The Changing Population of Texas and San Antonio. Masters Leadership Program October 10, 2012 San Antonio, TX

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1 The Changing Population of Texas and San Antonio Masters Leadership Program October 10, 2012 San Antonio, TX

2 Growing States, Population* 2010 Population* Numerical Change Percent Change United States 281,421, ,745,538 27,323, % Texas 20,851,820 25,145,561 4,293, % California 33,871,648 37,253,956 3,382, % Florida 15,982,378 18,801,310 2,818, % Georgia 8,186,453 9,687,653 1,501, % North Carolina 8,049,313 9,535,483 1,486, % Arizona 5,130,632 6,392,017 1,261, % 65% (2.8 million) of this change can be attributed to growth of the Hispanic population Population values are decennial census counts for April 1 for 2000 and Source: U.S. Census Bureau and 2010 Census Count. 2

3 Year* Total Population and Components of Population Change in Texas, Population Numerical Change Percent Change Percent Change Due to Natural Increase ,711, Net Migration ,579,677 1,868, ,196,730 1,617, ,229,191 3,032, ,986,510 2,757, ,851,820 3,865, ,782,302 3,930, ,145,561 4,293, ,674, , * All values for the decennial dates are for April 1 st of the indicated census year. Values for 2009 and 2011 are for July 1 as estimated by the U.S. Census Bureau. Source: Derived from U.S. Census Bureau Estimates for dates indicated by the Texas State Data Center, University of Texas at San Antonio. Note: Residual values are not presented in this table. 3

4 Estimated Annual Net Migration to Texas, 2000 to , ,000 International State-to-State 150, ,000 50, to to to to to to to to to 2009 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census 2009 Estimates 4

5 Percent of Migrants to Texas between 2000 and 2009 by Race and Ethnicity 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 5% 23% 28% 44% 18% 8% 15% 50% 24% Net domestic International migration migration (848,702 migrants ) (933,083 migrants) 52% of all migrants were international 12% 40% 33% Total 67% of all migrants Other Black Hispanic White Sources: Percentages of domestic and international migrants by race and ethnicity derived from the American Community Survey. Total numbers of domestic and international migrants between are from Table 4. Cumulative Estimates of the Components of Resident Population Change for the United States, Regions, States, and Puerto Rico: April 1, 2000 to July 5 1, 2009, U.S. Census Bureau

6 Legend Estimated domestic migration ( ) by county as a percentage of 2000 population -20 to -45% -19 to -10% -9 to -5% -4 to 0% 1 to 5 % 6 to 20% 21 to 30% 31 to 65% Source: Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau, March 19, Map produced by the Texas State Data Center 6

7 Estimated international migration ( ) by county as a percentage of 2000 population Legend 0-1% 1-2.5% % 3.5-5% 5-10% Source: Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau, March 19, Map produced by the Texas State Data Center 7

8 8

9 9

10 States with Largest Estimated Unauthorized Immigrant Populations, 2010 State Estimate (thousands) Range California 2,550 (2,350-2,750) Texas 1,650 (1,450-1,850) Florida 825 ( ) New York 625 ( ) New Jersey 550 ( ) Illinois 525 ( ) Georgia 425 ( ) Arizona 400 ( ) 6.5% of Texas 2010 Population Source: Pew Hispanic Center estimates based on residual methodology applied to March Supplements to the Current Population Survey (February 1, 2011). 10

11 Texas Racial and Ethnic Composition, 2000 and Hispanic or Latino 32% NH White 53% Hispanic or Latino 38% NH White 45% NH Other 4% NH Black 11% NH Other 6% NH Black 11% Source: U.S. Census Bureau and 2010 Census count

12 Population Under 1 year 4 years 8 years 12 years 16 years 20 years 24 years 28 years 32 years 36 years 40 years 44 years 48 years 52 years 56 years 60 years 64 years 68 years 72 years 76 years 80 years 84 years 88 years 92 years 96 years 100 to 104 Texas White (non-hispanic) and Hispanic Populations by Age, White (non-hispanic) Hispanic Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1 Age 12

13 Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010 Male White, Non-Hispanic Male Hispanic Male Black, Non-Hispanic Male Asian, Non-Hispanic Male Other, Non Hispanic Female White, Non-Hispanic Female Hispanic Female Black, Non-Hispanic Female Asian, Non-Hispanic Female Other, Non Hispanic 100 to 104 years 95 years 90 years 85 years 80 years 75 years 70 years 65 years 60 years 55 years 50 years 45 years 40 years 35 years 30 years 25 years 20 years 15 years 10 years 5 years Under 1 year 200, , ,000 50, , , , ,000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1 13

14 Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010 Male White, Non-Hispanic Female White, Non-Hispanic 100 to 104 years 95 years 90 years 85 years 80 years 75 years 70 years 65 years 60 years 55 years 50 years 45 years 40 years 35 years 30 years 25 years 20 years 15 years 10 years 5 years Under 1 year 200, , ,000 50, , , , ,000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1 14

15 Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010 Male Hispanic Male Black, Non-Hispanic Male Asian, Non-Hispanic Male Other, Non Hispanic Female Hispanic Female Black, Non-Hispanic Female Asian, Non-Hispanic Female Other, Non Hispanic 100 to 104 years 95 years 90 years 85 years 80 years 75 years 70 years 65 years 60 years 55 years 50 years 45 years 40 years 35 years 30 years 25 years 20 years 15 years 10 years 5 years Under 1 year 200, , ,000 50, , , , ,000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1 15

16 Legend co48_d00 'PROJECTIONS X$'.totpop ,000 10,001-50,000 50, , , , ,001-1,000,000 1,000,001-4,100,000 Total Population by County, 2010 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census 16

17 Change of the Total Population by County, 2000 to 2010 Legend co48_d00 'PROJECTIONS X$'.totpopch0010-3, ,000 10,001-50,000 50, , , ,000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2000 and 2010 Decennial Census 17

18 Water Population increase for Texas was 20.6% during this period Percent Change of Total Population in Texas Counties, 'PROJECTIONS X$'.pctch %-0% 1%-10% % 25.1%-50% 50.1%-82% Physicians per 1,000 Population 2010 'PROJECTIONS X$'.difphys -3 to to to Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 and 2010 Decennial Census 18

19 Projected Population Growth in Texas, Year Source: Texas State Data Center 2008 Population Projections 19

20 Projected Racial and Ethnic Percent, Texas, % 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Anglo Black Hispanic Other 0% Source: Texas State Data Center 2008 Population Projections, Migration Scenario 20

21 Projected population by county, Texas, Population P_ Source: Texas State Data Center, vintage 2008 Population Projections, Migration Scenario 21

22 Percent Projected Change of Total Population in Texas Counties,

23 The 10 Counties with the Largest Numeric Increase from April 1, 2010, to July 1, 2011 Numeric Increase 1. Harris, Texas 88, Los Angeles, Calif. 70, Maricopa, Ariz. 63, Miami-Dade, Fla. 58, Riverside, Calif. 49, Dallas, Texas 47, Orange, Calif. 45, San Diego, Calif. 44, Bexar, Texas 41, Tarrant, Texas 40,776 Texas contains eight of the 25 counties with the highest numerical gains Source: U.S. Census Bureau,

24 Population Growth in San Antonio MSA, ( Migration Scenario) County Atascosa 25,055 30,533 38,628 44,911 68,909 Bandera 7,084 10,562 17,645 20,485 26,829 Bexar 988,800 1,185,394 1,392,931 1,714,773 1,991,001 Comal 36,446 51,832 78, , ,832 Guadalupe 46,708 64,873 89, , ,754 Kendall 10,635 14,589 23,743 33,410 66,124 Medina 23,164 27,312 39,304 46,006 54,466 Wilson 16,756 22,650 32,408 42,918 92,071 Total 1,154,648 1,407,745 1,711,703 2,142,508 2,751,986 Sources: U.S. Census Bureau Counts; 2040: State Data Center Migration Scenario Projection

25 Population Growth in San Antonio MSA by Area, County Number of Inhabitants by Area Bexar 988,800 1,185,394 1,392,931 1,714,773 1,991,001 Others 165, , , , ,985 Total 1,154,648 1,407,745 1,711,703 2,142,508 2,751,986 Percent of Population in Area Bexar Others Total Sources: U.S. Census Bureau Counts; 2040: State Data Center Migration Scenario Projection

26 Components of Change for San Antonio MSA, 2000 to 2009 Population Births- Migration County Change Deaths Foreign Domestic Atascosa 38,628 44,633 6,005 3, ,727 Bandera 17,645 20,560 2, ,689 Bexar 1,392,931 1,651, , ,886 29,689 96,635 Comal 78, ,525 36,504 4, ,179 Guadalupe 89, ,432 32,409 6,284 1,532 24,888 Kendall 23,743 34,053 10, ,171 Medina 39,304 44,728 5,424 2, ,356 Wilson 32,408 40,749 8,341 1, ,802 Total 1,711,703 2,072, , ,446 33, ,447 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census Counts (2000); Estimate (2009)

27 Percent Population Change, Bexar County and Texas 25% 20% 23% 21% 15% 10% 5% 0% Bexar County Texas Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 and 2010 Decennial Census 27

28 Percent of the Total Population by Ethnicity and Country of Origin, Bexar County, % 60% 58.7% 50% 40% 49.2% 41.3% 30% 20% 10% 8.2% 0% Hispanic or Latino (of any race) Mexican Puerto Rican 1.1% 0.2% Cuban Other Hispanic or Latino Not Hispanic or Latino Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Decennial Census 28

29 Percent of the population 5 and over who speak English less than very well by state, Source: American Community Survey, 2009

30 Percent of the population 5 and over who speak Spanish at home, Source: American Community Survey, 2009

31 Percent of the population 5 and over who speak Spanish at home, Percent aged 5 years plus who speak Spanish at 0-10% 10-25% 25-50% 50-75% 75-96% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-Year Sample

32 Number of the households that are Spanish linguistically isolated, Percent of households spanish linguistically isolated Spanlingiso 0-1,500 1,501-5,000 5,001-10,000 10,001-50,000 50, ,000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-Year Sample

33 National Geographic, Esri, DeLorme, NAVTEQ, UNEP-WCMC, USGS, NASA, ESA, Percent Labor Force Employed in Professional, Legend Scientific, Management tl_2010_48_county10 Occupations, Texas Census tl_2010_48_county10 Tracts, tl_2010_48_tract10 Bandera Kendall Comal OcMgmtBusSciArts 0-15% Guadalupe 16-30% Ha 31-40% Bexar 41-50% Medina 51-60% Wilson Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-Year Sample, Atascosa

34 Hays Percent Labor Force Kendall Employed in Comal Production, Transportation, and Material Moving Bandera Legend Occupations, Texas Census Tracts, tl_2010_48_tract10 Production, transportation, and material moving occupations 0-5% 6-10% 11-20% 21-30% 30-40% Medina Bexar Guadalupe Wilson Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-Year Sample, Atascosa Frio National Geographic, Esri, DeLorme, NAVTEQ, UNEP-WCMC, USGS, NASA, ESA, METI, NRCAN, GEBCO, NOAA, ipc

35 Hays Percent of the Labor Force Unemployed, Texas Census Tracts, Legend tl_2010_48_tract10 Bandera Kendall Comal UnemployedPCT 0-3% % Guadalupe % % % Bexar NatGeo_World_Map Medina Wilson Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-Year Sample, Atascosa Frio National Geographic, Esri, DeLorme, NAVTEQ, UNEP-WCMC, USGS, NASA, ESA, METI, NRCAN, GEBCO, NOAA, ipc

36 Hays Percent Households Receiving SNAPP Benefits, Texas Census Tracts, Legend tl_2010_48_tract10 SNAPPct Bandera Kendall Comal 0-5% 6-10% 11-15% Guadalupe 16-25% 26-30% Bexar Medina Wilson Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-Year Sample, Atascosa Frio National Geographic, Esri, DeLorme, NAVTEQ, UNEP-WCMC, USGS, NASA, ESA, METI, NRCAN, GEBCO, NOAA, ipc

37 Percent of the Population that is African American, Texas Legend Census Tracts, tl_2010_48_county10 Bandera Kendall Comal tl_2010_48_tract10 NHBlackPCT 0-5% Guadalupe % Hay % % % NatGeo_World_Map Medina Bexar Wilson Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-Year Sample, Atascosa Frio National Geographic, Esri, DeLorme, NAVTEQ, UNEP-WCMC, USGS, NASA, ESA, METI, NRCAN, GEBCO, NOAA, ipc

38 National Geographic, Esri, DeLorme, NAVTEQ, UNEP-WCMC, USGS, NASA, ESA, Hay Percent of the Population that is Hispanic, Texas Census Tracts, Bandera Kendall Comal Legend tl_2010_48_tract10 HispanicPCT 0-20% Guadalupe % % 50,1-75% Bexar % Medina Wilson Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-Year Sample, Atascosa

39 Educational Attainment in Texas, 2010 Level of Educational Attainment High school diploma or equivalency or greater Percent of persons aged 25 years and older State Ranking 80.7% 49/50 (tied with CA) Bachelors or greater 25.9% 31 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey,

40 Race/Ethnic Composition by Education Level aged 25 years and more, Texas, % 9% 19% 15% 6% 8% 67% 71% Less Than High School Source: Derived from 2009 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates by the Office of the State Demographer. College and Greater 40

41 Projected Percent of Labor Force by Educational Attainment in Texas, 2000 and 2040 Percent No High School Diploma High School Graduate Some College Bachelor's Degree Graduate/Prof. Degree * Proj ections are shown for the 1.0 scenario

42 Median Household Income by County, $18,000-30,000 $ 30,000-35,000 $ 35,000-40,000 $40,000-50,000 $ 50,000-76,000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 3-Year Sample

43 Percent of Population Less than 18 Years of Age, Living Below Poverty During Past 12 Months, % 20-30% 30-40% 40-55% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 3-Year Sample

44 % Health Insurance Coverage by Ethnic Group and Type, Texas, Latino Anglo Black Asian Other None Public Private Source: American Community Survey Microdata,

45 % Health Insurance Coverage by Immigrant Status & Type, Texas, Native Naturalized Non-Citizen None Public Private 8 Source: American Community Survey Microdata,

46 Teen Birth Rate by State, 2010 Rank State Birth rate per 1,000 women ages Mississippi 55 2 New Mexico Arkansas Texas Oklahoma Louisiana Kentucky District of Columbia West Virginia Alabama 43.6 Source: National Center for Health Statistics at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 46

47 Projected Increase in Obesity in Texas by Ethnicity, 2006 to 2040 Source: Office of the State Demographer projections, using migration scenario population projections 47

48 Projected Number of Adults with Diabetes by Race and Ethnicity, Texas, ,000,000 6,000,000 4,000,000 2,000,000 Total Latino Anglo African American Other 0 Source: Office of the State Demographer,

49 Demographics and Destiny 49

50 Contact Lloyd Potter, Ph.D. Office: (512) or (210) Internet: 50

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