RamKrishna Forgings Ltd.

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1 January 3, 2014 RamKrishna Forgings Ltd. Poised for Growth CMP INR 81 Target INR Coverage Follow Up BUY Key Share Data Face Value (INR) 10 Equity Capital (in INR Million) Market Cap (in INR Million) 1, wk High/Low 131/52 One Year Avg. Daily Vol (BSE) 2661 BSE Code 532,527 NSE Code RKFORGE Reuters Code RKFO.NS Bloomberg Code RMKF:IN Shareholding Pattern (as on 30th Sep. 2013) Others, 17.98% FII's, 37.89% Source: Company Key Financials (INR Million) DII's, 1.01% Promoter 43.12% Particulars FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E Net Sales 5, , , ,118.1 Growth (%) 22.4% -19.4% 11.9% 57.5% EBITDA ,081.2 PAT Growth (%) 9.8% -54.6% -33.9% 273.6% EPS (INR) BVPS (INR) Key Financials Ratios Particulars FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E P/E (x) P/BVPS (x) Mcap/Sales (x) EV/EBITDA (x) ROCE (%) 15.1% 8.6% 5.3% 8.8% ROE (%) 12.9% 4.3% 2.6% 8.5% EBITDA Mar (%) 16.2% 14.9% 13.6% 15.2% PAT Mar (%) 4.8% 2.7% 1.6% 3.8% Debt - Equity (x) Yr price performance RKFL vis à vis BSE Small Cap 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% -50% -60% Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Dec-13 RKFL Analyst: Nikhil Saboo BSE Small Cap Ph: , M: Company Background RamKrishna Forgings Ltd. (RKFL), promoted by Mr. Mahabir Prasad Jalan, is a medium sized forgings company. It manufactures products for automobile (sales contribution ~60-70%) followed by railways (sales contribution ~10%), defence, and mining sectors. RKFL has also forayed into agriculture equipments and power sector. It has 5 plants, out of which 1 is in Liluah, West Bengal and 4 are in Jamshedpur, Jharkhand. Investment Rationale Capacity expansion plan to propel growth RKFL is setting up three press lines of 12,500 tons, 4,500 tons and 3,150 tons at Kolabira - Jamshedpur, Jharkhand at a total cost of USD 100 million. The press of 4,500 tons and 3,150 tons will get commissioned in March 2014 while 12,500 will get commissioned in September 2014 and will manufacture front axle beams, crankshafts, stub axels and connecting rods. Post the commencement of the press, we expect the sales to grow at a CAGR of 32.8 percent over FY13-15E to INR 7,118.1 million while net profit during the same period is expected to grow at a CAGR of 57.1 percent to INR million. Strong Clientele RKFL is preferred supplier for OEM s like Tata Motors Ltd, Ashok Leyland, Eicher etc and is also a global supplier for commercial vehicle majors like Meritor, DANA etc. In earth moving and mining sector, its clients include BEML, Indian Railways, etc, while in the engineering sector RKFL caters to BHEL, Federal Mogul and others. RKFL has tied up with some of the biggest vendors in Latin America and post commencement of new plant it is expected to significantly increase its exports in Latin America and USA. Exports contributed 13.5 percent to the company s topline in FY13. Industry weakness to continue RKFL principally supplies its components to commercial vehicle (CV) segment and more particularly to M&HCV, which has witnessed significant reduction in demand of forgings both domestically and globally. Going forward, we expect the domestic CV segment demand to remain frail, though recovery is expected in FY16 led by improving macroeconomic scenario. Valuation We rate a BUY rating on RKFL with a price target of INR 117.2/share, implying an upside potential of 44.7 percent from current levels. Our target price is based on RKFL s FY15E EV/EBITDA multiple of 8.0x. SKP Securities Ltd Page 1 of 5

2 Exhibit: Q2FY14 Result Review Figs. in INR Million Particulars Q2FY14 Q2FY13 %Change Q1FY14 %Change Net Sales , % % Other Operating Income % % Total Income , % 1, % Expenditure % % Material Consumed % % (as a %age of Total Income) 53.5% 58.4% (489) bps 61.7% (820) bps Power & Fuel Cost % % (as a %age of Total Income) 11.4% 10.2% 118 bps 11.7% (30) bps Employees Cost % % (as a %age of Total Income) 8.3% 5.8% 251 bps 7.1% (120) bps Admin & Other Expenses % % (as a %age of Total Income) 20.2% 14.9% 525 bps 16.2% (390) bps EBITDA % % EBITDA Margin (%) 13.03% 15.95% (291) bps 11.00% (200) bps Depreciation % % EBIT % % Other Income % % Interest Expense % % Profit Before Tax (PBT) % % Income Tax % % Effective Tax Rate (%) 36.2% 31.9% 34.1% Profit After Tax (PAT) % % PAT Margins (%) 1.52% 3.79% (228) bps 1.41% 10 bps Diluted EPS % % Source: Company Data, SKP Research SKP Securities Ltd Page 2 of 5

3 Net Profit to grow at a CAGR of 57.1 percent over FY13-15E Net profit is expected to grow at a CAGR 57.1 percent to INR billion over FY13-15E Exhibit: Net Sales & PAT Figs. in INR Billion FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E Net Sales Adjusted PAT PAT margins to remain flat over FY13-15E Exhibit: EBITDA & PAT Margins 20.0% 17.0% EBITDA margins to improve marginally 26 bps while PAT margins to improve by 109 bps over FY13-FY15E 14.0% 11.0% 8.0% 5.0% 2.0% -1.0% FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E EBITDA Margins PAT Margins Overleveraged Balance Sheet on account of expansion Exhibit: CFO & D/E Ratio Debt/Equity ratio to remain at elevated levels on back of expansion plan Figs. in INR Billion FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E Cash Flow from Operations (CFO) D/E (x) SKP Securities Ltd Page 3 of 5

4 Exhibit: Income Statement Figures in INR Million Exhibit: Balance Sheet Figures in INR Million Particulars FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E Particulars FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E Net Sales 5, , , ,118.1 Share Capital Growth (%) 22.4% 19.4% 11.9% 57.5% Share Warrants Expenditure 4, , , ,036.8 Reserve & Surplus 1, , , ,910.4 Material Consumed 2, , , ,683.6 Shareholders Funds 1, , , ,192.3 Power & Fuel Cost Total Debt 1, , , ,489.2 Employee Cost Deferred Tax (Net) Admin & Other Exp ,121.1 Total Liabilities 3, , , ,999.8 EBITDA ,081.2 EBITDA Margin (%) 16.2% 14.9% 13.6% 15.2% Net Block inc. Capital WIP Depreciation Investments EBIT Non Current Asset Other Income Current Assets 2, , , ,047.1 Interest Expense Inventories 1, , , ,935.5 Profit Before Tax (PBT) Sundry Debtors , ,691.2 Income Tax Cash & Bank Balance Profit After Tax (PAT) Other Non Current Assets Growth (%) 9.8% 54.6% 33.9% 273.6% Loans & Advances , ,993.1 PAT Margins (%) 4.8% 2.7% 1.6% 3.8% Current Liabilities & Prov 1, , , ,029.2 Diluted EPS Total Assets 3, , , ,999.8 Exhibit: Cash Flow Statement Figures in INR Million Exhibit: Ratio Analysis Particulars FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E Particulars FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E Profit Before Tax (PBT) Earning Ratios (%) Depreciation EBITDA Margin (%) 16.2% 14.9% 13.6% 15.2% Interest Provided PAT Margins (%) 4.8% 2.7% 1.6% 3.8% Chg. in Working Capital (1,143.5) (1,447.7) (1,191.9) ROCE (%) 15.1% 8.6% 5.3% 8.8% Direct Taxes Paid (79.9) (45.1) (36.4) (136.1) ROE (%) 12.9% 4.3% 2.6% 8.5% Other Charges 17.7 (12.8) Per Share Data (INR) Operating Cash Flows (584.9) (851.6) (226.4) Diluted EPS Capital Expenditure (505.0) (487.2) (1,546.0) (150.0) Cash EPS (CEPS) Investments 11.2 (58.6) (8.4) 0.0 BVPS Others (13.9) (11.1) Valuation Ratios (x) Investing Cash Flows (507.7) (556.9) (1,554.4) (150.0) P/E Changes in Equity Price/BVPS Inc / (Dec) in Debt (208.0) , EV/Sales Dividend Paid (inc tax) (40.4) (42.2) (23.4) (41.2) EV/EBITDA Interest Paid (198.5) (241.9) (256.6) (353.3) Dividend Yield (%) 1.5% 1.3% 0.9% 1.5% Others Balance Sheet Ratios Financing Cash Flows (367.4) 1, , Debt Equity Chg. in Cash & Cash Eqv (19.6) Net Debt Equity Opening Cash Balance Current Ratio Closing Cash Balance Fixed Asset Turn. Ratios Source: Company Data, SKP Research SKP Securities Ltd Page 4 of 5

5 Notes: In this connection please refer our SKP initiating coverage on RKFL dated on 4 th October 2010 and Management Meet note dated on 5 th December The above analysis and data are based on last available prices and not official closing rates. SKP Research is also available on Bloomberg, Thomson First Call & Investext Myiris, Moneycontrol, Ticker plant and ISI Securities. DISCLAIMER: This document has been issued by SKP Securities Ltd (SKP), a stock broker registered with and regulated by Securities & Exchange Board of India, for the information of its clients/potential clients and business associates/affiliates only and is for private circulation only, disseminated and available electronically and in printed form. Additional information on recommended securities may be made available on request. This document is supplied to you solely for your information and no matter contained herein may be reproduced, reprinted, sold, copied in whole or in part, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other person for any purpose, in India or into any other country without prior written consent of SKP. The distribution of this document in other jurisdictions may be strictly restricted and/ or prohibited by law, and persons into whose possession this document comes should inform themselves about such restriction and/ or prohibition, and observe any such restrictions and/ or prohibition. If you are dissatisfied with the contents of this complimentary document or with the terms of this Disclaimer, your sole and exclusive remedy is to stop using the document and SKP shall not be responsible and/ or liable in any manner. Neither this document nor the information or any opinion expressed therein should be construed as an investment advice or offer to anybody to acquire, subscribe, purchase, sell, dispose of, retain any securities or derivatives related to such securities or an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to purchase or subscribe for any investment or as an official endorsement of any investment. Any recommendation or view or opinion expressed on investments in this document is not intended to constitute investment advice and should not be intended or treated as a substitute for necessary review or validation or any professional advice. The views expressed in this document are those of the analyst which are subject to change and do not represent to be an authority on the subject. SKP may or may not subscribe to any and/ or all the views expressed herein. It is the endeavor of SKP to ensure that the analyst(s) use current, reliable, comprehensive information and obtain such information from sources, which the analyst(s) believes to be reliable. However, such information may not have been independently verified by SKP or the analyst(s). The information, opinions and views contained within this document are based upon publicly available information, considered reliable at the time of publication, which are subject to change from time to time without any prior notice. The Document may be updated anytime without any prior notice to anybody. SKP makes no guarantee, representation or warranty, express or implied; and accepts no responsibility or liability as to the accuracy or completeness or correctness of the information in this Report. SKP, its Directors, affiliates and employees do not accept any liability whatsoever, direct or indirect, that may arise from the use of the information or recommendations herein. Please note that past performance is not necessarily a guide to evaluate future performance. SKP or its affiliates, may, from time to time render advisory and other services to companies being referred to in this document and receive compensation for the same. SKP and/or its affiliates, directors and employees may trade for their own account or may also perform or seek to perform investment banking or underwriting services for or relating to those companies and may also be represented in the supervisory board or on any other committee of those companies or may sell or buy any securities or make any investment, which may be contrary to or inconsistent with this document. This document should be read and relied upon at the sole discretion and risk of the reader. The value of any investment made at your discretion based on this document or income there from may be affected by changes in economic, financial and/ or political factors and may go down as well as up and you may not get back the full or the expected amount invested. Some securities and/ or investments involve substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. Neither SKP nor its affiliates or their directors, employees, agents or representatives/associates, shall be responsible or liable in any manner, directly or indirectly, for information, views or opinions expressed in this document or the contents or any errors or discrepancies herein or for any decisions or actions taken in reliance on the document or inability to use or access our service or this document or for any loss or damages whether direct or indirect, incidental, special or consequential including without limitation loss of revenue or profits or any loss or damage that may arise from or in connection with the use of or reliance on this document or inability to use or access our service or this document. SKP Securities Ltd Contacts Research Sales Mumbai Kolkata Mumbai Kolkata Phone Fax Member: NSE BSE NSDL CDSL NCDEX* MCX* MCX-SX FPSB *Group Entities INB/INF: , BSE INB: , CDSL IN-DP-CDSL , DPID: , NSDL IN-DP-NSDL: , DP ID: IN302646, ARN: 0006, NCDEX: 00715, MCX: 31705, MCX-SX: INE SKP Securities Ltd Page 5 of 5

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