Population and Education in Texas: Implications of Population Change and Immigration for The United States and Texas in the 21 st Century

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1 Population and Education in Texas: Implications of Population Change and Immigration for The United States and Texas in the 21 st Century Taken from: Steve Murdock (2006) Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic Research The University of Texas at San Antonio

2 Ten Fastest Growing States in Numerical Terms in the United States, Numerical Percent Change Change State Population* Population* California 33,871,648 36,132,147 2,260, Texas 20,851,820 22,859,968 2,008, Florida 15,982,378 17,789,864 1,807, Georgia 8,186,453 9,072, , Arizona 5,130,632 5,939, , North Carolina 8,049,313 8,683, , Virginia 7,078,515 7,567, , Nevada 1,998,257 2,414, , Washington 5,894,121 6,287, , Colorado 4,301,261 4,665, , * Population values are decennial census counts for April 1 for 2000 and estimates for July 1 for Source: Derived from U.S. Bureau of the Census Estimates for dates indicated by the Texas State Data Center, University of Texas at San Antonio

3 Texas Rank Among States on Selected Characteristics of Race/Ethnicity Groups Texas Texas Comparison Group Value Rank Areas By Percent of Total Population in 2000 Anglo Ahead of Hawaii; 30.1 Ahead of New Mexico; 45.7 Ahead of California; 48.4 Black Highest is Mississippi; 36.4 Lowest is Montana; 0.4 Hispanic New Mexico; 42.1 California; 32.4 Other Highest is Hawaii; 60.5 Lowest is West Virginia; 0.9

4 Numerical Change in Population by Race/Ethnicity in Texas for and ,500,000 2,329,761 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,354,081 1,000, , , , , , , ,220 0 Anglo Black Hispanic Other

5 Projected Proportion of Population by Race/Ethnicity in Texas, * 70.0 Percent Anglo Black Hispanic Other *Using U.S. Census count for 2000 and Texas State Data Center 1.0 population projection scenario for

6 Educational Attainment in 2000 in Texas for Persons 25+ Years of Age By Race/Ethnicity Percent < High School High School Some College Hispanic Black Anglo Asian College or More

7 Projected Percent of Public Elementary and Secondary Enrollment by Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and Projections for 2040* Percent Projection Year Anglo Black Hispanic Other * Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario

8 Projected Percent of Public Community College Enrollment by Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and Projections for 2040* 70.0 Percent Projection Year Anglo Black Hispanic Other * Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario

9 Projected Percent of Public University Enrollment by Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and Projections for 2040* Percent Projection Year Anglo Black Hispanic Other * Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario

10 Future Demands for Specific Programs 76.2% Elementary and Secondary Enrollment Growth Bilingual/ESL 186.8% Economically Disadvantaged Gifted and Talented 48.5% 119.9% Immigrants Limited English Proficiency (LEP) 183% 188.1% Special Education 64.7% Title 1 Career and Technology Education 69.9% 101.9% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% Percent Change Source: The New Texas Challenge: Population Change and the Future of Texas

11 Ethnic Diversity of the Population, Householders, and Labor Force in Texas, 2000 and 2040* 53.1% 61.4% 58.4% 3.3% 3.0% 3.4% 11.6% 32.0% 11.4% 24.2% 10.7% 27.5% 2000 Population 2000 Householders 2000 Civilian Labor Force 7.9% 24.2% 9.0% 29.0% 7.9% 25.2% 8.8% 9.2% 8.2% 59.1% 52.8% 58.7% 2040 Population 2040 Householders 2040 Civilian Labor Force Anglo Black Hispanic Other * Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario

12 Ethnic Diversity of the Population Enrolled in Elementary and Secondary Schools and Colleges in Texas, 2000 and 2040* 43.2% 58.0% 14.4% 2.9% 5.7% 39.5% 10.7% 25.6% 2000 Public Elementary and Secondary 2000 Public Colleges and Universities 8.3% 19.9% 8.1% 28.7% 66.3% 5.5% 50.9% 12.3% 2040 Public Elementary and Secondary 2040 Public Colleges and Universities Anglo Black Hispanic Other * Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario

13 Average (Mean) SAT Scores for College Bound Seniors in the United States in 2001 by Selected Characteristics SAT Score Mean Mean Characteristic Verbal Math All Students (N = 1,276,320) Race/Ethnicity: American Indian African American or Black Hispanic: Mexican American Puerto Rican Other Hispanic White Asian American or Pacific Islander Household Income: < $10, $10,000-20, $20,000-30, $30,000-40, $40,000-50, $50,000-60, $60,000-70, $70,000-80, $80, , > $100,

14 Immigrants: Who Are They and What are Their Effects

15 Foreign-Born and Native-Born Generations of Hispanics and Non-Hispanics in the United States, 2000 Generation Foreign-Born U.S.-Born Total Ethnic Identity (Self-Reported) First Generation Second+ Generations Number Not Hispanic N 18,706, ,511, ,217,426 % Hispanic N 15,786,304 19,418,176 35,204,480 % Mexican % , Puerto Rican a % , Cuban % , Dominican % Salvadoran, Guatemalan % , Central American, other % Columbian % Peruvian, Ecuadorian % South American, other % Other Spanish, Hispanic, Latino b % , Total N 34,492, ,929, ,421,906 % a Puerto Ricans born in Puerto Rico are classified as first generation ; those born in the U.S. mainland are classified as second+ generations b Persons leaving other blank but specifying their country of birth or ancestry in other census questions were assigned to the appropriate national-origin group. This occurred in about 2 million cases Source: 2000 U.S. Census, 5% Public Use Microdata Samples (PUMS) The Making of a People by Rubén G. Rumbaut in Chapter 2 in Hispanics and the Future of America, Marta Tienda and Faith Mitchell, eds National Research Council: The National Academies Press, Washington, D.C.

16 Decade of Arrival of Foreign-Born Hispanics and Non-Hispanics in the United States, 2000 Decade of U.S. Arrival Ethnic Identity Pre s 1970s 1980s 1990s Not Hispanic N 2,163,245 1,818,758 2,963,728 4,678,592 7,230,753 % Hispanic N 702,943 1,265,481 2,314,159 4,482,200 7,036,411 % Total N 2,866,188 3,084,239 5,277,887 9,160,792 14,267,164 % Source: 2000 U.S. Census, 5% PUMS The Making of a People by Rubén G. Rumbaut in Chapter 2 in Hispanics and the Future of America, Marta Tienda and Faith Mitchell, eds National Research Council: The National Academies Press, Washington, D.C.

17 Citizenship Status of Hispanics and Non- Hispanics in the United States, 2000 U.S. Citzenship Citizen by Naturalized Not a Ethnic Identity Birthright a Citizen Citizen Not Hispanic N 229,216,195 8,616,047 8,385,184 % Hispanic N 21,072,230 3,917,885 10,214,365 % Total N 250,288,425 12,533,932 18,599,549 % a Includes persons born in Puerto Rico and other U.S. territories and those born abroad with at least one parent who was a U.S. citizen Source: 2000 U.S. Census, 5% PUMS The Making of a People by Rubén G. Rumbaut in Chapter 2 in Hispanics and the Future of America, Marta Tienda and Faith Mitchell, eds National Research Council: The National Academies Press, Washington, D.C.

18 Language Spoken at Home of Foreign-Born and U.S.-Born Hispanics and Non-Hispanics, 2000 (Persons 5 Years and Older) First Generation (Foreign-Born) Second+ Generations (U.S.-Born) English All Other English All Other Ethnic Identity Only Spanish Languages Only Spanish Languages Not Hispanic N 5,780, ,778 12,313, ,899,620 3,110,915 6,380,528 % Hispanic N 984,087 14,422, ,506 5,787,871 10,167,640 66,913 % Total N 6,764,954 14,778,529 12,418, ,687,491 13,278,555 6,447,441 % Source: 2000 U.S. Census, 5% PUMS The Making of a People by Rubén G. Rumbaut in Chapter 2 in Hispanics and the Future of America, Marta Tienda and Faith Mitchell, eds National Research Council: The National Academies Press, Washington, D.C.

19 English Proficiency of Foreign-Born and U.S.-Born Hispanics and Non-Hispanics Who Speak a Language Other Than English at Home (Persons 5 Years and Older) First Generation (Foreign-Born) Second+ Generations (U.S.-Born) Ethnic Identity Very Well Well Not Well Very Well Well Not Well Not Hispanic N 6,422,750 3,618,000 2,640,980 7,248,659 1,368, ,628 % Hispanic N 4,359,787 3,492,497 6,676,279 7,580,619 1,851, ,037 % Total N 10,782,537 7,110,497 9,317,259 14,829,278 3,220,385 1,681,665 % Source: 2000 U.S. Census, 5% PUMS The Making of a People by Rubén G. Rumbaut in Chapter 2 in Hispanics and the Future of America, Marta Tienda and Faith Mitchell, eds National Research Council: The National Academies Press, Washington, D.C.

20 Educational Attainment of Foreign-Born and U.S.-Born Hispanics and Non-Hispanics in the United States, 2000 (Persons 25 Years and Older) First Generation (Foreign-Born) Second+ Generations (U.S.-Born) College College Less Than Graduate Less Than Graduate Ethnic Identity High School or More High School or More Not Hispanic N 3,213,973 5,388,741 23,821,393 37,132,874 % Hispanic N 6,724,296 1,007,105 1,964, ,691 % Mexican % Puerto Rican % Cuban % Dominican % Salvardoran, Guatamalan % Central American, other % Columbian % Peruvian, Ecuadorian % South American, other % Other Spanish, Hispanic, Latino % Total N 9,938,269 6,395,846 25,785,528 38,036,565 % Source: 2000 U.S. Census, 5% PUMS The Making of a People by Rubén G. Rumbaut in Chapter 2 in Hispanics and the Future of America, Marta Tienda and Faith Mitchell, eds National Research Council: The National Academies Press, Washington, D.C.

21 Occupational Status a of Foreign-Born and U.S.-Born Hispanics and Non- Hispanics in the United States, 2000 (Employed Persons 16 and Older) First Generation (Foreign-Born) Second+ Generations (U.S.-Born) Professional, Professional, Low-Wage Technical, Low-Wage Technical, Ethnic Identity Labor Managerial Labor Managerial Not Hispanic N 3,888,636 5,895,344 41,137,385 54,681,470 % Hispanic N 6,760,643 1,752,934 2,899,023 2,287,386 % Total N 10,649,279 7,648,278 44,036,408 56,968,856 % a Occupations ranked by their SEI (Duncan socioeconomic index) scores Source: 2000 U.S. Census, 5% PUMS The Making of a People by Rubén G. Rumbaut in Chapter 2 in Hispanics and the Future of America, Marta Tienda and Faith Mitchell, eds National Research Council: The National Academies Press, Washington, D.C.

22 Source: Jeffrey S. Passel. Unauthorized Migrants: Numbers and Characteristics Background Briefing Prepared for Task Force on Immigration and America s Future. Washington, D.C.: Pew Hispanic Center.

23 Source: Jeffrey S. Passel. Unauthorized Migrants: Numbers and Characteristics Background Briefing Prepared for Task Force on Immigration and America s Future. Washington, D.C.: Pew Hispanic Center.

24 Source: Jeffrey S. Passel. Unauthorized Migrants: Numbers and Characteristics Background Briefing Prepared for Task Force on Immigration and America s Future. Washington, D.C.: Pew Hispanic Center.

25 Percent of Workers in Selection Occupations in the United States Who Are Unauthorized Migrants, 2004 Occupation % Occupation % Drywall/ceiling tile installers... 27% Cement masons & finishers 22% Roofers 21% Construsction laborers 20% Painters, construction etc. 20% Brick/block/stone masons 19% Carpenters 12% Grounds maint. workers 26% Misc. agricultural workers 23% Hand packers & packagers 22% Graders & sorters, ag. prod. 22% Butchers/meat, poultry wrkrs 25% Dishwashers 24% Cooks 18% Dining & cafeteria attendants 14% Food prep. workers 13% Janitors & bldg. cleaners 12% Maids & housekeepers 22% Sewing machine operators 18% Cleaning/washing equip. oper 20% Packaging/filling mach. oper. 17% Metal/plastic workers, other 13% Source: Jeffrey S. Passel, Unauthorized Migrants: Numbers and Characteristics Background Briefing Prepared for Task Force on Immigration and America s Future. Washington D.C.: Pew Hispanic Center

26 Foreign-born share of employment by occupation Farming, fishing, and forestry Cleaning and maintenance Food preparation, serving Natural resources, const & maint. Computer and math Service Production, transportation Healthcare, technical Mngmt, professionals Education Legal Source: 2005, BLS

27 Wages of less-skilled workers are falling Real median weekly earnings by education level $/week 1000 BA degree & higher Some college, Associate degree High school diploma, no college Less than high school diploma Source: BLS

28 Native and foreign-born labor force change, by education College grad 5414 Some college 1483 High school grad -657 Foreign-born Native Less than high school Source: ; BLS, Haver Analytics Thousands

29 Native and foreign-born labor force change, by education College grad Some college High school grad Foreign-born Native Less than high school Source: ; BLS, Haver Analytics Thousands

30 Average Annual Household Income in Texas and the United States by Educational Attainment of Householder in 2000* Average Income $120,000 $102,410 $104,294 $100,000 $80,000 $80,950 $80,327 $60,000 $42,271 $44,068 $52,552 $54,467 $40,000 $30,412 $32,473 $20,000 $0 Less Than High School High School Graduate Some College or Associate Degree Bachelor's Degree Graduate/Professional Degree Texas United States *From Census 2000 Public Use Microdata Sample (1% File)

31 Percent of Persons 25 Years of Age or Older by Level of Educational Attainment and Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and Projected to 2040* Assuming Trends in Educational Attainment Rates Anglo < High School High School Some Coll/Assoc Bachelor's + Black < High School High School Some Coll/Assoc. Bachelor's + Hispanic < High School High School Some Coll/Assoc Bachelor's + Other < High School High School Some Coll/Assoc Bachelor's Percent *Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario