Why. Inventions. Britain? Social. New Ideas. Impact

Transcription

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2 Why Britain? Inventions Social Impact New Ideas

3 Dystopian Future

4 What can population models predict about the future? How did the historical context of the Industrial Revolution impact the theories of Thomas Malthus? How does the population theory of Thomas Malthus differ from the Demographic Transition Model? Based on the Demographic Transition Model, what predictions can be made about future population trends?

5 Dystopian Future Demographics Thomas Malthus Malthusian Catastrophe Crude Birth Rate (CBR) Total Fertility Rate (FR) Crude Death Rate (CDR) Rate of Natural Increase (RNI) Demographic Transition Model (DTM)

6 British Economist Lived during the IR Witnessed the population boom and began to study Demographics Statistical study of population trends Malthus is best known for his theories on extreme population growth.

7 Believed that populations would eventually expand beyond the Earth s capacity to produce food. Malthusian Catastrophe The power of population is so superior to the power of the Earth to produce sustenance for man, that premature death must in some shape or other visit the human race -Thomas Malthus,1798

8 y=x y= x 2 10

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11 2010 China 1.3 B India 1.2 B USA 307 M Indonesia 240 M Brazil 199 M Pakistan 175 M Bangladesh 156 M Nigeria 149 M Russia 140 M Japan 127 M 2050 India 1.6 B China 1.4 B USA 420 M Nigeria 299 M Pakistan 295 M Indonesia 285 M Brazil 260 M Bangladesh 231 M D.R.C 183 M Ethiopia 145 M

12 Alternate Population Theory

13 Developed by American Demographer Warren Thompson (1900s) DTM asserts that population growth rates change depending on a country s level of development. Four Phases Phase 1 Pre-Industrial Phase 2 Transitional Phase 3 Transitional Phase 4 Industrial Phase 5??? Post-Industrial

14 CBR Crude Birth Rate Births per 1,000 per year (world) CDR Crude Death Rate Deaths per 1,000 per year World average is 8.37 TFR Total Fertility Rate Average number of children born to a woman over her lifetime World U.S

15 CBR Crude Birth Rate Births per 1,000 per year CDR Crude Death Rate Deaths per 1,000 per year RNI Rate of Natural Increase Net gain per 1,000 per year Measures the growth of population, excluding immigration

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17 Phase #1 Pre Industrial High Crude Birth Rates High Crude Death Rates Slow Rate of Natural Increase (RNI) Usually associated with poor public health measures like lack of sanitation.

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19 High CBR High Death Rate Extremely rare today: Brazilian Rainforest Papua New Guinea

20 Phase #2 Transitional Crude Birth Rate remains high Crude Death Rate falls drastically (Higher Life expectancies) Rapid Rise in the RNI Why does the CDR drop? Increased food supply Medicine (especially for children) Sanitation British Agricultural Revolution thrust all of Europe into Phase 2

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22 CBR = CDR = RNI? Population Growth in percentages? 34.2 / 1,000 people 3.42%

23 Phase #3 Transitional Crude Birth Rates Begin to Fall rapidly Crude Death Rates remain low RNI begins to level off Why does CBR drop? Contraception Opportunities for Women

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25 CBR has fallen rapidly in the last 20 years. CDR remains low. As a result, the RNI has slowly declined Population is still growing, but at a slower pace than before Year CBR CDR RNI % % % % %

26 Phase #4 Industrial Low CBR Low CDR RNI is relatively flat Usually associated with highly industrialized and highly urbanized countries. Why? Large families are a burden in an industrialized society Health care relatively accessible Abundance of food

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28 CBR = CDR = RNI near zero Population is no longer growing

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32 CBR = 8.39 CDR = 9.15 What s happening? Median Age 45.4 Life expectancy at birth 84

33 What did Thomas Malthus overlook? How could Malthusian Theory be incorrect? What are the limitations of the Demographic Transition Model? What could it fail to project?

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37 What can populations model predict about the future? How did the historical context of the Industrial Revolution impact the theories of Thomas Malthus? How does the population theory of Thomas Malthus differ from the Demographic Transition Model? Based on the Demographic Transition Model, what predictions can be made about future population trends?

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