Population Change in Texas and The Dallas-Fort Worth Area: Implications for Education, the Labor Force and Economic Development

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1 Population Change in Texas and The Dallas-Fort Worth Area: Implications for Education, the Labor Force and Economic Development Steve H. Murdock, Director Hobby Center for the Study of Texas and Allyn and Gladys Cline Professor of Sociology Rice University DFW International Community Alliance Dallas, Texas August 24, 2011 Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

2 Major Topics of the Presentation Population Change Increasing Racial/Ethnic Diversity Aging of the Population Implications of Demographic Change for Education, The Labor Force and Economic Development Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

3 Total Population and Percent Population Change in Texas and the United States, Total Population Percent Change Year Texas U.S. Texas U.S ,592 23,191, ,215 31,443, ,579 39,818, ,591,749 50,155, ,235,527 62,947, ,048,710 75,994, ,896,542 91,972, ,663, ,710, ,824, ,775, ,414, ,669, ,711, ,697, ,579, ,323, ,196, ,302, ,229, ,545, ,986, ,709, ,851, ,421, ,145, ,745, Source: Derived from the U.S. Census Bureau decennial census April 1 of reported year. Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

4 Components of Change, U.S. and Texas, United States Texas Component Numeric Change Percent of Total Change Numeric Change Percent of Total Change Total Change 25,584, ,930, Natural Increase 15,875, ,124, Net Domestic Migration , Net International Migration 9,709, , Source: Derived from U.S. Bureau of the Census.

5 Ten States in the United States with the Largest Numeric Population Increase Change State 2000 Population 2010 Population Numeric Percent United States 281,421, ,745,538 27,323, Texas 20,851,820 25,145,561 4,293, California 33,871,648 37,253,956 3,382, Florida 15,982,378 18,801,310 2,818, Georgia 8,186,453 9,687,653 1,501, North Carolina 8,049,313 9,535,483 1,486, Arizona 5,130,632 6,392,017 1,261, Virginia 7,078,515 8,001, , Washington 5,894,121 6,724, , Colorado 4,301,261 5,029, , Nevada 1,998,257 2,700, , Population values as of April 1, 2000 and April 1, Source: U.S. Census Bureau Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

6 Regional Population Change as a Proportion of U.S. Population Change, Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

7 Population 2000 and 2010 and Population Change for the Ten Most Populous Incorporated Places in the United States Place Population Change Number Percent New York, NY 8,008,278 8,175, , Los Angeles, CA 3,694,820 3,792,621 97, Chicago, IL 2,896,016 2,695, , Houston, TX 1,953,631 2,099, , Philadelphia, PA 1,517,550 1,526,006 8, Phoenix, AZ 1,321,045 1,445, , San Antonio, TX 1,144,646 1,327, , San Diego, CA 1,223,400 1,307,402 84, Dallas, TX 1,188,580 1,197,816 9, San Jose, CA 894, ,942 50, Source: U.S. Census 2000 & 2010, P.L

8 Texas Regional Councils of Governments

9 Councils of Governments in Texas Ranked by Total Population in 2010: Total Population in 2000 and 2010; Numeric and Percent Change, ; and Percent of the State Population (2010) and State Population Change Total Population Population Change Percent of State Council of Government Numeric % Population 2010 Change, North Central Texas 5,309,277 6,539,950 1,230, Houston-Galveston 4,854,454 6,087,133 1,232, Alamo Area 1,807,868 2,249, , Capital Area 1,346,833 1,830, , Lower Rio Grande Valley 924,772 1,203, , East Texas 745, ,749 84, Rio Grande 704, , , Coastal Bend 549, ,987 22, Central Texas 374, ,641 75, Panhandle 402, ,927 25, Permian Basin 376, ,679 41, South Plains 377, ,659 33, South East Texas 385, ,745 3, Deep East Texas 355, ,477 22, Heart of Texas 321, ,273 27, South Texas 264, ,590 66, West Central Texas 324, ,390 2, Brazos Valley 267, ,447 52, Ark-Tex 270, ,947 11, Nortex 224, ,860-1, Texoma 178, ,229 15, Golden Crescent 183, ,626 4, Middle Rio Grande 154, ,010 12, Concho Valley 148, ,192 5, State of Texas 20,851,818 25,145,561 4,293,

10 Texas Metropolitan Statistical Areas

11 Total Population in 2000 and 2010 in Metropolitan Statistical Areas in Texas Ranked by Numerical Change Between 2000 and 2010 Total Population Change Metropolitan Statistical Area Numeric % Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown 4,715,407 5,946,800 1,231, Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington 5,161,544 6,371,773 1,210, Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos 1,249,763 1,716, , San Antonio-New Braunfels 1,711,703 2,142, , McAllen-Edinburg-Mission 569, , , El Paso 679, , , Killeen-Temple-Fort Hood 330, ,300 74, Brownsville-Harlingen 335, ,220 70, Laredo 193, ,304 57, College Station-Bryan 184, ,660 43, Lubbock 249, ,890 35, Tyler 174, ,714 35, Corpus Christi 403, ,185 24, Amarillo 226, ,881 23, Waco 213, ,906 21, Midland 116, ,872 20, Longview 194, ,369 20, Odessa 121, ,130 16, Sherman-Denison 110, ,877 10, San Angelo 105, ,823 6, Abilene 160, ,252 5, Victoria 111, ,384 3, Texarkana* 89,306 92,565 3, Beaumont-Port Arthur 385, ,745 3, Wichita Falls 151, , Source: U.S. Census Bureau *Reflects total population for Texas portion of MSA only.

12 Total Population in 2000 and 2010 and Population Change for the Twenty Largest Counties in Texas (2010) Change County Numeric Percent Harris County 3,400,578 4,092, , Dallas County 2,218,899 2,368, , Tarrant County 1,446,219 1,809, , Bexar County 1,392,931 1,714, , Travis County 812,280 1,024, , El Paso County 679, , , Collin County 491, , , Hidalgo County 569, , , Denton County 432, , , Fort Bend County 354, , , Montgomery County 293, , , Williamson County 249, , , Cameron County 335, ,220 70, Nueces County 313, ,223 26, Brazoria County 241, ,166 71, Bell County 237, ,235 72, Galveston County 250, ,309 41, Lubbock County 242, ,831 36, Jefferson County 252, , Webb County 193, ,304 57, Source: U.S. Census 2000 and 2010, P.L Population Counts as of April 1, 2000 and April 1, 2010.

13 Twenty Counties in Texas with the Largest Numeric Population Increase Between 2000 and 2010 Change County Numeric Percent Harris County 3,400,578 4,092, , Tarrant County 1,446,219 1,809, , Bexar County 1,392,931 1,714, , Collin County 491, , , Fort Bend County 354, , , Denton County 432, , , Travis County 812,280 1,024, , Hidalgo County 569, , , Williamson County 249, , , Montgomery County 293, , , Dallas County 2,218,899 2,368, , El Paso County 679, , , Bell County 237, ,235 72, Brazoria County 241, ,166 71, Cameron County 335, ,220 70, Hays County 97, ,107 59, Webb County 193, ,304 57, Guadalupe County 89, ,533 42, Brazos County 152, ,851 42, Galveston County 250, ,309 41, Source: U.S. Census 2000 and 2010, P.L Population Counts as of April 1, 2000 and April 1, 2010.

14 Twenty Counties in Texas with the Largest Percentage Population Increase Between 2000 and 2010 Change County Numeric Percent Rockwall County 43,080 78,337 35, Williamson County 249, , , Fort Bend County 354, , , Hays County 97, ,107 59, Collin County 491, , , Montgomery County 293, , , Denton County 432, , , Guadalupe County 89, ,533 42, Kaufman County 71, ,350 32, Kendall County 23,743 33,410 9, Comal County 78, ,472 30, Hidalgo County 569, , , Chambers County 26,031 35,096 9, Ellis County 111, ,610 38, Garza County 4,872 6,461 1, Wilson County 32,408 42,918 10, Waller County 32,663 43,205 10, Parker County 88, ,927 28, Bell County 237, ,235 72, Webb County 193, ,304 57, Source: U.S. Census 2000 and 2010, P.L Population Counts as of April 1, 2000 and April 1, 2010.

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16 Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the Total Population by Race/Ethnicity for the State of Texas, 2000 and 2010 Percent of Change Population Race/ Ethnicity* Numeric Percent NH White (Anglo) 10,933,313 11,397, , Hispanic 6,669,666 9,460,921 2,791, NH Black 2,364,255 2,886, , NH American Indian 68,859 80,586 11, NH Asian 554, , , NH Hawaiian/Pac. Isldr. 10,757 17,920 7, NH Some Other Race 19,958 33,980 14, NH Two or More Races 230, ,558 88, Total 20,851,820 25,145,561 4,293, Source: U.S. Census 2010, P.L *Hispanic includes Hispanic persons of all races. All other race/ethnicity categories shown here are non-hispanic (non-hispanic White[Anglo], non-hispanic Black, non-hispanic American Indian, non-hispanic Asian, non-hispanic Hawaiian/Pacific Islander, non-hispanic Some Other Race, non-hispanic Two or More Races).

17 Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the Population Age 18+ Years of Age by Race/Ethnicity for Texas, 2000 and 2010 Percent of Change Population Race/Ethnicity* Numeric Percent NH Whites (Anglo) 8,426,166 9,074, , Hispanic (All Races) 4,282,901 6,143,144 1,860, NH Black 1,631,448 2,076, , NH Asian 415, , , NH "Other" Races 70,612 95,973 25, NH Two or More Races 138, ,686 33, State of Texas 14,965,061 18,279,737 3,314, Source: U.S. Census 2010, P.L * Other Race is comprised of Native American and Alaska Native, Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander, and Some Other Race as per the Census 2000 and Census Hispanic includes persons of all races. All other race/ethnicity categories shown here are non-hispanic (e.g., non-hispanic White, non-hispanic Black, etc.)

18 Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the Population Less than 18 Years of Age by Race/Ethnicity for Texas, 2000 and 2010 Percent of Change Population Race/Ethnicity* Numeric Percent NH Whites (Anglo) 2,507,147 2,322, , Hispanic (All Races) 2,386,765 3,317, , NH Black 732, ,543 77, NH Asian 139, ,458 92, NH "Other" Races 28,962 36,513 7, NH Two or More Races 91, ,872 55, State of Texas 5,886,759 6,865, , Source: U.S. Census 2010, P.L * Other Race is comprised of Native American and Alaska Native, Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander, and Some Other Race as per the Census 2000 and Census Hispanic includes persons of all races. All other race/ethnicity categories shown here are non-hispanic (e.g., non- Hispanic White, non-hispanic Black, etc.)

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23 Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the Total Population by Race/Ethnicity for the United States, 2000 and 2010 Population Population Change Percent of Total Population Race/Ethnicity* Numeric Percent Percent of Total Change NH White 194,552, ,817,552 2,264, Hispanic (All Races) 35,295,818 50,477,594 15,181, NH Black 33,947,837 37,685,848 3,738, NH Asian 9,123,169 14,455,124 5,331, NH Other 8,502,308 9,309, , Total 281,421, ,745,538 27,323, *Hispanic includes persons of all races. All other race/ethnicity categories shown here are Non-Hispanic. Non-Hispanic Other includes persons identifying themselves as Non-Hispanic American Indian or Alaska Native, Non-Hispanic Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander, Non-Hispanic Some Other Race, or Non-Hispanic and a combination of two or more races. Source: U.S. Census 2000 & 2010, P.L Prepared by the Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

24 Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the Population Under Age 18 by Race/Ethnicity for the United States, 2000 and 2010 Population Population Change Percent of Total Population Race/Ethnicity* Numeric Percent Percent of Total Change NH White 44,000,987 39,716,562-4,284, Hispanic (All Races) 9,650,935 17,130,891 7,479, NH Black 10,606,391 10,362, , NH Asian 1,417,961 3,166,129 1,748, NH Other 3,901,029 3,805,702-95, Total 69,577,303 74,181,467 4,604, *Hispanic includes persons of all races. All other race/ethnicity categories shown here are Non-Hispanic. Non-Hispanic Other includes persons identifying themselves as Non-Hispanic American Indian or Alaska Native, Non-Hispanic Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander, Non-Hispanic Some Other Race, or Non-Hispanic and a combination of two or more races. Source: U.S. Census 2000 & 2010, P.L Prepared by the Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

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29 Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the Total Population by Race/Ethnicity for Metropolitan Central City Counties in Texas, 2000 and 2010 *Hispanic includes persons of all races. All other race/ethnicity categories shown here are Non-Hispanic. Non-Hispanic Other includes persons identifying themselves as Non-Hispanic American Indian or Alaska Native, Non-Hispanic Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander, Non-Hispanic Some Other Race, or Non-Hispanic and a combination of two or more races. Source: U.S. Census 2000 & 2010, P.L Population Population Change Percent of Total Population Race/Ethnicity* Numeric Percent Percent of Total Change Prepared by the Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University NH White 6,280,433 6,126, , Hispanic (All Races) 5,233,081 7,310,033 2,076, NH Black 1,825,667 2,184, , NH Asian 427, , , NH Other 227, ,543 59, Total 13,993,705 16,543,223 2,549,

30 Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the Total Population by Race/Ethnicity for Metropolitan Suburban Counties in Texas, 2000 and 2010 Population Population Change Percent of Total Population Race/Ethnicity* Numeric Percent Percent of Total Change NH White 2,818,246 3,466, , Hispanic (All Races) 659,705 1,196, , NH Black 288, , , NH Asian 116, , , NH Other 68, ,229 53, Total 3,950,843 5,541,946 1,591, *Hispanic includes persons of all races. All other race/ethnicity categories shown here are Non-Hispanic. Non-Hispanic Other includes persons identifying themselves as Non-Hispanic American Indian or Alaska Native, Non-Hispanic Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander, Non-Hispanic Some Other Race, or Non-Hispanic and a combination of two or more races. Source: U.S. Census 2000 & 2010, P.L Prepared by the Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

31 Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the Total Population by Race/Ethnicity for Non-Metropolitan Counties in Texas, 2000 and 2010 *Hispanic includes persons of all races. All other race/ethnicity categories shown here are Non-Hispanic. Non-Hispanic Other includes persons identifying themselves as Non-Hispanic American Indian or Alaska Native, Non-Hispanic Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander, Non-Hispanic Some Other Race, or Non-Hispanic and a combination of two or more races. Source: U.S. Census 2000 & 2010, P.L Population Population Change Percent of Total Population Race/Ethnicity* Numeric Percent Percent of Total Change Prepared by the Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University NH White 1,834,634 1,805,197-29, Hispanic (All Races) 776, , , NH Black 250, ,758-10, NH Asian 10,538 16,309 5, NH Other 34,969 44,272 9, Total 2,907,272 3,060, ,

32 Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the Total Population by Race/Ethnicity for the Dallas-Ft. Worth-Arlington Metropolitan Statistical Area, 2000 and 2010 Percent of Change Population Race/ Ethnicity* Numeric Percent NH White (Anglo) 3,043,394 3,201, , Hispanic 1,117,717 1,752, , NH Black 707, , , NH American Indian 21,120 24,758 3, NH Asian 193, , , NH Hawaiian/Pacific Islander 3,692 5,431 1, NH Some Other Race 5,495 9,049 3, NH Two or More Races 68,809 99,182 30, Total 5,161,544 6,371,773 1,210, Source: U.S. Census 2010, P.L Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) as defined by OMB in *Hispanic includes Hispanic persons of all races. All other race/ethnicity categories shown here are non-hispanic (non-hispanic White[Anglo], non-hispanic Black, non-hispanic American Indian, non-hispanic Asian, non-hispanic Hawaiian/Pacific Islander, non-hispanic Some Other Race, non-hispanic Two or More Races).

33 Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the Population by Race/Ethnicity for the Population Less than Age 18 in the Dallas-Ft. Worth-Arlington Metropolitan Statistical Area, 2000 and 2010 Percent of Change Population Race/ Ethnicity* Numeric Percent NH White(Anglo) 726, ,033-36, Hispanic 408, , , NH Black 227, ,205 49, NH American Indian 5,337 6, NH Asian 51,095 88,876 37, NH Hawaiian/Pacific Islander 1,297 1, NH Some Other Race 2,426 3,616 1, NH Two or More Races 28,078 46,893 18, Total 1,450,711 1,773, , Source: U.S. Census 2000 and 2010, P.L Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) as defined by OMB in *Hispanic includes Hispanic persons of all races. All other race/ethnicity categories shown here are non-hispanic (non-hispanic White[Anglo], non-hispanic Black, non-hispanic American Indian, non-hispanic Asian, non-hispanic Hawaiian/Pacific Islander, non-hispanic Some Other Race, non-hispanic Two or More Races).

34 Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the Total Population by Race/Ethnicity for Dallas County, Texas, 2000 and 2010 Percent of Change Population Race/ Ethnicity* Numeric Percent NH White (Anglo) 983, , , Hispanic 662, , , NH Black 445, ,732 73, NH American Indian 8,106 7, NH Asian 87, ,797 30, NH Hawaiian/Pacific Islander NH Some Other Race 2,388 3, NH Two or More Races 28,222 29,427 1, Total 2,218,899 2,368, , Source: U.S. Census 2010, P.L *Hispanic includes Hispanic persons of all races. All other race/ethnicity categories shown here are non-hispanic (non-hispanic White[Anglo], non-hispanic Black, non-hispanic American Indian, non-hispanic Asian, non-hispanic Hawaiian/Pacific Islander, non-hispanic Some Other Race, non-hispanic Two or More Races).

35 Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the Population by Race/Ethnicity for the Population Less than Age 18 in Dallas County, Texas, 2000 and 2010 Percent of Change Population Race/ Ethnicity* Numeric Percent NH White(Anglo) 199, ,804-72, Hispanic 240, ,108 95, NH Black 142, ,215 5, NH American Indian 1,987 1, NH Asian 21,887 27,478 5, NH Hawaiian/Pacific Islander NH Some Other Race 992 1, NH Two or More Races 10,693 12,583 1, Total 619, ,263 35, Source: U.S. Census 2010, P.L *Hispanic includes Hispanic persons of all races. All other race/ethnicity categories shown here are non-hispanic (non-hispanic White[Anglo], non-hispanic Black, non-hispanic American Indian, non-hispanic Asian, non-hispanic Hawaiian/Pacific Islander, non-hispanic Some Other Race, non-hispanic Two or More Races).

36 Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the Total Population by Race/Ethnicity for Tarrant County, Texas, 2000 and 2010 Percent of Change Population Race Ethnicity* Numeric Percent NH White (Anglo) 895, ,135 41, Hispanic 285, , , NH Black 182, ,522 79, NH American Indian 5,971 7,037 1, NH Asian 52,057 83,378 31, NH Hawaiian/Pacific Islander 2,042 2, NH Some Other Race 1,540 2, NH Two or More Races 21,353 30,556 9, Total 1,446,219 1,809, , Source: U.S. Census 2010, P.L *Hispanic includes Hispanic persons of all races. All other race/ethnicity categories shown here are non-hispanic (non-hispanic White[Anglo], non-hispanic Black, non-hispanic American Indian, non-hispanic Asian, non-hispanic Hawaiian/Pacific Islander, non-hispanic Some Other Race, non-hispanic Two or More Races).

37 Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the Total Population Less Than Age 18 by Race/Ethnicity for Tarrant County, Texas, 2000 and 2010 Percent of Change Population Race Ethnicity* Numeric Percent NH White(Anglo) 213, ,205-13, Hispanic 106, ,808 78, NH Black 60,165 81,533 21, NH American Indian 1,470 1, NH Asian 14,127 21,745 7, NH Hawaiian/Pacific Islander NH Some Other Race 730 1, NH Two or More Races 9,085 15,095 6, Total 406, , , Source: U.S. Census 2010, P.L *Hispanic includes Hispanic persons of all races. All other race/ethnicity categories shown here are non-hispanic (non-hispanic White[Anglo], non-hispanic Black, non-hispanic American Indian, non-hispanic Asian, non-hispanic Hawaiian/Pacific Islander, non-hispanic Some Other Race, non-hispanic Two or More Races).

38 Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the Total Population by Race/Ethnicity for Dallas, Texas, 2000 and 2010 Percent of Change Population Race/ Ethnicity* Numeric Percent NH White (Anglo) 410, ,205-65, Hispanic 422, ,309 84, NH Black 304, ,159-10, NH American Indian 3,705 3, NH Asian 31,626 33,609 1, NH Hawaiian/Pacific Islander NH Some Other Race 1,254 1, NH Two or More Races 13,440 12,232-1, Total 1,188,580 1,197,816 9, Source: U.S. Census 2010, P.L *Hispanic includes Hispanic persons of all races. All other race/ethnicity categories shown here are non-hispanic (non-hispanic White[Anglo], non-hispanic Black, non-hispanic American Indian, non-hispanic Asian, non-hispanic Hawaiian/Pacific Islander, non-hispanic Some Other Race, non-hispanic Two or More Races).

39 Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the Population by Race/Ethnicity for the Population Less than Age 18 in Dallas, Texas, 2000 and 2010 Percent of Change Population Race/ Ethnicity* Numeric Percent NH White(Anglo) 60,183 45,854-14, Hispanic 150, ,407 33, NH Black 92,443 75,966-16, NH American Indian NH Asian 6,901 6, NH Hawaiian/Pacific Islander NH Some Other Race NH Two or More Races 4,463 4, Total 315, ,128 1, Source: U.S. Census 2000 and 2010, P.L *Hispanic includes Hispanic persons of all races. All other race/ethnicity categories shown here are non-hispanic (non-hispanic White[Anglo], non-hispanic Black, non-hispanic American Indian, non-hispanic Asian, non-hispanic Hawaiian/Pacific Islander, non-hispanic Some Other Race, non-hispanic Two or More Races).

40 Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the Total Population by Race/Ethnicity for Fort Worth, Texas, 2000 and 2010 Percent of Change Population Race Ethnicity* Numeric Percent NH White (Anglo) 244, ,312 64, Hispanic 159, ,468 93, NH Black 106, ,941 29, NH American Indian 1,828 2, NH Asian 13,895 27,095 13, NH Hawaiian/Pacific Islander NH Some Other Race NH Two or More Races 6,873 11,301 4, Total 534, , , Source: U.S. Census 2010, P.L *Hispanic includes Hispanic persons of all races. All other race/ethnicity categories shown here are non-hispanic (non-hispanic White[Anglo], non-hispanic Black, non-hispanic American Indian, non-hispanic Asian, non-hispanic Hawaiian/Pacific Islander, non-hispanic Some Other Race, non-hispanic Two or More Races).

41 Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the Total Population Less Than Age 18 by Race/Ethnicity for Fort Worth, Texas, 2000 and 2010 Percent of Change Population Race Ethnicity* Numeric Percent NH White(Anglo) 49,563 65,347 15, Hispanic 60,120 96,627 36, NH Black 34,126 41,757 7, NH American Indian NH Asian 3,644 7,140 3, NH Hawaiian/Pacific Islander NH Some Other Race NH Two or More Races 2,877 5,581 2, Total 151, ,643 66, Source: U.S. Census 2000 and 2010, P.L *Hispanic includes Hispanic persons of all races. All other race/ethnicity categories shown here are non-hispanic (non-hispanic White[Anglo], non-hispanic Black, non-hispanic American Indian, non-hispanic Asian, non-hispanic Hawaiian/Pacific Islander, non-hispanic Some Other Race, non-hispanic Two or More Races).

42 80.0 Percent Percent of Texas Population by Age Group and Ethnicity, < 5 years 5 to 9 years 10 to 14 years 15 to 19 years 20 to 24 years 25 to 29 years 30 to 34 years 35 to 39 years 40 to 44 years 45 to 49 years 50 to 54 years 55 to 59 years 60 to 64 years 65 + years Anglo Hispanic Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

43 80.0 Percent of Texas Population by Age Group and Ethnicity, 2010 Anglo Hispanic Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

44 80.0 Percent Percent of Texas Population by Age Group and Ethnicity, 2040* < 5 years 5 to 9 years 10 to 14 years 15 to 19 years 20 to 24 years 25 to 29 years 30 to 34 years 35 to 39 years 40 to 44 years 45 to 49 years 50 to 54 years 55 to 59 years 60 to 64 years 65 + years Anglo Hispanic * Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

45 Percent of United States Population by Age Group and Ethnicity, 2000 Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

46 Percent of United States Population by Age Group and Ethnicity, 2050 Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

47 POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS AND SOCIOECONOMIC CONDITIONS Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

48 Total and Percent of the Texas Population in Poverty and Median Household Income by Race/Ethnicity, 1999 and Population in Poverty % Median Household Income* Population in Poverty % Median Household Income Anglo 826, $60,839 1,010, $59,836 Hispanic 1,658, $38,536 2,364, $35,628 Black 525, $37, , $35,438 Asian 65, $64, , $63,692 Other 42, NA 40, NA Total 3,117, $51,506 4,150, $50,043 *In 2009 Dollars Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000 and American Community Survey, 2009

49 Total and Percent of the United States Population in Poverty and Median Household Income by Race/Ethnicity, 1999 and Population in Poverty % Median Household Income* Population in Poverty % Median Household Income Anglo 15,414, $58,523 19,462, $54,671 Hispanic 7,797, $43,442 11,130, $39,923 Black 8,146, $37,956 9,407, $33,463 Asian 1,257, $66,961 1,539, $68,780 Other 1,284, NA 1,327, NA Total 33,899, $54,172 42,868, $50,221 *In 2009 Dollars Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000 and American Community Survey, 2009 Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

50 Educational Attainment for the Texas Population Age 25 and Older by Race/Ethnicity, 2009 Population Age 25 and Older Less than high school High school diploma Some college or associates degree Race Ethnicity Bachelor or more Non-Hispanic White 8,026, Black 1,705, Hispanic* 4,876, Asian 580, Total 15,361, Source: U.S. Census, American Community Survey, *Includes Hispanic persons of all races.

51 Educational Attainment for the United States Population Age 25 and Older by Race/Ethnicity, 2009 Population Age 25 and Older Less than high school High school diploma Some college or associates degree Race Ethnicity Bachelor or more Non-Hispanic White 139,962, Black 22,975, Hispanic* 26,106, Asian 9,404, Total 201,952, Source: U.S. Census, American Community Survey, *Includes Hispanic persons of all races.

52 PROJECTIONS Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

53 Projections of the U.S. Population by Race and Hispanic Origin: 2000 to 2050 (Resident population as of July 1. Numbers in thousands) Non-Hispanic Year Hispanic All other White alone Black alone Asian alone (any race) races Total ,771 34,414 10,436 5,909 35, , ,853 37,985 14,083 7,586 49, , ,255 41,847 18,308 9,612 66, , ,217 45,461 22,991 11,904 85, , ,065 48,780 28,064 14, , , ,347 51,949 33,418 17, , ,010 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2008 National Projections Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

54 Numeric Change in the Projected U.S. Population by Race and Hispanic Origin: 2000 to 2050 (in millions) Non-Hispanic White alone Non-Hispanic Black alone Non-Hispanic Asian alone Non-Hispanic all other races Hispanic (any race) Total Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2008 National Projections Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

55 Projected Change in the U.S. Population by Race and Hispanic Origin: 2000 to 2050 Non-Hispanic White alone 5% Non-Hispanic Black alone 11% Non-Hispanic Asian alone 15% Hispanic 62% Non-Hispanic Other 7% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2008 National Projections

56 Projected Age Distribution of the U.S. Population: 2000 to 2050 Age Group (Percent of total resident population as of July 1) Under 5 years to 19 years to 44 years to 64 years to 84 years years and over Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2008 National Projections Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

57 Percent Race and Hispanic Origin Distribution of the U.S. Population by Selected Age Groups: 2000 (Percent of each age group's resident population as of July 1) Age Non-Hispanic Non-Hispanic Non-Hispanic Non-Hispanic Hispanic White alone Black alone Asian alone all other races (any race) Total Total Under 5 years to 17 years to 24 years to 44 years to 64 years years and over to 74 years to 84 years years and over Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2008 National Projections Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

58 Projected Percent Race and Hispanic Origin Distribution of the U.S. Population by Selected Age Groups: 2050 (Percent of each age group's resident population as of July 1) Age Non-Hispanic Non-Hispanic Non-Hispanic Non-Hispanic Hispanic White alone Black alone Asian alone all other races (any race) Total Total Under 5 years to 17 years to 24 years to 44 years to 64 years years and over to 74 years to 84 years years and over Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2008 National Projections Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

59 Population in Texas by Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and Projections of the Population in Texas by Race/Ethnicity from 2010 to 2040 Year Anglo Black Hispanic Other Total ,074,716 2,421,653 6,669, ,785 20,851,820 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration ,331,872 2,627,276 8,060, ,198 22,802, ,381,128 2,771,387 9,336, ,654 24,330, ,171,420 2,823,280 10,576, ,107 25,449, ,733,052 2,796,629 11,662, ,129 26,085,070 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of ,533,974 2,754,744 9,080, ,458 24,330, ,796,493 3,052,401 11,882,998 1,273,896 28,005, ,789,298 3,268,616 15,140,100 1,632,575 31,830, ,525,112 3,403,169 18,804,298 2,028,622 35,761,201 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to ,739,988 2,888,448 10,252,220 1,177,909 26,058, ,227,547 3,361,700 15,226,387 1,921,059 32,736, ,442,107 3,783,673 21,871,386 3,020,458 41,117, ,376,308 4,140,673 30,604,622 4,585,897 51,707,500 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to ,369,946 2,778,528 9,827,743 1,129,429 25,105, ,461,192 3,106,273 13,922,261 1,762,813 30,252, ,299,159 3,355,344 19,032,000 2,646,377 36,332, ,899,933 3,523,778 25,325,641 3,832,576 43,581,928

60 Percent Change for Selected Time Periods for Projected Population in Texas by Race/Ethnicity Under Alternative Scenarios of Age/Sex and Race/Ethnicity-Specific Net Migration Period Anglo Black Hispanic Other Total Assuming Zero Net Migration Assuming Net Migration Equal to One-Half of Assuming Net Migration Equal to Assuming Net Migration Equal to

61 Percent of Population in Texas by Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and Projections of the Population in Texas by Race/Ethnicity from 2010 to 2040 Year Anglo Black Hispanic Other Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to

62 Texas Counties with 50 Percent or More of Their Total Population That is Anglo in 2000 and Projected for 2040 Under Alternative Projection Scenarios Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

63 Percent of Population by Age Group and Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and Projected Percent of Population by Age and Race/Ethnicity from 2020 to 2040 for Texas Under Alternative Scenarios of Age/Sex and Race/Ethnicity-Specific Net Migration Age Non-Hispanic Group White Black Hispanic Other Total All Scenarios < Assuming Rates of Zero Migration < <

64 Dallas-Forth Worth-Arlington MSA Using projections

65 Population by Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and Projections of the Population by Race/Ethnicity from 2010 to 2040 Under Alternative Scenarios of Age/Sex and Race/Ethnicity-Specific Net Migration for the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington Metropolitan Statistical Area Year Anglo Black Hispanic Other Total ,084, ,324 1,117, ,648 5,161,544 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration ,218, ,877 1,396, ,654 5,682, ,261, ,127 1,652, ,486 6,051, ,215, ,866 1,923, ,535 6,308, ,069, ,680 2,162, ,114 6,398,674 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of ,302, ,565 1,703, ,243 6,197, ,457, ,841 2,452, ,100 7,340, ,545,417 1,072,419 3,432, ,977 8,648, ,560,672 1,145,744 4,640, ,059 10,106,814 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to ,408, ,181 2,069, ,125 6,806, ,735,145 1,123,101 3,603, ,861 9,159, ,036,244 1,344,982 6,007,551 1,133,394 12,522, ,304,799 1,575,096 9,594,010 1,776,129 17,250,034 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to ,354, ,934 1,958, ,956 6,570, ,648, ,529 3,265, ,223 8,566, ,948,207 1,150,472 5,262,970 1,035,922 11,397, ,216,042 1,304,984 8,200,713 1,590,083 15,311,822

66 Percent of Population by Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and Projections of the Population by Race/Ethnicity from 2010 to 2040 Under Alternative Scenarios of Age/Sex and Race/Ethnicity-Specific Net Migration for the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington Metropolitan Statistical Area Year Anglo Black Hispanic Other Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to

67 Percent of Population by Age Group and Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and Projected Percent of Population by Age and Race/Ethnicity from 2020 to 2040 Under Alternative Scenarios of Age/Sex and Race/Ethnicity-Specific Net Migration for the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington Metropolitan Statistical Area Age Group Anglo Black Hispanic Other Total All Scenarios < Assuming Rates of Zero Migration < <

68 Dallas County Using projections

69 Population by Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and Projections of the Population by Race/Ethnicity from 2010 to 2040 Under Alternative Scenarios of Age/Sex and Race/Ethnicity-Specific Net Migration for Dallas County Year Anglo Black Hispanic Other Total , , , ,524 2,218,899 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration ,007, , , ,717 2,451, , , , ,343 2,616, , ,601 1,153, ,124 2,751, , ,022 1,303, ,609 2,823,240 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of , , , ,174 2,563, , ,664 1,383, ,943 2,941, , ,993 1,884, ,753 3,396, , ,274 2,474, ,456 3,919,295 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to , ,671 1,168, ,833 2,699, , ,121 1,907, ,981 3,407, , ,860 2,950, ,957 4,422, , ,621 4,324, ,010 5,799,173 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to , ,345 1,024, ,756 2,381, , ,128 1,442, ,630 2,593, , ,820 1,902, ,575 2,860, , ,948 2,352, ,039 3,143,670

70 Percent of Population by Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and Projections of the Population by Race/Ethnicity from 2010 to 2040 Under Alternative Scenarios of Age/Sex and Race/Ethnicity-Specific Net Migration for Dallas County Year Anglo Black Hispanic Other Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to

71 Percent of Population by Age Group and Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and Projected Percent of Population by Age and Race/Ethnicity from 2020 to 2040 Under Alternative Scenarios of Age/Sex and Race/Ethnicity-Specific Net Migration for Dallas County Age Group Anglo Black Hispanic Other Total All Scenarios < Assuming Rates of Zero Migration < <

72 Tarrant County Using projections

73 Population by Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and Projections of the Population by Race/Ethnicity from 2010 to 2040 Under Alternative Scenarios of Age/Sex and Race/Ethnicity-Specific Net Migration for Tarrant County Year Anglo Black Hispanic Other Total , , ,290 64,588 1,446,219 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration , , ,926 75,436 1,585, , , ,573 81,964 1,685, , , ,759 86,618 1,752, , , ,438 89,048 1,772,904 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of , , ,915 95,407 1,662, , , , ,668 1,896, , , , ,901 2,153, , ,107 1,152, ,451 2,438,486 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to , , , ,380 1,748, , , , ,122 2,176, , ,174 1,433, ,315 2,788, , ,803 2,204, ,639 3,658,763 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to , , , ,240 1,800, , , , ,675 2,295, , ,925 1,535, ,584 2,981, , ,859 2,345, ,373 3,917,570

74 Percent of Population by Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and Projections of the Population by Race/Ethnicity from 2010 to 2040 Under Alternative Scenarios of Age/Sex and Race/Ethnicity- Specific Net Migration for Tarrant County Year Anglo Black Hispanic Other Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to

75 TEXAS EDUCATION Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

76 Enrollment and Change in Enrollment of Economically Disadvantaged and All Students by Ethnicity in Texas Public Schools, and School Years Enrollment 10-Year Change Proportion Race/Ethnicity Numeric Percent Economically Disadvantaged White 359, , , African American 369, , , Other 36,734 66,874 30, Hispanic 1,190,363 1,866, , Total 1,956,000 2,853, , Total White 1,727,733 1,615, , African American 576, , , Other 114, ,992 84, Hispanic 1,582,538 2,354, , Total 4,002,227 4,847, , Source: Texas Education Agency, Enrollment in Texas Public Schools,

77 Total Public School Students by Race/Ethnicity in the 10 Largest* School Districts in Texas, and African American (%) Hispanic (%) Asian/Pacific Islander (%) Native American (%) Total Enrollment District/County/School Year White (%) Houston ISD (Harris) , ,245 Dallas ISD (Dallas) , ,162 Cypress-Fairbanks ISD (Harris) , ,097 Northside ISD (Bexar) , ,581 Austin ISD (Travis) , ,697 Fort Worth ISD ( Tarrant) , ,651 Fort Bend ISD (Fort Bend) , ,948 North East ISD (Bexar) , ,604 Arlington ISD (Tarrant) , ,484 El Paso ISD (El Paso) , ,330 *Largest enrollment based on school year Source: Data compiled by the Texas State Data Center from Texas Education Agency, Academic Excellence Indicator System (AEIS) District Profiles