Firstsource Solutions (FIRSOU) 31

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1 Result Update Rating matrix Rating : Buy Target : 45 Target Period : 12 months Potential Upside : 45% What s changed? Target EPS FY16E EPS FY17E Rating Unchanged Unchanged Unchanged Unchanged Quarterly performance FY16 FY15 YoY (%) FY16 QoQ (%) Revenue EBITDA EBITDA (%) bps bps PAT Key financials Crore FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E Net Sales 3,106 3,035 3,237 3,501 EBITDA Net Profit EPS ( ) Valuation summary FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E P/E Target P/E EV / EBITDA P/BV RoNW (%) RoCE (%) Stock data Particular Amount Market Capitalization ( Crore) 2,084.1 Total Debt (Sept-15) ( Crore) Cash and Investments (Sept-15) ( Crore) EV ( Crore) 2, week H/L 42.8 / 24.2 Equity capital Face value 10.0 Price performance 1M 3M 6M 12M FSOL (10.2) HGS 0.6 (8.7) (20.4) (22.1) EXL Genpact Research Analyst Abhishek Shindadkar abhishek.shindadkar@icicisecurities.com Solid quarter October 30, 2015 Firstsource Solutions (FIRSOU) 31 Firstsource Solutions (FSL) reported strong FY16 earnings, which were in line with our raised estimates Revenues from operations grew 6.1% QoQ to crore in line with our 797 crore and 6.7% QoQ growth estimate. Constant currency revenues grew 3.2% QoQ At 12.4%, EBITDA margins improved 41 bps QoQ and were above our 20 bps improvement and 12.2% estimate. Reported PAT of 61.9 crore was also above our 61 crore estimate, led by margin improvement Solid quarter; guidance intact FSL s revenues during the quarter grew 6.1% QoQ (3.2% QoQ in constant currency) led by a recovery in top client (up 16.8% QoQ), absence of revenue leakages led by the US telecom client and domestic business, and growth in telecom & media and healthcare verticals. FSL s management highlighted that a majority of growth concerns are behind them and recent deal wins [closed large transformational deal with UK BFSI client with total contract value (TCV) of ~$170 million over 10 years period, which would contribute $7-8 million in H2FY16) and bookings won deals worth $37 million in annual contract value (ACV) in FY16 taking the total H1FY16 ACV to $61 million ($81 million in H1FY15] could help sustain growth momentum in H2FY16. Margin improvement trajectory may continue in H2FY16E FY16 margins improved 41 bps QoQ and 16 bps YoY to 12.4%, with minimal revenue leakages, operational efficiency and rationalisation of domestic accounts. The management narrowed its EBITDA margin guidance and now expects margin to expand bps (70-90 bps earlier) YoY in FY16E led by better margins in new deals, tailwinds from termination of loss-making accounts, acceleration in 1) collections business in Q4 led by seasonality and 2) healthcare and analytics business, partially offset by SG&A investments. Overall, FY15 margins improved 89 bps YoY to 12.5% led by rationalisation of loss making accounts. Top customer recovers sharply Top customer growth rebounded sharply grew 16.8% QoQ vs. 7.2% 7.1% and 6.8% QoQ decline in FY16 and Q4, Q3FY15, respectively. However, revenues are still down 6.2% on YoY basis and contrasts with 25% CAGR reported during FY10-15 and continues to drag company average. Top 2-5 customer revenues grew 3.9% YoY and 7.1% QoQ (vs %, 2.5% respectively in FY16) but is modest compared to 9.4% YoY CAGR achieved during FY Recovery in top and top 2-5 clients vs. uneven earlier (led by client specific ramp-downs and decision making delays) bodes well for company average growth. Maintaining estimates; target price We estimate FSL will report revenue, earnings CAGR of 4%, 22% over FY15-17E (average 13.7% EBITDA margins in FY16-17E), vs. 9%, 12% reported in FY10-15 (average 11.8%) as recovery in top customer, new deal wins could help growth while focus on margins could yield profitability. We continue to value the stock at 45, i.e. at 6x FY17E EV/EBITDA, modestly below its FY10-15 average of 6.7x, to account for moderating growth and maintain our BUY rating on reasonable valuations. ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research

2 Variance analysis FY16 FY16E FY15 YoY (%) FY16 QoQ (%) Comments Revenue Revenues grew 6.1% QoQ in line with our raised estimates. Constant currency revenues grew 3.2% QoQ Employee expenses Gross Margin Gross margin (%) bps bps SG&A expenses EBITDA EBITDA Margin (%) bps bps Depreciation & amortisation EBIT EBIT Margin (%) bps bps Other income (less interest) PBT Tax paid PAT EBITDA margins improved 41 bps QoQ above our 20 bps improvement estimate Change in estimates FY16E FY17E ( Crore) Old New % Change Old New % Change Comments Revenue 3,237 3, ,501 3, Management commentary indicates FY16E constant currency revenues could grow 7% EBITDA EBITDA Margin (%) bps bps FY16 EBITDA margin improvement guidance narrowed to bps vs. ~70-90 bps earlier PAT EPS ( ) ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research Page 2

3 Company Analysis Solid quarter; guidance intact FSL s revenues during the quarter grew 6.1% QoQ (3.2% QoQ in constant currency) led by a recovery in top client (up 16.8% QoQ), absence of revenue leakages led by the US telecom client and domestic business, and growth in telecom & media and healthcare verticals. The FSL management highlighted that a majority of growth concerns are behind them and that recent deals wins (closed large transformational deal with UK BFSI client with total contract value (TCV) of ~$170 million over 10 years period, which would contribute $7-8 million in H2FY16) and bookings won deals worth $ 37 million in annual contract value (ACV) in FY16 taking the total H1FY16 ACV to $61mn ($81 million in H1FY15) could help sustain growth momentum in H2FY16. Finally, the commentary suggests that deals already won provide 4-4.5% YoY growth visibility while the balance (7% YoY FY16E guidance) could be made from another lift-off deal which the company expects to close by December 2015/January Consequently, we maintain our revenue growth assumption. Recall, FY15 revenues had declined 2.3% YoY led by rationalisation of loss making accounts (including large Irish telecom client) and new deal ramp-ups delays. The management expects $12-15 million revenue headwind from this telco client in FY16E with additional ~$8 million impact from the domestic telco business. Exhibit 1: Rupee revenue may grow at 5% CAGR during FY15-17E crore FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 Q3 Q4 FY15 FY16E FY17E % -10 Rupee revenue Growth, YoY Margin improvement trajectory could continue in H2FY16E FY16 margins improved 41 bps QoQ and 16 bps YoY to 12.4%, with minimal revenue leakages, operational efficiency and rationalisation of domestic accounts. The management narrowed its EBITDA margin guidance and now expect margin to expand bps (70-90 bps earlier) YoY in FY16E led by better margins in new deals, tailwinds from termination of loss-making accounts, acceleration in 1) collections business in Q4 led by seasonality, and 2) healthcare and analytics business, partially offset by SG&A investments. Overall, FY15 margins improved 89 bps YoY to 12.5% led by rationalisation of loss making accounts. Recall, FSL s operating margins declined to 8.2% in FY12 vs. 14.2% in FY10 and were impacted by a variety of reasons including rise in delinquencies, investments in India operations, decentralising corporate functions and timing of big acquisitions. ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research Page 3

4 Exhibit 2: Modelling margin improvement of ~80 bps YoY in FY16E 20 % FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 Q3 Q4 FY15 FY16E FY17E EBITDA margin Exhibit 3: Growth, headcount rationalisation could drive seat fill factor higher % FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 Q3 Q4 FY15 Seat fill factor Top customer recovers sharply Top customer growth rebounded sharply grew 16.8% QoQ vs. 7.2% 7.1% and 6.8% QoQ decline in FY16 and Q4, Q3FY15, respectively. However, revenues are still down 6.2% on YoY basis and contrasts with 25% CAGR reported during FY10-15 and continues to drag company average. Top 2-5 customer revenues grew 3.9% YoY and 7.1% QoQ (vs %, 2.5% respectively in FY16) but is modest compared to 9.4% YoY CAGR achieved during FY Recovery in top and top 2-5 clients vs. uneven earlier (led by client specific ramp-downs and decision making delays) bodes well for company average growth. Debt repayment on track As on end, FSL had net long term debt of ~$105 million and cash of ~$26.3 million assuming period ending rates. At the current repayment rate, FSL would repay ~$22.5 million of its debt in the remainder of FY16E and could result in a net debt of ~$82 million assuming current cash levels and no accelerated payments. We estimate the net debt neutral status achievement could likely be achieved in FY17E. ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research Page 4

5 Outlook and valuation Firstsource reported strong FY16 earnings, which were in line with our raised estimates. Revenues from operations grew 6.1% QoQ in line with our raised 6.7% QoQ growth estimate. Constant currency revenues grew 3.2% QoQ. Recovery in top, top 2-5 customers and deal momentum bodes well and could help FSL in achieving its 7% constant currency revenue growth and bps operating margin improvement guidance in FY16E. We estimate FSL will report revenue, earnings CAGR of 4%, 22% over FY15-17E (average 13.7% EBITDA margins in FY16-17E) vs. 9%, 12% reported during FY10-15 (average 11.8%) as recovery in top customer, new deal wins could help growth while focus on margins could yield profitability. We continue to value the stock at 45, i.e. at 6x FY17E EV/EBITDA, modestly below its FY10-15 average of 6.7x, to account for moderating growth and maintain our BUY rating on reasonable valuations. Exhibit 4: One year forward rolling EV/EBITDA Sep-08 Feb-09 Jul-09 Dec-09 May-10 Oct-10 Mar-11 Aug-11 Jan-12 Jun-12 Nov-12 Apr-13 Sep-13 Feb-14 Jul-14 Dec-14 May-15 Oct-15 EV Exhibit 5: Valuations Sales Gr owth EPS Growth PE EV /EBITDA RoNW RoCE ( cr) (%) ( ) (%) (x) (x) ( %) (%) FY14 3, (0.4) FY15 3,035 (2.3) FY16E 3, FY17E 3, ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research Page 5

6 Company snapshot Target price : Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Source: Bloomberg, Company, ICICIdirect.com Research Key events Date Event Feb-11 FSOL approves merger of unit Revit Systems with itself Dec-11 The stock hits all-time low as it reports lowest net profit since FY09 and lowest ever net profit on annualised basis since FY08 Dec-12 RPG led CESC acquires 56% stake in the company. Repays FCCB obligation worth $ 237 million in December Jan-13 CESC-controlled Spen Liq Ltd tenders an open offer to acquire additional stake in the company at 12.2 per share Jul-13 Rakesh Jhunjhunwala buys 5.14% stake in the company at an average 10 per share Dec-13 The company successfully makes its third quarterly principal repayment of $11.25 million on its outstanding debt on December 31, 2013 Mar-14 The company successfully makes its fourth quarterly principal repayment of $11.25 million on its outstanding debt on March 31, 2014 The company reports in line quarter with 174 bps margin expansion for FY14 led by exiting lower margin domestic business. It reduces FY15E growth outlook to 6% Apr-14 from 8% earlier. Nov-14 FSL reports moderate growth during FY15 with 94 bps YoY margin expansion. However, it lowers its FY15E guidance to 2-2.5% vs. 6% earlier May-15 Reports weak Q4FY15 earnings as revenues, absolute EBITDA and PAT were below our estimates Jun-15 Firstsource reports soft FY16 earnings. Though revenues were above our estimates, absolute EBITDA and PAT were below Reports strong FY16 earnings, which were in line with our raised estimates.revenues from operations grew 6.1% QoQ while constant currency revenues grew Oct % QoQ Top 10 Shareholders Rank Name Latest Filing Date % O/S Position (m) Change (m) 1 RPG Enterprises 30-Sep ICICI Group 30-Sep Jhunjhunwala (Rakesh) 30-Sep Goldman Sachs Asset Management International 30-Sep Deutsche Asset Management (India) Private Ltd. 30-Jun Birla Sun Life Asset Management Company Ltd. 30-Sep Steinberg Asset Management, LLC 30-Sep Dimensional Fund Advisors, L.P. 31-Aug Principal PNB Asset Management Company Ltd. 30-Sep Subramaniam (Rajesh) 2-Sep Source: Reuters, ICICIdirect.com Research Shareholding Pattern (in %) Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Promoter FII DII Others Recent Activity Buys Sells Investor name Value Shares Investor name Value Shares Steinberg Asset Management, LLC 3.94m 9.78m DSP BlackRock Investment Managers Pvt. Ltd m -3.89m Birla Sun Life Asset Management Company Ltd. 1.30m 3.23m Mellon Capital Management Corporation -0.67m -1.66m Subramaniam (Rajesh) 0.50m 1.25m Pramerica Asset Managers Pvt. Ltd m -0.55m Principal PNB Asset Management Company Ltd. 0.10m 0.25m Harding Loevner LP -0.27m -0.52m Ponnappa (K M) 0.10m 0.24m ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research Page 6

7 Financial summary Profit and loss statement Crore FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E Total Revenues 3,106 3,035 3,237 3,501 Growth (%) 10.2 (2.3) Employee expenses 2,129 2,018 2,143 2,310 Other Expenses EBITDA Growth (%) Depreciation & Amortization Other Income Interest PBT before Exceptional Items Growth (%) Tax PAT before Exceptional Items Exeptional items PAT before MI Minority Int & Pft. from associates PAT Growth (%) EPS EPS (Growth %) (0.4) Cash flow statement Crore FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E Profit before Tax Depreciation & Amortization WC changes 125 (105) 26 (5) Other non cash adju CF from operations Capital expenditure (36) (46) (115) (75) Δ in investments (2) (62) - - Other investing cash flow CF from investing Activities (13) (104) (111) (66) Issue of equity Δ in debt funds (209) (213) (270) (270) Dividends paid Other financing cash flow (80) (44) (41) (25) CF from Financial Activities (286) (246) (311) (295) Δ in cash and cash bank balance 96 (105) 5 80 Effect of exchange rate changes Opening cash Closing cash Balance sheet Crore FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E Equity Reserves & Surplus 1,432 1,422 1,712 2,064 Networth 2,091 2,089 2,379 2,731 Minority Interest LT liabilties & provisions Source of funds 2,829 2,557 2,647 2,799 Net fixed assets Goodwill 2,594 2,334 2,334 2,334 Other non current assets Loans and advances Current Investments Debtors Cash & Cash equivalents Other current assets Short term borrowings Trade payables Current liabilities Provisions Application of funds 2,829 2,557 2,647 2,799 Key ratios (Year-end March) FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E Per share data ( ) EPS-diluted Cash per share BV Operating profit per share Operating Ratios (%) EBITDA Margin PBT Margin PAT Margin Return Ratios (%) RoNW RoCE Valuation Ratios (x) P/E EV / EBITDA Price to Book Value EV / Net Sales Mcap / Net Sales Turnover Ratios Debtor days Creditors days Solvency Ratios Total Debt / Equity Current Ratio Quick Ratio Debt / EBITDA ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research Page 7

8 ICICIdirect.com coverage universe (IT) CMP M Cap EPS ( ) P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) RoCE (%) RoE (%) Sector / Company ( ) TP( ) Rating ( Cr) FY15 FY16E FY17E FY15 FY16E FY17E FY15 FY16E FY17E FY15 FY16E FY17E FY15 FY16E FY17E Cyient (INFENT) Hold 6, Eclerx (ECLSER) 1,865 1,500 Sell 5, Firstsource (FIRSOU) Buy 2, HCL Tech* (HCLTEC) 873 1,050 Buy 122, Infosys (INFTEC) 1,136 1,300 Buy 260, KPIT Tech (KPISYS) Hold 2, Mindtree (MINCON) 1,568 1,600 Hold 13, NIIT Technologies (NIITEC) Hold 3, o Persistent (PSYS) Hold 5, TCS (TCS) 2,499 2,800 Buy 492, Tech Mahindra (TECMAH) Buy 52, Wipro (WIPRO) Buy 141, * June year end, ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research Page 8

9 RATING RATIONALE ICICIdirect.com endeavours to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICIdirect.com assigns ratings to its stocks according to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorises them as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional target price is defined as the analysts' valuation for a stock. Strong Buy: >15%/20% for large caps/midcaps, respectively, with high conviction; Buy: >10%/15% for large caps/midcaps, respectively; Hold: Up to +/-10%; Sell: -10% or more; Pankaj Pandey Head Research pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com ICICIdirect.com Research Desk, ICICI Securities Limited, 1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre, Road No 7, MIDC, Andheri (East) Mumbai research@icicidirect.com ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research Page 9

10 ANALYST CERTIFICATION We /I, Abhishek Shindadkar, MBA, Research Analyst, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. Terms & conditions and other disclosures: ICICI Securities Limited (ICICI Securities) is a Sebi registered Research Analyst having registration no. INH ICICI Securities Limited (ICICI Securities) is a full-service, integrated investment banking and is, inter alia, engaged in the business of stock brokering and distribution of financial products. 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