# Chapter 4.2. Technical Analysis: Fibonacci

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1 1 Chapter 4.2 Technical Analysis: Fibonacci 0

2 Contents TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: FIBONACCI Fibonacci analysis is the study of identifying potential support and resistance levels in the future based on past price trends and reversals. Fibonacci analysis is based on the mathematical discoveries of Leonardo Pisano also known as Fibonacci. He is credited with discovering a sequence of numbers that now bears his name: the Fibonacci sequence. The golden ratio and the other ratios that exist within the Fibonacci sequence represent the natural ebb and flow of life. They also apply to the natural ebb and flow of the forex market. In this section, you will learn how Fibonacci ratios can be applied to the forex market using the following analysis tools: The Fibonacci sequence is a series of numbers that progresses as follows, 0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55. To arrive at each subsequent number in the sequence, you simply sum the two preceding numbers in the sequence. For example, to find the number that follows 55 in the sequence, you add (the two preceding numbers in the sequence). The sum of is 89. This is the next number in the sequence. What intrigued Fibonacci about this sequence was not the numbers themselves but rather the relationships among the numbers, or the ratios created by various numbers in the sequence. Perhaps the most important ratio is also known as the golden ratio, or golden mean. This number can be found throughout nature (in sea shells, growth rings, etc.) and throughout the Fibonacci sequence. Each number in the Fibonacci sequence is times larger than the preceding number. For example, 89 is times larger than 55 (89 55 = 1.618). Fibonacci retracements Fibonacci projections Fibonacci fans 1

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7 Notice that the currency pair, based on the previous trend, has the potential to move up to the percent projection level in the near future. If it reaches this level, you could set the percent projection level as your next profit target level. FIBONACCI FANS Fibonacci levels provide diagonal levels of support and resistance as well as horizontal levels of support and resistance. The diagonal levels of support and resistance are called Fibonacci fans. 4. Draw three lines, each one beginning where the trend began and crossing through a separate point where the vertical line intersects one of the Fibonacci levels Now that you have your Fibonacci fans drawn, you can use them to project potential support and resistance levels that you can use in your forex trading. You can see a Fibonacci fan on the daily GBP/USD chart below. Each of the illustrated levels was calculated based on the trend highlighted by the red arrow. You could have used the rays from the fan to help you determine when to enter and exit your trades as the currency pair began to turn around and move lower. Fibonacci fans are based on three Fibonacci retracement levels 61.8 percent, 50 percent and 38.2 percent. To construct a Fibonacci fan, you have to do the following: 1. Identify a trend 2. Identify the three horizontal Fibonacci levels (61.8 percent, 50 percent and 38.2 percent) as they relate to that trend 3. Draw a vertical line that crosses through these levels at the point where the trend ended 6

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9 Notice how the price of the currency pair bounced off of the middle ray of the Fibonacci fan for a while in early August before it broke through that level and began bouncing off of the bottom ray of the fan for a few days. It is also interesting to see that the levels created by the Fibonacci fan continue to be a factor far into the future. You can see how the GBP/USD bounced down after hitting the bottom ray of the fan four months later in November. 8

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11 Disclaimer The curriculum is produced for the purposes of general education. Comments of persons interviewed are given in their respective personal capacities and do not necessarily represent the views of SCMPL and were extracted with the view of only providing general information. The information and commentaries are not meant to be endorsements or offerings of any investment product. The curriculum was produced without regard to the individual financial circumstances, needs or objectives of any viewer. The investment products discussed in the curriculum may not be suitable for all persons. The appropriateness of any particular investment product or strategy whether opined on or referred to in these videos will depend on a person's individual circumstances and objectives and should be independently evaluated and confirmed by each person, and, if appropriate, with his professional advisers independently before adoption or implementation. No investment decision should be made in reliance of any such comments. Information provided, including on technical aspects and functions of SCMPL's platforms through these videos may not be complete. Risk warning: All investments involve risks. Leveraged investments carry a correspondingly higher degree of risk and may result in magnified losses. Company registration no: M. 10

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