The Changing Population of Texas. BP Business Leaders November 8, 2012 Austin, TX

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1 The Changing Population of Texas BP Business Leaders November 8, 2012 Austin, TX

2 Growing States, Population* 2010 Population* Numerical Change Percent Change United States 281,421, ,745,538 27,323, % Texas 20,851,820 25,145,561 4,293, % California 33,871,648 37,253,956 3,382, % Florida 15,982,378 18,801,310 2,818, % Georgia 8,186,453 9,687,653 1,501, % North Carolina 8,049,313 9,535,483 1,486, % Arizona 5,130,632 6,392,017 1,261, % 65% (2.8 million) of this change can be attributed to growth of the Hispanic population Population values are decennial census counts for April 1 for 2000 and Source: U.S. Census Bureau and 2010 Census Count. 2

3 Year* Total Population and Components of Population Change in Texas, Population Numerical Change Percent Change Percent Change Due to Natural Increase ,711, Net Migration ,579,677 1,868, ,196,730 1,617, ,229,191 3,032, ,986,510 2,757, ,851,820 3,865, ,782,302 3,930, ,145,561 4,293, ,674, , * All values for the decennial dates are for April 1 st of the indicated census year. Values for 2009 and 2011 are for July 1 as estimated by the U.S. Census Bureau. Source: Derived from U.S. Census Bureau Estimates for dates indicated by the Texas State Data Center, University of Texas at San Antonio. Note: Residual values are not presented in this table. 3

4 Components of population change, Texas, ,500,000 4,000,000 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000, ,000 - Net Migration Natural Increase 4

5 Estimated Annual Net Migration to Texas, 2000 to , ,000 International State-to-State 150, ,000 50, to to to to to to to to to 2009 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census 2009 Estimates 5

6 Legend Estimated domestic migration ( ) by county as a percentage of 2000 population -20 to -45% -19 to -10% -9 to -5% -4 to 0% 1 to 5 % 6 to 20% 21 to 30% 31 to 65% Source: Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau, March 19, Map produced by the Texas State Data Center 6

7 Estimated international migration ( ) by county as a percentage of 2000 population Legend 0-1% 1-2.5% % 3.5-5% 5-10% Source: Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau, March 19, Map produced by the Texas State Data Center 7

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9 Texas Shale Plays 9

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13 States with Largest Estimated Unauthorized Immigrant Populations, 2010 State Estimate (thousands) Range California 2,550 (2,350-2,750) Texas 1,650 (1,450-1,850) Florida 825 ( ) New York 625 ( ) New Jersey 550 ( ) Illinois 525 ( ) Georgia 425 ( ) Arizona 400 ( ) 6.5% of Texas 2010 Population Source: Pew Hispanic Center estimates based on residual methodology applied to March Supplements to the Current Population Survey (February 1, 2011). 13

14 Population Under 1 year 4 years 8 years 12 years 16 years 20 years 24 years 28 years 32 years 36 years 40 years 44 years 48 years 52 years 56 years 60 years 64 years 68 years 72 years 76 years 80 years 84 years 88 years 92 years 96 years 100 to 104 Texas White (non-hispanic) and Hispanic Populations by Age, White (non-hispanic) Hispanic Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1 Age 14

15 100 to 104 years 95 years 90 years 85 years 80 years 75 years 70 years 65 years 60 years 55 years 50 years 45 years 40 years 35 years 30 years 25 years 20 years 15 years 10 years 5 years Under 1 year Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010 White M Hispanic M Black M Asian M Other M White F Hispanic F Black F Asian F Other F 200, , ,000 50, , , , ,000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1 15

16 Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010 White Male White Female 100 to 104 years 95 years 90 years 85 years 80 years 75 years 70 years 65 years 60 years 55 years 50 years 45 years 40 years 35 years 30 years 25 years 20 years 15 years 10 years 5 years Under 1 year 200, , ,000 50, , , , ,000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1 16

17 Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, to 104 years 95 years 90 years 85 years 80 years 75 years 70 years 65 years 60 years 55 years 50 years 45 years 40 years 35 years 30 years 25 years 20 years 15 years 10 years 5 years Under 1 year Hispanic M Black M Asian M Other M Hispanic F Black F Asian F Other F 200, , ,000 50, , , , ,000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1 17

18 Legend co48_d00 'PROJECTIONS X$'.totpop ,000 10,001-50,000 50, , , , ,001-1,000,000 1,000,001-4,100,000 Total Population by County, 2010 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census 18

19 Legend co48_d00 Change of the Total Population by County, 2000 to 2010 'PROJECTIONS X$'.totpopch0010-3, ,000 10,001-50,000 50, , , ,000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2000 and 2010 Decennial Census 19

20 Water Population increase for -3 Texas to -0.5 was 20.6% during this period Percent Change of Total Population in Texas Counties, 'PROJECTIONS X$'.pctch %-0% 1%-10% % 25.1%-50% 50.1%-82% Physicians per 1,000 Population 2010 'PROJECTIONS X$'.difphys to Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 and 2010 Decennial Census 20

21 Median Household Income by County, $18,000-30,000 $ 30,000-35,000 $ 35,000-40,000 $40,000-50,000 $ 50,000-76,000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 3-Year Sample

22 Projected Population Growth in Texas, ,000,000 55,000,000 50,000,000 Migration Scenarios Zero.5 of ,000,000 40,000,000 35,000,000 30,000,000 25,000,000 20,000, Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections 22

23 Legend Projected Population Change, Texas tl_2010_48_county10 F6-6, ,000 2,001-10,000 10, , ,001-1,000,000 1,000,001-3,480,000 Counties, Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections Migration Scenario 23

24 Legend Projected Percent Population Change, Texas Counties, tl_2010_48_county10 F5 LT 0% 0-40% % % % Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections Migration Scenario 24

25 Educational Attainment in Texas, 2010 Level of Educational Attainment High school diploma or equivalency or greater Percent of persons aged 25 years and older State Ranking 80.7% 49/50 (tied with CA) Bachelors or greater 25.9% 31 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey,

26 Projected Percent of Labor Force by Educational Attainment in Texas, 2000 and 2040 Percent No High School Diploma High School Graduate Some College Bachelor's Degree Graduate/Prof. Degree * Proj ections are shown for the 1.0 scenario

27 Demographics and Destiny 27

28 Contact Lloyd Potter, Ph.D. Office: (512) or (210) Internet: 28

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