Future Growth of the Airline Industry

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1 Future Growth of the Airline Industry How will global competition drive change? Andrew Herdman Director General Association of Asia Pacific Airlines Geneva, Switzerland 22 February 2011

2 Overview Current business conditions Future growth drivers Evolving airline strategies

3 Aviation: moving the world Air travel delivers global mobility 2,500 million passengers Outstanding safety record Carries 35% by value of global trade Wider social and economic benefits Source: ATAG

4 Airlines managed through the downturn Trimmed route networks and capacity in response to lower demand Reduced utilisation, grounded surplus aircraft, deferred some new deliveries Implemented wide range of measures to reduce staff costs, retrenchment as a last resort Conserved cash, shored up balance sheets Worked with industry partners to reduce unnecessary costs Airlines focused on survival whilst preserving their ability to respond to an upturn

5 Global economic recovery World growth 2009A - 0.6% 2010E +4.8% 2011E +4.2% 2012F +4.5% Source: IMF Led by dynamic Asia Pacific economies

6 Recovery in passenger and cargo volumes Global international passenger and cargo traffic Overall volumes returned to pre-recession levels Source: IATA

7 Slower recovery for premium traffic Global international passenger traffic by class Source: IATA

8 Refocusing on growth Ongoing capital investment in fleets, airports and other services infrastructure Recruitment and training of skilled workforce Airfares do not keep pace with general price inflation Constant focus on productivity improvements and reducing unit costs Manage risks including currency and oil price volatility Governments still view our industry as a soft target for arbitrary taxes

9 Oil price volatility Real oil prices Oil as % of World GDP Source: FT Macro-economic impact Future carbon emissions pricing

10 Global airline industry profitability Welcome return to profitability in 2010, but some caution over prospects for 2011

11 Poor returns to airline shareholders Paradoxically, the industry has never suffered from capital scarcity

12 Airline EBITDA margins by region Source: IATA

13 Airline profitability by region Asia Pacific and US airlines outpacing European carriers

14 Will capacity growth pressure profits? Source: Ascend

15 Future Growth

16 Long term growth prospects remain bright Source: Airbus GMF2010 Projected annual growth rates

17 Asia Pacific traffic will grow significantly Traffic by airline domicile Source: Airbus

18 Airline Strategies

19 Competitive dimensions for airlines Revenue enhancement Tailoring products to markets Investing in premium products and services Active yield management Multiple brand strategies Improving cost competitiveness Asset utilisation Fuel efficiency Labour productivity Value chain improvement Partnering with service providers

20 Evolving Business Models Full Service Network Carriers Streamlining short haul operations Establishing LCC subs and associates Point-to-Point LCCs Initially focused on domestic short-haul Venturing into longer-haul markets Experimenting with codeshares, connections, adding customer service Further signs of convergence and hybridisation Long haul invariably uses wide body aircraft, involves cargo operations, two-class passenger configurations

21 Asia: customer service leadership Asian carriers are global leaders in service quality with world-class premium product offerings Premium cabins generate 27% of total international passenger revenue Continuous innovation in seat comfort, cabin ambience, inflight entertainment, food and beverage, cabin crew, customer service Investing in products, people and partnerships

22 Growth: complementary business models FSC LCC FSC Global network carriers expected to thrive despite competition LCC

23 Structural reform Progressive liberalisation of traffic rights has supported growth but led to highly fragmented industry structure Restrictive national ownership and control rules stand in the way of necessary restructuring and international consolidation Domestic markets remain closed to foreign investment and competition Airlines unable to fully access international capital markets Also need to reform quasi-monopoly aviation service providers, including airports and air navigation Airlines need more freedom to compete globally, just like other industries

24 Global regulatory influences Asia Pacific Wider impact of US and EU regulations

25 Global aviation taking steps towards consolidation Full cross-border mergers still restricted by national ownership and control rules US and EU aim to leverage their domestic markets and dominant regulatory influence to shape the industry

26 Asia Pacific Europe North America Airline enterprise values by region Source: AAPA Estimates

27 Closing Thoughts Aviation is at the heart of global economic development Prospects for long term growth remain bright Global economic growth will shape future aviation Intensely competitive industry continues to drive innovation Highly regulated industry, covering both technical, economic and customer service dimensions Intractable global policy issues, especially climate change Further steps needed to truly liberalise this most global of industries

28 Association of Asia Pacific Airlines 9/F Kompleks Antarabangsa Jalan Sultan Ismail Kuala Lumpur MALAYSIA Tel: Fax:

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