ICICI Securities Limited BPCL (BHAPET) Subsidy burden drags bottomline in the red. Result Update. Valuation WHAT S CHANGED.

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1 Result Update Rating matrix Rating : Hold Target : 727 Target Period : months Potential Upside : 6% Key Financials ( Crore) FY1 FY11E FY12E FY13E Revenues EBITDA Net Profit Valuation summary FY1 FY11E FY12E FY13E EPS ( ) PE (x) Target PE (x) EV to EBITDA (x) Price to book (x) RoNW (%) RoCE (%) Stock data Market Cap Crore Debt (FY1) Crore Cash + Liq. Invsts (FY1) Crore EV Crore 52 week H/L 84 / 529 Equity capital Crore Face value 1 MF Holding (%) 9.2 FII Holding (%) 7. Price movement 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, Sep-1 Nov-1 Price (R.H.S) Feb-11 May-11 Nifty (L.H.S) Aug WHAT S CHANGED August 18, 211 PRICE TARGET... Changed from 712 to 727 EPS (FY12E)... Changed from 51.7 to 4.6 EPS (FY13E)... Changed from 6.4 to 59.9 RATING...Unchanged Subsidy burden drags bottomline in the red Bharat Petroleum Corp (BPCL) declared its Q1FY12 results with revenues of crore, EBITDA loss of crore and PAT of crore. The results were below our estimates mainly on account of higher net under-recoveries and lower refining margins. The downstream companies shared a net subsidy burden of 32.32% in Q1FY12. The GRM decreased to $3.2 per barrel in Q1FY12 compared to $3.57 per barrel in Q1FY11 mainly on account of lower throughput and plant shutdowns at the Kochi refinery. We have maintained our Brent crude oil prices estimates of US$1 per barrel, going forward. We assume net underrecoveries for downstream companies at 8.8% in FY12E and FY13E. We estimate BPCL will report EPS of 5.8 and 53.5 in FY12E and FY13E, respectively. We recommend a HOLD rating on the stock with a price target of 727. Highlights of the quarter Crude oil throughput declined 7.1% YoY from 5.6 MMT in Q1FY11 to 5.2 MMT in Q1FY12. The gross refining margins (GRMs) decreased from US$3.57 per barrel in Q1FY11 to US$3.2 per barrel in Q1FY12 on account of lower throughput and shutdowns at the Kochi refinery. The total market sales increased 5.5% YoY from 7.4 MMT in Q1FY11 to 7.8 MMT in Q1FY12. The net subsidy burden for downstream companies in this quarter is 32.32% in Q1FY12, which led to net under-recoveries of 3356 crore in Q1FY12. Valuation BPCL (BHAPET) 683 BPCL is trading at 16.8x FY12E and 11.4x FY13E EPS of 4.6 and 59.9, respectively. We recommend the stock with a HOLD rating and price target of 727 (valuation based on average of P/BV multiple: 666 per share and P/E multiple: 788 per share). Analyst s name Mayur Matani Nishit Zota Exhibit 1: Financial Performance ( Crore) Q1FY12A Q1FY12E Q1FY11 Q4FY11 YoY Gr.(%) QoQ Gr.(%) Revenues EBITDA EBITDA Margin (%) bps 17 bps Depreciation Interest Reported PAT EPS ( )

2 Exhibit 2: Total sales and throughput Crude oil throughput declined 7.1% YoY from 5.6 MMT in Q1FY11 to 5.2 MMT in Q1FY12 on account of lower throughput and shutdowns at the Kochi refinery. Going forward, the expansion of its Kochi refinery would increase its throughput volumes in FY12E and FY13E (mmt) (mmt) 5 Q1FY11 Q2FY11 Q3FY11 Q4FY11 Q1FY12 Total sales (LHS) Throughput (RHS) Exhibit 3: Refining margins trend The gross refining margins (GRMs) decreased from US$3.6 per barrel in Q1FY11 to US$3. per barrel in Q1FY12 on account of maintenance as well as unplanned shutdown in the Kochi refinery US$ per barrel Q1FY11 Q2FY11 Q3FY11 Q4FY11 Q1FY12 Exhibit 4: EBITDA and EBITDA margins trend 4 9 The EBITDA decreased on account of lower refining margins and higher net under-recoveries for the quarter Crore Q1FY11 Q2FY11 Q3FY11 Q4FY11 Q1FY EBITDA margin (%) EBITDA EBITDA margins Page 2

3 Net subsidy burden of 32.32% in Q1FY12 for downstream companies led to under-recoveries of 3356 crore in Q1FY12 Exhibit 5: Sharing of gross under-recoveries ( Crore) Q1FY11 Q2FY11 Q3FY11 Q4FY11 Q1FY12 Gross under-recoveries Discount from upstream companies Grant from the government Net under-recoveries Exhibit 6: Quarterly profit and loss account ( Crore) ( Crore) Q1FY12 Percent. (%) Q1FY11 Percent. (%) Revenues (Increase) / Decrease in stock in trade Consumption of raw materials Purchase of traded goods Employees Cost Other Expenditure Total Expenditure EBITDA Depreciation EBIT Interest Other Inc /Exp /Extra Ordinary Item PBT Total Tax.... PAT Assumptions We have maintained our Brent crude oil prices estimates at US$1 per barrel, going forward. We have also assumed net under-recoveries for downstream companies at 8.8% in FY12E and FY13E. Valuations BPCL is trading at 16.8x FY12E and 11.4x FY13E EPS of 4.6 and 59.9, respectively. We recommend the stock with a HOLD rating and a price target of 727 (valuation based on average of P/BV multiple: 666 per share and P/E multiple: 788 per share). Exhibit 7: Valuation Table Sales Sales Gr. EPS EPS Gr. PE EV/EBITDA (x) RoNW (%) RoCE (%) Year ( Crore) (%) ( ) (%) (x) FY FY11E FY12E FY13E Page 3

4 Exhibit 8: Valuation Table Valuation based on Price / BV Multiple Adjusted Book Value for FY13E ( Crore) Adjusted number of shares (Crore) 32.8 Adjusted Book Value per share ( ) 437. Add: Listed investments (25% discount to CMP) 82.7 Add: E&P value 86.2 Book Value of core business ( per share) 65.8 Multiple 1.1 Fair Value per share ( ) 666 Valuation based on P / E multiple Profit after tax for FY13E ( Crore) Less: Other Income adjusted for tax ( Crore) 53.4 Adjusted profit after tax for FY13E ( Crore) Number of shares (Crore) 36.2 Adjusted EPS for FY13E ( ) 45.2 Multiple 1.5 Fair value per share without investments ( ) Add: Value of Investments ( per share) Listed investments (25% discount to CMP) 74.9 Bharat Oman Refinery Ltd 59.4 Numaligarh Refinery 12.5 E&P value (BPRL) 86.2 Treasury shares 63.7 Other Investments 16.8 Fair value per share ( ) 788 Weighted Target Price ( per share) 727 Source: ICICIdirect.com Research Page 4

5 ICICIdirect.com Coverage Universe BPCL Sales( Cr.) EPS ( ) PE (x) EV/EBITDA (x) RoNW (%) RoCE (%) Idirect Code BHAPET CMP 683. FY Target 712. FY11E FY12E MCap Upside (%) 4.2 FY13E HPCL Idirect Code HINPET CMP 38. FY Target 472. FY11E FY12E MCap Upside (%) 24.2 FY13E IOCL Idirect Code INDOIL CMP 32. FY Target FY11E FY12E MCap Upside (%) 17.6 FY13E Exhibit 9: Recommendation History Sep-1 Oct-1 Nov-1 Jan-11 Feb-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Price Target Price Exhibit 1: Recent Releases Date Event CMP Target Price Rating 22-Mar-11 Initiating Coverage BUY 8-Jun-11 Q4FY11 Result Update HOLD 29-Jun-11 Event Update HOLD 17-Aug-11 Q1FY12 Result Update HOLD Source: ICICIdirect.com Research Page 5

6 RATING RATIONALE ICICIdirect.com endeavours to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICIdirect.com assigns ratings to its stocks according to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorises them as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional target price is defined as the analysts' valuation for a stock. Strong Buy: >15%/2% for large caps / midcaps, respectively; Buy: Between 1% and 15%/2% for large caps / midcaps, respectively; Hold: Up to +/-1%; Sell: -1% or more; Pankaj Pandey Head Research ICICIdirect.com Research Desk, ICICI Securities Limited, 7 th Floor, Akruti Centre Point, MIDC Main Road, Marol Naka, Andheri (East) Mumbai 4 93 ANALYST CERTIFICATION We /I, Mayur Matani MBA Nishit Zota MBA research analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our personal views about any and all of the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. Analysts aren't registered as research analysts by FINRA and might not be an associated person of the ICICI Securities Inc. Disclosures: ICICI Securities Limited (ICICI Securities) and its affiliates are a full-service, integrated investment banking, investment management and brokerage and financing group. We along with affiliates are leading underwriter of securities and participate in virtually all securities trading markets in India. We and our affiliates have investment banking and other business relationship with a significant percentage of companies covered by our Investment Research Department. Our research professionals provide important input into our investment banking and other business selection processes. ICICI Securities generally prohibits its analysts, persons reporting to analysts and their dependent family members from maintaining a financial interest in the securities or derivatives of any companies that the analysts cover. The information and opinions in this report have been prepared by ICICI Securities and are subject to change without any notice. The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of ICICI Securities. While we would endeavour to update the information herein on reasonable basis, ICICI Securities, its subsidiaries and associated companies, their directors and employees ( ICICI Securities and affiliates ) are under no obligation to update or keep the information current. Also, there may be regulatory, compliance or other reasons that may prevent ICICI Securities from doing so. Non-rated securities indicate that rating on a particular security has been suspended temporarily and such suspension is in compliance with applicable regulations and/or ICICI Securities policies, in circumstances where ICICI Securities is acting in an advisory capacity to this company, or in certain other circumstances. This report is based on information obtained from public sources and sources believed to be reliable, but no independent verification has been made nor is its accuracy or completeness guaranteed. This report and information herein is solely for informational purpose and may not be used or considered as an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. Though disseminated to all the customers simultaneously, not all customers may receive this report at the same time. ICICI Securities will not treat recipients as customers by virtue of their receiving this report. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your specific circumstances. The securities discussed and opinions expressed in this report may not be suitable for all investors, who must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial positions and needs of specific recipient. This may not be taken in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment by any recipient. The recipient should independently evaluate the investment risks. The value and return of investment may vary because of changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates or any other reason. ICICI Securities and affiliates accept no liabilities for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Investors are advised to see Risk Disclosure Document to understand the risks associated before investing in the securities markets. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections. Forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. ICICI Securities and its affiliates might have managed or co-managed a public offering for the subject company in the preceding twelve months. ICICI Securities and affiliates might have received compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from the date of this report for services in respect of public offerings, corporate finance, investment banking or other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction. ICICI Securities and affiliates expect to receive compensation from the companies mentioned in the report within a period of three months following the date of publication of the research report for services in respect of public offerings, corporate finance, investment banking or other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction. It is confirmed that Mayur Matani MBA Nishit Zota MBA research analysts and the authors of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months. Our research professionals are paid in part based on the profitability of ICICI Securities, which include earnings from Investment Banking and other business. ICICI Securities or its subsidiaries collectively do not own 1% or more of the equity securities of the Company mentioned in the report as of the last day of the month preceding the publication of the research report. It is confirmed that Mayur Matani MBA Nishit Zota MBA research analysts and the authors of this report or any of their family members does not serve as an officer, director or advisory board member of the companies mentioned in the report. ICICI Securities may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with and reach different conclusion from the information presented in this report. ICICI Securities and affiliates may act upon or make use of information contained in the report prior to the publication thereof. This report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject ICICI Securities and affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. The securities described herein may or may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain category of investors. Persons in whose possession this document may come are required to inform themselves of and to observe such restriction. Page 6

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