CHANGES IN MEXICO'S WEALTH AND HOUSEHOLD ENERGY CONSUMPTION LANDY SÁNCHEZ EL COLEGIO DE MÉXICO

Transcription

1 CHANGES IN MEXICO'S WEALTH AND HOUSEHOLD ENERGY CONSUMPTION LANDY SÁNCHEZ EL COLEGIO DE MÉXICO

2 MEXICO HISTORICAL TRENDS Social and demographic Lower fertility rates Higher urbanization Higher education Changing migration patterns Family formation Economic context

3 GDP per capita growth (annual %) GDP per capita growth (annual %)

4 ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND INCOME DISTRIBUTION GDP per capita and GINI index, Mexico US dollars (costant 2005) GINI GDP per capita (constant 2005 US$) GINI index

5 HOW DO CHANGES IN ECONOMIC WEALTH IMPACT HOUSEHOLD ENERGY CONSUMPTION? Approaches with household data Comparative aggregated data across countries and over time Response to price changes My approach Age-period-cohort Time dimension Nested/context

6 AGE-PERIOD-COHORT APPROACH Birth Cohort: shared formative experience Period: historical times, impacts all individuals, across cohorts Alwin and McCammon 2003 Ageing, life stages

7 HOW DO CHANGES IN ECONOMIC WEALTH IMPACT HOUSEHOLD ENERGY CONSUMPTION? Age: life course, changing household characteristics Period: changes on country s economic wealth and income distribution Birth cohort: shaping practices and reading the economic context

8 DATA Eight Mexican Income and Expenditure Household Survey Data Only urban households: 97,161 Birth Cohorts: 5 years periods Good for building up cohorts, bur relative short period Direct Energy consumption Electricity, gas, oil, coal, firewood at home Energy consumption: expenditure >>> fuels Price, net caloric content Cross-classified Hierarchical APC Model

9 MODEL Age-Period-Cohort: Cross-classified Hierarchical APCM (Yang and Land 2006, Yang 2008, Yang and Land 2013) Solution to the Identification Problem Single year of age Time periods correspond to years in which the surveys are conducted Cohorts can be defined either by five intervals that are conventional in demography (also substantive classification e.g., War babies, Baby Boomers, Baby Busters, etc.).

10 YEAR Birth cohort Total Before , , , , , ,152 5, , ,494 7, ,232 1,645 1,307 1,902 9, , ,443 1,800 1,493 2,300 10, ,301 1, ,654 2,162 1,767 2,732 12, ,510 1,139 1,085 2,004 2,724 2,389 3,443 15, ,388 2,108 1,865 2,817 10, ,522 1,556 2,281 7, ,604 3, , Total 6,335 9,358 7,027 6,802 12,405 17,318 15,160 22,715 97,120 Data Structure Households are nested Simultaneously in two social contexts: Time periods and cohorts of their households, in a cross-classified structure

11 ADVANTAGES AND LIMITATIONS Advantages of CHAPC Micro-level data, instead of aggregate population estimates Different definitions of times for age, period and cohorts Considers hierarchical nature of the data Allows the specification of fix and random effects Manage unbalance data Limitations: Synthetic cohort, not true birth cohort (only with longitudinal data) But synthetic cohort: national representation of all ages (potential long time span) The longer the series, the better

12 Variables in the model: Dependent variable: log per capita energy consumption MODEL Household Explanatory variables: Income Per capita expenditure (log) Sex of Household Head (HH) Education HH Household Size Family structure Dwelling Size (number of rooms) Geographical Regions Period Explanatory variables: Inequality distribution * Also tested, occupation HH, activities outside household, plus GDP as a period variable

13 HAPC-CCREM ( Yang and Land 2008, 20013)

14 RESULST HAPC MIXED EFFECTS MODELS MIXED EFFECTS MODELS

15 AGE-PERIOD-COHORT EFFECTS M0: unconditional model Significant Period and cohort effects, though small M1: Age-period-cohort pure effects

16 M1: COHORT AND PERIOD

17 HOUSEHOLD PREDICTORS 3500 Income effect Age Expenditure levels positive positive 3000 Household Size positive Rooms numbers non linear - low numbers, + large numbers 1500 Energy consumption Education Increases, thouhg less so at higher education 1000 Female headed Household Positive 500 Family type mixed results Region higher for warmer, richer regions

18 COHORT

19 PERIOD

20 PERIOD PREDICTORS Effect of income shared by the top 20% energy Consumption

21 PERIOD-INCOME EFFECTS 6000 household income & period inequality 5000 energy consumption inc_share20 inc_exp50

22 IMPLICATIOS Energy consumptions responses to household life course (age) Energy consumption respond rapidly to changes on income levels, but also to larger impacts related to context in which households are inserted: Period effects linked to income distribution, Cohorts lasting effects for some generations, although mainly compositional for the most part How fast and direct changes in economic development translate into household behavior?