The Frank M. Engle Lecture

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1 The Frank M. Engle Lecture 2005 A Look at Our Future: When Baby Boomers Retire David M. Walker Comptroller General of the United States Delivered at The American College Bryn Mawr, Pennsylvania, on September 28, 2005 The views expressed in this lecture are those of the author and should not be attributed to the U.S. Government Accountability Office.

2 Copyright 2006 The American College Press All rights reserved Limited excerpts from this publication may be quoted without permission; the credit line 2005 Frank M. Engle Lecture of The American College, Bryn Mawr, Pennsylvania should be used. Copies are available from the office of Ms. Joanne F. Patterson of the Richard D. Irwin Graduate School at The American College, 270 South Bryn Mawr Avenue, Bryn Mawr, Pennsylvania

3 THE FRANK M. ENGLE LECTURE This endowed lectureship of The American College is made possible through a generous gift from the late Frank M. Engle, a leading citizen of Tulsa, Oklahoma, and a widely known authority in life insurance, estate planning, pensions and profit sharing, and related financial sciences. The purpose of the lectureship fund is to stimulate objective study of the economic life of the United States in the global economy, with particular emphasis on the social and economic impact of private and public economic security mechanisms. Studies will be published and widely disseminated. Previous Engle Lectures 2004 Challenges for Retirement Planning Olivia S. Mitchell, Professor of Insurance and Risk Management, Wharton School of Business, University of Pennsylvania 2003 Debt, Democracy, and Demographics: The New Macroeconomic Threats of the 21st Century Paul M. Romer, Professor of Economics, Graduate School of Business, Stanford University 2002 Which Way for the Stock Market? Robert J. Schiller, Yale School of Management, and Jeremy J. Siegel, Wharton School of Business, University of Pennsylvania 2001 Social Security Reform in the Twenty-First Century Governor Edward M. Gramlich, Federal Reserve Board 2000 Luxury Fever: Money and Happiness in an Era of Excess Robert H. Frank, Professor of Economics, Cornell University 1999 The Unfinished Business of Our Century John Kenneth Galbraith, Paul M. Warburg Professor of Economics Emeritus, Harvard University 1998 Globalization, Instability, and the World Financial System Jacob A. Frankel, Governor, Bank of Israel 1997 Did Macro Policy Cause the Inequality Crisis? James K. Galbraith, Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public Affairs, University of Texas at Austin 1996 Reducing the Deficit: Past Efforts and Future Challenges Robert D. Reischauer, Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution 1995 Implications of NAFTA William C. Gruben, Research Officer and Director, Center for Latin American Studies, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

4 1994 Questions about Income Redistribution during the 1980s James C. Miller, Distinguished Fellow, Center for Study of Public Choice, George Mason University 1993 The Legitimate Role of Government in a Free Economy Walter E. Williams, John M. Olin Distinguished Professor of Economics, George Mason University 1992 Takings, The Economy, and Legal and Property Rights Paul Craig Roberts, William E. Simon Chair in Political Economy, Center for Strategic and International Studies 1991 The Revolution in U.S. Finance: Past, Present, and Future Robert E. Litan, Senior Fellow in Economic Studies, Brookings Institution 1990 Social Security, Public Debt, and Economic Growth James Tobin, Sterling Professor of Economics Emeritus, Yale University, and 1981 Nobel Prize winner in economics 1989 Reforming the Banking and Thrift Industries: Assessing Regulation and Risk W. Lee Hoskins, President, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland 1988 Imbalances and Asymmetries in the World Economy H. Robert Heller, Governor, Federal Reserve Board 1987 Can Economic Policy Manage the Economy? Paul W. McCracken, Day Distinguished Professor Emeritus, University of Michigan (with Lawrence Chimerine, Michael R. Darby, A. Gilbert Heebner, Lindley H. Clark, Jr., and Lawrence R. Klein, 1980 Nobel Prize winner in economics) 1986 Developing Countries Debts and Growth Prospects Anne O. Krueger, Vice President, Economics and Research, World Bank 1985 Stabilizing U.S. and World Economy: Whose Responsibility? William D. Eberle, President, Manchester Associates, Ltd The Deficit Dilemma Rudolph G. Penner, Director, U.S. Congressional Budget Office 1983 The Problem of Productivity in Restoring Prosperity Jerry L. Jordan, University of New Mexico 1982 Capital Formation, Inflation, and Economic Recovery Walter E. Hoadley, Hoover Institution, Stanford University 1981 Constitutional Restrictions on the Power of Government James M. Buchanan, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, and 1986 Nobel Prize winner in economics

5 1980 Inflation Expectations Lindley H. Clark, Jr., The Wall Street Journal 1979 Policies for Productivity Growth Eli Shapiro, Massachusetts Institute of Technology 1978 TIP: To Stop Stagflation Sidney Weintraub, University of Pennsylvania

6 FRANK M. ENGLE The 2005 Frank M. Engle Lecture is the twenty-eighth in the series of lectures endowed by the distinguished insurance agent and business executive, the late Frank M. Engle of Tulsa, Oklahoma. Frank Engle was born in 1897 in El Reno, Oklahoma, when it was part of the Indian Territory. He began his long and successful life insurance career as a student at the University of Oklahoma. In 1920 he moved to Tulsa to set up an agency for Phoenix Mutual. Mr. Engle first earned membership in the Million Dollar Round Table during the Great Depression and remained a continuous MDRT member throughout his active underwriting career. He wrote Northwestern Mutual s first million-dollar life insurance application and brokered substantial amounts of insurance for the key men in the growing oil and gas industry. As his native state grew and prospered, so did he. Throughout his career, Frank Engle shared his success by loyally supporting the institutions that had strengthened his profession and his community. He served on the boards of trustees of three charitable foundations and contributed financially to The American College and several universities in Oklahoma. In 1976 Mr. Engle, a strong advocate of professional education, endowed the annual lectureship that bears his name at The American College. The purpose of the lectureship fund is to stimulate objective study of the economic life of the United States in the global economy, with particular emphasis on the social and economic impact of private and public economic security mechanisms. Each year a prominent scholar or policymaker is invited to deliver a lecture, which is then published by the endowment under the aegis of the Frank M. Engle Distinguished Chair in Economic Security at The American College, established in Mr. Engle continued to make generous contributions to the endowment fund until his death in May Portrait by Russell Recchion

7 DAVID M. WALKER David M. Walker became the seventh Comptroller General of the United States and began his 15-year term when he took his oath of office on November 9, As Comptroller General, Mr. Walker is the nation s chief accountability officer and head of the U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO), a legislative branch agency founded in GAO s mission is to help improve the performance and ensure the accountability of the federal government for the benefit of the American people. Before his appointment as Comptroller General, Mr. Walker had extensive executive experience in both government and private industry. Mr. Walker currently serves as Chair of the Center for Continuous Auditing, and as a principal of the U.S. Joint Financial Management Improvement Program. He is on the Board of the International Organization of Supreme Audit Institutions (INTOSAI) and various educational and not-for-profit entities. He is a Fellow of the National Academy of Public Administration; a member of the National Academy of Social Insurance; and an active member of various professional, public service, and other organizations, including the Sons of the American Revolution. Mr. Walker is a CPA and received a BS degree in accounting from Jacksonville University, a Senior Management in Government Certificate in public policy from the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University, an Honorary Doctorate in Business Administration from Bryant College, and an Honorary Doctorate of Public Service from Lincoln Memorial University. Mr. Walker is a frequent speaker and widely published author. He testifies regularly before Congress and is often quoted by major print and electronic media on a wide range of topics.

8 THE AMERICAN COLLEGE The American College is the nation s oldest and largest educational institution devoted exclusively to the study of life insurance and related financial services. Founded in 1927 on the University of Pennsylvania campus, this independent, nonprofit college is now located in Bryn Mawr, Pennsylvania. Accredited by the Middle States Association of Colleges and Schools, The American College offers professional certification and graduate degree distance education to men and women in life insurance and other financial services careers. The College s courses are developed by its full-time faculty of some 30 men and women. The LUTC program at The American College offers the LUTCF professional designation. Its curriculum is designed to introduce students to the technical side of financial services while at the same time providing them with the requisite sales training skills. The Solomon S. Huebner School of The American College administers the Chartered Life Underwriter (CLU ), the Chartered Financial Consultant (ChFC ), the Chartered Advisor for Senior Living (CASL ), the Registered Health Underwriter (RHU ), the Registered Employee Benefits Consultant (REBC ), and the Chartered Leadership Fellow (CLF ) professional designation programs. In addition, The College administers a CFP Board registered program for those individuals interested in pursuing the CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER designation and license. The Richard D. Irwin Graduate School of The American College offers the master of science in financial services (MSFS) degree as well as several other graduate-level degrees, designations, and certificates that concentrate on specific subject areas. The American College is governed by a Board of Trustees and Dr. Laurence Barton, PhD, its eighth president. The College is located at 270 S. Bryn Mawr Avenue, Bryn Mawr, PA The toll-free telephone number of the Office of Student Services is (888) AMERCOL ( ), the fax number is (610) , and is the home page address.

9 The Frank M. Engle Distinguished Chair The Frank M. Engle Distinguished Chair supports educational and research programs related to issues of economic security and the dynamics of financial globalization. To stimulate study of these topics, the holder of the chair contributes to graduate courses for The College and oversees the presentation of each year s Frank M. Engle Lecture. The Engle Chair Advisory Committee Since 1995, the Engle Chair Advisory Committee meets during the year to advise on the selection of topics and speakers in the Engle Lecture series. In addition to the Engle Chair, the current members of the Committee are Yung Ping Chen, Frank J. Manning Eminent Scholar s Chair in Gerontology, University of Massachusetts, Boston; Jack Gatewood, CLU, ChFC, Engle & Gatewood Associates, Tulsa, Oklahoma; A. Gilbert Heebner, Distinguished Professor of Economics (ret.), Eastern College, St. Davids, Pennsylvania; and Laurence Barton, PhD, President and CEO of The American College, Bryn Mawr, Pennsylvania. We are grateful to the Committee members for their strong support and advice to the Engle Chair in choosing the current speaker.

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11 CONTENTS Abstract xiii Lecture: A Look at Our Future When Baby Boomers Retire 1 Question and Answer Session 13

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13 ABSTRACT The Honorable David M. Walker, Comptroller General of the United States, attributes the current and projected deficits facing the country to a lack of fiscal responsibility and stewardship on the part of the U.S. government and citizens. He explains why the impending retirement of baby boomers will bring this crisis to a head. Unfunded entitlement programs like Social Security and Medicare and possible bailouts of government-sponsored entities could seriously damage the country s economy and the overall standard of living of its citizens. To prevent a fiscal disaster, Mr. Walker proposes a number of measures that would alleviate these problems without wrecking any future generation s long-term finances. These far-reaching changes would affect not only entitlement programs but such underlying practices as accounting and reporting models, budgeting systems, and federal labor and tax policies. Choosing to carry out these measures would require some sacrifice on everyone s part, but such steps are necessary at this critical crossroads. Mr. Walker encourages both citizens and leaders to cooperate to address these significant issues in a timely and focused way. xiii

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15 A Look at Our Future: When Baby Boomers Retire

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