Introduction of Agro-meteorological Information Services In China. Prof. Wang Jianlin Dr. He Yanbo

Transcription

1 Introduction of Agro-meteorological Information Services In China Prof. Wang Jianlin Dr. He Yanbo National Meteorological center, China Meteorological Administration

2 Contents Organization & Staff Members Missions Agro-meteorology Monitoring and Assessment Agro-meteorology Forecasting Agro-meteorological information Services Production & Users

3 Institutes under CMA China Meteorological Administration National Climate Center, NCC National Satellite Meteorological Center, NSMC National Meteorological Information Center, NMIC Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, CAMS Meteorological Observation Center of CMA, MOC National Meteorological Center, NMC Agro-meteorology Center, AMC

4 Agro-meteorology Center crops yield meteorological forecast branch Agro-meteorological information service branch ecology meteorological Service branch Supporting & Developing branch

5 Staff Members 27% 12% 61% Professor Associate Prof. Assistant prof. Total:26 people Among them: 15 people with Doctor's Degree 4 people with Master's Degree 7 people with Bachelor's Degree

6 Contents Organization & Staff Members Missions Agro-meteorology Monitoring and Assessment Agro-meteorology Forecasting Agro-meteorological information Services Production & Users

7 Operational Missions To provide the agro-meteorological information service for the government decision-makers and public To provide the national crops yield meteorological forecast for the government decision-makers To provide the agricultural meteorology disaster assessment for the government decision-makers and public To provide the national Vegetation monitoring and assessment for the government decision-makers and public

8 Research Focus To study the relationship between weather, climate and Crops, Vegetation Dynamics To study and develop the operational technology and software systems for Agrometeorological Information Services

9 Agro-Meteorology center is A unified body combined the scientific research and information service in Agrometeorology field.

10 Contents Organization & Staff Members Missions Agro-meteorology Monitoring and Assessment Agro-meteorology Forecasting Agro-meteorological information Services Production & Users

11 Agro-meteorological Observation Data Meteorological elements Crop growth and development status Soil water content (Soil Moisture) Agrometeorological disaster

12 Agro-meteorological Observation Stations Network in China (756)

13 The Framework of Data Transmission S1 S1 S2 S2 S3 S3 S585 S753 S586 S754 S587 S756 PMC1 PMC2 PMC29 PMC30 RMC1 RMC1 RMC6 RMC6 NMIC NMC--AEMS NMC--AMC

14 Distribution of Main Crops Planted Area and Observational Stations

15 Distribution of Winter Wheat Planted Area and Observational Stations

16 Distribution of Maize Planted Area and Observational Stations

17 Distribution of Double-Cropping Rice Planted Area and Observational Stations

18 Distribution of Single-Cropping Rice Planted Area and Observational Stations

19 Crop Growth Condition Monitoring

20 growing period Tillering Recovering Jointing Heading filling maturity Distribution of Winter-Wheat growing period

21 growing period Sowing Seedling Transplant Recovering Distribution of Double-cropping rice growing period

22 growing period Transplant Recovering Tillering Booting Heading Distribution of Single-cropping Rice growing period

23 growing period Sowing Seedling Three-leaves Seven-leaves Jointing Silking maturity Distribution of Summer-maize growing period

24 Winter Wheat growth condition monitoring by using remote sensing in North China on November 30, 2008

25 Soil Moisture & Drought Monitoring

26 Soil Moisture Monitoring Distribution of Soil Relative Moisture is based on the Data Observed on ground every five days

27 Agricultural drought monitoring & Forecasting Agricultural Drought Monitoring is integrated from Soil Moisture Crop Water Deficit Model Remote Sensing Model. Agricultural drought forecasting is based on the Numerical Weather Prediction and Crop Water Deficit Model

28 Integrated Model Soil Moisture Remote Sensing Model Crop Water Deficit Model

29 Agro-meteorological disaster monitoring and warning Based on the disaster meteorological indicators, according to the crop growth stage and the weather forecasting to provide the Agrometeorological disaster monitoring and warning information on heat wave, chilling/frozen injury, snow disaster.

30 Contents Organization & Staff Members Missions Agro-meteorology Monitoring and Assessment Agro-meteorology Forecasting Agro-meteorological information Services Production & Users

31 Agro-meteorology Forecasting Crop Yield Forecasting Weather condition forecasting for Pests and diseases

32 The weather-yield simulation forecasting and models are developed and used in our country in resent years. Main methods: Statistical Crop Yield Forecasting Techniques Decomposing-synthesizing, Structure-factorial, Regression Remote sensing yield estimating Area estimating, greenness Index-yield, Remote sensing integration Dynamic Crop Growth Model Basic process, Assimilate distributing and accumulating, yield formation

33 The Decomposing-synthesizing Statistical Model The general form of the model is given as Y = Yw + Yt + Y Where Y is the yield, Yw the component of meteorological effects on the yield, or meteorological yield, Yt as a component denoting the temporal technique tendency yield, and ΔY the stochastic error, often negligible in prediction.

34 Tendency Yield simulation predicting Methods The usual techniques of tendency yield simulation include linear, quasi-linear, nonlinear, piecewise, linear running averaging, harmonic weighing and exponential smoothing methods. the quasi-linear model include the function as Conic, Power, Index, Logarithm, Hyperbola and Growth.

35 Meteorological Yield simulation predicting Methods The meteorological yield simulation in common use statistical regression model, as Multivariate Regression Stepwise Regression Gradual Regression Integral Regression Multiple Discriminant Analysis

36 Procedures for Crop Dynamic yield forecasting Yield statistics, crop calendar, agro-meteorological indicators and daily weather information Comprehensive diagnostic indicators historical weather impact index on crop yield Main crop s dynamic yields forecasting model

37 weather condition forecasting for Pests and diseases developing

38 According to the environment weather conditions to make the risk forecasting for the wheat scab, rice blast, rice plant-hopper, grassland locusts and other pests and diseases occurring and evolvement

39 Procedures for making products of meteorological risk forecasting for Pests and diseases developing Ground obs. Weather forecasting Meteo-Physiological indicators for Pests and diseases development meteorological risk classification standards for Pests and diseases developing Pest suitability composite index / promoting disease model meteorological risk classification for Pests and diseases developing Field investigation /analysis meteorological risk map

40 weather condition forecasting for Pests and diseases developing (Products in 2007) 2007 年 内 蒙 古 草 原 蝗 虫 发 生 发 展 气 象 等 级 分 布 /Grassland locusts 2007 年 江 南 地 区 稻 飞 虱 发 生 发 展 和 迁 入 气 象 等 级 分 布 图 /Plant-hoppers 2007 年 江 淮 江 汉 地 区 小 麦 赤 霉 病 发 生 发 展 气 象 等 级 分 布 图 /Wheat scab 2007 年 川 渝 地 区 稻 瘟 病 发 生 发 展 气 象 等 级 分 布 图 /Blast

41 Contents Organization & Staff Members Missions Agro-meteorology Monitoring and Assessment Agro-meteorology Forecasting Agro-meteorological information Services Production & Users

42 Services Products List China Agro-Meteorological Information Crop Soil Moisture Monitoring Agricultural Drought Monitoring Agro-Meteorological Disaster Monitoring and Warning Domestic main Crop s Yield Forecasting Yield Forecasting for main crop production regions in foreign countries Weather condition forecasting for pests and diseases developing

43 Date or Cycle Of Products Publishing Agro-Meteorological Information periodical Bulletins (ten-day, monthly, seasonally, annually) Special Topic Reports (at crops important growing period) Agro-Meteorological Disasters Report ( if disasters occur)

44 Crop Yield Forecasting Bulletins (1)In April/May: provide the trends and quantitative yield forecast on winter wheat, Rapeseed (2)In June/July: provide the trends and quantitative yield forecast on earlier rice. (3) In July/August: provide the trends and quantitative yield forecast on rice, corn, cotton, Soybean (4)In October: provide the trends and quantitative yield forecast on later rice in double cropping (5) Provide the abroad food crop Yield forecasting in One month before harvest

45 Users Government Departments for Decision-making Public through Media (Newspaper, Radio, TV Special Program) Provincial Agro-meteorological Units

46 Thanks!