Nivesh Daily Currency

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1 Nivesh Daily Currency 19 July, 2016 Currency Pivot Levels Currency % OI % Prev OI Close Pair Change Change %Change R * Pivot S* USDINR EURINR GBPINR JPYINR Foreign Currency Update. Currency Pair Close Change in % Dollar Index EURUSD GBPUSD JPYUSD * R= Resistance. S = Support USDINR 27 July,2016 Expiry Option Update Closing. Options LTP %Chg %ChgOI Prev. OI% Chng OI CE CE CE CE CE PE PE PE PE PE RBI Reference Rate (July 18, 2016) Note: Previous day movement of Option, OI and IV is indicating negative move in USDINR. Seema Yadav Research Analyst 9 Tel: seema.yadav@indianivesh.in 1 USD 1 GBP 1 EURO 100 YEN India Nivesh Securities Limited SEBI Registration No.INH & 602, Sukh Sagar, N. S. Patkar Marg, Girgaum Chowpatty, Mumbai Tel: (022)

2 Technical View on Major Currency Pair USDINR ( July Future) Dollar/rupee ended at one-week high Monday on likely overseas funds outflow from local stocks amid dollar buying by nationalized banks on behalf of oil and defence importers. Technical, Bullish engulfing pattern resulted in more than 0.18% positive move in USDINR. On the EOD chart, pair rebounded from the 23.8% Fibonacci Retracement while formed a long bullish candle stick both of which indicating for bullishness in USDINR. Further, pair would need to trade below in order to test and below. Recommendation : LTP Buy around Target Stop loss Important Factor: U.S. Building Permits EURINR ( July Future) Euro traded up during afternoon trades Monday on expectations that European Central Bank president Mario Draghi will keep policy rates unchanged in a meeting scheduled on Thursday. EURINR witnessed a gap down open at compare to previous close of and after hitting a low of settled at Intraday price action resulted in formation of hammer candle stick which is indicating for momentum upside move in EURINR. Further, pair would need to trade below its previous swing low in order to test and below. Recommendation LTP Buy around Target Stop loss Important Factor : Daily German ZEW Economic Sentiment

3 GBP ( July Future) Pound traded up Monday after the Bank of England monetary-policy committee member Martin Weale reiterated that there is still doubt whether the central bank should proceed with a rate cut in August. GBPINR plunged more than 0.85% yesterday and settled at levels. Buy above was not initiated as per the yesterday strategy as after witnessing a gap down open at pair remained below levels. The daily price action resulted in formation of doji candle stick on EOD chart which is indicating for indecisive trend GBPINR. Further, pair would need to trade above in order to test Recommendation : LTP Sell around Target Stop loss Important Factor : CPI y/y JPYINR (July Future) Yen traded up Monday as globally risk appetite increased after the US reported better than expected retail sales data amid waning concerns over Turkey's failed military coup to overthrow the existing President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. JPYINR retraced from the day high , and tested before closing at levels. Intraday price action resulted in formation of high wave candle stick which is indicating for indecisive trend in days to come. Further, immediate resistance is seen at and its expected that any rise towards could attract huge selling activities unless it give a closing above Recommendation/ View : LTP Sell around Stop loss Target Important factor/data from Japan : NIL

4 Major Economic Data & Events Released Yesterday/Earlier today Bank of England policymaker Martin Weale said on Monday he was unsure if he would back an interest rate cut at next month's BoE meeting, in contrast to most of his colleagues who think a cut is likely. The Reserve Bank of Australia on Tuesday in the release of minutes of its July 5 board meeting signaled it may be ready to lower the cash rate further since its assessment is that inflation would remain quite low, but any move is dependent on incoming data. U.S. TIC long term purchases rose to a seasonally adjusted 41.1B, from -67.4B in the preceding month whose figure was revised up from -79.6B. Major Economic Data & Events Schedule today Time Currency Economic Indicators Forecast Previous Possible Impact 1:30am USD TIC Long-Term Purchases 31.6B -79.6B Positive 2:00pm GBP CPI y/y 0.40% 0.30% Positive GBP PPI Input m/m 0.90% 2.60% Negative GBP RPI y/y 1.40% 1.40% Neutral GBP Core CPI y/y 1.30% 1.20% Positive GBP HPI y/y 7.90% 8.20% Negative GBP PPI Output m/m 0.10% 0.10% Neutral 2:30pm EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment Negative EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment Negative 6:00pm USD Building Permits 1.15m 1.14M Negative USD Housing Starts 1.17M 1.16M Negative 7:35pm GBP MPC Member Broadbent Speaks Impact: High Low Medium Note: Economic data expectations are based on median forecast by economists or Reuters and Bloomberg survey. Here positive impact indicates currency could appreciate and negative indicates currency could depreciate in comparison with US Dollar. Technical Chart Source: Ticker News Source: Ticker news, Forexfactory.com, forexlive.com and investing.com *Dos Depends on Statement. DOV Depends on Votes. Source - investing.com, Reuters & ticker news. IndiaNivesh Research Nivesh Daily Currency

5 IndiaNivesh Securities Limited SEBI Registration No.INH & 602, Sukh Sagar, N. S. Patkar Marg, Girgaum Chowpatty, Mumbai Tel: (022) / Fax: (022) research@indianivesh.in Website: Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by IndiaNivesh Securities Limited (IndiaNivesh), for use by the recipient as information only and is not for circulation or public distribution. This document is not to be reproduced, copied, redistributed or published or made available to others, in whole or in part without prior permission from us. This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any currency pair. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or Completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. IndiaNivesh directors and its clients may have holdings in the currencies mentioned in the report. To unsubscribe please send a mail to mail@indianivesh.in