We already went through a (small, benign) climate change in The Netherlands

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1 We already went through a (small, benign) climate change in The Netherlands

2

3 15-16 October 1987, gusts till 220 km/h, great damage 2004, almost 1400 tornado s December (!!) 2001, Faxai, 879 mbar 27 December 2001 Cyclone over Singapore 2004: 4 hits by hurricanes 26 en 28 December 1999, 300 million trees downed January 1993, 916 (912?) mbar 2005: 28 named storms! A few striking weather incidents

4 Summary of climate lecture Introductory spectacle (already done ) 4 Angles + Astronomical (Sunspots, orbit Earth) + Geologic (Position continents, volcanism) + Composition of the atmosphere (greenhouse gases) + Weather patterns + Position icecaps + Ocean currents (North Atlantic Drift, El Niño) + Blocking anti-cyclones, North Atlantic Oscillation + Some remarks on variability Some remarks and thoughts

5 The astronomical perspective Sunspots, the activity of the Sun is a factor: W/m² since 1750 One more relatively cold period Maunder minimum, little sunspots during this part of the Little Ice Age (a temperature low in W. Europe at approximately 1695)

6 The peak at ~1940 can be attributed to solar activity

7 The orbit of the Earth

8 The fit is quite reasonable! The Ice-age cycle is approximately years

9 The geologic perspective The continent configuration is very important with regard to the world temperature A part of the world is nowadays in an icehouse configuration (Antarctica), while during the Cretaceous it was in a greenhouse configuration. Take a closer look:

10 The world today Antarctica is in isolated deep freeze due to the west wind drift in the oceans around

11 In the Cretaceous era sea currents caused a very smooth temperature distribution. Antarctica was not in isolated deep freeze

12 The Deccan traps, one of the nails to the coffin of the Dinosaurs? Volcanism The Siberian traps, coincides with the Perm-Trias catastrophe (ca. 250 Myr ago) Laki fissure eruption (1783) El Chichón (1983) Toba ( BP), caused cooling of the world during ~5 years Humans almost extinct? Tambora (1815), The year Without a summer (1816) Pinatubo (1991), caused a cooling of ca. 0.5 C

13 The greenhouse perspective The composition of the atmosphere changes quickly.

14 This window is pivotal! This determines the temperature

15 CO2, eons ago During ice-ages the CO2 content of the air was low However, this is an anomaly (due to continent positions!)

16 De link tussen greenhouse gassen en de temperatuur is zeer duidelijk The link between CO2 and temperature is quite obvious

17 Remark: Sun = 235 W/m² A summary from the IPCC report

18 The sun, El Niño and volcanism in a single picture Gunung Agung Krakatoa Sun (orange) El Niño (green) El Chichón Pinatubo

19 A Global summary: The effects of CO2, pollution and solar activity

20 Weather patterns

21 Boltzmann: P m. g. h R. T e Po

22 A cross section of the polar Jet stream

23 A map of the 500 mbar plane

24 Position icecaps The 500 mbar weather map at ~8500 BP

25 Thanks to ice on Labrador Europe enjoyed warm summers!

26 Blocking anti-cyclones A map of the 200 mbar plane: Jet streams

27 The Siberian Express (Christmas 1983)

28 The summer of 1976

29 A dreadful adventure in the winter of /1 26/12 4/12 15/11 6/11

30 and the weather map of the winter of 1432

31

32 Ocean currents The correct Gulf Stream story! 10 C +2 C 4 C 0 C 11 C 5 C

33 The difference between 1695 and now the Gulf Stream one gear down?

34 A part of the story behind the Gulf Stream and the Little Ice Age : The conveyor belt

35 El Niño The warm and the cold phase of El Niño

36 Walker cells during the normal situation and during El Niño

37 During normal condition the equatorial wind is easterly During El Niño conditions the equatorial wind is westerly

38 El Niño, how does it start? Variants of the ITCZ: This is the standard situation. This is the pattern of The West Pacific. This is the winter pattern south of Asia.

39 An overview of El Niño records since the Spanish conquest & colonisation

40 North Atlantic oscillation The weather map of a mild winter (1975) The north Atlantic oscillation index is high

41 The weather map of a cold winter (1979) The north Atlantic oscillation index is low

42 A question for western Europe: (and to the K.N.M.I.) Which signal is more important: Greenhouse or weather patterns on the Atlantic Ocean? Are they similar in strength or not? And: Might there be a link?

43 Food for thought roller coaster stable

44 Questions Anomaly average world temperature

45 Blanco slide; stuff for questions

46 It is getting colder since 1998 in perspective (data: Hadley Centre)

47 Top: Mean temperature change between 1950 s and 2000 s Bottom: Global average temperature change from 1850 onwards

48

49 The saturation argument:

50 Yearly average temperature ( C) Labrijn series yearly averages

51

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55 Wind supply

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59 Hurricane overview per decade in the Atlantic and Caribbean

60 Multi-decadal oscillation

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64 The structure of a mid latitude storm The role of convergence and divergence aloft

65

66 Temperature anomalies w.r.t. long year date average

67 Solar spots versus summer and winter temperatures (De Bilt / Labrijnreeks) (period 1750 present)

68 Level of cosmic radiation vs. global temperature anomaly [ C]

69 Level of cosmic radiation vs. timeline of global temperature anomaly [ C]

70 Global temperature anomaly [ C] for

71 Level of cosmic radiation for

72 CO2 concentration vs. global temperature anomaly [ C]

73 The amount of sea ice in the Arctic in summer is rapidly decreasing!

74 Sea-ice minima

75 Sea ice minima

76 Sea-ice minima

77

78 The 4 th IPCC report was quickly overtaken by the facts

79 IPCC related material

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88 Terrestrial biomass Average C storage ton C / ha Total global storage Gt C Terrain vegetation soil total vegetation soil total Tropical Forest Mid Latitude Forest Boreal Forest Total Forest Tropical Savanne Mid Latitude Grass Land Agricultural Land Tundra Boreal Peat Bog

89 Examples of bamboozling by skeptics

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