Global Truck Study Perspectives towards 2030

Transcription

1 Global Truck Study Perspectives towards 2030 Press Workshop VDA June 26, 2014 A.T. Kearney & VDA Team

2 Global truck industry is on the cusp of major change Overview Global Truck Study low Degree of change high 1. Market 2. Technology 3. Business model 4. Profitability 5. Industry structure Source: A.T. Kearney A.T. Kearney 10/46980d/55WbY4QkllxnRlm6Q7 2

3 Market will grow by nearly 5% per year by 2020 Market Global HD+MD truck sales ('000 units) Global 1 2, % 5.1% 3,657 1, % 2,328 1,703 North America % 4.1% 3.5% South America % 3.1% 2.9% Western Europe % % 4.6% 254 See Africa chapter for details East/ Central Europe India % 8.7% 11.0% 7.7% 15.8% 7.6% China 1 4.0% 1,375 1, % % Japan 2.3% % % 41 ASEAN 4.7% 4.4% 5.5% MD HD x x x CAGR 1. See China and India chapter for our perspective Source: IHS Automotive, LMC Automotive, A.T. Kearney A.T. Kearney 10/46980d/55WbY4QkllxnRlm6Q7 3

4 Emerging example: China Triad example: Germany Two worlds of innovation driven by TCO structures expected Average TCO in Triad and Emerging countries Technology Total TCO in p.a.: 52k MD (rigid distribution vehicle) HD (long-haul truck tractor) Total TCO in p.a.: 70k 39% Total TCO in p.a.: 22k 5% 2% 52% 13% 42% 50% 43% 39% 10% 2% 6% 5% 2% 23% 11% 6% 3% 9% 9% 4% 71% 31% Total TCO in p.a.: 47k Source: A.T. Kearney Driver Depreciation Repair and Maintenance - tire Repair and Maintenance - non-tire Fuel = TCO p.a. A.T. Kearney 10/46980d/55WbY4QkllxnRlm6Q7 4

5 Existing broad range of business models is expected to converge Perspective on future business models Currently existing business elements Business model elements Regional set-up Scale Internal production valueadded Product-market positioning Industry segment coverage Parameter value Local International Global Low Regional Global Regional & global Low Medium High Premium Value Pure truck Other segments Future business model: Smart global Business model elements Regional set-up Scale Internal production value-added Product-market positioning Industry segment coverage Parameter value Global Regional & global; smart market selection Strictly focused on competitive advantages Strong core positioning, smartly adapted to local requirements; multi brand strategy Off-highway coverage Business model : parameter value not part of smart global : parameter value part of smart global Source: A.T. Kearney analysis A.T. Kearney 10/46980d/55WbY4QkllxnRlm6Q7 5

6 Profit pools of European OEMs are attractive Profitability Sales ,588 Revenues Ashok Leyland 2 Beiqi Foton Daimler -Trucks Dongfeng Commercial Vehicles Japan Europe USA India China Russia Hino Iveco Kamaz - Trucks MAN - Commercial Vehicles Navistar 2 Scania Tata Motors - Tata Brand 3 Paccar 2 Sinotruk 2 Volvo - Trucks 1. Return on sales in % based on operating profit before tax 2. Return on sales in % based on net profit before tax 3. Including Tata light vehicles Note: Daimler/Volvo excluding buses and financial services; MAN/Scania including buses and financial services Source: Annual reports, A.T. Kearney analysis A.T. Kearney 10/46980d/55WbY4QkllxnRlm6Q7 6

7 Higher However, there are many ways to profit heaven Profitability Profitability Rollercoaster Scania Profit heaven 10 8 Paccar Tata Motors - Tata brand Volvo - Trucks Vicious cycle Kamaz Navistar Daimler - Trucks Higher MAN - CV Sinotruk Ashok Leyland Iveco Dongfeng - CV Hino Beiqi Foton Safe profit trap Profit stability average value of return on sales (%RoS) statistical variance on return on sales (%RoS) 3. Tata brand including light vehicles Note: Daimler/Volvo excluding buses and financial services; MAN/Scania including buses and financial services A.T. Kearney 10/46980d/55WbY4QkllxnRlm6Q7 7

8 Currently, this is reflected by heterogeneous market structures Market share of truck OEMs across top 10 markets (Sales volume in k units, market share in %) DAIMLER DONGFENG VOLVO VOLKSWAGEN 15 MD + HD trucks >6t GVW Source: IHS Automotive, A.T. Kearney 1,047 22% 16% 15% 9% 5% 17% 20 China 25 FAW CNHTC (Sinotruk) PACCAR BAIC (Foton) TATA WEICHAI POWER (Shaanxi) TOYOTA (Hino) FORD % 10% 19% 14% 16% 50 North America % 27% 11% 7% 9% 60 South America NAVISTAR ISUZU CNH INDUSTRIAL (Iveco) JAC % 21% 27% 14% 11% % 20% 7% Western India Europe ASHOK LEYLAND KAMAZ EICHER SAIC % 6% 6% 28% 18% % 5% 26% 90 Industry structure % 13% 22% 17% 15% 21% 10% 35% 9% 15% 11% 7% 10% 31% 25% 15% ASEAN Japan RoW Russia Central/ HYUNDAI Eastern Europe Others 100 A.T. Kearney 10/46980d/55WbY4QkllxnRlm6Q7 8

9 By 2030 we expect a more homogeneous picture Today Future Industry structure Triad Non-Triad Global Groups Regional Giants Daimler Volvo VW 1 Paccar Toyota (Hino) Dongfeng FAW CNHTC (Sinotruk) BAIC (Foton) Tata Shaanxi (Weichai P.) Niche Players Ford Navistar Isuzu CNH Industrial (Iveco) JAC Ashok Leyland Kamaz Eicher SAIC Hyundai 2030 Truck Industry Structure 6-8 Global Groups incl. 2-4 Chinese/Indian/Korean players Top players with >400,000 units; >250,000 units needed to be globally competitive Significantly reduced number of niche and regional players; few new specialists for specific product segments Triad still dominated by Triad OEMs, China and India by local OEMs; heterogeneous OEM landscape in all other countries Few remaining joint ventures All major players with significant off-highway business 1. Including MAN and Scania Source: IHS Automotive, A.T. Kearney A.T. Kearney 10/46980d/55WbY4QkllxnRlm6Q7 9