UN World Population Prospects, the 2015 Revision
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1 UN World Population Prospects, the 2015 Revision Gerhard K. Heilig Presentation prepared for the International School on Energy Systems of the Forschungszentrum Jülich - organized at Kloster Seon, Germany on September 7-11, 2015 Contact: Gerhard K. Heilig, Waldheimstrasse 29, 3004 Riederberg, Austria gerhard.heilig@gmail.com; website: Disclaimer: This PowerPoint presentation is not a United Nations publication. Views expressed are my own and do not imply the expression of any opinion on the part of any international organization or research institute. However, this presentation is using data from the official United Nations World Population Prospects, the World Urbanization Prospects and the Probabilistic Population Projections for all countries of the world.
2 World Population Prospects, the 2015 Revision Content Population size Share of global population Population density Urbanization Age structure Dynamics: Fertility & mortality
3 World Population Prospects 1 Population Size We are in the middle of an epochal demographic transition. Within only 150 years, the world population will increase between 1950 and 2100 by 8.7 billion people.
4 1 World: Population, (billion) 9.7 Source: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division: World Population Prospects, the 2015 Revision. New York
5 1 Global projections by variant: (million) Constant fertility: 25 billion Constant fertility and mortality: 19 billion Medium variant: 11 billion Instant replacement fertility: 10 billion Constant mortality: 8.6 billion Source: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division: World Population Prospects, the 2015 Revision. New York
6 1 World population in 2100 by scenario Source: WPP2015 Constant-fertility With current fertility (and medium-variant mortality decline) the world population would increase to 25 billion people. Everything constant With current fertility and mortality the world population would increase to only some 19 billion, because fewer people would survive to old age Medium variant (= median of probabilistic projections) With declining fertility and declining mortality the world population would increase to 11.2 billion. Instant-replacement-fertility Even if all high-fertility countries would reduce their fertility to replacement, the global population would grow to 10.3 billion Constant-mortality With current mortality (and medium-variant fertility decline) the world population would be only 8.6 billion.
7 1 Asia: Population, (billion) 5.3 Source: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division: World Population Prospects, the 2015 Revision. New York
8 1 Africa: Population, (billion) 2.5 Source: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division: World Population Prospects, the 2015 Revision. New York
9 1 Europe: Population, (million) 707 Source: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division: World Population Prospects, the 2015 Revision. New York
10 1 Latin America: Population, (million) 707 Source: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division: World Population Prospects, the 2015 Revision. New York
11 1 Northern America: Population, (million) 433 Source: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division: World Population Prospects, the 2015 Revision. New York
12 1 Regions: Population, (billion / million) World Asia Latin America Africa Europe Northern America Source: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division: World Population Prospects, the 2015 Revision. New York
13 1 Africa - Europe: Population, (million) 4,387 2,478 1, Source: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division: World Population Prospects, the 2015 Revision. New York
14 1 Latin America - Northern America: Population, (million) Source: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division: World Population Prospects, the 2015 Revision. New York
15 1 Asia - Africa: Population, (billions) Source: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division: World Population Prospects, the 2015 Revision. New York
16 1 Population growth or decline (millions) Source: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division: World Population Prospects, the 2015 Revision. New York
17 1 Population growth or decline, (millions) Source: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division: World Population Prospects, the 2015 Revision. New York
18 1 Population growth, (millions) Source: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division: World Population Prospects, the 2015 Revision. New York
19 1 Population increase: Top-20 countries (millions) Past 65 years Next 35 years Source: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division: World Population Prospects, the 2015 Revision. New York
20 1 Population increase: Top-20 countries (millions) Last half of 21 st century 150 year period Source: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division: World Population Prospects, the 2015 Revision. New York
21 1 African and European populations, Countries with similar population size in 1950 (millions) Both Nigeria and the Ukraine had a population of around 38 million in Today, Nigeria has a population of 182 million; in 2050 it will be 399 million. By the end of the century Nigeria could have a population of 752 million while the Ukraine will probably decline to 26 million. Source: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division: World Population Prospects, the 2015 Revision. New York
22 1 African and European populations, Countries with similar population size in 1950 (millions) In 1950, Ethiopia and Romania had a population of 18 and 16 million, respectively. Today, Ethiopia s population is 99 million, and 2050 it will most likely be about 188 million. By 2100, Ethiopia might have a 243 million population Romania s will go down to less than 11 million. Source: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division: World Population Prospects, the 2015 Revision. New York
23 World Population Prospects 2 Share of global population By the end of the 21 st century 39% of the world population will be people from Africa. Europe will contribute less than 6% to the world population.
24 2 Population by major region, Source: WPP2015
25 2 Share of world population Africa s share of the world population will more than triple between 1950 and from 9% to 39%. Asia s share of the world population has increased from 55% in 1950 to almost 60% today. It will shrink again and reach 44% by Europe share of the world population was about 22% in It is now down to only 10% and it will further decline to less than 6%. Northern America s share will change very little and fluctuate between 5% and 7%. Latin America s share will also change little and fluctuate between 6.7% and 8.6%. Source: WPP2015
26 World Population Prospects 3 Population density and urbanization Population density will be higher in some parts of Asia and Africa than in Europe. Almost all future population growth will be in urban areas usually by expansion of slums.
27 3 Population density by major region (people per sqkm) Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division: World Urbanization Prospects, the 2014 Revision. New York
28 3 Population density: Top-30 countries in 2015 People per sqkm Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division: World Urbanization Prospects, the 2014 Revision. New York
29 3 Population density: Top-30 countries in 2050 People per sqkm Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division: World Urbanization Prospects, the 2014 Revision. New York
30 3 Population density: Top-30 countries in 2100 People per sqkm Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division: World Urbanization Prospects, the 2014 Revision. New York
31 3 Selected population densities: Persons per square kilometre Almost 11 times the density of Japan 2, times the density of Japan 1,041 1, Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division: World Urbanization Prospects, the 2014 Revision. New York
32 World Population Prospects 4 Urbanization Almost all future population growth will be in urban areas usually by expansion of slums.
33 4 Africa - Europe: Urbanization, (% urban) Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York
34 4 Africa - Europe: Urbanization, 2015 (% urban, rural) Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York
35 4 Africa: Urbanization? Makoko auf dem Wasser by Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung from Berlin, Deutschland - Uploaded by Elitre. Licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0 via Wikimedia Commons -
36 4 Asia: Urban quality of life? "Kin Ming Estate part2" by Qwer Own work. Licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0 via Wikimedia Commons
37 4 Africa: Urbanization? "Dumping of faecal sludge into the river" by Doreen Mbalo - Licensed under CC BY 2.0 via Wikimedia Commons
38 4 Africa: Kibera Slum, Nairobi A young boy sits over an open sewer in the Kibera slum, Nairobi. Photo by Trocaire. Licensed under CC BY 2.0 via Wikimedia Commons.
39 4 Africa: Failure of international organizations UN-HABITAT headquarters and Kibera-Slum, Nairobi (one of the largest in Africa) Golf course Kibera Slum UN HABITAT
40 4 Africa: Failure of international organizations Kibera, a suburb of Nairobi, is the largest slum in Africa with more than one million inhabitants. Children playing amidst piles of garbage, with no running water and the stench of sewage and waste everywhere. Right on the boarder of Kibera are the headquarters of UN-HABITAT the agency that should bring adequate shelter for all. Source: Dambis Moyo: Why Foreign Aid Is Hurting Africa. The Wall Street Journal, March 21, 2009
41 4 Mega-Cities und selected countries (in 2025) Somalia Cairo Lagos Chile Mozambique Delhi Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2012): World Urbanization Prospects, the 2011 Revision. New York
42 World Population Prospects 5 Population age structure Africa is a continent of children, and young adults. Europa is a continent of older people with increasing population aging.
43 5 Africa - Europe: Median age, (years) Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York
44 5 Africa - Europe: Median age, 1950, 2015 (years) Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York
45 5 Africa - Europe: Median age, (years) Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York
46 5 World: Population by age groups Millions Percent of total population In 2050, 33% of all people worldwide will be age 50 or older. Source: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division: World Population Prospects, the 2015 Revision. New York
47 5 Asia: Population by age groups Millions Percent of total population By the end of the century, Asia might have 2.2 billion people age 50 and above 1 billion more than people under the age of 25. Source: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division: World Population Prospects, the 2015 Revision. New York
48 5 Africa: Population by age groups Millions Percent of total population Today, 60% of Africa s population are children and young adults under the age of 25. Source: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division: World Population Prospects, the 2015 Revision. New York
49 5 Europe: Population by age groups Millions Percent of total population In 35 years, 46% of the European population will age 50 or above. Source: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division: World Population Prospects, the 2015 Revision. New York
50 5 Latin America: Population by age groups Millions Percent of total population Within only 35 years, the percentage of people age 50 and above will increase in Latin America and the Caribbean from 21% today to 38%. Source: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division: World Population Prospects, the 2015 Revision. New York
51 5 Northern America: Population by age groups Millions Percent of total population Over the 150 year period from 1950 to 2100, the number of people age 50 and above will increase from 39 million to 221 million. Source: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division: World Population Prospects, the 2015 Revision. New York
52 5 Population age structure Population by age groups in percent of total population, Africa Europe Africa has the challenge but also the opportunity of many young people. Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2013): World Population Prospects, the 2012 Revision. New York
53 5 Population age structure Population by age groups in percent of total population, Africa Europe Europe s demographic window has closed; high old-age dependency burden. Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2013): World Population Prospects, the 2012 Revision. New York
54 Prime working-age population(age years) percent of total population Window of economic opportunity
55 Population age 50+ percent of total population Population Ageing
56 World Population Prospects 6 Population dynamics: Fertility & Mortality Both in Africa and in Europe the current levels of fertility are unsustainable. In Africa they cause a population explosion; in Europe the cause population aging and decline.
57 6 The demographic transition model The unprecedented increase in the world population did not happen because we were breeding like rabbits, but because we were no longer dying like flies.
58 6 Asia: Birth rate, death rate / births, deaths Declining birth rate Declining number of births Crude Birth Rate / Crude Death Rate (births / deaths per 1000 of population) Number of births and deaths (in 1000) Asia: Low crude birth rate + low crude death rate = but still population growth Source: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division: World Population Prospects, the 2015 Revision. New York
59 6 Africa: Birth rate, death rate / births, deaths Declining birth rate Rising number of births Crude Birth Rate / Crude Death Rate (births / deaths per 1000 of population) Number of births and deaths (in 1000) Africa: High crude birth rate + low crude death rate = high population growth Source: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division: World Population Prospects, the 2015 Revision. New York
60 6 Europe: Birth rate, death rate / births, deaths Death rate higher than birth rate Slight population decline Crude Birth Rate / Crude Death Rate (births / deaths per 1000 of population) Number of births and deaths (in 1000) Europe: Crude birth rate < crude death rate = population decline Source: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division: World Population Prospects, the 2015 Revision. New York
61 6 Latin America: Birth rate, death rate / births, deaths Birth rates still higher than birth rate Population growth Crude Birth Rate / Crude Death Rate (births / deaths per 1000 of population) Number of births and deaths (in 1000) Latin America: Crude birth rate > crude death rate = population increase Source: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division: World Population Prospects, the 2015 Revision. New York
62 6 Northern America: Birth rate, death rate / births, deaths Birth rate higher than death rate Population increase Crude Birth Rate / Crude Death Rate (births / deaths per 1000 of population) Number of births and deaths (in 1000) Northern America: Crude birth rate > crude death rate = population growth Source: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division: World Population Prospects, the 2015 Revision. New York
63 6 Distribution of births by major area Note: Bubble size is relative to the absolute number of births, with numbers referring to the interpolated annual number of births (thousands) Source: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division: World Fertility Patterns, 2013 (based on the 2012 Revision). New York
64 6 Distribution of births by major area Note: Bubble size is relative to the absolute number of births, with numbers referring to the interpolated annual number of births (thousands) Source: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division: World Fertility Patterns, 2013 (based on the 2012 Revision). New York
65 6 Distribution of births by major area Note: Bubble size is relative to the absolute number of births, with numbers referring to the interpolated annual number of births (thousands) Source: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division: World Fertility Patterns, 2013 (based on the 2012 Revision). New York
66 6 Net-Reproduction-Rates (daughters per woman) Major regions Selected countries Source: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division: World Population Prospects, the 2015 Revision. New York
67 6 Net-Reproduction-Rate: Selected regions Number of daughters per women Source: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division: World Population Prospects, the 2015 Revision. New York
68 6 Net-Reproduction-Rate: Selected regions Africa: Population is almost doubling between generations 1.94 Asia: Population is shrinking by 3% between generations Northern America: Population is shrinking by 10% between generation Europe: Population is shrinking by 24% between generations The Net-Reproduction-Rate is the average number of daughters that female members of a birth cohort would bear during their reproductive life span if they were subject throughout their lives to the observed age-specific fertility and mortality rates of the given time period. The NRR is expressed as the number of daughters per woman. Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York
69 6 Net-Reproduction-Rates: All countries countries NRR > countries NRR > countries NRR > 1 23 countries NRR > 1
70 Thank you! For more details and in-depth analyses go to:
71 Worldwide attention to UN World Population Prospects
72 Disclaimer This presentation is not a United Nations publication. It is a private project, authored by Gerhard K. Heilig. Views expressed are those of the author and do not imply the expression of any opinion on the part of any international organization or research institute. This presentation is using data from the official United Nations World Population Prospects (WPP), the World Urbanization Prospects (WUP) and the Probabilistic Population Projections (PPP) for all countries of the world, as published by the United Nations Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs. The official data are available on the following official websites: For the World Population Prospects: For the World Urbanization Prospects: For the Probabilistic Population Projections:
73 Copyright I, the copyright holder of this work, hereby publish it under the following licenses: This presentation is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported license. You are free: to share to copy, distribute and transmit the work to remix to adapt the work Under the following conditions: attribution You must attribute the work in the manner specified below (but not in any way that suggests that I endorse you or your use of the work). share alike If you alter, transform, or build upon this work, you may distribute the resulting work only under the same or similar license to this one. I, the copyright holder, request that you attribute this work as: UN World Population Prospects, the 2015 Revision. PowerPoint presentation by Gerhard K. Heilig, 7 September, 2015 (
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