The Role of Non Renewable Energy in Indonesia Future Energy Mix

Transcription

1 The Role of Non Renewable Energy in Indonesia Future Energy Mix Herman Darnel Ibrahim Adjunct Prof. [UNITEN, Malaysia] Dr. [ITB, Indonesia], M.Sc. [UMIST, UK], Ir. [ITB] Expert Board of METI, the Indonesian Renewable Energy Society Board Member of DEN, the Indonesian National Energy Council Presentation At APEC Conference on Clean Renewable and Sustainable Energy Use Bali, 2 October 2013 Background Picture: Wayang Windu Geothermal Power Plant, West Java, Indonesia

2 What Would Be the Role of Non Renewable Energy [Non RE]? Non RE [Fossil Energy] is the partner [it is not the competitor] of Renewable Energy. Non RE and RE are like bread and butter or like fish and lemon. In medium term Non RE Role is to provide security of supply and energy cost competitiveness, and RE Role is to provide clean and long-term sustainability of energy use. In brief the role of Non Renewable Energy depends on the Role of Renewable Energy. Indonesian Energy Policy is to maximize the use of RE with Non RE [Coal and Gas] as the backbone. Jakarta Role of Non RE, APCRES by HDI 2

3 What and How Much Is Final Energy Need? Final Energy Form: Electricity in all Sectors. [Non RE+RE] Non Electricity to produce heat and power: Heat for Industry, Household and Services [Non RE + Biomass] Power for transport vehicles [Non RE+ Biofuel] Three folds from 2010 to 2030 and Two folds from 2030 to 2050 Indonesia Energy Challenges is To GROW and to GO GREEN Jakarta Role of Non RE, APCRES by HDI 3

4 How Much Is Non Electricity Energy Need? Total RE Components in Electricity: Hydro, Geothermal, Biomass, Solar, Wind and Ocean. RE Components in Non Electricity to produce heat and power [transport]: Biomass and Biogas for heat. Biofuel and Biogas for Vehicles Renewable energy sources are mainly converted into electricity form. Renewable energy use in non electricity form is mainly for transport. Jakarta Role of Non RE, APCRES by HDI 4

5 How Much Is Primary Energy Need? and How Much Is Domestic Energy Resources? Energy Resources Domestic Sources Resources [*] in MTOE Exploitable to 2050 [**] Renewable Oil Gas [***] Coal Total Non RE [*] Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources [**] DEN, National Energy Council Estimate [***] Natural Gas, Shale Gas and CBM By 2030: Non RE PE for Electricity: 167 MTOE, and for Non Electricity: 207 MTOE By 2050: Non RE PE for Electricity: 352 MTOE, and for Non Electricity 338 MTOE By 2030: RE Primary Energy supply for Electricity: 80 MTOE and for Non Electricity: 26 MTOE By 2050: RE Primary Energy supply for Electricity 95 MTOE and for Non Electricity 195 MTOE PE Need Projection Primary Energy Consumption in MTOE Total For Electricity For Non Electricity Jakarta Role of Non RE, APCRES by HDI 5

6 No What is the Estimate of Energy Supply Potential? Energy Source Reserve [C] Reserve and Resource* Resource [S] * Most of the data is from Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources Copyright H Darnel Ibrahim Jakarta Role of Non RE, APCRES by HDI 6 Unit C [%] Approximate Supply Capability S MTOE [%] PE Eq. MWe 1. Renewable Energy 1.1 Biomass [Biofuel] ^6 kliter NA 1.2 Geothermal MWe Hydro MWe Ocean NA 240 GWe Solar NA 1200 GWe Biomass [Waste] NA MWe Other RE NA MWe Fossil Energy 2.1 Oil ^6 Barrel NA 2.2 Coal ^6 Ton NA 2.3 Natural Gas TCF NA 2.4 CBM TCF NA 2.5 Nuclear NA Ton U NA 3. Total [RE] Total NA

7 What are the Limitations in Reducing Dependency on Non RE? Limitations in Reducing Non RE in Electricity Production: Continuity [short-term security] of RE primary energy supply. Solar, wind and ocean are intermittent. [Storage?] Scale of RE plant capacity leading to higher production cost. Locations of RE sources are site specific. Limitations in Reducing Non RE in Non Electricity energy use [Liquid Fuel and Biogas]: Continuity [short-term security] of supply Use of Non RE is dictated by available technology [not all are replaceable by RE]. Limited scale for biogas production. Jakarta Role of Non RE, APCRES by HDI 7

8 Copyright H Darnel Ibrahim What is the Long Term Energy Strategy? Maximize RE, Minimize Oil; Coal and Natural Gas as Backbone, Nuclear Last Option Maximize RE: Purchase at Higher Price [FiT]. Reduce CO2 Emission. Better Security of Supply. Consequences Average Production Cost Increased. Minimize Oil [Gasoline]: To Reduce National Energy Costs More Secure to the World s Oil Price Dynamics Consequences Cost to Develop RE and Other Energy. Optimize Gas and New Energy [CBM, Fuel Cell]: Lower CO2 Emission Provide Security of Supply. Consequences Gas Infrastructure Investment Coal to Secure Supply and Price: Production Cost Cheaper. Provide Security of Supply. Consequences CO2 Emission Increase Mining Environment Nuclear the Last Option: Domestic and Imported Non Nuclear Energy Not Secure To Reduce CO2 Emission. Consequences High Investment Cost Risk of Fatal Accident Jakarta Role of Non RE, APCRES by HDI 8

9 What Is the Expected RE and Non RE Share in the Future Energy Mix? Total PE: 159 MTOE Total PE: 480 MTOE Total PE: 980 MTOE 2010: Oil Heavy Small RE [7%] Non RE [93%] 2030: More Coal Much More RE [23%] Less Oil Non RE [77%] 2050: More Gas Maximum RE [30%] Minimum Oil Non RE [70%] Jakarta Role of Non RE, APCRES by HDI 9

10 To Conclude Limitations in Reducing Dependency on Non RE: Maximizing of RE will be limited by location of sources and will be capped by RE production costs. Reducing of dependency on Non RE use in industry [for heat] and in transportation [for power] is dictated by technology. Non RE supply role is to provide short-term security of supply and to balance energy production cost. Policy to Reduce Dependency and for Cleaner Use of Non RE: Removal of Petrol Subsidy as a disincentive of its use. In longer term is to tax all fossil energy use. Obligation of clean technology use of coal[such as super critical boiler for large scale of Coal Power Plant]. Encourage [Incentive] for the clean technology [efficient] use of gas in industrial plant [such as Combined Heat and Power]. Jakarta Role of Non RE, APCRES by HDI 10

11 Terima Kasih Atas Perhatiannya Thank You For Your Attention Jakarta Role of Non RE, APCRES by HDI 11

12 Biography of Herman Darnel Ibrahim Board Member of DEN, the Indonesian National Energy Council Jakarta Role of Non RE, APCRES by HDI 12