Milk and Milk Products. Price and Trade Update: December

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1 December 215 Milk and Milk Products Price and Trade Update Weekly Newsletter Milk and Milk Products Price and Trade Update: December INTERNATIONAL PRICES: Weak import demand causes prices to fall After rising in September and October, limited buying interest resulted in international dairy prices falling in November, a sign that major importers had accumulated adequate stocks for their immediate needs. Quotations for butter and milk powders dropped, while those for cheese were steady. Milk production in Oceania is anticipated to be lower for the current dairy year, while output in the European Union is expected to be similar to last year. The FAO Dairy Price Index averaged points in November 215, down 4.6 points (2.9 percent) from October. Compared with November 214, quotations for all dairy products ced in the Index were lower: falling by 21.1 percent to USD 1949 per tonne for skimmed milk powder (SMP); by 18.2 percent to USD 315 per tonne for cheddar cheese; by 1.3 percent to USD 242 per tonne for whole milk powder (WMP); and by 6.8 percent to USD 2978 per tonne for butter. 1 The Milk and Milk Products: Price and Trade Update is prepared by the meat and dairy section of the Trade and Markets Division, FAO. The present issue cs developments up to the end of November 215.

2 4 FAO Dairy Export Price Indices: Butter WMP SMP Dairy Index Cheese Trade Outlook: Overview =1 First decline in more than a decade Trade in dairy products is forecast to fall by 1.2 percent in 215 to 71.8 million tonnes of milk equivalent, which would represent the first drop since 21. Although the majority of importing countries are expected to raise their level of importation in 215, including Malaysia, the United States, the United Arab Emirates, Mexico, Venezuela, Brazil, Egypt, Oman and Japan, a sharp downturn in China s purchases, especially of WMP, may cause total dairy trade to fall. Imports by the Russian Federation and, to a lesser extent, Saudi Arabia and the EU, are also forecast to decline. Purchases by the Russian Federation are predicted to fall markedly for the second year in a row, reflecting devaluation of the rouble, along with the continuation of the ban imposed by the country in August 214 on trade with Australia, Canada, the EU, Norway and the United States, which has particularly affected cheese. Among exporters, high domestic prices in the United States and India, relative to those prevailing in the world market, are anticipated to truncate external sales from these countries, especially of skimmed milk powder. Deliveries by Argentina and New Zealand are also expected to fall, following a contraction in output that was partly triggered by low world prices.

3 To a limited extent, a decline in exports by the above countries and elsewhere will be counterbalanced by increased sales by Belarus, Australia and the EU. 14 Milk and Milk Products Imports * f'cast * Milk Equivalent, ' tonnes Milk and Milk Products Exports * f'cast New Zealand EU United States Belarus Australia Argentina * Milk Equivalent, ' tonnes

4 IMPORTS: TOTAL MILK thousand tonnes (Milk Equivalent) (%) World China Mexico Algeria Russian Fed Saudi Arabia Indonesia Malaysia UAE EXPORTS: TOTAL MILK thousand tonnes (Milk Equivalent) prelim. 215 f'cast (%) World New Zealand EU United States Belarus Australia Argentina Whole milk powder (WMP) Trade falls World trade in WMP is projected to drop by 4.1 percent to 2.5 million tonnes in 215, the first decline since 27. Slashed purchases by China, which accounted for nearly 4 percent of world imports in 214, has been the primary factor influencing the market this year. China s year-to-august WMP imports were 48 percent down from 214, stemming from reduced demand and processors utilizing previously imported stock. The sudden, sharp fall mainly affected trade with New Zealand. WMP prices remained weak during 215, well below their peak reached at the start of 214. For example, in November 215, prices averaged USD 2 42 per tonne, 53.1 per cent below their level in January 214. Low international prices have stimulated imports in several major markets, including Venezuela, Algeria, Brazil, the United Arab Emirates, Vietnam, Oman, Malaysia and Indonesia. The decline in world import demand for WMP in 215 is anticipated to impact negatively exports by all the principal exporters, namely New Zealand, Argentina, the EU and Australia, with some smaller scale exporters, such as Chile and the United States also affected. New Zealand, as the largest international supplier of WMP with a 55 percent world market share, furnishing 8 percent of China s WMP imports in 214, has had to make the most adjustment. Despite seeing January-September deliveries to China drop by almost 6 percent year-on year, New Zealand s exports of WMP only fell by 4 percent all during the same period. This was achieved by substantially increasing sales to a wide geographical range of countries, including Algeria, Venezuela, Malaysia, Vietnam, the United Arab Emirates and Nigeria. In some cases, such as Algeria and Nigeria, this substituted for shipments by other exporters that traditionally supply these markets. For example, during the first half of 215,

5 imports by Algeria from New Zealand were up 4 percent compared to the same period in 214, while those originating from the other two principal exporters, the EU and Argentina, fell by 52 percent and 69 percent respectively. For the EU, the loss of sales to Algeria, its major market, led to increased emphasis on exports to the Middle East and the rest of Asia Jan-Sep 211 Jan-Sep 212 Jan-Sep 213 Jan-Sep 214 Jan-Sep 215 * product weight, ' tonnes China: WMP Imports * WMP exports: New Zealand * Jan-Oct 213 Jan-Oct 214 Jan-Oct 215 Algeria United Arab Emirates * Selected countries, product weight, ' tonnes Malaysia Venezuela Vietnam Nigeria

6 IMPORTS: WMP tonnes (product weight) (%) World China Algeria Venezuela UAE Oman Vietnam EXPORTS: WMP tonnes (product weight) (%) World New Zealand EU Argentina Australia Skimmed milk powder (SMP) Trade to grow Trade in SMP is predicted to expand by 3.3 percent in 215 to 2.2 million tonnes, sustained by larger outputs in exporting countries and resulting weak export prices. SMP prices have fallen almost uninterruptedly since early 214, dropping 6 percent, from USD at their peak in February 214 to USD per tonne in November 215. From the exporting countries side, uncertain import demand for WMP, combined with its shorter shelf-life, has made producing SMP a preferred option. Additionally, since dairy prices all began to fall in 214, quotations for butter - SMP s co-product - have fallen far less than those of milk powders, prompting manufacturers to switch production from WMP to SMP/butter. Among importing countries, Malaysia, Thailand, Mexico, the Russian Federation, Brazil, Singapore, Egypt and Japan, amongst others, are anticipated to buy more and be more than sufficient to counterbalance reduced purchases by China, Algeria and Saudi Arabia. In China, the decline in imports is based on lower demand for milk powder in general, while in Algeria, it is a result of changes in relative prices leading to substitution of WMP for SMP, as the all level of milk powder imports is not anticipated to change.

7 25 Algeria: Milk Powders imports * SMP WMP 5 Jan-Jun 213 Jan-Jun 214 Jan-Jun 215 * product weight, ' tonnes Amongst the major exporting countries, the EU, Australia, New Zealand and Belarus are projected to step up sales, while those of India and the United States may decline. Since August 214, the absence of the Russian Federation as a market for its cheese has encouraged the EU to increase the volume of milk channelled into SMP and butter production. As a consequence, EU s shipments of SMP to foreign markets, which had already surged in 214, are forecast to increase further in 215. Australia s continued focus on SMP production for export should also sustain the country s deliveries, especially to Southeast Asia. As for New Zealand, stymied import demand for WMP also led to greater emphasis on SMP production and export, with Southeast Asia again being the principal destination. Belarus is projected to see sales expand, mainly to the Russian Federation, where it is partly filling the void left by the suppliers subject to the Russian ban. Conversely, exports by India, which had surged in 213, but almost halved in 214, are foreseen to decline by another 75 percent in 215, as the domestic market offers more attractive returns. Similarly, the United States could see exports fall by around 1 percent, as currency appreciation and high domestic milk prices have reduced its international competitiveness.

8 EU: SMP exports * Jan-Sep 213 Jan-Sep 214 Jan-Sep 215 * product weight, ' tonnes New Zealand: SMP exports * Jan-Oct 214 Jan-Oct China Singapore Philippines Malaysia Indonesia Thailand * product weight, ' tonnes

9 IMPORTS: SMP tonnes (product weight) (%) World China Mexico Malaysia Algeria Indonesia Russian Fed EXPORTS: SMP tonnes (product weight) (%) World EU United States New Zealand Australia Belarus Butter Imports fall Trade in butter is forecast to contract by 3.7 percent to 942 tonnes in 215, its first fall since 211. However, the decline is anticipated to be less than foreseen earlier in the year, as demand from a number of medium ranking importing countries strengthened (see below). Along with other dairy products, international quotations for butter have fallen, dropping 38.6 percent from USD at their peak in January 214 to USD per tonne in November 215. The contraction in trade is projected to stem mainly from reduced imports by the Russian Federation, the EU and China. The devaluation of the rouble and the origin-specific import ban are the main causes in the case of the Russian Federation, while, in China, it is a reflection of decreased import demand for dairy products in general. For the EU, a fall-off in inward processing (duty-free imports for re-export) caused by the suspension of sales to the Russian Federation has curtailed importation. By contrast, a number of countries are forecast to raise their level of purchases, including the United States, the United Arab Emirates, Mexico and Egypt. In the United States, high domestic prices and abundant supplies on the world market meant that imports rose by almost 14 percent in the year up to October. New Zealand is projected to bear the brunt of the fall in world butter imports, due to a sharp drop in sales to China, its principal export market in recent years, and strong competition from the EU in the Middle East and North Africa. For the United States, increased production of cheese and yogurt and strong domestic demand from the food industry have kept internal butter

10 prices high, which is likely to depress US exports for the second year in a row: sales from January to October were two-thirds lower than in the same period in 214. Meanwhile, as the devaluation of the Euro against several currencies has improved its competitiveness, EU exports are expected to grow beyond last year s substantial level. Elsewhere, Belarus and Uruguay may gain from reduced competition in the Russian Federation s market Butter Imports * f'cast * Selected countries, product weight, ' tonnes Russian Fed. China Egypt Mexico United States UAE EU New Zealand: Butter exports * Jan-Oct 214 Jan-Oct 215 * product weight, ' tonnes

11 IMPORTS: BUTTER tonnes (product weight) (%) World Russian Fed China Egypt Saudi Arabia Mexico United States EXPORTS: BUTTER tonnes (product weight) (%) World New Zealand EU Belarus Australia United States Cheese Slight decline in trade Trade in cheese is forecast to decline slightly in 215, by 1 percent to 23.9 million tonnes. International quotations for cheese have fallen by 4 percent from the peak of USD per tonne in February 214 to stand at USD 3 15 per tonne in November 215. Rising imports by the United States, Mexico, Japan, Republic of Korea, China, Iraq and Australia are anticipated to almost counterbalance a second substantial, annual decline in purchases by the Russian Federation. Amongst the major exporters, a fall in shipments by the United States, the EU and Argentina is predicted to be largely matched by an increase in sales by New Zealand, Belarus and Australia. New Zealand and Australia are projected to export more to Asia and North America, with sales by Belarus to the Russian Federation expected to surge. Buoyant domestic demand and currency appreciation are projected to result in exports by the United States falling sharply, especially to markets in Asia. Meanwhile, the EU, as the cheese exporter most affected by the ban imposed by the Russian Federation in August last year, is forecast to see its cheese deliveries abroad fall by 7 percent. This would be despite much greater EU sales to the United States and to Asia, especially Japan and the Republic of Korea. As exports constitute less than 1 percent of total EU cheese production, the Russian import ban, while affecting specific member countries more than others, has not had a substantial impact on the Union s all output.

12 f'cast * product weight, ' tonnes Cheese Imports * Japan United States Russian Fed. Saudi Arabia Mexico China Rep. of Korea EU: Cheese exports * Aug 12 -July 13 Aug 13- July 14 Aug 14- July 15 * product weight, ' tonnes

13 IMPORTS: CHEESE tonnes (product weight) (%) World Japan United States Russian Fed Saudi Arabia Mexico China Rep. of Korea EXPORTS: CHEESE tonnes (product weight) (%) World EU New Zealand United States Belarus Australia Saudi Arabia For comments or queries please use the following contact: Use of material is subject to credit being given to source: Milk and Milk Products: price and trade update Trade and Markets Division Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

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