agriculture (Deserts) Droughts and Desertification Famine Climate Change Geographic Disparities International Concerns

8 Vulnerability to Extreme Weather

9 Extreme Weather Severe Storms Flooding Storm damage due to wind and/or rain Hail damage Tornadoes Tropical Cyclones (Hurricanes, Typhoons) Strong winds can destroy buildings, crops, and cause large waves. Extreme rain rates can lead to flooding Low pressures can produce storm surge and inundation

10 Cyclone Yasi - February

11 Cyclone Yasi - February 2011 Winds Rain Storm surge Flooding X

12 TC Larry TC Yasi

13 Contents Food Security Food Deserts Urban Agriculture Extreme Weather and Food Security Agricultural disruption Economic disruption Logistical disruption Water and Food Security Climate and Agriculture (Deserts) Droughts and Desertification Famine Climate Change Geographic Disparities International Concerns

14 Some Climate Classics

15 Drought and Fire

16 fire-prone vegetation: the Australian eucalypt.

17 Major Bushfires in Australia Major Bushfires Fatalities Houses Lost Black Saturday February 2009 Ash Wednesday February 1983 Black Friday January 1939 Hobart

18 The Sahel A vegetation-climate feedback? Exacerbated by increasing atmospheric aerosols Volcanoes, Nuclear Winter and drought Climate Change

19 Effects of volcanoes on climate If a conference were to give me enough time I could show the NCAR climate simulation showing the drop in temperature as volcanoes erupt.

20 Eruption of Laki ("Skaftá fires")

21 Icelandic Haze Famine of 1783 Iceland Mist Hardships % of the population died in the famine. 80% of sheep, 50% of cattle and 50% of horses died because of fluorosis from the 8 million tons of hydrogen fluoride release.

22 Icelandic Haze Famine of 1783 Monsoon regions Laki eruption weakened African and Indian monsoon circulations, leading to between 1 and 3 millimetres less daily precipitation than normal over the Sahel of Africa, resulting in, among other effects, low flow in the River Nile. Thus famine in Egypt in

23 Icelandic Haze Famine of 1783 Europe Sulfur dioxide during unusual weather conditions caused a thick haze to spread across western Europe, resulting in many thousands of deaths throughout 1783 and the winter of 1784.

24 North America The winter of 1784 was the longest and one of the coldest on record. It was the longest period of below-zero temperatures in New England, with the largest accumulation of snow in New Jersey and the longest freezing over of the Chesapeake Bay. Icelandic Haze Famine of 1783 An extreme snowstorm hit the south, the Mississippi River froze at New Orleans and there was ice in the Gulf of Mexico..

25 Contents Urbanisation and Food Security Food deserts Urban Agriculture Extreme Weather Agricultural disruption Economic disruption Logistical disruption Climate and Food Security Climate and Agriculture (Deserts) Droughts and Desertification Famine Climate Change Geographic Disparities International Concerns

26 Climate Change

27 Climate Change

28 Climate Change and Chill units Already there is evidence that climate change is impacting on the apple and pear industries, with increased climate variability and reduced chilling hours, which are necessary for quality fruit production. The Huon Valley of Tasmania has shown an increase in average minimum temperatures from 1950 of about 0.6 C across both summer and winter. At Orange, NSW, the winter (May to October) average minimums have also risen by 0.6 C The Goulburn Valley Victoria has experienced a decline in the average number of days with minimums below 7 C indicating a reduction in winter chill units

29 Warming impact on pome fruit flowering Batlow ACT Manjimup WA Chill period Growth period Full-bloom timing Chill period Growth period Full-bloom timing Number of days Day of year 285 Number of days Day of year Current C Current C Current C Current C Current C Current C Batlow a cool region: Although chill is prolonged, warming in spring still dominates leading to earlier bloom time....whilst at Manjimup, a milder region: Chill is noticeably delayed with limited influence of warming in spring leading to a delay in full bloom timing. Darbyshire et al. in press

30 Where does the uncertainty lie? A greater proportion of the uncertainty in climate change impact projections was due to variations among crop models than to variations among downscaled general circulation models S. Asseng, F. Ewert, C. Rosenzweig, et al. Uncertainty in simulating wheat yields under climate change Nature Climate Change(2013) DOI: doi: /nclimate1916

31 Contents Food Security Food Deserts Urban Agriculture Extreme Weather and Food Security Agricultural disruption Economic disruption Logistical disruption Water and Food Security Climate and Agriculture (Deserts) Droughts and Desertification Famine Climate Change Geographic Disparities International Concerns

32 Geographic disparities

33 Contents Food Security Food Deserts Urban Agriculture Extreme Weather and Food Security Agricultural disruption Economic disruption Logistical disruption Water and Food Security Climate and Agriculture (Deserts) Droughts and Desertification Famine Climate Change Geographic Disparities International Concerns

34 Nutrition

35 Nutrition

36 Nutrition

37 Nutrition

38 The International Response

39 CGIAR

40 Alberto Montanari Department DICAM University of Bologna Chair of Panta Rhei Biennium

41 The Targets of Panta Rhei (Courtesy by Eva Boegh) Modelling non-steady behaviours. Humans as part of the system (vs pristine catchments). Interaction with society and stakeholders. Hydrological change is the interface of environmental change with humans and society. Integrated treatment of understanding and uncertainty for improved prediction.

42 Science in practice

43 IUGG Commission on Climate and Environmental Change

44 IUGG Commission on Climate and Environmental Change

45 WeatCliFS The International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) is leading the WeatCliFS consortium of international scientific unions to examine weather, climate and food security as well as to look at the interaction of food security and geophysical phenomena. The following fundamental question underpins WeatCliFS: What technologies and methodologies are required to assess the vulnerability of people and places to hazards [such as famine] and how might these be used at a variety of spatial and temporal scales?

46 CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research Tom Beer Phone: Tom.Beer@csiro.au Web: Thank you Contact Us Phone: or A partnership between Enquiries@csiro.au CSIRO and the Bureau Web: of Meteorology