2013 NORTH CAROLINA ANNUAL TRADE REPORT

Transcription

1 NORTH CAROLINA ANNUAL TRADE REPORT Overview: North Carolina s steady export growth continued in North Carolina s exports reported steady gains again in, building on four years of growth since the bottom of the recession. Overall, North Carolina exports grew 1.4% in real terms (taking into account price changes) in compared to the previous year, reaching an all-time high of $29.3 billion. Over the past five years, exports have grown almost 10%, while gaining nearly 30% over the past decade. Four of five top sectors rise in, but long-term trends show divergence Chemicals, the state s largest export product, gained $210M, or 3.9% in. Transportation Equipment (#3) gained $107M, or 3.4%; Computer & Electronics (#4) gained $181M, or 6.8%; and Textiles & Fabrics (#5) gained $114M, or 6.5%. Only Machinery (#2) fell in the past year, as exports decreased $177M, or 4.1%. Over the past 10 years, however, there has been more divergence in terms of growth. On the upside, Transportation Equipment, Machinery, and Chemicals have all reported high or steady growth. On the other hand, Textiles & Fabrics and Computer & Electronics, while rebounding a bit over the last year, have fallen over the long run. NC Department of Commerce Labor and Economic Analysis Division & International Trade Division Page 1

2 NORTH CAROLINA ANNUAL TRADE REPORT Top Export Markets Top Export Markets: Canada leads, Mexico grows, and France enters the top five Canada continued as North Carolina s largest export market, accounting for nearly $6.7 billion in exports, and 22.8% of the state s total exports. Mexico surpassed China to become the state s second-largest export market each country accounted for about 9.2% of state exports. Japan held steady at #4 (5.7% of state exports), and France entered the top five (3.4% of total state exports), passing Germany. While these top five markets accounted for just more than half of the state s exports in, 42 countries purchased at least $100 million worth of North Carolina goods, and the state exported to more than 200 countries overall. North Carolina's top export desinations by industry, All Merchandise Exports Chemicals Machinery Equipment Canada $6,686,567,537 Canada $1,149,949,969 Canada $1,205,747,406 Mexico $2,717,914,955 Mexico $579,888,356 Mexico $405,406,507 China $2,701,795,475 Japan $459,622,976 China $260,428,707 Japan $1,672,816,796 Germany $318,221,375 Belgium $259,452,069 France $1,000,723,570 China $300,471,716 Japan $218,262,891 Total All Countries $29,304,355,642 Total All Countries $5,535,685,586 Total All Countries $4,195,481,550 Transportation Equipment Computer & Electronics Textiles & Fabrics Canada $1,079,226,226 Canada $573,348,397 Honduras $624,515,753 France $667,468,097 Hong Kong $494,099,815 Mexico $283,409,287 Mexico $394,712,367 China $422,021,272 Canada $188,578,913 Saudi Arabia $190,540,734 Mexico $158,257,654 Dominican Rep. $180,100,837 United Kingdom $124,816,555 South Korea $108,720,905 China $160,670,748 Total All Countries $3,261,149,847 Total All Countries $2,858,029,709 Total All Countries $1,879,910,629 * Totals are for all NC exports for that industry, not just the top five countries listed in each category. North Carolina export destinations NC Department of Commerce Labor and Economic Analysis Division & International Trade Division Page 2

3 NORTH CAROLINA ANNUAL TRADE REPORT #1 Canada Canada: Exports fall slightly, but still North Carolina s largest export destination North Carolina exports to Canada fell 4.9% over the past year, but our neighbors to the north still remain the state s largest export market, accounting for almost a quarter of total state exports. Machinery continued as the largest export to Canada, but fell 20% from the previous year. Chemical exports, the second-largest export category, grew nearly 10%. Exports to Canada grew slightly at the national and Southeast regional levels. North Carolina's Rankings Exports to Canada Region 2012 Region Export Growth National #13 # % (NC -4.9%) Southeast #3 #3 +1.6% (NC -4.9%) Country Notes The Canadian dollar weakened considerably against the US dollar over the past year and a half, potentially putting pressure on U.S. exporters as American products become relatively more expensive. Overall economic conditions in Canada are generally similar to the US, with GDP edging forward at a slow but steady annual rate of 2%- 3% per year. Industry Notes Machinery, the state s largest export to Canada, was the main driver of the decrease, as it fell 20.1% over the past year to $1.21 billion. o Under Machinery, Agricultural & Construction Machinery exports fell 35.1% to $516M. On the upside, Chemical exports rose nearly $100M in, or 9.5%. o There was broad-based support in the Chemicals category, with Pharmaceuticals & Medicine rising 15.1% and Pesticides & Fertilizers, 16.1% National exports to Canada increased in, rising 2.4%, with exports from the Southeast also up 1.6%. Nationally, the U.S s largest exports to Canada include Transportation Equipment (21.5% of total most of which is Motor Vehicles & Parts), Petroleum & Coal (5.0% of total), and Ag. Machinery (4.0%). NC Department of Commerce Labor and Economic Analysis Division & International Trade Division Page 3

4 NORTH CAROLINA ANNUAL TRADE REPORT #2 Mexico Mexico: Exports rise 17% on strength of Chemicals, Machinery, and Transportation Mexico surpassed China as North Carolina s second-largest export market, as exports to that country grew 16.9%, or almost $400M, over the past year to $2.7 billion. Growth was strong across the board, with notable increases in Chemical and Machinery exports, and a significant 55.6% jump in Transportation Equipment. The state s export growth to Mexico significantly outpaced that from the nation and Southeast. North Carolina's Rankings Exports to Mexico Region 2012 Region Export Growth National #14 # % (NC +16.9%) Southeast #3 #3 +3.7% (NC +16.9%) Country Notes The Mexican government continues to liberalize its economy, notably allowing private investment in the nation s state-run oil company in late. Continued opening of the growing Mexican economy (forecast to grow 3% in 2014) could present new export opportunities. Mexico, along with the U.S., Canada, and several Pacific Rim nations, continue negotiations toward the Trans-Pacific Partnership, described by some as NAFTA on steroids, which could have significant impacts on global trade in the future. Industry Notes Transportation Equipment exports jumped more than 50% over o The growth was led by an $89M rise in Motor Vehicle Parts exports, a 61.6% increase, and a $55M rise in Motor Vehicles, a 57.6% increase. Chemical exports also saw a significant increase, rising 8.7%, or $46M. o Basic Chemical exports led the increase, rising $83M, but were tempered by a $61M fall in Pharmaceuticals & Medicine. Machinery exports also rose 15.9%, or $56M. In, North Carolina was the sixth fastest-growing state in the U.S. in terms of exports to Mexico, helping it rise two spots in the national rankings. Nationally, the U.S s largest exports to Mexico are Computer & Electronics, (17.6% of total exports), and Transportation Equipment (13.5%), most of which are Motor Vehicle Parts. NC Department of Commerce Labor and Economic Analysis Division & International Trade Division Page 4

5 NORTH CAROLINA ANNUAL TRADE REPORT #3 China China: Exports increase 6%, led by Agricultural and Food Products In, exports to China rose $158M, or 6.2%, after a dip in the previous year. While there was moderate growth in the top two export products, Computer & Electronics and Chemicals, the overall growth was led primarily by significant increases in Food and Agricultural Products. Chinese economic growth may slow from its breakneck pace, but export opportunities may grow as incomes rise and Chinese currency strengthens. North Carolina's Rankings Exports to China Region 2012 Region Export Growth National #13 # % (NC +6.2%) Southeast #4 #4 +1.5% (NC +6.2%) Country Notes The Chinese renminbi (aka yuan) continued strengthening over the past year as demand for Chinese products (and thus, its currency) increases, and the Chinese government allows it to float more freely. However, the yuan has begun weakening in recent weeks (March 2014). China s economy grew 7.7% in, and its government is targeting growth of 7.5% in 2014, down from previous years. There are concerns that China will not maintain that growth level without adding to, what some consider, unsustainable rises in corporate and local debt. Industry Notes Computer & Electronics exports, NC s largest export to China, grew by over $35M, or 9.2% o The growth was led by Semiconductors & Electronic Components, which rose nearly $60M, or 20.7%. However, Navigational & Measuring Instruments tempered the gain, as it fell $22M, or 40.4% Food Products grew significantly in, gaining $119M, or 89.5%. o That growth was led almost exclusively by Meat exports (most of which was Pork), which nearly doubled from $131M to $249M. Agricultural Products was another top performing export, growing by $91M, or 62.3%. o Under that category, Other Agricultural Products gained $53M, or 39.9%, and Oilseeds and Grain nearly tripled, gaining $38M. NC Department of Commerce Labor and Economic Analysis Division & International Trade Division Page 5

6 NORTH CAROLINA ANNUAL TRADE REPORT #4 Japan Japan: Exports slow, but growth in Machinery and Computers & Electronics In, North Carolina exports to Japan fell by $104M, or 5.8%, as did U.S. exports to that country overall. The state s top three exports Chemicals, Food, and Beverage & Tobacco all fell in the past year, but Machinery and Computer & Electronics did post gains. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe continued his economic plan, which includes weakening the yen to help make Japanese exports more competitive. North Carolina s Rankings Exports to Japan Region 2012 Region Export Growth National #9 #10-7.1% (NC -5.8%) Southeast #3 #3-10.4% (NC -5.8%) Country Notes Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe continued his Abenomics economic plan in, which included plans to weaken the yen to make the country s exports more competitive on world markets (and make foreign imports more expensive). So far, however, the plan has not delivered results, as the Japanese economy grew at only an annualized 0.7% rate in 4Q. The country is preparing for another significant economic shock as the national sales tax rises from 5% to 8% this April. Industry Notes Chemicals, the state s largest export, fell by $56M, or 10.9% in. o While Basic Chemicals, the largest subcategory, was basically flat in, Pharmaceuticals & Medicine fell by nearly $60M, or 25.0%, after spiking in Food Products were down $20M, or 7.0%, with a fall in Meat exports accounting for most of the decline. Beverage & Tobacco also fell $28M, or 9.4%, with a fall in Tobacco exports accounting for most of the decline. On the upside, both Machinery and Computer & Electronics posted gains in, rising $43M and $22M, respectively. o Exports of Engines & Turbines led the way for Machinery, rising $36M, or 29.3% o On the Computer & Electronics side, Communications Equip. more than tripled, rising nearly $10M. NC Department of Commerce Labor and Economic Analysis Division & International Trade Division Page 6

7 NORTH CAROLINA ANNUAL TRADE REPORT #5 France France: Aerospace drives North Carolina exports to France up 16.6% North Carolina exports to France jumped 16.6% in, almost exclusively on the back of a $192M increase in Transportation Equipment exports. Within that category, Aerospace Products drove the gain, rising $156M, while Motor Vehicle Parts also contributed to the rise. While a strengthening euro could make U.S. exports across the Atlantic more attractive, French economic growth remains anemic. North Carolina's Rankings Exports to France Region 2012 Region Export Growth National #10 # % (NC +16.9%) Southeast #2 # % (NC +16.9%) Industry Notes The North Carolina-French export story is simply a story of Transportation Equipment, which gained $192M in, a 40.3% increase. This export category accounts for more than twothirds of all North Carolina exports to France. o The gain in Transportation was mostly due to Aerospace Products and Parts, which rose $156M, or 35.1%. o Notably, Motor Vehicle Parts also posted a significant increase, more than doubling to $67M in. Most other export categories saw decreases in, with Chemicals falling 10.2%, and Primary Metal Manufacturing losing 35.2%. As a side note, while small, Printing & Publishing exports increased 100-fold, from $141,000 in 2012, to more than $15M in. Country Notes While a weakening dollar may present an opportunity for U.S. exports to Europe, France has been in a bit of a rut economically, as its economy grew only 0.2% over the past 12 months. President François Hollande has recently switched course, adopting a stronger probusiness stance and emphasizing lower taxes. The U.S. is negotiating the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership with the EU, which, if completed (perhaps in late 2014?), would create the largest free-trade zone in the world. NC Department of Commerce Labor and Economic Analysis Division & International Trade Division Page 7

8 NORTH CAROLINA ANNUAL TRADE REPORT Middle East Middle East Focus: Exports to Saudi Arabia rise, but overall exports fall slightly While falling slightly in (down $50M, or 3.2%), exports to the Middle East (including Turkey) have risen over the past four years. Exports to Saudi Arabia, North Carolina s largest export destination in the region, have more than doubled over the past three years. However, exports to Turkey, after peaking in 2011, fell during the past two years. Exports to the United Arab Emirates fell in, as well. Other countries include those Middle East nations receiving less than $100M in NC exports including: Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Iraq, Iran, Jordan, Lebanon, Oman, and the Republic of Yemen. Top Middle East Export Markets Saudi Arabia: Exports to Saudi Arabia increased more than $63M, or 8.6% in. While exports of Machinery fell $44M, or 17.6%, Transportation Equipment rose $37M, or 24.4%. Turkey: Exports to Turkey decreased $34M, or 15.3% in. This was led by a decline in Agricultural exports of nearly $19M, or just over 20%. However, Chemical exports rose almost $5M, or 31.1%. United Arab Emirates: Exports to the UAE fell significantly in more than 41% repeating an up-and-down pattern over the past few years. The primary reason for the decline was a fall in Transportation Equipment of $46M, or 67.8%. Israel: Exports to Israel rose 4.0% on the back of a $4M, or 11.2%, increase in Chemical exports. Top NC exports to Middle East by industry, (amount and % of NC exports to country) Saudi Arabia Turkey Machinery $204,764, % Agricultural Products $71,267, % Transportation Equipment $190,540, % Chemicals $20,635, % Electrical Equipment $99,744, % Wood Products $19,791, % Other $99,498, % Machinery $17,842, % Fabricated Metal Products $42,886, % Nonmetallic Minerals $17,650, % Country Total $802,396,808 Country Total $188,596,979 United Arab Emirates Chemicals $24,308, % Chemicals $44,458, % Machinery $24,214, % Computer & Electronics $15,139, % Transportation Equipment $21,928, % Machinery $12,300, % Plastics & Rubber Products $18,160, % Nonmetallic Minerals $8,294, % Furniture & Fixtures $12,197, % Primary Metal Mfg. $7,468, % Country Total $161,739,921 Country Total $126,793,116 *Country Total includes all NC exports to that country, not just the top five exports listed above. Israel NC Department of Commerce Labor and Economic Analysis Division & International Trade Division Page 8

9 NORTH CAROLINA ANNUAL TRADE REPORT Other Export Markets Other Key Export Markets: Exports to Belgium, India, and Ireland jump in Outside of the top five markets, exports to Belgium (#8) increased almost 15%, as Machinery exports more than doubled over the past year. Exports to India (#15) continued its rise on an almost five-fold increase in Pesticide & Fertilizer shipments. Exports to Ireland (#20) jumped significantly, as Computer & Electronics exports rose four-fold, and the Irish economy continues to recover from the Euro-Zone crisis. Overall, most major destinations for North Carolina exports have seen significant growth since the bottom of the recession. Top 25 North Carolina Export Markets Export Market 2012 Exports Exports Rank % Change (One Year) % Change (Since 2009) Top Export Product () 1 Canada $7,029,589,636 $6,686,567, % 31.8% Machinery 2 Mexico $2,324,410,431 $2,717,914, % 66.6% Chemicals 3 China $2,544,028,661 $2,701,795, % 34.6% Computer & Elec. 4 Japan $1,776,631,311 $1,672,816, % -1.4% Chemicals 5 France $858,292,571 $1,000,723, % -4.1% Transportation 6 Germany $1,044,650,093 $995,655, % 10.6% Chemicals 7 United Kingdom $957,114,896 $898,355, % 12.1% Chemicals 8 Belgium $708,292,567 $811,611, % 116.1% Machinery 9 Saudi Arabia $739,032,991 $802,396, % 148.6% Machinery 10 Hong Kong $818,495,733 $774,940, % 53.8% Computer & Elec. 11 Honduras $758,515,233 $760,245, % 5.5% Textiles & Fabrics 12 Brazil $781,669,009 $741,690, % 11.5% Machinery 13 Netherlands $680,589,947 $709,383, % -58.4% Chemicals 14 South Korea $619,174,060 $689,978, % 29.4% Machinery 15 India $297,593,055 $482,551, % 130.1% Chemicals 16 Australia $465,200,973 $463,352, % -42.0% Chemicals 17 Singapore $352,601,586 $343,332, % 56.8% Primary Metal Mfg. 18 Taiwan $317,622,016 $306,404, % 3.6% Food 19 El Salvador $255,328,349 $273,805, % 20.2% Textiles & Fabrics 20 Ireland $161,865,772 $259,902, % 20.9% Chemicals 21 Dominican Republic $292,500,273 $256,114, % -8.7% Textiles & Fabrics 22 Indonesia $203,409,524 $245,078, % 64.6% Ag. Products 23 Colombia $209,004,200 $237,349, % 23.5% Chemicals 24 Russia $271,136,970 $230,338, % 93.7% Chemicals 25 Italy $231,624,638 $225,738, % -10.4% Paper Global trade trends to watch in 2014 Regional Trade Agreements: As mentioned previously, the U.S. is currently negotiating two major trade agreements: the Trans-Pacific Partnership and the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership. Both are significant developments for U.S. exporters, but Congress has shown recent hesitation in granting the Administration Fast-Track Trade Authority, key to streamlining the ratification process for these pacts. Panama Canal: After a recent stoppage, work has resumed on the massive Panama Canal expansion, which when complete (in 2015?) will help shipments from the East Coast access Asian markets more quickly. NC Department of Commerce Labor and Economic Analysis Division & International Trade Division Page 9

10 NORTH CAROLINA ANNUAL TRADE REPORT Notes The trade report highlights the state s merchandise exports only, as statistics for service exports are not available at the state level. Export statistics in this report are from WISERtrade which uses the U.S. Census Bureau s Origin of Movement (OM) series. The OM series provide export statistics based on the state from which the merchandise starts its journey to the port of export; that is, the data reflect the transportation origin of exports. The transportation origin of exports is not always the same as the location where the goods were produced. More information about export statistics can be found at the U.S. Census website: Unless otherwise noted, all trade statistics are presented in current dollars using the Bureau of Economic Analysis s export price deflators, which allows for more appropriate comparisons across time. Regional divisions are developed by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Southeast region consists of the 12 following states: Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia, and West Virginia. Country notes were gathered from various media sources including The Wall Street Journal, The Economist, and Bloomberg. For questions on this report, please do not hesitate to contact the Labor and Economic Analysis Team at or the International Trade Division at NC Department of Commerce Labor and Economic Analysis Division & International Trade Division Page 10