Finnair Investor Presentation. November 2012

Transcription

1 Finnair Investor Presentation November

2 Content Company highlights Strategy implementation yielding results Positive trend in business performance strengthens market position Outlook Fleet and investments Dedicated and experienced management team Appendices 2

3 Company highlights European network airline connecting Asia and Europe, listed in the Nasdaq OMX Nordic Finnair has an attractive, geographic niche between Northern Asia and Northern Europe with sustainable competitive advantage: Finnair is the 3rd largest carrier in its Asian destinations, estimated market share of 5.9%.* Market size of 20 million transfer passengers annually, globally one of the fastest growing traffic areas. Traffic between Europe and China forecasted to triple during the next 30 years. Cost advantage in long haul traffic due to short distance to Asia: Higher aircraft and crew utilisation compared to peers Helsinki airport selected one of the best transfer airports in the world, minimum connection time of 35 min The small size of domestic market limits the competition, Finnair benefits from it s well established position and network coverage with over 60% market share Stable financial position: M in cash reserves (approximately 18% of annual turnover), net cash flow positive at 136,8 M ytd. 3 *Based on weekly frequencies.

4 Strategy implementation yielding results 4

5 Our vision Double our revenue between Europe and Asia by 2020 Become the most desired option in travel between Europe and Asia Become number one airline and grow in the Nordic countries 5

6 Finnair offers the fastest connections between over 50 European destinations 11 Asian mega-cities Tokyo Nagoya Osaka Beijing Chonqing Shanghai Hongkong Soul Bangkok Singapore Delhi 6

7 Sustainable competitive advantage through geographical location Faster connections with more comfort in travelling Helsinki-Vantaa hub with minimum connection time of 35 minutes One long and one short leg instead of two 6-7 hour legs 24h rotation to Asian destinations and back Operating cost advantages in many areas It's faster via Helsinki - time saved vs. other European hubs Via Vienna Via Munich Via London Via Istanbul Average time saved via Helsinki Beijing Europe* 22.1% 33.1% 19.1% 16.2% 22.6% Shanghai Europe* 26.6% 13.3% 14.5% 11.6% 16.5% Tokyo Europe* 34.4% 24.3% 32.3% 31.7% 30.7% Osaka Europe* 29.4% 25.4% 27.1% 20.3% 25.6% *Finnair operated European non-hub cities. 7

8 Steady growth in Asian traffic 160% 140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 2005 Q1 Finnair is growing faster than the market in terms of seat capacity 2005 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q3 Million passengers 1,6 1,4 1,2 1,0 0,8 0,6 0,4 0,2 0,0 Number of passengers growing steadily AY seat growth Market seat growth 8

9 Asian traffic revenues 51% of total passenger revenue target to double Asian revenue by 2020* Asian traffic revenue annual growth 20% on average Finnair passenger revenues by traffic area, %, 2008 Jan-Sep % 90% 80% 32% 33% 40% 44% 45% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% % Leisure Atlantic Domestic Europe Asia 9 *From 2010 level.

10 Finnair has strong presence in Asian key economies, weekly frequencies* China Japan Finnair Lufthansa Air France KLM IAG Finnair Lufthansa Air France KLM Singapore 12 Republic of Korea Finnair Lufthansa Air France KLM Finnair Lufthansa Air France KLM *Finnair is the 3rd largest carrier in its destinations, estimated market share of 5.9%. Market size of 20 million transfer passengers annually, globally one of the fastest growing traffic areas. Traffic between Europe and China forecasted to triple during the next 30 years. 10

11 Structural change advancing from business segments to core business focus and supporting the efficient execution of business strategy and operations Action taken and/or on-going: 1 Strategy & Business development Business strategy definition Allocation of resources Network design and markets Fleet structure and size Product & customer experience Brand 2 Group support functions Realization of synergies Shared Service Financial & business services Procurement IT 3 Airline feeder traffic and support services Outsourced to service partners for: Cost efficiency Flexibility Core business growth support Regional & feeder traffic Catering Engine & component maintenance Ground handling 11

12 140 million savings program well on track new target for 2012 cumulative savings 90 million (up 10 million from original target), leaving 50 million for 2013 Target 140 million Savings progress to target 8% 8% 3% 25% maintenance 26% 74% staff 43% 57% 9% other 102% lease 105% 10% 24% sales 109% 14% catering 148% maintenance other sales ground handling staff lease catering fuel ground handling 38% 62% fuel 155% 0% 100% 12

13 Achievements so far Fleet optimisation in European traffic: 11.5 million savings Discontinuation of four A320 series aircraft lease agreements and subleasing five E170 aircraft Fleet leasing contracts renegotiated and renewed Improved route planning and aircraft utilisation Low performing routes discontinued, average aircraft utilisation up by over an hour a day to 9 hours Partnerships for improved cost efficiency and flexibility Support functions streamlined Savings through centralized procurement Cost savings so far 16 million 13

14 New 60 million savings programme launched New cost savings programme published with the aim of achieving a permanent reduction in costs of a further 60 million by the end of 2014 Despite the good advancement of the structural change and cost reduction programme launched in 2011, Finnair has not progressed as planned in all its savings categories New savings are aim at reaching Finnair s long-term target of 6% EBIT profit margin In the face of high fuel prices, intensifying competition and significant fleet investments in the coming years, the company must achieve a marked improvement in profitability. The new programme complements the existing 140 million structural change and cost reduction programme launched in

15 Positive trend in business performance strengthens market position 15

16 Strong Q3 performance All time high Q3 Turnover and Operational EBIT Turnover million (+7.1%), EBIT 48.9 million (+77.2%) Stable financial position Net cash flow from operations 44,5 million in July-September million short-term cash and cash equivalents (approx. 18% of annual turnover) Notable improvements in traffic performance: Load factor +3.9% -p RASK +7.8% Top performance in punctuality, over 90% of flights arrived on time 16

17 Turnover growth continued while operational EBIT improved by 77.2% Quarterly turnover, million Quarterly Operational EBIT, million 700 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q Operational result (EBIT) = EBIT excluding non-recurring items, capital gains and changes in the fair value of derivatives and in the value of foreign currency denominated fleet maintenance reserves 17

18 Unit revenue improvement ahead of peers* Unit revenue per available seat kilometre (RASK) up by 7.8% in Q3 as both passenger load factor (PLF, +3.9%-p) and yield per revenue passenger kilometre (RPK yield, +2.3%) improved y-o-y Q3 RASK +7.8% PLF +3.9%-p RPK yield +2.3% * Other European legacy carriers. 18

19 Strong traffic performance in Q Asian share 52.3% of the total capacity North America ASK 1,3 % RPK 1,9 % PLF 0,5 %-p Traffic revenue* 8,1 % Leisure traffic ASK 23,6 % RPK 29,9 % PLF 4,5 %-p Traffic revenue* 24,2 % Europe ASK -0,5 % RPK 9,2 % PLF 6,9 %-p Traffic revenue* 12,2 % Domestic ASK -9,5 % RPK 2,6 % PLF 7,4 %-p Traffic revenue* -9,4 % Asia ASK 4,3 % RPK 6,4 % PLF 1,6 %-p Traffic revenue* 11,4 % Total traffic ASK 3,4 % RPK 8,6 % PLF 3,9 %-p Traffic revenue* 11,0 % Passenger revenue split 5 % 7 % 5 % 51 % 32 % Asia Europe Domestic North Atlatic Charter Cargo ATK -41,7 % RTK -26,3 % OLF 17,0 %-p Traffic revenue -30,3 % * passenger revenue 19

20 Airline business: RASK & CASK development Q Unit revenue per available seat kilometre (RASK) up by 7.8% Unit cost per available seat kilometre excluding fuel (CASK, excl. fuel) down by 1.1% Change, y-o-y, % -15% -11% -7% -3% 1% 5% 9% 13% 17% 21% 25% RASK, unit revenue CASK, unit cost 7,8 % 6,1 % CASK, excl. Fuel Fuel cost Personnel -1,1 % -1,4 % 24,6 % Depreciation & leasing -9,6 % Traffic charges 9,5 % Maintenance 3,4 % Ground handling Catering -10,6 % -6,4 % Other costs 1,5 % 20

21 Operational EBIT build-up in Q M 140,0 120,0 100,0 80,0 12,7 11,0 8,6 5,8-2,4-4,6-6,1-6,2-11,4 60,0 40,0 49,2-35,3 20,0 0,0 27,6 48,9 21

22 Operational EBIT build-up Jan Sep 2012 M 250,0 200,0 150,0 22,7 20,6 11,5 11,1 11,0-1,7-18,1-19,3-21,1 100,0-96,3 50,0 147,7 0,0-29,3 38,6-50,0 22

23 Fuel costs continued to climb in Q M 2500 Operational costs Fuel cost % y-o-y* The share of fuel costs 30% , ,2 +3.3% 603, ,2 586,1 M ,8 621, Q1 Q2 Q3 Q % 146,4 179,6 144,3 131,7 157,9 132,8 167, Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 * Hedging taken into account. 23

24 Fuel and personnel biggest cost items in operational costs in Q3 2012, total of million 2,8 % 2,7 % 3,1 % 4,6 % 5,4 % 29,8 % Total Fuel Change, y-o-y, % 3,3 % 24,5 % 6,1 % Personnel Ground handling and catering -11,5 % 22,6 % Traffic charges 11,0 % 8,9 % Other costs -6,3 % Maintenance 14,2 % 10,2 % 16,2 % Depreciation 6,5 % 10,3 % Fuel Personnel Ground handling and catering Traffic charges Other costs Maintenance Depreciation Other rental payments Sales and marketing Tour operations Aircraft leasing Other rental payments -23,8 % Sales and marketing -13,4 % Tour operations -39,6 % Aircraft leasing -7,4 % -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 24

25 Key figures Key Figures Jul-Sep 2012 Jul-Sep 2011 Change % Jan-Sep 2012 Jan-Sep 2011 Change % Jan-Dec 2011 Turnover and result Turnover EUR million 650,3 607,2 7,1 1836,5 1680,3 9, ,7 Operational result, EBIT EUR million 48,9 27,6 77,2 38,6-29,3 > 200 % -60,9 Operational result, % turnover % 7,5 4,5 3,0 %-p 2,1-1,8 3,9 %-p -2,7 Operating result, EBIT EUR million 71,1 10,6 > 200 % 32,8-57,7 156,8-87,8 EBITDAR EUR million 97,8 75,8 29,0 186,9 113,2 65,1 139,6 Result before taxes EUR million 67,3 3,1 > 200 % 15,6-73,3 121,3-111,5 Net result EUR million 50,8 1,9 > 200 % 10,6-54,9 119,3-87,5 Balance sheet and cash flow Equity ratio % 33,3 33,1 0,2 %-p 32,6 Gearing % 25,9 41,9-16,0 %- p Adjusted gearing % 90,1 101,4-11,3 %- p 43,3 108,4 Capital expenditure, CAPEX EUR million 7, ,9 17,7 182,8-90,3 203,9 Return on capital employed, ROCE 12 months rolling % 1,0-3,4 4,4 %-p -5,2 Return on equity, ROE, 12 months rolling % -1,1-7,5 6,4 %-p -10,9 Net cash flow from operating activities EUR million 44,5-1,2 > 200 % 136,8 59,2 131,1 50,8 Share Share price at end of quarter EUR 2,07 2,94-29,6 2,07 2,94-29,6 2,30 Earnings per share EUR 0,43 0,00-0,08-0,48 116,7-0,75 Operational result (EBIT) = EBIT excluding non-recurring items, capital gains and changes in the fair value of derivatives and in the value of foreign currency denominated fleet maintenance reserves 25

26 Outlook for 2012 Guidance on 26 October 2012: Finnair estimates that the operational result for the second half of the year, which is stronger than the first half of the year due to seasonal variations, will reflect improved profitability compared to the first half of the year, leading to a profitable operational result for the full year The outlook for the world economy is still uncertain, and Finnair will adjust its passenger traffic capacity with its current structure according to demand. Finnair estimates that this capacity will increase on last year but less than 5 per cent. The growth will mainly come from Asian traffic, where Finnair increased capacity in May by opening a new flight route to Chongqing, China. Finnair s fuel costs are still estimated to be significantly higher in 2012 compared to the previous year due to increased capacity and high fuel prices. Cost reductions of approximately 90 million euros out of the structural change and cost reduction program s total target of 140 million euros are expected to be achieved by the end of Finnair estimates that unit cost (CASK) excluding fuel will decrease year-on-year in the second half of the year. 26

27 Fleet and investments 27

28 Distinct production platforms LONG HAUL Asia & North America SHORT HAUL Feeder traffic, European major routes JV and/or tactical partnerships possible Feeder traffic, European niche routes Embraer contract flying / * REGIONAL TRAFFIC Domestic and some Nordic routes ATR contract flying / * * Finnair owns 40% of Flybe Nordic. 28

29 Current fleet: Finnair operates 57 aircraft and, in addition, owns 15 aircraft operated by other parties Fleet operated by Seats # Own Leased Average Change Ordered Add. Finnair on Sep 30, 2012 (operational (financial age from Dec options leasing) leasing) 31, 2011 European traffic Airbus A Airbus A Airbus A Embraer 170* Embraer Long-haul traffic Airbus A /271/ Airbus A / Airbus A350 na Leisure traffic Boeing B Total Fleet owned by Finnair Seats # Own Leased Average Change Ordered Add. but operated by other (operational (financial age from Dec options airlines on Sep 30, 2012** leasing) leasing) 31, 2011 ATR Embraer Total * E170 aircraft operated by Finnair but leased to Honeywell. ** All ATR aircraft and two E170 aircraft are leased to Flybe Nordic and two E170 aircraft are leased to companies outside the group. 29

30 Fleet renewal is key for successful strategy implementation reduced unit costs and improved fuel efficiency 1)First phase in In Long haul, MD11 fleet replaced with Airbus 330/340 1)Second phase in 2012 Reducing 9 aircraft from European fleet Embraer traffic transferred to Flybe 1)Third phase in Boeing 757 fleet to be replaced with Airbus A321 ER s Harmonized Airbus fleet brings asset and crew utilization benefits 1)Fourth phase: Airbus 350 XWB from H2 2015, More capacity and lower seat cost with next generation aircraft: Up to 18% more capacity: from 270 seats to seats Estimated seat cost -30% compared to Airbus 340 Improved revenue position with superior product 11 orders and 8 options 30

31 Strong financing position 120 % Strong balance sheet 700 M Good cash position Q3/ YTD 2012 Equity ratio Gearing Adjusted gearing Net cash flow from operations Investment, gross Short term cash and cash equivalents in balance sheet 31

32 Dedicated and experienced management team 32

33 Executive Board On average, over 13 years of experience from aviation industry Mika Vehviläinen, b. 1961, M.Sc. (Econ.), Finnair Plc's President and CEO, in Finnair's service since Vehviläinen previously worked for Nokia, ultimately as Chief Operating Officer of Nokia Siemens Networks. Erno Hildén, b. 1971, M.Sc. (Econ.), CFO, Member of the Executive Board, in Finnair's service since Hilden's previous posts include VP for Finnair Leisure Flights business unit and various business development posts in Finnair corporate management. Prior to his present position he was Finnair Plc's COO. Ville Iho, b. 1969, M.Sc. (Technology), COO, Member of the Executive Board, in Finnair's service since Iho previously held various posts in Finnair Plc's Scheduled Traffic. Prior to his present position he was Finnair Plc's SVP Resources Management. Gregory Kaldahl, b. 1957, B.Ss. (Education), SVP Resources Management, Member of the Executive Board, in Finnair's service since Kaldahl previously worked for several airlines. His latest position was VP, Resource Planning for United Airlines. Anssi Komulainen, b. 1964, BA, SVP Customer Service, Member of the Executive Board, in Finnair's service and since Komulainen has worked in various management posts in the restaurant sector as well as in Finnair Catering's service, ultimately as its Managing Director and SVP Catering. His latest position was SVP, Human Resources. 33

34 Executive Board On average, over 13 years of experience from aviation industry Mika Perho, b. 1959, BA, SVP Commercial Division, Member of the Executive Board, in Finnair's service since Perho has held management posts in Finnair sales and marketing. Sami Sarelius, b. 1971, LLM, SVP and General Counsel, Member of the Executive Board, in Finnair's service since Arja Suominen, b. 1958, MA, e-mba, SVP Corporate Communications and Corporate Responsibility, Member of the Executive Board, in Finnair's service since 14 March Suominen previously worked for Nokia, mainly in mainly in communications positions, ultimately as Nokia's Senior Vice President, Communications. Manne Tiensuu, b. 1970, M Psych, SVP Human Resources, Member of the Executive Board, in Finnair's service since Tiensuu previously worked for Glaston Oyj and Nokia Oyj. Kaisa Vikkula, b. 1960, D. Sc. (Econ), SVP Travel Services, Member of the Executive Board, in Finnair's service since Vikkula previously worked in the finance and capital markets, as an investor relations and communications director for Partek Plc and 34

35 Appendices 35

36 Traffic structure in Q Traffic capacity in Available Seat Kilometers (ASK) Passenger revenue 3% 7% 8% 5% 5% 7% 52% 51% 30% 32% Asia Domestic Europe North Atlantic Asia Domestic Europe North Atlantic Leisure Leisure 36

37 Finnair s ownership Government ownership 55.8%, other major shareholders incl. financial and insurance corporations LARGEST SHAREHOLDERS 25 OCT 2012 # Shares of shares and votes 1 Finnish State 71,515, % 2 KEVA (Local Government Pensions Institution ) 5,881, % 3 Skagen funds 5,720, % 4 Ilmarinen Mutual Pension Insurance Company 3,025, % 5 Tapiola General Mutual Insurance Company 2,276, % 6 The State Pension Fund 2,100, % 7 Veritas Pension Insurance 1,530, % 8 OP-Suomi Arvo (equity fund) 1,400, % 9 Mutual Insurance Company Pension Fennia 1,300, % 10 Alfred Berg Finland (equity fund) 1,287, % 11 Suomi Mutual Life Assurance Company 1,250, % 12 Varma Mutual Pension Insurance Company 600, % 13 Finnair Personnel Fund 562, % 14 Evli Suomi Select (equity fund) 532, % 15 Mandatum Life Insurance Company Limited 505, % Total 15 largest 99,488, % Other shareholders 28,647, % Total number of shares and votes 128,136, % Nominee registered shareholders hold 6.7% of company shares. Ownership by type 12.2% 9.8% 2.9% 4.7% Public bodies Households Financial institutions Foreign ownership Private companies 0.7% 0.0% Non-profit institutions 69.9% Not converted to book-entry system 37

38 Rolling hedging policy Hedging positions, 30 September 2012 Hedge ratio H1 2013: 69% Finnair hedges jet fuel positions 24 months ahead within the limits defined in the hedging policy Finnair is 74% hedged for the next six months The company protects itself against the risks of currency, interest rate and jet fuel positions by using different derivative instruments, such as forward contracts, swaps and options 38