Growth opportunities of Airlines in the CIS Conference: Aircraft Finance and Lease Russia & CIS. 15 March, Moscow

Transcription

1 Growth opportunities of Airlines in the CIS Conference: Aircraft Finance and Lease Russia & CIS 15 March, Moscow

2 Contents 1.Lufthansa Consulting 2.Factors underpinning growth 3.Economy 4.Traffic 5.Competition/ yields 6.Investment and Capital 7.Conclusion -2-

3 Your advantage our internal and external experts network Our Client Lufthansa Airline Academic Network Lufthansa Technik Partnerships Lufthansa Cargo Lufthansa Systems Lufthansa Consulting Institutions Agencies -3-

4 Our clients are distributed all over the world Europe Russia/CIS Berlin-Brandenburg International Government of Burkina Faso Government of the Republic Congo Government of Abu Dhabi Dubai Cargo Village Government of Belize Government of Uruguay Americas Africa Middle East Asia/Pacific -4-

5 Growth opportunities are connected to the economy, demographics, level of regulation and access to capital Fundamentals for growth Growth? Air Transport Volume & Growth Economic Development Demographic GDP & growth Innovation Trade (export/ import) Volatility (xrate, fuel price ) Networks Competition/ deregulation Population Employment Incomes Migration Customer choice Open skies Fares Internal/ external mkts Bilateral Alternative modes Yields & affordability Assets Innovation Investment & capital Transparency Risk Business ownership Cape Town Convention Availability of capital Transaction volume Cost of capital Risk -5-

6 Regional macro market factors drive growth: urbanisation, deregulation, new LCC s and rising middle class Current traffic hotspots Source: Airbus Global Market Forecast -6-

7 Deregulation in Europe has facilitated growth via the entrance of LCC s with volume increasing faster than GDP Revenue and market growth during the economic cycle (Europe) Industry revenue (Change from 2001 until 2008) Low cost market growth (short haul) 50% 500% LCC short haul capacity share 400% 300% 200% Growth is much higher than GDP performance Volume decoupled via lower yields Net market value grows in line with GDP 1, 2. 44% LCC short haul revenue share 40% 34% 35% 32% 30% 25% 23% 491% 20% 20% 17% 13% 9% 10% 100% 6% 6% 0% 0% Network Low-cost Notes: 1. Network carriers short haul fleets have not increased dramatically during the last decade 2. Ryanair and Easyjet Niki, Germanwings, Vueling, Wizz now have a combined narrow body fleet of ~550 aircraft : seats on domestic & intra-european flights (OAG Sep 2010). Revenue share extrapolated (i.e. no change to yield mix) Source: AEA, Barclays Capital, OAG, Lufthansa Consulting -7-

8 Passenger demand closely tracks GDP (correlation factor ~1:1): future demand is expected to closely follow GDP trends Correlation between GDP Growth and Air Travel Volume (RPK) GDP Development RPK Growth (yoy) GDP RPK Source: Liberum Capital research -8-

9 Passenger volumes have increased since 2000 while costs have increased faster than revenue volatility to continue Changes to passenger volume, RASM and CASM since 2000 Scale indexed to the year Economic peak Fuel price spike SARS 11 Sep IATA predicts positive returns, BUT: Fuel price development vs. a sustainable recovery? Higher capital costs impact the cost of capital Interest rates are increasing Inflation is on the rise 80 CASM RASM Passenger volume Note: CASM = Cost per available seat mile, RASM = Revenue per available seat mile Source: AEA, Lufthansa Consulting -9-

10 Global Airlines have returned to profitability BUT, the future prognosis is unclear with fuel pushing down potential returns Global commercial airline profitability Annual profit/ loss ($bn) EBIT Margin Future profitability The current cycle looks very different to the last cycle 8% 20 6% Current Cycle Forecast near term profitability impacted by fuel price volatility Cycle 8% 4% 2% 15 6% 0% -2% 10 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 4% -4% 5 2% 0 0% E 2011E 2012E -5-2% -10-4% -15-6% -20-8% Airline (net profit/ loss) EBIT Margin Source: IATA, AAPA, Lufthansa Consulting

11 Fuel price development is volatile with high prices likely for the foreseeable future airline planners must adapt Fuel price development Historical fuel price development (Feb 2011) Region/ market Price Share cts/gal Forecast: Brent Forward Curve 110 Price Index Index value vs. Yr 2000 vs. 7 days vs. 1 Month vs. 1 Year Feb Jet Fuel Price 100% % 13.5% 50.4% Asia & Oceania 22% % 15.0% 48.5% Europe & CIS 28% % 14.3% 52.3% Middle East & Africa 7% % 14.7% 51.1% North America 39% % 12.0% 50.1% Latin & Central America 4% % 11.7% 49.3% 2 months ago 90 4 months ago Dec10 H1 H H1 H H1 H2 H Source: IATA; Platts, SG Cross Asset Research

12 Emerging markets are driving growth (and opportunity) Monthly ASK development (yoy) Traffic % Traffic + 5.4% Traffic + 4.9% Note: * 54 emerging economies Source: Airbus Global Forecast

13 The BRIC s are all growing: Russia has showed a consistent development since 2009 YOY RPK Growth: BRIC s Source: AAI, FAVT, CAAC, Company data, Morgan Stanley

14 Europe & Asia Pacific are the largest external markets, Africa & Latin America have shown rapid growth and volatility 3 Historical true O&D market sizes and development (to/from and within Russia) Domestic Russia ~49% ~23% +8% +5% <2% North -1% America +9% Europe +9% +9% ~2% Middle East ~1% +13% ~22% Asia +6% Pacific +9% Africa 2% Latin America <1% -15% -2% +60% +27% Key Total air pax Aug 09 Jul 2010 Russia ~ 48Mil Note: CAGR = Compound annual growth rate, O&D = origin and destination Source: Lufthansa Consulting, IATA AirportIS Market share Growth Aug 2009-Jul2010 CAGR Aug 2006 Jul

15 Internationally, Europe provides nearly half of the capacity to/from Russia (Germany is the largest market by a factor of 2) Share of seats from Russia by region (2010) Top 20 countries served from Russia, 2010 Germany Americas Africa 3% 0,5% 11% Ukraine Egypt Turkey Uzbekistan Armenia Tajikistan Italy Azerbaijan France UK China Czech Republic Austria Kazakhstan Israel UAE Thailand USA Spain Asia 15% M.East Europe 44% CIS 27% Total: ~ 373,000 seats Thousands seats, average summer week, 2010 Source: OAG week 19, year 2010, all airlines, directional

16 Future global growth is led by Asia, the CIS region falls just below the Global average Forecast changes to passenger volume (RPK) RPK (billions) CAGR ( ) 5,000 8% Average CAGR (Global) = 4.8% 6.8% 4, % 6% 5.5% 5.8% 4.7% 3,000 4% 4.1% 2, % 2% 1, % Asia Pacific Europe 2009 North America 2020 Middle East CAGR Latin America Africa CIS Average CAGR Source: Airbus Global Market Forecast

17 Growth predictions suggest opportunities for CIS operators into Eastern Europe, Asia & Africa: new markets will emerge Hotspots for future growth Note/ Key: CAGR range < 2.5% < % < % < % > 7.0% Source: Airbus Global Market Forecast

18 Russia leads CIS economic activity while the prime growth areas inc. Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Ukraine & Azerbaijan CIS Countries - GDP Growth ( ) GDP (US$bn) Real GDP in 2005 billions USD CAGR1 in % for , % 1,050 Comments High growth rates are forecast for the whole CIS: Average CAGR = 4.2 % 1,000 Russian represents 76 % of total GDP in the CIS Russia GDP growth = 3.8 % 850 Top growth markets are: 800 Turkmenistan, % GDP % GDP % Uzbekistan, 3,6% 7.2% 3.7% 4.9% 0 Ukraine & 5.7% 2.3% 3.4% Azerbaijan Note: 1CAGR = Compound annual growth rate Source: LCG analysis, Global Insight

19 Measuring flights per capital shows Russia has along way to develop and appears de-coupled to other markets (e.g. Brazil) Development index: number of flights vs GDP per capita Number of flights per capita 3.5 Brazil = De-regulated market % more flights/ capita vs Russian Federation 33% less GDP/ capita vs Russia ~50-100% impact of deregulation? 2.5 Canada Tajikistan Kyrgystan Uzbekistan India 2.0 France Germany Turkmenistan China Ukraine 1.5 United States UK 1.0? Brazil 0.5 Russian Federation Kazakhstan ,000 Source: IATA, CIA Factbook 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 GDP per capita (USD)

20 Relatively high yields are shown for Russia this is normal due to less competition and more regulation Relative yields vs distance flown (km) Revenue per RPK (US cents) 0.4 Russia loses its advantage on short routes compared to France and Germany 0.3 Russia is the top performer above 800km ,000 Russia 2,000 France 3,000 Germany 4,000 UK Distance flown (km) Source: IATA, Airport IS, 12 month period until end June

21 Airlines have offered poor returns: the macro economy suggests challenges & increased competition for investment Return on invested capital vs. The cost of capital Returns under pressure Cost of capital increasing 12% 10% 8% The crises diverged capital costs and returns 6% Deterioration of shareholder value 4% 2% 0% WACC ROIC Source: IATA

22 The CIS has a relatively large component of old aircraft implying relatively high investment requirements for renewal Proportion of active fleets >20 years old 80% >20 years >30 years >40 years 60% 40% 20% 0% Source: Lufthansa Consulting research, ACAS

23 Adding near-term backlogs to the data shows that the CIS is a region of relative underinvestment & risk of under capacity Fleet growth (by backlog) (%new capacity by operator region) Est (Cum. Seat backlog / Current Seats Available)*100 40% 35% -Risk: Over capacity Economic recession (stationary assets) Residuals Indian S.Cont M. East China 30% Australasia 25% Risk: E. Africa S.E.Asia Future CAPEX volume Under capacity Fuel cost/ volatility/ emissions Maintenance costs E. Europe 20% C. America W. Europe S. America 15% S. Europe N. Africa F.East 10% Near. East 5% W. Africa CIS N. America C. Caribbean S. Africa 0% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Percentage fleet >20 years age Source: Lufthansa Consulting research, ACAS

24 Extrapolating the order backlog & growth implies additional funds of ~$35bn CAPEX added to the present order book Estimated capacity (ASK) development and investment 280,000 To what extent can the CAPEX amount be reduced by acquiring second hand equipment? What happens if the market is deregulated? What happens if retirements are accelerated? 210,000 Est. CAPEX for future capacity not included in the current backlog = ~$35bn Future capacity required (based on current growth forecast 140,000 70, Note: Capacity with actual fleet Ordered fleet Missing capacity 2019 ASK projection extrapolated according to current growth projections for the region Fleet retirement estimated with a replacement of 40% assets over ten years (Boeing assumes a 36% World average) CAPEX estimate based on estimated values for new commercial passenger aircraft & forecast requirement for new seat capacity Source: Lufthansa Consulting Research, Aircraft Value News, ACAS, Airbus forecast, Boeing, IATA

25 The CIS shows clear growth opportunities as one of the most interesting global regions but more potential is possible Strengths Weaknesses Strong regional GDP performance Perceived lack of transparency Airlines can find relatively strong yields Risks (exchange rate, fuel price, volatility) Strong cash flow potentials Margins Airline/ investor access to cheap credit, High cost of capital = high discount rates Lack of competition implies less risk (airline segment) Opportunities De-regulation Investment markups/ cost of debt Barriers for foreign businesses to fully enter CIS markets Threats Future CAPEX investment requirements Leverage impact on growth potentials $35bn (existing backlog) plus ~ $35bn growth Spin-off opportunities for economic development/ support of development Increased inflation or interest rates pose vulnerabilities for meeting future investments Create an environment for growth offer commerce & industry the tools to develop Current buyers market for assets Higher entry barriers to new technology Potential governmental focus on protectionism Source: Lufthansa Consulting

26 Airlines in the CIS have growth opportunities but hurdles to future development Conclusions The economic growth of the CIS will drive air travel and growth opportunities Growth in Eastern Europe, Asia & Africa offer opportunities for expansion A key opportunity is linked to the level of deregulation Similar to other regions, LCCs will increasingly dominate short haul if a deregulated regional market model is followed (growth will be slower without) The larger network airlines will focus on long-haul markets (linked to alliances) and the new aforementioned international market opportunities Other airlines will focus on niche markets Structural instability is expected in the near term in line with fuel price volatility and the need for investment in the region Companies will disappear, new more efficient operators will emerge Business plans must cater for high fuel price and volatility (risk) CIS Airlines will struggle to meet all their investment needs without a strong economy and access to cheap capital Lufthansa Consulting estimates ~$ billion investment to be required until

27 Where next? the structure & size of future growth is pending how the airline market is allowed to compete in the future Potential airline market structure and growth Status quo moderate growth CIS Today? No, little change to regulation: slower market growth, higher yields Development of status quo Open market stimulation of higher growth Experimentation New market entrants lower costs lower prices Opportunistic growth Expansion more new entrants Expansion due to attraction of lower yields Failures, M&As? New business models Development New entrants compete on diversified basis Disappearance of older models or reinvention Less differentiation Higher yields, less growth (volume) Less capacity required More differentiation Lower yields, more volume growth Increased amount of capacity required Investment requirements increases Note: The above are two potential paths for development An open air transport market policy can facilitate more regional growth: other options can be investigated e.g. the rollout of open competition on a regional basis to support the development of key regions/ industries