Currencies Daily Report Monday, June 27, 2016

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1 CONTENTS Market Overview Daily Analysis with fundamental and technical outlook US Dollar Indian Rupee Euro Sterling Pound Japanese Yen Economic Indicators Heena Imtiaz Naik Research Associate Currency (022) Extn :6104 Prathamesh Mallya Sr. Research Analyst Non-agro Commodity & Currency (022) Extn :6134 Harsh Rawat Technical Analyst(Currency) (022) Kaynat Chainwala Research Analyst (022) Extn :6136 Angel Broking Ltd. Registered Office: G-1, Ackruti Trade Centre, Rd. No. 7, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai Corporate Office: 6th Floor, Ackruti Star, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai Tel: (022) Currency: INE / MCX Currency SEBI Regn No: INE / Member ID: Disclaimer: The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. The company does not warrant its accuracy, completeness and correctness. The document is not, and should not be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published, in whole or in part, by any recipient hereof for any purpose without prior permission from Angel Broking Ltd. Your feedback is appreciated on currencies@angelbroking.com

2 MARKET OVERVIEW After reacting negatively on the surprise vote out of Britain from the European Union, emerging markets have now revived and are trading higher given the region's limited dependence on Europe. US DOLLAR INDEX (USD) Markets in the last week traded in a volatile manner as investors kept speculating whether or not Britain will leave EU. All the polls and initial vote count showed a major lead in remain camp. However, the tables turned on Friday when the Leave camp won by 51.9 percent. This prompted the traders to place fresh bets in safe-haven DX which saw a rise of 2 percent in the last week. However, investors believe that given the latest event that has caused jitters and uncertainty in the markets, the US Feds ambitions for two rate rises this year may be placed on hold. US Dollar Index made a weekly high of and closed at on Friday. Technical Chart USD MARKET HIGHLIGHTS (% change) as on June 24, 2016 INDICES LAST CHANGE WOW MOM YOY NIFTY SENSEX DJIA S&P FTSE KOSPI BOVESPA NIKKEI COMMODITY HIGHLIGHTS (% change) as on June 24, 2016 INDICES LAST CHANGE WOW MOM YOY NYMEX CRUDE - $/BBL COMEX GOLD - $/OZ COMEX SILVER - $/OZ LME COPPER (3M) -$/TONNE CURRENCY HIGHLIGHTS (% change) as on June 24, 2016 CURRENCY LAST CHANGE WOW MOM YOY USD USDINR EURUSD GBPUSD USDJPY INDIAN RUPEE (USDINR) The Indian Rupee depreciated by 0.5 percent in the last week. This was mainly due to strength seen in the US Dollar Index which saw a major incline given the recent Brexit event. Moreover, sustained selling of the American currency by importers and banks amid higher dollar in the overseas markets dragged the currency further lower. Technical Chart NIFTY 50 Domestic markets i.e. Sensex and Nifty ended on a negative note owing to the final showdown in seen in the EU Referendum where the Britains voted to leave the European Union. This prompted the traders to make risk-free bets. For the month of June 2016, FII inflows in equities totaled at Rs crores ($ million) as on 22nd June, Year to date basis, net capital outflows stood at Rs crores ($ million) as on 22nd June, 2016.

3 Technical Chart USDINR Technical Chart EURINR From the intra-day perspective, Rupee is likely to depreciate as demand for safe-haven DX will rise as Britains have voted to leave the European Union which has created uncertainty in the markets. USDINR Jun 16 (NSE/MSE) Up EURO (EURUSD) Panic selling griped the entire European markets which affected its currency after Britain voted to leave the European Union in the recent EU Referendum. The shared currency traded lower by 1.7 percent in the last week. Markets believe that the departure of Euro-zone s second-largest economy from the bloc would lead to distrust amongst the foreign investors with regards to Euro-zone s economy. Moreover, there will be further fragmentation of other member nations of EU. Furthermore, ECB president has assured the markets that to curb the uncertainty the central bank was ready to act with all instruments if necessary. He also said that "further monetary policy stimulus (was) in the pipeline. Euro currency made a weekly low of and closed at on Friday. Euro is expected to trade lower today owing to final result of EU Referendum that should major lead in the Leave camp. Markets will cautiously wait for the Draghi s speech that is scheduled to be held later in the day after he warned the markets that extreme volatility would prompt the central bank to intervene in the market. EURINR Jun 16 (NSE/MSE) Down STERLING POUND (GBPUSD) Sterling Pound had to face the brunt of the unexpected Brexit vote out. There was a major decline seen in the currency which traded lower by more than 6 percent in the last week. Furthermore, the British PM meant in his latest speech gave his resignation speech and has left the discussion of Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty on the shoulders of his next successor. Hence the coming few weeks would be very volatile for the markets. The economic impact of Britain s exit from the European Union will be quite devastating since Britain is the largest trading partner of the EU. Markets are also expecting a heavy devaluation of the GBP. Sterling Pound made a weekly low of and closed at on Friday.

4 Technical Chart GBP/INR Technical Chart JPY/INR Daily JPYINR=R Cndl, JPYINR=R, , , , , , , (-0.03%) (GMT) Price INR April 2016 May 2016 June Sterling Pound is expected to trade lower today as markets discount the final showdown of the EU Referendum where Britain was voted out of EU. Japanese Yen is expected to appreciate as markets play safe after the outcome of the EU Referendum. JPYINR Jun 16 (NSE/MSE) Sideways GBPINR Jun 16 (NSE/MSE) Down JAPANESE YEN (JPY/USD) Japanese Yen appreciated by 1.7 percent in the last week as recent global events has led to volatile trading in the markets which has boosted the demand for safe-haven Yen. Britain has voted to leave the European Union which has led to uncertainty markets. Markets are playing safe due to this. Furthermore, the BoJ governor admitted that achievement of 2 percent inflation in 2 years will be difficult however the commitment was useful in showing BoJ's determination to end deflation. He also confirmed that Japan is still halfway to hitting inflation target. Decline in potential growth rate is likely to exert downward pressure on economic activity via negative income effect. Moreover, the central bank won't hesitate to ease further if needed to hit 2 pct inflation however, it cannot present in advance when it will act. Yen made a weekly high of and closed at on Friday.

5 Economic indicators to be released on June 27, 2016 Indicator Country Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact M3 Money Supply y/y Euro 1:30pm - 4.8% 4.8% Medium ECB President Draghi Speaks Euro 11:00pm High