Aban Offshore (ABALLO) 180

Transcription

1 Result Update Rating matrix Rating : Sell Target : 145 Target Period : 12 months Potential Upside : -19% What s changed? Target Changed from 223 to 145 EPS FY16E Changed from 73.1 to 9.7 EPS FY17E Changed from 85.9 to 26.7 Rating Changed from Hold to Sell Quarterly performance Q3FY16 Q3FY15 YoY (%) Q2FY16 QoQ (%) Revenue , EBITDA EBITDA (%) bps bps PAT Key financials Crore FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E Revenues 3, , , ,414.8 EBITDA 2, , , ,944.3 Net Profit EPS ( ) Valuation summary FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E P/E Target P/E EV / EBITDA P/BV RoNW (%) RoCE (%) Stock data Particular Amount Market Capitalization ( Crore) 1,039.6 Total Debt (FY15) ( Crore) 14,059.7 Cash and Investments (FY15) ( Crore) EV ( Crore) 14, week H/L 519/176 Equity capital ( Crore) 11.6 Face value ( ) 2.0 Price performance Return % 1M 3M 6M 12M Aban Offshore (13.7) (21.8) (39.5) (62.3) ONGC (6.2) (14.7) (24.1) (38.7) Oil India (8.0) (21.0) (21.2) (36.8) Cairn India (15.2) (26.8) (32.4) (52.7) Research Analyst Mayur Matani mayur.matani@icicisecurities.com Harshal Mehta harshal.mehta@icicisecurities.com Bleak outlook ahead February 3, 2016 Aban Offshore (ABALLO) 180 Aban Offshore reported a 25.9% QoQ decline in revenue to crore, below our estimate of crore. The average revenue per rig per day declined 25.9%QoQ to 44.3 lakh in Q3FY16, below our estimate of 52.7 lakh EBITDA at 368 crore (declined 38.5%QoQ) came in below our estimate of crore while the EBITDA margin at 50.2% (contracted 1029 bps) also came in below our estimate of 54.9% The company reported a loss of 86.2 crore that came in below our profit estimate of 53.4 crore. Higher-than-expected interest cost (increased 4.7% QoQ) and lower other income QoQ also contributed to the reported loss Continued low crude price environment to weigh on rigs contract renewal Low global crude oil prices have led to increased concerns over the lower utilisation of rigs currently under marketing and that are due for renewals in the near term horizon. During the current quarter, the contract ended for DD3, DD6 and DD8, whereas, DD2, DD5, DD7, Aban 5 and Tahara remained unutilised. Aban s management was able to renegotiate contract for DD2, DD4, Aban 2 and Aban 7 rigs but at a considerable discount to the earlier contract day rates. On a positive note, the lifting of economic sanctions against Iran on January 16, 2016 by the UN, EU and partially by the US, has renewed hopes of swifter renegotiated contracts for Aban s DD6, Aban 6 (contract ends on February 2016) and Aban 8, which are currently deployed in Iran, along with the recently contracted DD2 and DD4, which provided some respite to the company. However, renewal of unutilised assets will be very crucial for the profitability of the company, going forward. Renewal of loans /managing interest costs to be key Aban has initiated discussion with its bondholders and recently gained approval to extend the bond tenor of $87.5 million guaranteed by DD1 Pte Ltd maturing in December It has been extended by two years in an amortised repayment way, at ~$8 million per quarter that the company proposes to pay from the cash generated by DD1. The capacity utilisation of the rigs would be the key for future cash flows and will determine the interest payments for the company, going forward. Renewal of loans at lower costs in future will be crucial for the company next year. Stark challenges remain in managing business Although Iran post-sanction prospects offers improved cash flows to Aban Offshore in the short term, its lower capacity utilisation of rigs (eight under marketing and two up for renewal in the near term) and renegotiation of rigs at lower day rates vs. earlier contractual prices, would remain key challenges for the company. Servicing interest costs in the current grim scenario of low crude prices will be important in the next year or two. We have assumed lower than earlier renewal day rates and asset utilisation for rigs for FY16E and FY17E. New contracts for assets that are currently under marketing would be key to Aban s operational performance in the medium term. Lower prices and inability to renew assets continue to remain key risks to earnings. We have a SELL recommendation on the stock with a target price of 145. ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research

2 Variance analysis Q3FY16 Q3FY16E Q3FY15 YoY (%) Q2FY16 QoQ (%) Comments Declined due to lower utilisation of rigs as well as contract renegotiation of DD2, Total Revenues , DD4 and Aban 7 at lower than estimated day rates Raw materials costs Employees Cost Other Expenses Total Expenditure EBITDA EBITDA margins (%) bps bps Depreciation EBIT Interest Increase in the libor rates led to the increased interest cost increased QoQ Other Income Extra Ordinary Item NA 0.0 NA PBT Total Tax Higher than estimated tax rate of 37.3% vs. 22.9% expected PAT Key Metrics Exchange Rate ($/ ) Revenue/rig/day ( lakh) Declined due to lower utilisation of rigs as well as contract renegotiation of DD2, DD4 and Aban 7 at lower than estimated day rates Change in estimates FY16E FY17E ( Crore) Old New % Change Old New % Change Comments Revenue 3, , , , EBITDA 2, , , , Change in estimates as the situation continues to remain uncertain on the rig utilisation front EBITDA Margin (%) bps bps PAT Decline in estimated PAT due to negative operating leverage EPS ( ) Assumptions FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E Exchange Rate ($/ ) Revenue/rig/day ( lakh) Unchanged due to continued lower utilisation of fleets and lower day rates Current Earlier ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research Page 2

3 Company Analysis Continued low crude price environment to weigh on rig contract renewal Low global crude oil prices have led to increased concerns over the lower utilisation of rigs currently under marketing and that are due for renewal in the near term horizon. During the current quarter, the contract ended for DD3, DD6 and DD8, whereas, DD2, DD5, DD7, Aban 5 and Tahara remained unutilised. The management was able to renegotiate contract for DD2, DD4, Aban 2 and Aban 7 rigs but at a considerable discount to earlier contract day rates. On a positive note, lifting of economic sanctions against Iran on January 16, 2016 by the UN, EU and partially by the US, has renewed hopes of swifter renegotiated contracts for Aban s DD6, Aban 6 (contract ends on February 2016) and Aban 8, which are currently deployed in Iran, along with the recently contracted DD2 and DD4, which provided some respite to the company. However, the renewal of unutilised assets will be very crucial for the profitability of the company, going forward. Due to the sharp decline in crude oil prices, we assume lower renewal rates and asset utilisation for rigs. Exhibit 1: Topline performance trend Crore Q1FY15 Q2FY15 Q3FY15 Q4FY15 FY15 Q1FY16 Q2FY16 Q3FY16 FY16E FY17E Exhibit 2: EBITDA performance trend We expect EBITDA margins to stabilise at 55-57% in FY16E and FY17E Crore % 0 Q3FY15 Q4FY15 FY15 Q1FY16 Q2FY16 Q3FY16 FY16E FY17E 46.0 EBITDA OPM ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research Page 3

4 Renewal of loans /managing interest costs to be key Aban has initiated discussion with its bondholders and recently gained approval to extend the bond tenor of $87.5 million guaranteed by DD1 Pte Ltd maturing in December It has been extended by two years in an amortised repayment way, with ~$8 million per quarter that the company proposes to pay from cash generated by DD1. The capacity utilisation of rigs would be the key for future cash flows and will determine the interest payments for the company, going forward. Renewal of loans at lower costs in future will be crucial for the company in the next year. Exhibit 3: Trends in interest expense as percentage of EBITDA Aban s interest cost to EBITDA ratio has declined from 59.4% in FY13 to 45.9% in FY15 Crore Q3FY14 Q4FY14 Q1FY15 Q2FY15 Q3FY15 Q4FY15 Q1FY16 Q2FY16 Q3FY % Interest EBITDA Interest exp as percentage of EBITDA Exhibit 4: PAT performance trend Crore % Q3FY15 Q4FY15 FY15 Q1FY16 Q2FY16 Q3FY16 FY16E FY17E PAT NPM ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research Page 4

5 Outlook & valuation Although Iran post-sanctions prospects offers improved cash flows to Aban Offshore in the short term, its lower capacity utilisation of rigs (eight under marketing and two up for renewal in the near term) and renegotiation of the rigs at lower day rates than earlier contractual prices, would remain key challenges for the company. Servicing interest costs in the current grim scenario of low crude prices will be important for the next year or two. We have assumed lower than earlier renewal day rates and asset utilisation for the rigs for FY16E and FY17E. New contracts for assets which are currently under marketing would be key to Aban s operational performance in the medium term. Lower prices and inability to renew assets continue to remain key risks to earnings. We have a SELL recommendation on the stock with a target price of 145. Exhibit 5: Valuation Net Worth ( crore) Number of Shares (crore) 5.8 Book Value Per Share ( ) Target Price to Book Multiple (x) 0.15 Target Price ( ) 145 Source: ICICIdirect.com Research Exhibit 6: Valuations Year Sales Sales Gr. EPS EPS Gr. PE RoNW ( Crore) (%) ( ) (%) (x) EV/EBITDA (x) (%) RoCE (%) FY14 3, , FY15 4, FY16E 3,363.3 (16.8) 9.7 (89.1) FY17E 3, ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research Page 5

6 Company snapshot 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, Target Price: Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Source: Bloomberg, Company, ICICIdirect.com Research Key events Date Event Oct-09 Hitech Drilling Services India Ltd merges with Aban Offshore May-10 Aban Offshore's semisubmersible ship owned by one of its subsidiaries, which was engaged in contract at offshore Venezuela, sank leading to a probe by Venezuela Nov-10 Raises 698 crore via QIPs Mar-11 Enters into agreement with Petrolia ASA, Norway to sell its entire holding of 50% shares in Venture Drilling AS for a consideration of 150 crore Oct-12 Receives letter for deployment of jack-up rig Deep Driller 3 from Petronas Carigali Sdn. Bhd., for a firm period of three years. Estimated revenues from the deployment Jun-13 Aban Offshore receives letter of award (LoA) from ONGC for deployment of drillship Aban Ice for a firm period of thre years. The total value of the LOA is Jan-14 Aban Offshore receives deployment of jack-up rig Deep Driller 5 for a firm period of one year and an optional period of a year. Estimated revenues from the May-14 To consider long term funds through issue of FCCBs, ADRs, GDRs and issue of equity related securities, etc. to qualified institutional buyers Oct-14 Secures an order from ONGC for 1114 crore Dec-14 Stock price declines due to sharp reduction in the crude oil prices Oct-15 Deep Drilling 1 Pte. Ltd (DD1PL) proposes to its bondholders for extending the bond tenor of outstanding principal US$ 87.5 million, maturing in December Dec-15 Bondholders of DD1PL accept the proposal to amend bond agreement reached in 2011 Top 10 Shareholders Shareholding Pattern Rank Name Latest Filing Date % O/S Position (m) Change (m) (in %) Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 1 India Offshore, Inc. 30-Sep Promoter Aban Investments Pvt. Ltd. 30/Sep/ FII Abraham (Reji) 30-Sep DII Abraham (Deepa Reji) 30/Sep/ Others Abraham (Saley) 30-Sep ICICI Prudential Asset Management Co. Ltd. 30-Sep Aban Ventures Pvt. Ltd. 30/Sep/ Life Insurance Corporation of India 30-Sep Dimensional Fund Advisors, L.P. 30/Nov/ Mellon Capital Management Corporation 31-Dec Source: Reuters, ICICIdirect.com Research Recent Activity Investor name Investor name Investor name Value (m) Shares (m) Investor name Value (m) Shares (m) Metisq Capital Pty Ltd Old Mutual Global Investors (UK) Limited AXA Investment Managers Asia (Singapore) Ltd Mellon Capital Management Corporation Nordea Funds Oy Van Eck Associates Corporation BlackRock Institutional Trust Company, N.A Source: Reuters, ICICIdirect.com Research ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research Page 6

7 Financial summary Profit and loss statement crore (Year-end March) FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E Total operating Income 3, , , ,414.8 Growth (%) Raw materials costs Employees Cost Other Expenditure Total Operating Expenditure EBITDA 2, , , ,944.3 Growth (%) Depreciation Interest Other Income PBT Total Tax PAT Growth (%) PAT (after JV share) EPS ( ) Cash flow statement crore (Year-end March) FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E Profit after Tax Add: Depreciation (Inc)/dec in Current Assets Inc/(dec) in CL and Provisions Others CF from operating activities 1, , ,396.2 (Inc)/dec in Investments (Inc)/dec in Fixed Assets -2, , , Others CF from investing activities -1, , Issue/(Buy back) of Equity Inc/(dec) in loan funds Others CF from financing activities Net Cash flow Opening Cash Closing Cash Balance sheet crore (Year-end March) FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E Source of Funds Equity Capital Reserve and Surplus 3, , , ,580.5 Total Shareholders funds 4, , , ,873.1 Total Debt 14, , , ,091.1 Deferred Tax Liability Long term provisions Total Liabilities 18, , , ,040.4 Assets Gross Block 22, , , ,770.0 Less: Acc Depreciation 4, , , ,590.0 Net Block 17, , , ,180.0 Capital WIP Total Fixed Assets 17, , , ,198.7 Investments Inventory Debtors 1, , , ,309.8 Loans and Advances Other Current Assets Cash Total Current Assets 2, , , ,914.2 Current Liabilities 1, , , Provisions Total CL and Provisions 1, , , ,085.6 Net Working Capital , Miscellaneous expense Application of Funds 18, , , ,040.4 Key ratios (Year-end March) FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E Per share data ( ) EPS Cash EPS BV DPS Cash Per Share Operating Ratios (%) EBITDA Margin PBT / Total Operating income PAT Margin Inventory days Debtor days Creditor days Return Ratios (%) RoE RoCE RoIC Valuation Ratios (x) P/E EV / EBITDA EV / Net Sales Market Cap / Sales Price to Book Value Solvency Ratios Debt/EBITDA Debt / Equity Current Ratio Quick Ratio ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research Page 7

8 ICICIdirect.com coverage universe (Oil & Gas) CMP M Cap EPS ( ) P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) RoCE (%) RoE (%) Sector / Company ( ) TP( ) Rating ( Cr) FY15 FY16E FY17E FY15 FY16E FY17E FY15 FY16E FY17E FY15 FY16E FY17E FY15 FY16E FY17E Aban Offshore (ABALLO) Sell 1, Cairn India (CAIIND) Hold 22, GAIL (India) (GAIL) Buy 46, Gujarat Gas (GUJGAS) Hold 7, Gulf Oil Lubricants (GULO) Hold 2, Hindustan Petroleum (HINPET) Hold 27, Indian Oil Corporation (INDOIL) Hold 97, Indraprastha Gas (INDGAS) Buy 7, Mangalore Refinery (MRPL) Buy 11, Oil India Limited (OILIND) Buy 21, ONGC (ONGC) Hold 186, Petronet LNG (PETLNG) Buy 19, ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research Page 8

9 RATING RATIONALE ICICIdirect.com endeavours to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICIdirect.com assigns ratings to its stocks according to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorises them as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional target price is defined as the analysts' valuation for a stock. Strong Buy: >15%/20% for large caps/midcaps, respectively, with high conviction; Buy: >10%/15% for large caps/midcaps, respectively; Hold: Up to +/-10%; Sell: -10% or more; Pankaj Pandey Head Research pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com ICICIdirect.com Research Desk, ICICI Securities Limited, 1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre, Road No 7, MIDC, Andheri (East) Mumbai research@icicidirect.com ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research Page 9

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