May th CASEE Conference, Temisoara (Romenia)

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1 Facing with CC challenges by using seasonal weather forecast in agricultural production Branislava Lalić

2 Facing with CC challenges by using long range weather forecast in agricultural production Branislava Lalić

3 CC - chalange of our generation

4

5 MORE ABOUT... LONG RANGE WEATHER FORECAST

6 CC time to change paradigm What happends on smaller time and spatial scale?

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8

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10 The AWS Network

11 OBSERVED CHANGES IN PHENOLOGY DYNAMICS Region Dates Change (days) Novi Sad Bačka Topola Pančevo Ruma * Sombor * GROWING PROBLEM Shift in appearance of "four tillers detectable" - growing stage of winter wheat in Serbia (Source: PIS Serbia).

12 CC time to change paradigm Adapt to climate change = Face with weather Meet it... Do not wait for it!

13 BEST STRATEGY - TO BE A PART OF SOLUTION Application of advanced meteorological products Numerical weather prediction of different scales: short range, monthly and seasonal forecast Application through Plant & harmful organism phenology models Crop models

14 Source: Republic Hydrometeorological Servic ce of Serbia Forecasting weather NWP products of interest in agrometeorology (AgM), crop modelling (CM) & plant protection (PP) Short-range range weather forecast (out to 5 days) Monthly forecast (out to 30 days) Seasonal forecast (out to 7 months) Climate model simulations (30 years or more)

15 OBJECTIVE Provide backgroung for more efficient use of different NWP products for tactical and/or strategical decision making in agriculture /crop production and plant protection/

16 EXAMPLE OF SOLUTIONS - LOCATIONS

17 ACTIVITY 1 Application of short range weather forecast in agrometeorology and plant protection AgM - forecasting : leaf weatness and temperature canopy air temperature and humidity soil temperature and moisture precipitation... AgM - forecasting application : fruit vegetation dynamic (in progress) meteorological conditions for plant dissease appereance (done)

18 Forecasting apple scab infection intensity: RESULT 1.1 infection intensity: TEMPERATURE & LEAF WETNESS DURATION Observations: BOKU-MET (Austria) and Pest Management Service of Vojvodina (Serbia) Simulations: Work Eta NWP model, Faculty of Agriculture, Novi Sad 3 Infection inte ensity Rimski Sancevi O D1 D2 D3 D DOY Lalic, B. Francia, M., Eitzinger, J., Podrascanin, Z., Arsenic, I., 2015: Effectiveness of Short-term Numerical Weather Prediction in Predicting Growing Degree Days and Meteorological Conditions for Apple Scab Appearance, Meteorological Applications, DOI: /met.1521.

19 ACTIVITY 2 Application of Monthly&Seasonal weather forecast in agrometeorology and crop modeliing AgM - ensembl forecasting : air temperature and humidity precipitation... AgM ensembl forecasting application : fruit vegetation dynamic (in progress) AgM conditions meteorological conditions for plant dissease appereance (done)

20 RESULT 2.1 Forecasting AgM conditions: EXTREME TEMPERATURES Observations: BOKU-MET (Austria) and Pest Management Service of Vojvodina (Serbia) Simulations: Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia from ECMWF MARS Archive and Faculty of Agriculture, Novi Sad (Serbia) March April May Jun FrostD FreezD FrostD FreezD TropicalD SummerD Tropica N TropicalD SummerD TropicalN GS NS Obs Mon Ses Obs Mon Ses

21 RESULT 2.1 Forecasting AgM conditions: EXTREME DRY DAYS Observations: BOKU-MET (Austria) and Pest Management Service of Vojvodina (Serbia) Simulations: Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia from ECMWF MARS Archive and Faculty of Agriculture, Novi Sad (Serbia) GS NS Dry Intensive Dry extreme Dry very extreme Dry rate Harvest AMJ MAM AMJ MAM AMJ MAM AMJ Jun Obs Mon Ses Obs Mon Ses

22 ACTIVITY 2 Application of Monthly&Seasonal weather forecast in agrometeorology and crop modeliing CM - ensembl forecasting : crop dynamic soil moisture deficit evapotranspiration LAI development CM ensembl forecasting application : yield and biomass formation N uptake scheduling of farm operations according to weather and crop conditions on monthly scale optimization of irrigation, fertilization and plant protection application-spraying

23 RESULT 2.3 CM - ensembl forecasting : LAI DEVELOPMENT SIRIUS: WINTER WHEAT Observations: BOKU-MET (Austria) and Pest Management Service of Vojvodina (Serbia) Simulations: Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia from ECMWF MARS Archive and Faculty of Agriculture, Novi Sad (Serbia) March April May June Observed MONTHLY FORECAST 6 March April May June Observed MONTHLY FORECAST Grossensdorf LAI (m 2 m -2 ) 4 Novi Sad LAI (m 2 m -2 ) JDAY JDAY

24 RESULT 2.4 CM - ensembl forecasting : ACCUMULATED ET SIRIUS: WINTER WHEAT Observations: BOKU-MET (Austria) and Pest Management Service of Vojvodina (Serbia) Simulations: Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia from ECMWF MARS Archive and Faculty of Agriculture, Novi Sad (Serbia) March April May June MONTHLY FORECAST 400 March April May June MONTHLY FORECAST Grossensdorf Accumulated ET (mm) Observed Novi Sad Accumulated ET (mm) Observed JDAY JDAY

25 RESULT 2.5 CM - ensembl forecasting : AVAILABLE WATER SIRIUS: WINTER WHEAT Observations: BOKU-MET (Austria) and Pest Management Service of Vojvodina (Serbia) Simulations: Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia from ECMWF MARS Archive and Faculty of Agriculture, Novi Sad (Serbia) March April May June Observed MONTHLY FORECAST March April May June Observed MONTHLY FORECAST Grossensdorf Available water (mm) Novi Sad Available water (mm) JDAY JDAY

26 RESULT 2.6 CM - ensembl forecasting: MARCH MARCH-JUNE observed vs. Monthly&Seasonal SIRIUS: WINTER WHEAT Observations: BOKU-MET (Austria) and Pest Management Service of Vojvodina (Serbia) Simulations: Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia from ECMWF MARS Archive and Faculty of Agriculture, Novi Sad (Serbia) ET (mm) Max. def. (mm) AnthesisD MaturityD Biomass (kg/ha) Yield (kg) Obs GS Mon Ses Obs NS Mon Ses Lalic, Dekic, Eitzinger, Firanj Sremac (Manuscipt in preparation)

27 OVERVIEW Short term weather forecast AgM Pest and dissease appereance Crop yield to be done... Monthly forecast Seasonal forecast case studies made, further work in progress...

28 MONTHLY WEATHER FORECAST RESULTS Source: Monthly EPS products of ECMWF (European Centre for Medium range Weather Forecast) Forecast: March 1, June 30, 2005; 51-member ensemble (boundary conditions for WRF NMM model)

29 PHENOLOGY MODEL RESULTS Model: PIS_PHEN Source: Forecasting and Warning Service of Serbia in plant protection Methodology: Continuous observation of plant growing stages according to BBCH scale Cultivar: Winter wheat EOBAR Conf ference, Bejing, China, May 2016

30 RESULTS - CALCULATED PHENOLOGY DYNAMIC 0 o C lower threshold OBSERVED WEATHER VS. MONTHLY WEATHER FORECAST

31 Forecasting RESULT 2.2 Forecasting met. conditions for plant dissease appereance: BLIGHT OF GRAPEVINE Observations: BOKU-MET (Austria) and Pest Management Service of Vojvodina (Serbia) Simulations: Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia from ECMWF MARS Archive and Faculty of Agriculture, Novi Sad (Serbia) Grossensdorf (Austria) - no conditions for accurence of infection Novi Sad (Serbia) Observed Control run Start of IP End of IP Duration No. IP 1 4

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