HIGH SPEED RAIL IN NORWAY METHOD, RESULTS AND RECEPTION IN

Transcription

1 HIGH SPEED RAIL IN NORWAY METHOD, RESULTS AND RECEPTION IN USE OF LCA FOR POLICY ANALYSIS Johan Berg Pettersen* and Håvard Bergsdal * johan@misa.no MiSA Miljøsystemanalyse

2 Background Norwegian high speed rail assessment (Høyhastighetsutredningen) High speed = 250/330 kph 2 year project completed in corridors connecting Oslo Bergen/Stavanger/Kristiansand/Trondheim/Sweden Costs, market, safety, technical, alignments & environment 60 year assessment period (for GHG): Market data 2024/2043/2060 and constant thereafter Focus on GHG emissions Norwegian high speed railway Construction: tunnels, bridges, open sections, railway components Operation & maintenance: train sets, electricity, railway components Alternative transport modes Road-based: private car, coach bus Classic rail Airplanes High speed ferry (coastline) Pettersen, Bergsdal: High speed rail in Norway - SETAC LCA case studies 2012

3 Scenario analysis present 2050 High speed rail electricity & construction 100 % double track and twin tunnels & bridges Electricity: Norwegian (current)/ Nordic (current) /EU (future) Cement production: 37 % secondary materials in clinker in 2050 Steel production: 15 % reduction in energy use, 60 % recycled steel in 2050 Machines: 30 % reduction in fuel use towards 2050 Private cars: electrification & increased fuel efficiency Coach bus: increased fuel efficiency Classic rail (slow train): constant Air transport: increased fuel efficiency in fleet and in connecting transport High speed ferry: increased fuel efficiency

4 Map of corridors Corridors in the assessment

5 Market for high speed rail in Norway Proposed Norwegian high speed lines

6 Market for high speed rail in Norway Proposed Norwegian high speed lines

7 Key parameters for corridors Trondheim-Oslo Stavanger-Oslo Bergen-Oslo (via Haukeli) Bergen/Stavanger-Oslo Bergen-Stavanger Bergen-Oslo (via Numedal) Stockholm-Oslo Gøteborg-Oslo

8 Air transport scenarios W

9 Norwegian transport emissions Emissions per passenger-km in model (Norway) Air transport Passenger car Corridors in the assessment

10 Results 1: Trondheim-Oslo direct CO2e for 60 year assessment period Distribution for HSR components

11 Results 1: Trondheim-Oslo direct CO2e for 60 year assessment period Distribution for HSR infrastructure

12 Results 2: summary for all corridors Trondheim (direct) Bergen (via Haukeli) Bergen (via Numedal)

13 Results 2: summary for all corridors Trondheim (direct) Common features Relatively low tunnel share (< 60 %) Relatively high market (> p/day in 2024) Relatively high transfer from air (> 31 % of passengers) Bergen (via Haukeli) Bergen (via Numedal)

14 Optimization: N1:Q Bergen (Numedal route) Concepts have significant potential for improvement Tunnel proportion 44 % 35 % Departures core/peak 18/8 12/5 19 % reduction in CO2e Pay back period reduced from 47 to ~39 years Optimized Original

15 Reception & public debate Surprise: market and economy are most important factors Commuter line for south of Norway most interesting concept High proportion of tunnels Little transfer of traffic from air, i.e., not significant as GHG measure High total market = more acceptable (political) outcome General misunderstanding regarding operational phase and construction Significance of construction is underestimated by many Electricity is assumed carbon neutral Tunnel importance not accepted (leaked to media) Debate based on European situation: Switzerland Mountainous, but markets do not compare Is 30+ years a long time for sustainability? Politically yes! Most environmental stakeholders disappointed by conclusions Much longer than previous simpler studies concluded Most stakeholders consider high-speed rail to be a commuter system rather than a service for national long-distance transport.

16 a systems perspective to environmental research and consulting