Bill Pyke Hilbre Consulting Limited October 2012

Transcription

1 Alternative Energy Sources Bill Pyke Hilbre Consulting Limited October 2012 Delivered on Behalf of: Limitations of Fossil Fuels 1

2 Outline Definitions Relative Energy Values Global Statistics Remaining Reserves Costs Environmental Impact 2

3 What are Fossil Fuels? Energy sources created by the decomposition of animal and plant life over millions of years and their transformation into hydrocarbon energy sources 3

4 Types Solid, Liquids and Gases Solids-coals and lignite, bitumen Liquids- crude oil, condensates Gases- natural gas and gas liquids 4

5 The Global Primary Energy Mix in 2011 Nuclear 5% Hydro 6% Renewable 2% Oil 33% Coal 30% Gas 24% 5 Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, June 2012

6 The Global Primary Energy Mix by 2035 New Policies Scenario Nuclear 8% Hydro 3% Renewable 13% Oil 29% Coal 25% Gas 22% 6 Source: IEA, WEO November 2011

7 Headlines Fossil Fuels are not sustainable! Geopolitically insecure Increasingly expensive The biggest challenges Significant decarbonising energy by 2050?? Developing renewables on a commercially competitive basis 7

8 The Issues Fossil Fuels are depleting, limited and unsustainable in the longer-term Limits of Fossil Fuel Reserves and Resources Limitations of Production Capabilities Cost Implications Global Distribution of Remaining Reserves Energy Security Environmental Issues Fossil Fuels Emissions 8

9 Limitations Non-renewable Resource Crude oil is a non-renewable resource Fossil fuels take millions of years to develop under extreme conditions Once they are gone, they can no longer be part of the energy mix 9

10 Limitations of Fossil Fuel Technologies In many areas technologies are becoming more costly Fossil fuels-oil, gas, coal used as the key source (>70%) in global electrical power generation Emission of pollutants/ greenhouse gases Cost of Carbon Sequestration increases costs and prices 10

11 Fossil Fuel Supply; Present & Future Oil Increasing taxes to host countries-government take Deepwater resources costs Non-Conventional resources Remote Locations Natural Gas Remote locations Investments required for new infrastructure Transportation and tariff costs Coal More imports from remote sources Specification for environmental compliance favours high btu clean coals with low sulphur, chlorides 11

12 Remaining Proven Global Fossil Fuel Reserves, 2011 Fossil Fuel Solid % of Global energy consumption in 2009 Proven Reserves 10 9 tonnes Coal, Anthracite, Lignite 26% 847 Liquid Crude Oil, Condensate Natural Gas Liquids 34% 205 Natural Gas 20% Sources: BP Statistical Review 2012 & IEA, 2011

13 Remaining Time at Current Rates of Consumption Fossil Fuel Years Solid 332 Coal, Anthracite, Lignite Liquid (Conventional) 37 Crude Oil, Condensate Natural Gas Liquids Natural Gas (Conventional) 62 13

14 The Uneven Distribution Of Oil And Gas Reserves Key North America Crude oil 73 Natural gas = % of crude oil reserves = % of natural gas reserves 323 Central & South America Crude oil 199 Natural gas 285 W. Europe Crude oil 12 Natural gas Middle East Africa 132 Crude oil 754 Natural gas 2,69 0 Crude oil 128 Natural gas 521 E. Europe and Central Asia Crude oil 125 Natural gas Asia Crude oil 42 Natural gas 2, Distribution of proven reserves of crude oil (billion barrels) and natural gas (trillion cubic feet), 2011 Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2012

15 Crude Oil Resources and Reserves Proven Reserves Published 1,652 billion barrels Probable Reserves 1,300 billion barrels Possible Reserves 2,700 billion barrels Total: 5,652 billion barrels Global consumption at 87mb/d (32 billion barrels/year) Global consumption at 107 mb/d (39 billion barrels/year) 3P Global Reserves Life Index 145 years! 15

16 International Coal Transportation 16

17 Current and Future Costs of Fossil Fuel Supply The easy resources have been developed! Future resources will take additional costs to ensure sustainable supply and satisfy supply growth against energy demand Environmental considerations add to cost burden Costly technologies for more difficult primary energy sources Increasing unit labour costs as living standards rise in developing countries 17

18 Fossil Fuel Supply Costs: Present & Future Oil Increasing taxes to host countries-government take Deepwater resources costs Non-Conventional resources Remote Locations Natural Gas Remote locations Investments required for new infrastructure Transportation and tariff costs Coal More imports from remote sources Specification for environmental compliance favours high btu clean coals with low sulphur, chlorides 18

19 Cash Needs To Find, Develop And Produce New Oil and Refined Products The easy oil has been found or depleted New reserves will be more capital intensive Higher proportion of CAPEX will be required to sustain existing (and declining) production New oil likely to be lower viscosity, higher gravity and higher sulphur content Upstream Costs for Finding and Developing New Oil ( ) have been estimated at $17.6trillion* Downstream Costs ( ) have been estimated at $6 trillion* 19 * Platts Capital Expenditure Forecast for Global Hydrocarbon Demands through 2030 L.G,Chom, October, 2007

20 Annual CAPEX $billion Oil Industry Estimated Annual Capital Spend to 2030 Sources: IEA, Platts, 2007 (Nominal Costs) Downstream Upstream

21 million barrels/day Global Supply Run-out without new investment Existing Non-OPEC Existing OPEC Years 21

22 million barrels/day Global Supply Where Will New Oil Production Come From? Where is the new oil coming from? New Existing Non-OPEC Existing OPEC Years 22

23 Future Global Crude Oil Supply To Meet Demand Oil production rises to 99mb/d by Source: IEA, World Energy Outlook, November, 2011

24 World Unconventional Liquids Production, (million barrels per day oil equivalent) 24 Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook, 2007

25 New Sources of Crude Oil Supply in this Decade Country Additional production Mmb/d Comments Iraq +5.4 Field refurbishments, new developments Saudi Arabia +4.0 Empty quarter, new developments and discoveries Brazil +3.2 Santos basin Kazakhstan +1.8 Kashagan Ghana Deepwater developments Uganda +1.0 New discoveries, developments U.S Light, tight oil +1.4 Bakken, Niobrara TOTAL Source: IEA WEO, November 2011 and personal communications

26 Global Emissions 27 billion tonnes carbon released each year Emissions have increased at 2% per year In % emissions due to fossil fuels Oil produces 40% more emissions per unit of energy than gas, and coal 80% 26 26

27 CO 2 (ppm) Carbon Dioxide Levels CO 2 (ppm) Muana Loa Readings CO 2 Levels Since Dome Concordia Vostok Ice Core Time (YBP) 0

28 Carbon (10 9 metric tons) Worldwide Carbon Emissions Total Oil Coal Natural Gas Year

29 Global Carbon Emissions by Sector Agriculture 14% other Fuel Combustion 10% Fugitive Emissions 1% Power Generation 24% Industry 15% Deforestation 18% Transportation 18% 29 World Resources Institute, 2006 et al 29

30 Transport Carbon Emissions by Sector note: 18% of all Global Emissions Light Road Vehicles 40% Aviation 9% Shipping 22% Heavy Road Vehicles 27% Rail 2% 30 World Resources Institute, 2006 et al 30

31 million tonnes oil equiv./yr Renewables Hydro Nuclear Coal 6000 Natural Gas Crude Oil Global Energy: Past Consumption & Future Energy Trends, Sources; various

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33 Conclusions (1) The era of cheap oil is over 75% of major oilfields are now in decline Global consumption of 30bn barrels/year are not being replaced at the same rate. Unsustainable! Future global oil supply is under pressure from increasing global demand 33

34 Conclusions (2) Population growth, rising living standards will accelerate increased energy demand Increasing Purchasing power will enable growth of vehicles 10-fold in Asia by mid-century Investment focusing on energy supply chain will be considerable. Driven by changes in energy sources. Higher capital costs for extraction of remaining fossil fuels combined with environmental investment requirements Development of entirely new technologies hydrogen economies, clean coal,?fusion 34