Top Income Shares and Budget De cits
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1 Top Income Shares and Budget De cits Santo Milasi June 27th, 2012 niversity of Rome Tor Vergata (Institute) Top Income Shares and Budget De cits 06/ / 17
2 Introduction During the last three decades the stock of public debt is considerably increased in many OECD countries (+20% on average) The same period is characterized by two additional dynamics: The increase in the concentration of income at the top The reduction of the tax rates imposed on high incomes May the high concentration of income at the top, along with a decreasing taxation of high incomes, have a ected OECD countries public balances in the last thirty years? (Institute) Top Income Shares and Budget De cits 06/ / 17
3 About Budget De cits Budget de cits observed till the 1973 oil shock can be well explained by the standard "tax-smoothing" theory (Barro, 1979) The "tax-smoothing" theory do not reconcile with the observed scal performances across OECD countries in the last thirty years. The magnitude and the persistence of budget de cits have greatly varied across OECD countries Alesina and Perotti (1995): Why did large de cits emerge only after the early 1970s? Why did it happen in some countries and not in others? (Institute) Top Income Shares and Budget De cits 06/ / 17
4 Literature Most of the literature on budget de cits determinants focuses on politico-institutional factors (e.g. the degree of fragmentation of the government; government ideology; the process of budget determination; etc...) "Inequality and de cits" literature: Berg and Sachs (1988) nd that higher income inequality is signi cantly associated with an higher probability of debt rescheduling. Woo (2003a) (2003b) shows that larger budget de cits are run in highly polarized countries Larch (2012) nds that income inequality in uence a country s scal performance by interacting with other political or economic variables. Azzimonti et al (2012) nd that inequality, nancial integration and rising government debt move together (Institute) Top Income Shares and Budget De cits 06/ / 17
5 Why do top income shares matter in budgetary terms? Three questions are crucial: What share of national income do the top income group actually have? What has happened to taxation of high incomes over the last thirty years? What does the evidence suggest about how top incomes respond to changes in taxation? (Institute) Top Income Shares and Budget De cits 06/ / 17
6 What share of national income top incomes have? Australia Canada Denmark Finland Top 10 percent Income Share (%) France Germany Ireland Italy Netherlands New Zealand Norway Portugal Sweden United Kingdom United States (Institute) Top Income Shares and Budget De cits 06/ / 17
7 The Top 1 percent income share Australia Canada Denmark Finland Top 1 percent Income Share (%) France Germany Ireland Italy Netherlands New Zealand Norway Portugal Sweden United Kingdom United States (Institute) Top Income Shares and Budget De cits 06/ / 17
8 What about taxation imposed on high incomes? Australia Canada Denmark Finland Top Marginal Income Tax Rate (%) France Germany Ireland Italy Netherlands New Zealand Norway Portugal Sweden United Kingdom United States (Institute) Top Income Shares and Budget De cits 06/ / 17
9 What does the evidence suggest about how top incomes respond to changes in taxation? (1) According to the "supply-side" theory a higher taxation on top incomes give rise to behavioral responses in order to minimize tax payments, so hampering growth and reducing tax revenues. Lindsey (1987) nds that the ERTA (1981), which lowerd U.S. top tax rate from 70% to 50%, coincided with a very large increase in the share of income reported by the top 1%. The elasticity of taxable income with respect to the net-of-tax share ranges between 1.6 and 1.8. Feldstein (1995), studying America s 1986 Tax reform act, which lowered the top marginal rate from 50 percent to 28 percent, estimates that, among high earners, the elasticity of taxable income with respect to the net-of-tax rate is between 1 and 3. (Institute) Top Income Shares and Budget De cits 06/ / 17
10 What does the evidence suggest about how top incomes respond to changes in taxation? (2) According to Goolsbee (2000) earlier ndings on e ciency losses are overstated. The strong behavioral responses found by previous research would be due to responses which do not a ect GDP growth (e.g. shift income to capital gains, adjusting the timing of the realization of gains) Piketty, Saez and Stancheva (2011) estimate an income elasticity among top incomes such that the socially optimal top tax rate would be equal to 83%. Romer and Romer (2012), focusing on the interwar period in the United States, show that changes in marginal tax rates have a small impact on reported taxable income. Considering the elasticity of top income to taxation ranging from 0.19 to 0.38, they suggest that the revenue-maximizing rate is between the 84 and 73 percent. (Institute) Top Income Shares and Budget De cits 06/ / 17
11 Top Marginal Taxation, Top Incomes and Growth Average Top 1% income share Canada United States Germany United Kingdom Switzerland Spain France New Zealand Portugal Japan Italy Ireland Australia Norway Netherlands Finland Sweden Denmark Average GDp per capita real annual growth (%) Canada Ireland Norway Portugal Japan Finland United Kingdom United Spain States Italy Australia Germany Denmark Netherlands France Sweden New Zealand Switzerland Average Top Marginal Income Tax rate (%) Average Top Marginal Income Tax Rate (%) Figure 4: Average Top 1% income Share and Average Top Marginal Taxation Figure 5: Average GDP annual growth rate and Average Top Marginal Taxation niversity of Rome Tor Vergata (Institute) Top Income Shares and Budget De cits 06/ / 17
12 The Model Pooled cross-section time series for 17 countries over the period Def it = α + β 1 Def i,t 1 + β 2 Debt i,t 1 + β 3 GDP it +β 4 Unem it + β 5 In it + β 6 Top1 it + δ t + ε it - Debt is a dummy variable equal to one if the lagged public debt to GDP ratio is above the 80 percent; - Unem is the change in the unemployment rate - GDP is the growth rate of GDP - In is the rate of in ation of the consumer price index - Top1 is the income share held by the top 1 percent of the population. - Year dummies have been included to capture cross-country related macroeconomic shocks niversity of Rome Tor Vergata (Institute) Top Income Shares and Budget De cits 06/ / 17
13 Data Data on top income shares are taken from the newly compiled "World Top Income Database" (2011). The top income share series are constructed in most of the cases using tax statistics and they are largely concerned with gross incomes before tax. The main source is personal income tax returns, and income reported is typically gross total income, including labor, business and capital income before taxes and transfers. Data on total expenditures and total revenues as percentage of GDP are taken from the OECD National Accounts Database. They both refer to general government. Data on public debt are taken from the IMF Government Finance Statistics, and refer to consolidated general government public debt. Data on the rate of unemployment, in ation and GDP are taken from the World Development Indicators. (Institute) Top Income Shares and Budget De cits 06/ / 17
14 (Institute) Top Income Shares and Budget De cits 06/ / 17
15 niversity of Rome Tor Vergata (Institute) Top Income Shares and Budget De cits 06/ / 17
16 The long term e ect of Top1 in column (3) is: = Very similar to column (1). (Institute) Top Income Shares and Budget De cits 06/ / 17
17 Conclusions Some evidence... Positive relationship between the concentration of income at the top and budget de cits. The disaggregation of the budget components shows that such a result comes from a negative relationship between the concentration of income at the top and budget revenues. The traditional argument in the "inequality and de cits" literature is not supported by evidence. Many questions... To what extent the concentration of income at the top is important to the ongoing processes of scal consolidation? Which is the relationship between economic growth and changes in top marginal taxation? (Institute) Top Income Shares and Budget De cits 06/ / 17
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