Demographic Characteristics and Trends in Texas and North Texas: Population and Infrastructure

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1 Demographic Characteristics and Trends in Texas and North Texas: Population and Infrastructure Plano Chamber of Commerce April 1, 2015 Austin, Texas

2 Total Population and Components of Population Change in Texas, Year* Population Numeric Change Annual Percent Change ,711, ,579,677 1,868, ,196,730 1,617, ,229,191 3,032, ,986,510 2,757, ,851,820 3,865, ,145,561 4,293, ,060, , ,448, , ,956, , * All values for the decennial dates are for April 1 st of the indicated census year. Values for 2012 and 2014 are for July 1 as estimated by the U.S. Census Bureau. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census Counts and Population Estimates Note: Residual values are not presented in this table. 2

3 Texas Population Growth ,000,000 25,000,000 20,000,000 15,000,000 10,000,000 5,000, Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census Counts

4 County Population Change, Texas, Total Population by County

5 Estimated Change of the Total Population by County, Texas, 2010 to 2014 Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates, 2014 Vintage. 5

6 Estimated Percent Change of the Total Population by County, Texas, 2010 to 2014 Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates, 2014 Vintage. 6

7 30% of the top 40 fastest growing counties in the United States are in Texas, 2013 to 2014 U.S. Rank Geography Population Estimate Change, 2013 to Number Percent 5 HaysCounty, Texas 176, ,025 8, Fort Bend County, Texas 654, ,345 30, Comal County, Texas 118, ,694 4, Andrews County, Texas 16,808 17, Montgomery County, Texas 499, ,947 19, Williamson County, Texas 471, ,250 18, Kendall County, Texas 37,469 38,880 1, Ward County, Texas 11,245 11, Denton County, Texas 729, ,363 24, Collin County, Texas 858, ,241 26, Aransas County, Texas 24,299 24, Rockwall County, Texas 85,290 87,809 2, Waller, County 45,484 46,820 1, Ector County, Texas 149, ,904 4, Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2014 Population Estimates Counties in bold had growth associated with oil and gas extraction. 7

8 More than 1/4 of U.S. counties in the top 40 for numeric growth are in Texas, U.S. Rank Geography Population Estimate Change, 2013 to Number Percent 1 Harris County, Texas 4,352,752 4,441,370 88, Bexar County, Texas 1,822,154 1,855,866 33, Dallas County, Texas 2,486,083 2,518,638 32, Tarrant County, Texas 1,913,943 1,945,360 31, Fort Bend County, Texas 654, ,345 30, Travis County, Texas 1,122,748 1,151,145 28, Collin County, Texas 858, ,241 26, Denton County, Texas 729, ,363 24, Montgomery County, Texas 499, ,947 19, Williamson County, Texas 471, ,250 18, Hidalgo County 818, ,073 12, Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2014 Population Estimates 8

9 Components of Population Change by Percent in Texas, Migration Natural Increase 10.5% 13.3% 58.5% 34.1% 50.3% 46.3% 89.5% 86.7% 41.5% 65.9% 49.7% 53.7% 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates

10 Estimated Number of Net Migrants by County, Texas, 2013 to 2014 Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates, 2014 Vintage. 10

11 Net Migration Percent of Population Change from Net Migration Ft. Worth Dallas Midland Austin San Antonio Houston 11

12 2,000,000 1,800,000 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000, , , , ,000 0 Number of Annual Immigrants Admitted to the United States, FY Fiscal Year Source: U.S. Department of Homeland Security 2013

13 Number of Non Citizen Immigrants by World Area of Birth in the Top 5 Immigration Receiving States, Illinois 3,884 7,054 10,957 22,721 Florida 11,730 11,002 15,651 59,220 30,532 New York Texas 10,045 8,331 8,814 17,403 30,982 40,835 61,418 Latin America Asia Europe Africa and Other 56,831 California 11,660 18, ,835 Source: 5-Year ACS PUMS

14 Shares of Recent Non Citizen Immigrants to Texas from Mexico, India, China, and All Other Countries, China India Mexico All Others % 11.7% 37.1% 45.1% % 8.6% 45.4% 42.1% % 6.5% 39.4% 48.1% % 6.9% 39.5% 52.3% % 5.8% 49.1% 40.9% % 7.0% 51.3% 39.2% % 5.7% 54.9% 36.9% % 5.3% 56.8% 37.1% Source: 1-Year ACS PUMS

15 Inflows to Texas from Top 10 Sending States, 2013 Top 10 Senders, Numerically Top 10 Senders, Percentage wise California 66,318 New Mexico 30% Florida 32,619 Louisiana 29% Oklahoma 29,169 Oklahoma 29% Louisiana 29,042 Arkansas 22% Illinois 28,900 Wyoming 17% New Mexico 22,695 Colorado 11% Georgia 19,988 California 11% New York 19,935 Arizona 11% Arizona 19,224 Kansas 10% Colorado 18,979 Mississippi 10% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, State to State Flows 2013; Inflows to Texas 15

16 Texas Leads U.S. Job Growth, Washington 320,000 New York 550,000 California 810,000 North Carolina 340,000 Texas 2,180,000

17 Texas Leads U.S. Job Growth, Percentage of Total U.S. Job Gains Attributable to each State 29% Texas 11% California 7% 4% 4% New York North Carolina Washington

18 Texas Racial and Ethnic Composition, 2000 and Hispanic or Latino 32% NH White 53% Hispanic or Latino 38% NH White 45% NH Other 4% NH Black 11% NH Other 6% NH Black 11% Source: U.S. Census Bureau and 2010 Census count

19 Texas White (non Hispanic) and Hispanic Populations by Age, White (non Hispanic) Hispanic Population Under 1 year 4 years 8 years 12 years 16 years 20 years 24 years 28 years 32 years 36 years 40 years 44 years 48 years 52 years 56 years 60 years 64 years 68 years 72 years 76 years 80 years 84 years 88 years 92 years 96 years 100 to 104 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1 Age 19

20 Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010 Male White, Non Hispanic Female White, Non Hispanic 100 to 104 years 95 years 90 years 85 years 80 years 75 years 70 years 65 years 60 years 55 years 50 years 45 years 40 years 35 years 30 years 25 years 20 years 15 years 10 years 5 years Under 1 year 200, , ,000 50, , , , ,000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1

21 Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010 Male Hispanic Male Black, Non Hispanic Male Asian, Non Hispanic Male Other, Non Hispanic Female Hispanic Female Black, Non Hispanic Female Asian, Non Hispanic Female Other, Non Hispanic 100 to 104 years 95 years 90 years 85 years 80 years 75 years 70 years 65 years 60 years 55 years 50 years 45 years 40 years 35 years 30 years 25 years 20 years 15 years 10 years 5 years Under 1 year 200, , ,000 50, , , , , Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1

22 Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010 Male White, Non Hispanic Male Hispanic Male Black, Non Hispanic Male Asian, Non Hispanic Male Other, Non Hispanic Female White, Non Hispanic Female Hispanic Female Black, Non Hispanic Female Asian, Non Hispanic Female Other, Non Hispanic 100 to 104 years 95 years 90 years 85 years 80 years 75 years 70 years 65 years 60 years 55 years 50 years 45 years 40 years 35 years 30 years 25 years 20 years 15 years 10 years 5 years Under 1 year 200, , ,000 50, , , , , Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1

23 Migration to Collin County,

24 Inflows to Collin County from Top Sending Regions, 2013 Top 10 Sending Counties, 2013 Top 10 Sending States, 2013 Dallas County, TX 15,101 California 3,140 Denton County, TX 5,647 Florida 2,223 Asia 3,513 Oklahoma 1,177 Tarrant County, TX 2,190 Louisiana 1,061 Harris County, TX 857 Illinois 1,046 Los Angeles County, CA 813 New York 706 Grayson County, TX 668 Arizona 684 Bexar County, TX 658 Colorado 625 Africa 592 Pennsylvania 612 Hillsborough County, FL 574 Virginia 563 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, County to County Flows,

25 Percent of the population aged 65 years and older, census tracts, Percent aged 65 and older 0% - 10% 11% - 15% Denton Frisco McKinney Fairview Allen 16% - 20% Plano 21% - 30% 31% - 79% Rowlett Fort Worth Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5 Year Sample

26 Percent of population aged 25 years and older with high school degree or higher, census tracts, Percent high school graduate or higher 16% - 50% 51% - 65% 66% - 80% 81% - 90% Denton Frisco Plano McKinney Fairview Allen 91% - 100% Rowlett Fort Worth Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5 Year Sample

27 Percent of housing units built in 2005 and later, census tracts, Built 2005 or later 0% - 10% 11% - 20% 21% - 30% 31% - 50% 51% - 100% Denton Frisco Plano McKinney Fairview Allen Rowlett Fort Worth Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5 Year Sample

28 Percent of the population that is foreign born, census tracts, Percent Foreign born 0% - 10% Denton McKinney 11% - 20% 21% - 30% 31% - 40% Frisco Plano Fairview Allen 41% - 75% Rowlett Fort Worth Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5 Year Sample

29 Percent of the population aged 5 years and older who speak a language other than English at home, census tracts, Language other than English Denton McKinney 0% - 20% 21% - 35% 36% - 50% Frisco Plano Fairview Allen 51% - 75% 76% - 100% Rowlett Fort Worth Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5 Year Sample

30 Travel Time to Work Percentage of Workers with Drive Times Longer than 25 Mins.

31 Mean travel time to work (minutes), census tracts, Denton McKinney Mean travel time to work (minutes) Frisco Plano Fairview Allen Rowlett Fort Worth Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5 Year Sample

32 Projected Population Growth in Texas, Zero Migration 0.5 Migration 1.0 Migration Millions Source: Texas State Data Center 2014 Population Projections 32

33 Projected Racial and Ethnic Percent, Texas, NH White NH Black Hispanic NH Other Millions Source: Texas State Data Center 2014 Population Projections, Half Migration Scenario 33

34 Texas Population Change by Age Group, Male 2050 Male 2010 Female 2010 Female 2050 Age Under 5 1,500,000 1,000, , ,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 Source: Texas State Data Center 2014 Population Projections, Half 2000 to 2010 Migration Scenario

35 Trends in Educational Attainment of Persons in the Labor Force (25 64 Years of Age) in Texas by Race/Ethnicity High School Graduates and Above 100% 95% 90% 85% 80% 75% 70% 65% White Black Hispanic Other 60% 55% 50% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, Public Use Micro Sample,

36 Percent of the Civilian Labor Force (ages 25 64) by Educational Attainment for 2011, 2030 Using Constant Rates, Texas 35.0% 30.0% 31.3% 29.9% 2011 ACS Percent of the Civilian Labor Force 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 15.0% 18.1% 23.8% 24.0% 20.1% 2030 Constant 2011 % 18.7% 9.8% 9.3% 5.0% 0.0% Less than High School High School or Equivalent Some College / Associate Degree Bachelor's Degree Graduate or Professional Degree Educational Attainment These should be going DOWN These should be going UP Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-Year PUMS. Texas State Data Center, 2012 Vintage Population Projections, 0.5 Migration Scenario 36

37 Percent of the Civilian Labor Force (ages 25 64) by Educational Attainment for 2011, and 2030 Using Trended Rates, Texas 40.0% 35.0% 31.3% 34.3% 2011 ACS Percent of the Civilian Labor Force 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 15.0% 11.4% 23.8% 20.4% 2030 Trended ( Trend) 22.1% 20.1% 11.8% 9.8% 5.0% 0.0% Less than High School High School or Equivalent Some College / Associate Degree Bachelor's Degree Graduate or Professional Degree Educational Attainment These should be going DOWN These should be going UP Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-Year PUMS. Texas State Data Center, 2012 Vintage Population Projections, 0.5 Migration Scenario 37

38 Summary Population continues to grow quickly though growth is geographically unequal. Population growth is being driven by Hispanic population. The future Texas labor force will be largely Hispanic. Hispanics tend to have lower levels of educational attainment than other groups. Geographic distribution of industries and occupations is variable. Demographic and infrastructure challenges may have serious implications for future Texas economy. 38

39 Demographics & Destiny 39

40 Contact Lila Valencia, Ph.D. Office: (512) Internet: 40

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