Challenges Opportunities Cooperation in the Nile Basin from Egypt s perspective

Transcription

1 Challenges Opportunities Cooperation in the Nile Basin from Egypt s perspective Prof. Dr. Mohamed Abdel-Motaleb Minister of Water Resources and Irrigation Egypt February 2014

2 EGYPT WATER RESOURCES

3 Water Balance in Egypt 2013 Available water resources Consumptions Deep aquifer 2 Bcm Rainfall 1.3 Bcm Municipal 10 Bcm Industry and Electricity 2.5 BCM Nile Water 55.5 Bcm Agriculture 67 BCM Total BCM Total 79.5 BCM

4 Expected Water Balance in Egypt 2017 Available water resources Consumptions Deep aquifer 3.5 Bcm Rainfall 1.3 Bcm Municipal 12.6 Bcm Industry and Electricity 3.8 BCM Nile Water 55.5 Bcm Agriculture 69 BCM Total BCM Total 85.4 BCM

5 Challenges Facing Water Sector in Egypt Climate Change Limited water resources (more than 90% WR comes from outside) Population increase lead to a $6 billion food gap Water quality degradation Deteriorated I&D networks and structures; Costs for new projects and O&M are escalating dramatically Lack of awareness Lack of water supply and sanitation

6 Impacts of Climate Change on Coastal Zone The coastal zone of Egypt is seriously vulnerable to the effects of sea level rise and changes in weather patterns.

7 Per Capita Share of Water Resources (m 3 ) Per Capita Share of Agricultural Lands (Acres) Per Capita Share of Water Resources and Agricultural Land Years Per capita share of WR Per capita share of Ag. Lands

8 Population Per capita Water Share Per Capita Share of Water Resources and Population Population Per Capita Water

9 NILE FEATURES

10 Nile Basin Countries Burundi DRC Eritrea Egypt Ethiopia Kenya Rwanda South Sudan Sudan Tanzania Uganda With more than 370 million people 5 States among the poorest countries in the World NILE BASIN MAP Main Nile White Nile Bahr Ghazal Atbara Blue Nile Equatorial Lakes

11 Area : about 3*10 6 km 2 Area of Lakes is km 2 Area of swamps is km 2 Length : more than 6700 km Length of Rivers and tributaries is km

12 Drainage Area in 1000 Km2 Discharge (BCM/y) 84 Length in Km Nile River Characteristics 1 st River Name 6 th 24 th 84 River Name River Name

13 Main sources of Nile Runoff Ethiopian Plateau Bahr El-Ghazal Basin 85 % 0 % Equatorial lakes 15 %

14 Rainfall Volume Nile Basin Countries * * FAO

15 Surface and Ground Water in the Basin Total Rainfall on the Basin is about 1660 BCM. Annual Yield of the Nile is Estimated as 84 BCM. Ratio of the Annual Yield is 5% of the Potential. The other 95% includes: Rainfed Agriculture Forests Livestock Evaporation Evapotranspiration Recharge of Ground Water

16 Water Challenges in Nile Basin Extreme Poverty. Instability. Climate Change Rapid Population Growth. Environmental degradation Natural disasters (Floods, Droughts,.etc.) Complicated hydrology of Basin. Low Specific Yield. 16

17 Poverty Drought 17

18 Floods 18

19 Food Shortage 19

20 Drinking Water 20

21 Poor Sanitation 21

22 Bad Management Outcomes 22

23 Climate Change 23

24 Climate Change There is low confidence in implications of climate change on the direction and magnitude of future rainfall change in the Nile Basin. 24

25 Nile Basin Opportunities River is least developed in upper reaches. Potential is great. (Water saving, Agriculture, Power pooling,.etc) Great chance for win-win solutions. Serious steps taken for cooperation is an incentive for donors. 25

26 EVOLUTION OF COOPERATION IN THE NILE BASIN HYDROMET, TECCONILE, Nile Basin Initiative (NBI), 1999 present 26

27 Agreed Principles of NBI Regional Development Projects: Win-Win No-Harm Consensus Building Confidence & Trust Capacity Building 27

28 NELSAP CU Kegali- Rwanda ENTRO Addis Ababa Total Cost ( ) for ENSAP Projects 50 Million USD Total Cost ( ) for NELSAP Projects 40 Million USD

29 Dams under NBI Umbrella Egypt- Ethiopia and Sudan have jointly agreed to study their national plan projects through Eastern Nile Subsidiary Action Program (ENSAP). A regional power trade study was conducted in which two sites in Ethiopia were identified (Mandaya 49.2, Border 14.5 BCM). The studies have recommended the two dams' sites for the feasibility studies after preparing complementary studies. Although the differences among the three Nile Basin countries due to signing the Cooperative Framework Agreement (CFA), the above mentioned studies were continued.

30 Ethiopia Unilateral Action In February 2011, (coincide with the Egyptian revolution) the Government of Ethiopia has announced the implementation of an unknown dam on the Blue Nile named project X. This action has led to hinder the ongoing studies. At end of April 2011, Ethiopia announced unilaterally the launching of constructing a large dam on the Blue Nile called Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). Initially Ethiopia stated that the dam will not have any adverse impact but it has many benefits; then such statements were changed gradually till they announced that the dam has detrimental impacts.

31 Egypt s Perspective towards Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD)

32 Ethiopian Water Basins 32

33 Dam Location

34 Hypothetical Image

35 Dam Characteristics* Dam Type Height above foundation length Full Supply Level (FSL) Minimum operating level Total Storage volume Dead storage volume Saddle Dam Type Height above ogl length powerhouse * Ethiopian documents Roller Compacted Concrete (RCC) Dam 145 m 1780 m 640 m asl 590 m asl 74,013 BCM 14,793 BCM CCRD (asphaltic core) 50 m 5200 m 16 Francis 16x375 MW = 6000 MW

36 International Panel of Experts In May 2011, the two sides agreed to form an International Panel of Experts (IPoE) to provide review/assessment of benefits and impacts of GERD to Egypt and Sudan. The IPoE held six meetings, from May 2012 to May 2013, through which the provided documents on GERD from the GoE were reviewed and evaluated. The IPoE had finalized its final report which was submitted to the three Governments, the Main report, has stated clearly the main gaps on the project studies which assured the concerns of Egypt.

37 IPoE Final Report Main Findings and Recommendations Most of the submitted and reviewed documents have been finalized after starting the implementation of GERD, some of them have been finalized and submitted after establishing the IPoE. The environment and socioeconomics report fails to address the impacts on downstream countries. The dam engineering and safety documents are level 1 design and not suitable for construction purpose, and attention should be given to the saddle dam which is the weakest point.

38 IPoE Final Report Main Findings and Recommendations (Cont d) Cost/benefit analyses studies were not provided. Some of the identified documents were not submitted to the IPoE (i.e. Dam Break Analysis.). The present Hydrological and Reservoir Simulation Study shows detrimental impacts on Egypt with the dam s current specifications and Ethiopian proposed filling criteria (filling the GERD in 6 years) reach in some cases that High Aswan Dam will reach the minimum operating level during at least 4 consecutive years.

39 IPoE Final Report Main Findings and The Final IPoE Report showed the necessity of conducting two additional studies in the followings areas:- Recommendations (Cont d) 1. Water resource system/hydropower model study 2. Transboundary Environment and Socio Economic Impact Assessment study.

40 GERD Impacts according to Egyptian studies A comprehensive study was conducted to assess the impacts of GERD on Egypt during its filling and its operation according the Ethiopian rules Filling the 74 BCM dam in 6 years The power generation from HAD will be reduced by 32% The water deficit will be increased by 58 BCM reaching 103 BCM (Distributed over the 6 years). The reduction in notional income is about 57 Billion US $ (according to 2011 prices) reaching about 70 Billion US $ if we consider the agricultural and economic growth rates Operating the dam to maximizing energy production The power generation from HAD will be reduced by 36%, The water deficit will be increased by 35 BCM reaching 80 BCM distributed over 4 years.

41 Implementation of the IPoE Final Report Recommendations The Egyptian foreign affairs minister visited Ethiopia on June 2013, agreed with his Ethiopian counterpart, to embark on consultations at the technical and political levels, with the participation of Sudan, to implement the IPOE recommendations. Three meetings were held in November, December 2013 and January Although some issues had been agreed upon by the three Ministers, other significant issues met a deadlock, due to differences in points of views related to the engagement of the International Experts in the mechanism, in addition to that Ethiopia refused to discuss an Egyptian proposal regarding confidence building.

42 Implementation of the IPoE Final Report Recommendations (Cont d) Egypt suggest to contribute in the construction process either by offering financial support or by the involvement of some well Known Egyptian construction firms, based on that Dam will be for the benefit of all riparians in the eastern Nile region. Egypt has never denied the development of the water resources of any Nile basin country, contrarily Egypt always support many water resources projects. Egypt always asking Nile basin countries to follow up the rules and principles of the international law, related to the Transboundary Waterways, in order to not cause appreciable harm to any other country, and which do not contradict with the sovereignty of any riparian states, where GERD studies fail to fulfill that.

43 Implementation of the IPoE Final Report Recommendations (Cont d) In spite of the lack of complete studies, Ethiopia has continued the construction process which is not in agreement with the well-known international standards concerning the large dams on the international rivers. Taking into account the Transboundary nature of the blue Nile which put obligation on the national development plans to be studied comprehensively in a regional context as the common practice worldwide.

44 Choices Cooperative action to achieve win-win gains & Unilateral action, perpetuating poverty and disputes regional development is a must. GIVE ME MY WATER It is not yours It is not mine It is ours

45 Important Message It is vital noting that while Egypt will not compromise on its water rights that were established over decades as a legal right; it is not against the development projects that follow a win-win and no harm principles in the Eastern Nile Basin. It is worth to stress that the door to trilateral discussions may still be open to discuss any new ideas which should contribute to reach agreement on the differences.

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