How can I forecast tomorrow s weather?
|
|
- Miles Jennings
- 7 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 How can I forecast tomorrow s weather? A laboratory experiment from the Little Shop of Physics at Colorado State University CMMAP Reach for the sky. Overview While there are considerable difficulties in forecasting the day-to-day weather accurately in a quantitative sense, it is relatively easy to make your own qualitative forecast. A relatively good forecast can be made one day in advance based on knowledge of the weather conditions the day before. By completing the basics of this exercise, you should be able to make an informed decision as to whether it will rain, the relative intensity of the rain, and whether it will be hot or cold. The more advanced areas of the following activities will help you to develop a more quantitative forecast. Theory Most information for a qualitative forecast can be seen on a simple weather map created by taking observations at many different places at the same time. If you see a low pressure area that has been moving eastward toward your current location, what type of weather might you expect? If a cold front is moving southward out of Canada, what would you soon expect the temperature to do? If it is going to be cloudy tomorrow, will it be warmer or colder than it was today? Often the best qualitative forecast follows from persistence. If it is warm and sunny today, and it was warm and sunny yesterday, the odds are pretty good that it will be warm and sunny tomorrow, that is, unless you see something else heading in on your weather map. You can do a lot to forecast tomorrow s weather just by looking at a weather map. Necessary materials: NASA Hurricane tracking activity packet An example station plot map with sea level pressure contours Access to the past few days of weather analyses, including surface data with station plots as well as upper-level data Access to current local model output statistics (MOS) The example station plot map can cover various US locations and can be created at Recent weather analyses can be found at the above address or at Local MOS can be obtained from 1 In order to predict specific quantities in a forecast, such as temperature, humidity, and rainfall, we rely on computer models. Numerical weather prediction (NWP) uses a system of equations that describe the be-
2 havior of the atmosphere. NWP models read in the current state of the weather from observations as an initial condition and then calculates the solutions to the equations that will tell us what the weather will be a few seconds into the future. Then it uses that information and repeats the calculations many times until it gives a quantitative forecast for a few days into the future. Meteorologists like to run many versions of the same forecast with slight differences in the initial conditions to account for a lack of perfect observations. The multiple forecast runs are then averaged together as a summary of the predicted state of the atmosphere. Added to this information is information about how the weather acted the last time that similar weather conditions existed. So if the weather five years ago was very close to what it is like today, it is likely that tomorrow s weather will be very much like what happened five years ago, too. This summary is known as Model Output Statistics (MOS). MOS is often called model guidance because forecasters will use the generated numbers as a guide to make their forecast. The results are never perfect, and different models give different forecasts, too. Therefore, forecasting usually takes some intuition, which is why most people can read the different MOS data sets and come up with reasonable forecasts. Doing the Experiment This experiment includes a number of activities that progressively lead from qualitative to quantitative forecasting. Part I: Hurricane Tracking In this section, students will use satellite images to predict when and where a hurricane will hit. Big idea: Observations can lead too future predictions. The hurricane tracking packet includes a hurricane tracking chart and satellite images of Hurricane Georges moving through the Caribbean Sea at 8 different points in time. Begin by placing an X on the hurricane tracking chart for the first 4 positions of the hurricane. Connect the Xs with a dark or colored line. Based on what you have just drawn, see if you can predict where and when the hurricane will hit the United States. Add the next day s position to your chart and reevaluate your prediction. Has your predicted time and location of landfall changed? Keep adding positions, and see where and when the hurricane made landfall. For further inquiry: Ask the students how this image was made. Is it radar, visible, infrared? Discuss the structure of the hurricane. Are the eye, eye-wall, or spiral rain bands visible? Where would you expect the most damage from this storm? i.e., where is the storm surge strongest? If hurricanes are a particular threat in your area, a discussion of the differences between a hurricane watch and warning may be warranted. A few examples are listed on the hurricane tracking chart. If societal impacts are a focus of the course, research the history of this storm and its aftermath and others for comparison. Part II: Analyze Your Own Weather Map From Station Plots Obtain a map of station plots as directed under Necessary Materials. Explain the coding of the station plots to your students. Details can be found at Read the data off of the station plot map and determine the location of cold and warm fronts based on noted precipitation, wind shifts, pressure troughs, and rapid spatial temperature changes. 2
3 For further inquiry: Have students contour the sea level pressure or temperature surfaces before analyzing the map for fronts. Part III: Tracking Day-to-Day Weather In this section, you will compile a few days of national weather maps and satellite images (optional) in order to make a qualitative forecast for a location of your choosing. Collection of the maps can be done on a daily basis, making predictions for the next day based on new observations or you can collect archived maps. Show the students each weather map in order to get a feel for how weather systems move across the United States. Pay particular attention to cold and warm fronts, wind pattern, pressure patterns, and any precipitation. Make a prediction based on the movement of the weather like you did in Part I for the hurricane. Make sure to verify your prediction the following day. For further inquiry: Look at upper-level wind and height charts and determine wether surface cyclones will intensify based on upper-level convergence and divergence. Part IV: Decoding Model Output Statistics Obtain MOS from at least two different models from the website listed under Necessary Materials. Explain the MOS coding system to the students. For details on this visit: Compare the statistics given by each the models. How are they similar? How do they differ? Based on the information obtained in Part III and from the MOS data, make a quantitative forecast for tomorrow s high and low temperatures, averaged sustained and gusting wind speeds, wind direction, sky conditions, and chance of precipitation. What are the chances of a thunderstorm tomorrow? Summing Up After completing this set of exercises, you should have a feel for how meteorologists and you can forecast tomorrow s weather. It turns out that all you really have to do is read a map or some model data. For More Information CMMAP, the Center for Multi-Scale Modeling of Atmospheric Processes: Little Shop of Physics: 3
4 Weather Forecasting - Qualitative Most information for a qualitative forecast can be seen on a simple weather map If you see a low pressure area that has been moving eastward towards Colorado, what type of weather might you expect? If a cold front is moving southward through Wyoming, what would you expect the temperature to do? If it s s going to be cloudy tomorrow, will it be warmer or colder than it was today? Often the best forecast is persistence: if it s s warm and sunny today, and it was warm and sunny yesterday, the odds are pretty good that it will be warm and sunny tomorrow (unless you know something else)
5 How can I forecast tomorrow s weather? Related Questions Part I: Hurricane Tracking In this section, students will use satellite images to predict when and where a hurricane will hit the coast. BIG IDEA: Observations can lead too future predictions. The hurricane tracking packet includes a hurricane tracking chart and satellite images of Hurricane Georges moving through the Caribbean Sea at 8 different points in time. 1. Begin by placing an X on the hurricane tracking chart for the first four positions of the hurricane. 2. Connect the Xs with a dark or colored line. 3. Based on what you have just drawn, see if you can predict where and when the hurricane will hit the United States. Prediction #1: 4. Keep adding positions from positions 5-8 one at a time, and see where and when the hurricane made landfall each time you update your tracking chart. Prediction #2: Prediction #3: Prediction #4: Prediction #5: 5. Has your predicted time and location of landfall changed? 6. How this image was made. Is it radar, visible, infrared? 7. What do the colored parts of the hurricane indicate?
6
7
8
9 Temperature ( o F) Station Plots G23 Wind speed, direction, and peak gust Station Pressure Visibility (miles) Current Weather 9 45 FNL hour pressure change Dewpoint ( o F) Sky Cover Station ID 3 hour precipitation Reading Station Plots Pressure 000 to 499: mb to mb 500 to 999: mb to mb Pressure Tendency In tenths of a mb change in 3 hours E.g., -32 is a drop of 3.2 mb in 3 hrs Temperature in o F Reading Station Plots
10 Reading Station Plots
11 Station Plot
12
13
14 Weather Forecasting - Quantitative In order to predict specific quantities in a forecast (temperature, humidity, rainfall) we rely on computer models Numerical weather prediction (NWP) uses a system of equations that describes the behavior of the atmosphere NWP model uses the current state of the atmosphere as its initial condition and steps through a small time step, recalculating every number for each step until the forecast time is reached So why aren t t forecasts always right? Observations aren t t good enough! A model is only as good as its initial conditions Even having an observation for every square meter of the planet would leave out smaller details and and we don t t have even close to that many observations Computers aren t t fast enough! In order to truly create a perfect forecast, one would have to use the exact equations on a really, really small spatial scale In order to create a model that will create a 12 hour forecast in less than 12 hours, we must approximate certain parts of equations and run the model on a grid with spacing of multiple kilometers ~1.2 million grid points x thousands of calculations > 1 Billion calculations per time step More than 1 Quadrillion calculations per time step at 1 meter resolution (10 12 ) More than 4 Quadrillion calculations to simulate 12 hours Forces us to make approximations to the equations that govern the atmosphere Little bit of error added at each time step Chaos reigns supreme! Ever heard of the butterfly effect? It s s more than just a movie
15 Chaos Theory Also known as the Butterfly Effect,, coined by Dr. Edward Lorenz in the 60 s s (he s s still teaching at MIT) Basically says that even the most insignificant change to initial conditions will magnify into drastic changes The smallest disturbance will eventually grow into a large difference this limits the range of forecasts to just a few days Even if the initial conditions and computing power were perfect,, chaos theory would limit us to a reasonable range of about 2 weeks Computers cannot possibly predict the movement of a butterfly, or how hard you step on the gas pedal So How far have we come? 100 years ago we just looked to the west. The first attempt at numerical weather prediction by Lewis Fry Richardson was done by hand. On a WWI battlefield as part of an ambulance unit in Northern France Just wanted to predict the pressure change over the next six hours Calculation took him six weeks! And he was off by over 140 mb Richardson s s Forecast Factory
16 How far have we come? In 1937, the US started using weather balloons. It wasn t t until WWII that the existence of a jet stream was confirmed. In 1948, ENIAC was put together by John von Neumann in a 30 by 50 room. In April 1950, the first 24-hr forecast was attempted. Took more than 24 hours due to breakdowns 8 years later, forecasts began to show signs of skill. As it stands today, we can have a great deal of faith in a weather forecast out to about 3 days. Just 30 years ago, we could only do 2 days Beyond that, the accuracy drops dramatically If you see a 15 day forecast don don t t believe it MOS The output from a model can be shown in the form of Model Output Statistics (MOS) MOS is a summary of the predicted condition of the atmosphere at each forecast time MOS is often called model guidance,, because forecasters will use the generated numbers as a guide to make their forecast MOS isn t t perfect though, and forecasting takes some intuition
17 The premise behind MOS The (preceding) models produce output describing the weather over No. America and vicinity at grid points or in wave space. Conditions for this time of year at a specific city may have occurred similarly in the historic past (i.e., old climate data are used). Forecasts of current conditions can be made for a city using the current model output and based on the historic weather outcomes. Downfalls of MOS There isn t t just one model that is used for NWP Multiple models are used that have differences in resolution and in the equations used and assumptions made The models never agree on everything A good forecaster will look at multiple model predictions and have a feel for which model performs the best under certain circumstances Station Name Artesia, NM Date and Time the Model was run
18 Decoding MOS Max and Min Temperature KMIA AVN MOS GUIDANCE 9/04/ UTC DT /SEPT 4 /SEPT 5 /SEPT 6 / HR X/N TMP DPT CLD BK BK BK OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV BK WDR WSP P P Q Q T06 33/ 0 64/ 0 21/ 0 19/ 0 42/ 0 80/ 0 37/ 0 37/ 0 39/ 0 22/ 0 T12 66/ 0 42/ 0 93/ 0 58/ 0 66/ 0 CIG VIS OBV N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N Decoding MOS 3 hourly temperature forecasts KMIA AVN MOS GUIDANCE 9/04/ UTC DT /SEPT 4 /SEPT 5 /SEPT 6 / HR X/N TMP DPT CLD BK BK BK OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV BK WDR WSP P P Q Q T06 33/ 0 64/ 0 21/ 0 19/ 0 42/ 0 80/ 0 37/ 0 37/ 0 39/ 0 22/ 0 T12 66/ 0 42/ 0 93/ 0 58/ 0 66/ 0 CIG VIS OBV N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N Decoding MOS Cloud Cover KMIA AVN MOS GUIDANCE 9/04/ UTC DT /SEPT 4 /SEPT 5 /SEPT 6 / HR X/N TMP DPT CLD BK BK BK OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV BK WDR WSP P P Q Q T06 33/ 0 64/ 0 21/ 0 19/ 0 42/ 0 80/ 0 37/ 0 37/ 0 39/ 0 22/ 0 T12 66/ 0 42/ 0 93/ 0 58/ 0 66/ 0 CIG VIS OBV N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N
19 Decoding MOS - Cloud Cover CL = Clear, no clouds SC = Scattered, between clear and sky 1/2 filled with clouds BK = Broken, 1/2 - totally cloudy OV = Overcast Decoding MOS Winds KMIA AVN MOS GUIDANCE 9/04/ UTC DT /SEPT 4 /SEPT 5 /SEPT 6 / HR X/N TMP DPT CLD BK BK BK OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV BK WDR WSP P P Q Q T06 33/ 0 64/ 0 21/ 0 19/ 0 42/ 0 80/ 0 37/ 0 37/ 0 39/ 0 22/ 0 T12 66/ 0 42/ 0 93/ 0 58/ 0 66/ 0 CIG VIS OBV N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N Meteorology Wind Direction 180 = From the South 090 = From the East 270 = From the West 000 = From the North
20 Decoding MOS Chance of measurable precipitation KMIA AVN MOS GUIDANCE 9/04/ UTC DT /SEPT 4 /SEPT 5 /SEPT 6 / HR X/N TMP DPT CLD BK BK BK OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV BK WDR WSP P P Q Q T06 33/ 0 64/ 0 21/ 0 19/ 0 42/ 0 80/ 0 37/ 0 37/ 0 39/ 0 22/ 0 T12 66/ 0 42/ 0 93/ 0 58/ 0 66/ 0 CIG VIS OBV N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N Decoding MOS Quantitative Precipitation Forecast KMIA AVN MOS GUIDANCE 9/04/ UTC DT /SEPT 4 /SEPT 5 /SEPT 6 / HR X/N TMP DPT CLD BK BK BK OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV BK WDR WSP P P Q Q T06 33/ 0 64/ 0 21/ 0 19/ 0 42/ 0 80/ 0 37/ 0 37/ 0 39/ 0 22/ 0 T12 66/ 0 42/ 0 93/ 0 58/ 0 66/ 0 CIG VIS OBV N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N T06, T12: probability of thunderstorms / severe t-storms over 6, 12h Decoding MOS Precip. Amount 0 = no precipitation 1 = 0.01 to 0.09 inches 2 = 0.10 to 0.24 inches 3 = 0.25 to 0.49 inches 4 = 0.50 to 0.99 inches 5 = 1.00 to 1.99 inches 6 = 2.00 inches or greater
21 Decoding MOS Local forecast KMIA AVN MOS GUIDANCE 9/04/ UTC DT /SEPT 4 /SEPT 5 /SEPT 6 / HR X/N TMP DPT CLD BK BK BK OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV BK WDR WSP P P Q Q High Temperature: 89F Low Temperature: 77F Precipitation Category: Cat-4 Decoding MOS Zone Forecast KMIA AVN MOS GUIDANCE 9/04/ UTC DT /SEPT 4 /SEPT 5 /SEPT 6 / HR X/N TMP DPT CLD BK BK BK OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV BK WDR WSP P P Q Q T06 33/ 0 64/ 0 21/ 0 19/ 0 42/ 0 80/ 0 37/ 0 37/ 0 39/ 0 22/ 0 T12 66/ 0 42/ 0 93/ 0 58/ 0 66/ 0 Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 70s. Light southeast winds. Chance of rain 30%. Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Highs near 90. Light southwest winds. Chance of rain 70%. Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 70s. Light southwest winds. Chance of rain 70%. Decoding MOS Zone Forecast KMIA AVN MOS GUIDANCE 9/04/ UTC DT /SEPT 4 /SEPT 5 /SEPT 6 / HR X/N TMP DPT CLD BK BK BK OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV BK WDR WSP P P Q Q T06 33/ 0 64/ 0 21/ 0 19/ 0 42/ 0 80/ 0 37/ 0 37/ 0 39/ 0 22/ 0 T12 66/ 0 42/ 0 93/ 0 58/ 0 66/ 0 Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 70s. Light southeast winds. Chance of rain 30%. Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Highs near 90. Light southwest winds. Chance of rain 70%. Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 70s. Light southwest winds. Chance of rain 70%.
22 Description of MOS Alphanumeric Message
23 Definitions of Categorical Elements
Chapter 3: Weather Map. Weather Maps. The Station Model. Weather Map on 7/7/2005 4/29/2011
Chapter 3: Weather Map Weather Maps Many variables are needed to described weather conditions. Local weathers are affected by weather pattern. We need to see all the numbers describing weathers at many
More informationSIXTH GRADE WEATHER 1 WEEK LESSON PLANS AND ACTIVITIES
SIXTH GRADE WEATHER 1 WEEK LESSON PLANS AND ACTIVITIES WATER CYCLE OVERVIEW OF SIXTH GRADE WATER WEEK 1. PRE: Evaluating components of the water cycle. LAB: Experimenting with porosity and permeability.
More informationBasics of weather interpretation
Basics of weather interpretation Safety at Sea Seminar, April 2 nd 2016 Dr. Gina Henderson Oceanography Dept., USNA ghenders@usna.edu Image source: http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/naturalhazards/view.php?id=80399,
More informationChapter 3: Weather Map. Station Model and Weather Maps Pressure as a Vertical Coordinate Constant Pressure Maps Cross Sections
Chapter 3: Weather Map Station Model and Weather Maps Pressure as a Vertical Coordinate Constant Pressure Maps Cross Sections Weather Maps Many variables are needed to described dweather conditions. Local
More informationName Period 4 th Six Weeks Notes 2015 Weather
Name Period 4 th Six Weeks Notes 2015 Weather Radiation Convection Currents Winds Jet Streams Energy from the Sun reaches Earth as electromagnetic waves This energy fuels all life on Earth including the
More informationHow to analyze synoptic-scale weather patterns Table of Contents
How to analyze synoptic-scale weather patterns Table of Contents Before You Begin... 2 1. Identify H and L pressure systems... 3 2. Locate fronts and determine frontal activity... 5 3. Determine surface
More information2. The map below shows high-pressure and low-pressure weather systems in the United States.
1. Which weather instrument has most improved the accuracy of weather forecasts over the past 40 years? 1) thermometer 3) weather satellite 2) sling psychrometer 4) weather balloon 6. Wind velocity is
More informationWEATHER AND CLIMATE practice test
WEATHER AND CLIMATE practice test Multiple Choice Identify the choice that best completes the statement or answers the question. 1. What role does runoff play in the water cycle? a. It is the process in
More informationActivity 8 Drawing Isobars Level 2 http://www.uni.edu/storm/activities/level2/index.shtml
Activity 8 Drawing Isobars Level 2 http://www.uni.edu/storm/activities/level2/index.shtml Objectives: 1. Students will be able to define and draw isobars to analyze air pressure variations. 2. Students
More informationTemperature and Humidity
Temperature and Humidity Overview Water vapor is a very important gas in the atmosphere and can influence many things like condensation and the formation of clouds and rain, as well as how hot or cold
More informationRead and study the following information. After reading complete the review questions. Clouds
Name: Pd: Read and study the following information. After reading complete the review questions. Clouds What are clouds? A cloud is a large collection of very tiny droplets of water or ice crystals. The
More informationThe Anatomy of a Forecast
The Anatomy of a Forecast The Met Service issues forecasts for sky condition, precipitation probability, wind, seas state and temperature on a routine basis. Because the weather is always changing, the
More informationHurricanes. Characteristics of a Hurricane
Hurricanes Readings: A&B Ch. 12 Topics 1. Characteristics 2. Location 3. Structure 4. Development a. Tropical Disturbance b. Tropical Depression c. Tropical Storm d. Hurricane e. Influences f. Path g.
More informationTexas Department of Public Safety Texas Division of Emergency Management. Texas State Operations Center
Texas Department of Public Safety Texas Division of Emergency Management Texas State Operations Center Situation Awareness Brief Saturday, July 20 th 2013 As of 0900 CDT Tropical Weather Outlook For the
More informationWeather Forecasting. DELTA SCIENCE READER Overview... 103 Before Reading... 104 Guide the Reading... 105 After Reading... 114
Weather Forecasting T ABLE OF CONTENTS ABOUT DELTA SCIENCE MODULES Program Introduction................... iii Teacher s Guide..................... iv Delta Science Readers................ vi Equipment
More information7613-1 - Page 1. Weather Unit Exam Pre-Test Questions
Weather Unit Exam Pre-Test Questions 7613-1 - Page 1 Name: 1) Equal quantities of water are placed in four uncovered containers with different shapes and left on a table at room temperature. From which
More informationPlease be sure to save a copy of this activity to your computer!
Thank you for your purchase Please be sure to save a copy of this activity to your computer! This activity is copyrighted by AIMS Education Foundation. All rights reserved. No part of this work may be
More informationWeather Radar Basics
Weather Radar Basics RADAR: Radio Detection And Ranging Developed during World War II as a method to detect the presence of ships and aircraft (the military considered weather targets as noise) Since WW
More informationHeat Transfer and the Movement of Air
LESSON 4 Heat Transfer and the Movement of Air INTRODUCTION How can a hang glider stay up in the air for hours without a motor? How can a bird soar over an open field without flapping its wings? They can
More information1 AOS 452 Lab 1: Meteorological data decoding and forecast preparation
1 AOS 452 Lab 1: Meteorological data decoding and forecast preparation This semester we will be using a variety of programs and software specific to meteorology. The first program we will focus on is:
More informationStorms Short Study Guide
Name: Class: Date: Storms Short Study Guide Multiple Choice Identify the letter of the choice that best completes the statement or answers the question. 1. A(n) thunderstorm forms because of unequal heating
More information5. Why does the weather near cities tend to be cloudier and wetter than in rural areas?
Name: Date: 1. Today weather forecasting is better because of the use of A. barometers. B. telescopes. C. satellites. D. anemometers. 2. The letter H is the weather symbol for A. hail storms. B. humidity.
More informationHow do I measure the amount of water vapor in the air?
How do I measure the amount of water vapor in the air? Materials 2 Centigrade Thermometers Gauze Fan Rubber Band Tape Overview Water vapor is a very important gas in the atmosphere and can influence many
More informationBasic Climatological Station Metadata Current status. Metadata compiled: 30 JAN 2008. Synoptic Network, Reference Climate Stations
Station: CAPE OTWAY LIGHTHOUSE Bureau of Meteorology station number: Bureau of Meteorology district name: West Coast State: VIC World Meteorological Organization number: Identification: YCTY Basic Climatological
More informationName: OBJECTIVES Correctly define: WEATHER BASICS: STATION MODELS: MOISTURE: PRESSURE AND WIND: Weather
Name: OBJECTIVES Correctly define: air mass, air pressure, anemometer, barometer, cyclone, dew point, front, isobar, isotherm, meteorology, precipitation, psychrometer, relative humidity, saturated, transpiration
More informationAntecedent Conditions:
Antecedent Conditions: Record to Near Record Heat occurred across Northeast & North Central Colorado September 2-8. A cold front moved across Northeast Colorado the morning of the 9 th, and deeper subtropical
More informationApplication of Numerical Weather Prediction Models for Drought Monitoring. Gregor Gregorič Jožef Roškar Environmental Agency of Slovenia
Application of Numerical Weather Prediction Models for Drought Monitoring Gregor Gregorič Jožef Roškar Environmental Agency of Slovenia Contents 1. Introduction 2. Numerical Weather Prediction Models -
More informationRE: James vs. ABC Company Greentown, NJ D/A: February 20, 2011
PO Box 7100 Hackettstown, NJ 07840 Phone: 1 800 427 3456 Fax: 908-850-8664 http://www.weatherworksinc.com June 16, 2012 Attn: John Doe Law Offices of John Doe 123 Fourth Street Smithtown, NJ 04506 RE:
More informationclimate science A SHORT GUIDE TO This is a short summary of a detailed discussion of climate change science.
A SHORT GUIDE TO climate science This is a short summary of a detailed discussion of climate change science. For more information and to view the full report, visit royalsociety.org/policy/climate-change
More informationComparative Evaluation of High Resolution Numerical Weather Prediction Models COSMO-WRF
3 Working Group on Verification and Case Studies 56 Comparative Evaluation of High Resolution Numerical Weather Prediction Models COSMO-WRF Bogdan Alexandru MACO, Mihaela BOGDAN, Amalia IRIZA, Cosmin Dănuţ
More informationMid latitude Cyclonic Storm System. 08 _15 ab. jpg
Mid latitude Cyclonic Storm System 08 _15 ab. jpg Mid Latitude Cyclone Storm System (MLCSS) It has several names. Cyclone, Cyclonic Storm, Cyclonic System, Depression. Cyclonic Storms are the weather maker
More informationHeavy Rainfall from Hurricane Connie August 1955 By Michael Kozar and Richard Grumm National Weather Service, State College, PA 16803
Heavy Rainfall from Hurricane Connie August 1955 By Michael Kozar and Richard Grumm National Weather Service, State College, PA 16803 1. Introduction Hurricane Connie became the first hurricane of the
More informationPartnerships Implementing Engineering Education Worcester Polytechnic Institute Worcester Public Schools
Partnerships Implementing Engineering Education Worcester Polytechnic Institute Worcester Public Schools Supported by: National Science Foundation Weather: 4.H.3 Weather and Classical Instruments Grade
More informationThe impact of window size on AMV
The impact of window size on AMV E. H. Sohn 1 and R. Borde 2 KMA 1 and EUMETSAT 2 Abstract Target size determination is subjective not only for tracking the vector but also AMV results. Smaller target
More informationUK Flooding April to July
UK Flooding April to July Prepared by JBA Risk Management Limited and Met Office July JBA Risk Management Limited Met Office www.jbarisk.com www.metoffice.gov.uk Overview After a very dry start to the
More informationEXPLANATION OF WEATHER ELEMENTS AND VARIABLES FOR THE DAVIS VANTAGE PRO 2 MIDSTREAM WEATHER STATION
EXPLANATION OF WEATHER ELEMENTS AND VARIABLES FOR THE DAVIS VANTAGE PRO 2 MIDSTREAM WEATHER STATION The Weather Envoy consists of two parts: the Davis Vantage Pro 2 Integrated Sensor Suite (ISS) and the
More informationMonsoon Variability and Extreme Weather Events
Monsoon Variability and Extreme Weather Events M Rajeevan National Climate Centre India Meteorological Department Pune 411 005 rajeevan@imdpune.gov.in Outline of the presentation Monsoon rainfall Variability
More informationAssignment Discovery Online Curriculum. Lesson title: Weather Maps. Grade level: 4-6. Subject area: Earth Science. Duration: Two class periods
Assignment Discovery Online Curriculum Lesson title: Weather Maps Grade level: 4-6 Subject area: Earth Science Duration: Two class periods Objectives: Students will do the following: Understand basic information
More informationCOMMON CORE Lessons & Activities
T E AC H I T SA M PL E COMMON CORE Lessons & Activities DAY! O T Common Core Lessons & Activities: Weather By Carole Marsh Published by Gallopade International, Inc. Carole Marsh/Gallopade Printed in the
More informationAir Masses and Fronts
Air Masses and Fronts Air Masses The weather of the United States east of the Rocky Mountains is dominated by large masses of air that travel south from the wide expanses of land in Canada, and north from
More informationAnyone Else Notice That Its Been Windy Lately?
National Weather Service Aberdeen, South Dakota January 2014 Inside this issue: Has it Been Windy Lately or What? 2013 Year in Review 2013 Year in Review (cont.) 1 2 3 Has it Been Windy Lately or What?
More informationSITE SPECIFIC WEATHER ANALYSIS REPORT
SAMPLE FLOOD ANALYSIS REPORT SITE SPECIFIC WEATHER ANALYSIS REPORT PREPARED FOR: Law Offices of Oliver Wendell Douglas Oliver Wendell Douglas PREPARED BY: November 29, 2007 CASE REFERENCE: Arnold Ziffel
More informationATM S 111, Global Warming: Understanding the Forecast
ATM S 111, Global Warming: Understanding the Forecast DARGAN M. W. FRIERSON DEPARTMENT OF ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES DAY 1: OCTOBER 1, 2015 Outline How exactly the Sun heats the Earth How strong? Important concept
More informationSouthern AER Atmospheric Education Resource
Southern AER Atmospheric Education Resource Vol. 9 No. 5 Spring 2003 Editor: Lauren Bell In this issue: g Climate Creations exploring mother nature s remote control for weather and Climate. g Crazy Climate
More information6 th Grade Science Assessment: Weather & Water Select the best answer on the answer sheet. Please do not make any marks on this test.
Select the be answer on the answer sheet. Please do not make any marks on this te. 1. Weather is be defined as the A. changes that occur in cloud formations from day to day. B. amount of rain or snow that
More informationClimate Extremes Research: Recent Findings and New Direc8ons
Climate Extremes Research: Recent Findings and New Direc8ons Kenneth Kunkel NOAA Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites North Carolina State University and National Climatic Data Center h#p://assessment.globalchange.gov
More informationThe IPCC Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation
The IPCC Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation A changing climate leads to changes in extreme weather and climate events 2 How do changes
More informationModel Output Statistics Provide Essential Data for Small Airports
June 2006 NOAA s National Weather Service Volume 6, Number 2 Model Output Statistics Provide Essential Data for Small Airports By Scott C. Dennstaedt, Nationwide FAA Certified Flight Instructor scott@chesavtraining.com
More informationHow do Scientists Forecast Thunderstorms?
How do Scientists Forecast Thunderstorms? Objective In the summer, over the Great Plains, weather predictions often call for afternoon thunderstorms. While most of us use weather forecasts to help pick
More informationThe Pennsylvania Observer
The Pennsylvania Observer August 3, 2009 July 2009 - Pennsylvania Weather Recap Written by: Dan DePodwin After a cool month of June, some hoped July would bring usual summertime warmth to the state of
More informationPrecipitation forms from water droplets or ice crystals.
KEY CONCEPT Water falls to Earth s surface as precipitation. BEFORE, you learned Water moves between Earth's surface and the atmosphere Water vapor condenses into clouds NOW, you will learn How precipitation
More informationWeather Map Symbols, Abbreviations, and Features
Weather Map Symbols, Abbreviations, and Features Table of Contents 1. Symbols... 2 Pressure Systems/Fronts... 2 Precipitation... 3 Wind Speed... 4 Center pressures (on Surface Maps)... 4 2. Abbreviations...
More informationMIAMI-SOUTH FLORIDA National Weather Service Forecast Office http://www.weather.gov/miami
MIAMI-SOUTH FLORIDA National Weather Service Forecast Office http://www.weather.gov/miami November 2014 Weather Summary Cooler and Drier than Normal December 1, 2014: Cooler than normal temperatures was
More informationPut the following words and phrases in order from the least strong to the strongest:
Match the correct adjectives to the days they describe: 1 a warm, sunny summer s day 2 a very cold winter s day 3 a wet, miserable, cloudy day 4 a cold early morning with poor visibility misty chilly mild
More informationWeather Briefing for Southeast Texas October 24 th, 2015
Weather Briefing for Southeast Texas October 24 th, 2015 Dangerous Flash Flood Event Saturday through Sunday 8:16 AM Overview Ongoing: record deep moisture in place, elevated seas, rip currents, high surf,
More informationFOURTH GRADE WEATHER
FOURTH GRADE WEATHER 1 WEEK LESSON PLANS AND ACTIVITIES WATER CYCLE OVERVIEW OF FOURTH GRADE WATER WEEK 1. PRE: Comparing different reservoirs of water. LAB: Experimenting with surface tension and capillary
More informationTropical Cyclone Report Hurricane Fausto (EP072008) 16-22 July 2008. John L. Beven II National Hurricane Center 19 November 2008
Tropical Cyclone Report Hurricane Fausto (EP072008) 16-22 July 2008 John L. Beven II National Hurricane Center 19 November 2008 Fausto was a category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale that
More informationCLIMATE, WATER & LIVING PATTERNS THINGS
CLIMATE, WATER & LIVING PATTERNS NAME THE SIX MAJOR CLIMATE REGIONS DESCRIBE EACH CLIMATE REGION TELL THE FIVE FACTORS THAT AFFECT CLIMATE EXPLAIN HOW THOSE FACTORS AFFECT CLIMATE DESCRIBE HOW CLIMATES
More informationFOR SUBSCRIBERS ONLY! - TRIAL PASSWORD USERS MAY NOT REPRODUCE AND DISTRIBUTE PRINTABLE MATERIALS OFF THE SOLPASS WEBSITE!
FOR SUBSCRIBERS ONLY! - TRIAL PASSWORD USERS MAY NOT REPRODUCE AND DISTRIBUTE PRINTABLE MATERIALS OFF THE SOLPASS WEBSITE! 1 NAME DATE GRADE 5 SCIENCE SOL REVIEW WEATHER LABEL the 3 stages of the water
More informationUse of numerical weather forecast predictions in soil moisture modelling
Use of numerical weather forecast predictions in soil moisture modelling Ari Venäläinen Finnish Meteorological Institute Meteorological research ari.venalainen@fmi.fi OBJECTIVE The weather forecast models
More informationSolar Irradiance Forecasting Using Multi-layer Cloud Tracking and Numerical Weather Prediction
Solar Irradiance Forecasting Using Multi-layer Cloud Tracking and Numerical Weather Prediction Jin Xu, Shinjae Yoo, Dantong Yu, Dong Huang, John Heiser, Paul Kalb Solar Energy Abundant, clean, and secure
More informationMixing Heights & Smoke Dispersion. Casey Sullivan Meteorologist/Forecaster National Weather Service Chicago
Mixing Heights & Smoke Dispersion Casey Sullivan Meteorologist/Forecaster National Weather Service Chicago Brief Introduction Fire Weather Program Manager Liaison between the NWS Chicago office and local
More informationHumidity, Condensation, Clouds, and Fog. Water in the Atmosphere
Humidity, Condensation, Clouds, and Fog or Water in the Atmosphere The Hydrologic Cycle Where the Water Exists on Earth Evaporation From the Oceans and Land The Source of Water Vapor for the Atmosphere
More informationEmpirical study of the temporal variation of a tropical surface temperature on hourly time integration
Global Advanced Research Journal of Physical and Applied Sciences Vol. 4 (1) pp. 051-056, September, 2015 Available online http://www.garj.org/garjpas/index.htm Copyright 2015 Global Advanced Research
More informationMeteorology: Weather and Climate
Meteorology: Weather and Climate Large Scale Weather Systems Lecture 1 Tropical Cyclones: Location and Structure Prof. Roy Thompson Crew building Large-scale Weather Systems Tropical cyclones (1-2) Location,
More informationWeatherBug Vocabulary Bingo
Type of Activity: Game: Interactive activity that is competitive, and allows students to learn at the same time. Activity Overview: WeatherBug Bingo is a fun and engaging game for you to play with students!
More informationArizona Climate Summary February 2015 Summary of conditions for January 2015
Arizona Climate Summary February 2015 Summary of conditions for January 2015 January 2015 Temperature and Precipitation Summary January 1 st 14 th : January started off with a very strong low pressure
More informationActivity 4 Clouds Over Your Head Level 1
Activity 4 Clouds Over Your Head Level 1 1 Objectives: Students will become familiar with the four main types of clouds: stratus, cirrus, cumulus, and cumulonimbus and their characteristics. Students will
More informationTemperature affects water in the air.
KEY CONCEPT Most clouds form as air rises and cools. BEFORE, you learned Water vapor circulates from Earth to the atmosphere Warm air is less dense than cool air and tends to rise NOW, you will learn How
More informationFIRST GRADE 1 WEEK LESSON PLANS AND ACTIVITIES
FIRST GRADE 1 WEEK LESSON PLANS AND ACTIVITIES UNIVERSE CYCLE OVERVIEW OF FIRST GRADE UNIVERSE WEEK 1. PRE: Describing the Universe. LAB: Comparing and contrasting bodies that reflect light. POST: Exploring
More informationChapter Overview. Seasons. Earth s Seasons. Distribution of Solar Energy. Solar Energy on Earth. CHAPTER 6 Air-Sea Interaction
Chapter Overview CHAPTER 6 Air-Sea Interaction The atmosphere and the ocean are one independent system. Earth has seasons because of the tilt on its axis. There are three major wind belts in each hemisphere.
More informationActivity 1 Reading Universal Time Level 2 http://www.uni.edu/storm/activities/level2/index.shtml
Activity 1 Reading Universal Time Level 2 http://www.uni.edu/storm/activities/level2/index.shtml National Science Education Standards: As a result of activities in grades 5-8, all students should develop
More informationGeography affects climate.
KEY CONCEPT Climate is a long-term weather pattern. BEFORE, you learned The Sun s energy heats Earth s surface unevenly The atmosphere s temperature changes with altitude Oceans affect wind flow NOW, you
More informationIMPACT OF SAINT LOUIS UNIVERSITY-AMERENUE QUANTUM WEATHER PROJECT MESONET DATA ON WRF-ARW FORECASTS
IMPACT OF SAINT LOUIS UNIVERSITY-AMERENUE QUANTUM WEATHER PROJECT MESONET DATA ON WRF-ARW FORECASTS M. J. Mueller, R. W. Pasken, W. Dannevik, T. P. Eichler Saint Louis University Department of Earth and
More informationHIGH RESOLUTION SATELLITE IMAGERY OF THE NEW ZEALAND AREA: A VIEW OF LEE WAVES*
Weather and Climate (1982) 2: 23-29 23 HIGH RESOLUTION SATELLITE IMAGERY OF THE NEW ZEALAND AREA: A VIEW OF LEE WAVES* C. G. Revell New Zealand Meteorological Service, Wellington ABSTRACT Examples of cloud
More informationOutline of RGB Composite Imagery
Outline of RGB Composite Imagery Data Processing Division, Data Processing Department Meteorological Satellite Center (MSC) JMA Akihiro SHIMIZU 29 September, 2014 Updated 6 July, 2015 1 Contents What s
More informationFACTS ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE
FACTS ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE 1. What is climate change? Climate change is a long-term shift in the climate of a specific location, region or planet. The shift is measured by changes in features associated
More informationWhat Causes Climate? Use Target Reading Skills
Climate and Climate Change Name Date Class Climate and Climate Change Guided Reading and Study What Causes Climate? This section describes factors that determine climate, or the average weather conditions
More informationPUSD High Frequency Word List
PUSD High Frequency Word List For Reading and Spelling Grades K-5 High Frequency or instant words are important because: 1. You can t read a sentence or a paragraph without knowing at least the most common.
More informationClimates are described by the same conditions used to describe
58 The Causes of Climate R E A D I N G Climates are described by the same conditions used to describe weather, such as temperature, precipitation, and wind. You now know that oceans have an important effect
More information6.9 A NEW APPROACH TO FIRE WEATHER FORECASTING AT THE TULSA WFO. Sarah J. Taylor* and Eric D. Howieson NOAA/National Weather Service Tulsa, Oklahoma
6.9 A NEW APPROACH TO FIRE WEATHER FORECASTING AT THE TULSA WFO Sarah J. Taylor* and Eric D. Howieson NOAA/National Weather Service Tulsa, Oklahoma 1. INTRODUCTION The modernization of the National Weather
More informationClimate of Illinois Narrative Jim Angel, state climatologist. Introduction. Climatic controls
Climate of Illinois Narrative Jim Angel, state climatologist Introduction Illinois lies midway between the Continental Divide and the Atlantic Ocean, and the state's southern tip is 500 miles north of
More informationFry Phrases Set 1. TeacherHelpForParents.com help for all areas of your child s education
Set 1 The people Write it down By the water Who will make it? You and I What will they do? He called me. We had their dog. What did they say? When would you go? No way A number of people One or two How
More informationWinds. Winds on a weather map are represented by wind barbs; e.g., Notes:
Winds Winds on a weather map are represented by wind barbs; e.g., flag half flag pennant wind direction The wind is blowing from the side with the flags and pennants (think an arrow with feathers) Speeds
More informationHow Do Oceans Affect Weather and Climate?
How Do Oceans Affect Weather and Climate? In Learning Set 2, you explored how water heats up more slowly than land and also cools off more slowly than land. Weather is caused by events in the atmosphere.
More informationCGC1D1: Interactions in the Physical Environment Factors that Affect Climate
Name: Date: Day/Period: CGC1D1: Interactions in the Physical Environment Factors that Affect Climate Chapter 12 in the Making Connections textbook deals with Climate Connections. Use pages 127-144 to fill
More informationPressure. Curriculum for Excellence. Weather and Climate Cross-curricular project Section 2. Background Information:
Curriculum for Excellence Weather and Climate Cross-curricular project Section 2 Pressure Background Information: Air pressure is the force exerted by air particles. The air around us pushes on us and
More informationList 10 different words to describe the weather in the box, below.
Weather and Climate Lesson 1 Web Quest: What is the Weather? List 10 different words to describe the weather in the box, below. How do we measure the weather? Use this web link to help you: http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/weatherwise/activities/weatherstation/
More informationENGLISH PLACEMENT TEST
ENGLISH PLACEMENT TEST NAME: Look at these examples. The correct answers are underlined. a) In warm climates people like / likes / are liking sitting outside in the sun. b) If it is very hot, they sit
More informationWeather Merit Badge Workbook
Merit Badge Workbook This workbook can help you but you still need to read the merit badge pamphlet. The work space provided for each requirement should be used by the Scout to make notes for discussing
More informationClimate Trends In New England and Its Impact on Storm Behavior; Riverine and Coastal Flood Impacts
2 ND ANNUAL CAPE COASTAL CONFERENCE JUNE 6 Linking Science with Local Solutions and Decision-Making Climate Trends In New England and Its Impact on Storm Behavior; Riverine and Coastal Flood Impacts David
More informationNetworking Break 3:00 pm 3:30 pm
Networking Break 3:00 pm 3:30 pm Sponsored by: Track D: Claims Technology & Innovation Forensic Meteorology: How Weather Experts, Advanced Data and Computer Models Are Now Being Used For Claims Investigations
More informationAn Analysis of the Rossby Wave Theory
An Analysis of the Rossby Wave Theory Morgan E. Brown, Elise V. Johnson, Stephen A. Kearney ABSTRACT Large-scale planetary waves are known as Rossby waves. The Rossby wave theory gives us an idealized
More informationUSING THE GOES 3.9 µm SHORTWAVE INFRARED CHANNEL TO TRACK LOW-LEVEL CLOUD-DRIFT WINDS ABSTRACT
USING THE GOES 3.9 µm SHORTWAVE INFRARED CHANNEL TO TRACK LOW-LEVEL CLOUD-DRIFT WINDS Jason P. Dunion 1 and Christopher S. Velden 2 1 NOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research Division, 2 UW/CIMSS ABSTRACT Low-level
More informationbarometer 1 of 5 For the complete encyclopedic entry with media resources, visit: http://education.nationalgeographic.com/encyclopedia/barometer/
This website would like to remind you: Your browser (Apple Safari 4) is out of date. Update your browser for more security, comfort and the best experience on this site. Encyclopedic Entry For the complete
More informationYEAR 1: Seasons and Weather
YEAR 1: Seasons and Weather Contents Include: The four seasons Tools to record the weather Making graphs Clouds Weather forecasts Weather around the world Please Note: The activities included in this pack
More informationOverview of the IR channels and their applications
Ján Kaňák Slovak Hydrometeorological Institute Jan.kanak@shmu.sk Overview of the IR channels and their applications EUMeTrain, 14 June 2011 Ján Kaňák, SHMÚ 1 Basics in satellite Infrared image interpretation
More informationCloud Grid Information Objective Dvorak Analysis (CLOUD) at the RSMC Tokyo - Typhoon Center
Cloud Grid Information Objective Dvorak Analysis (CLOUD) at the RSMC Tokyo - Typhoon Center Kenji Kishimoto, Masaru Sasaki and Masashi Kunitsugu Forecast Division, Forecast Department Japan Meteorological
More informationMeteorological Forecasting of DNI, clouds and aerosols
Meteorological Forecasting of DNI, clouds and aerosols DNICast 1st End-User Workshop, Madrid, 2014-05-07 Heiner Körnich (SMHI), Jan Remund (Meteotest), Marion Schroedter-Homscheidt (DLR) Overview What
More informationMotion & The Global Positioning System (GPS)
Grade Level: K - 8 Subject: Motion Prep Time: < 10 minutes Duration: 30 minutes Objective: To learn how to analyze GPS data in order to track an object and derive its velocity from positions and times.
More information