North Central Texas Thinking Ahead

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1 North Central Texas Thinking Ahead Donna Coggeshall

2 Population: Past, Present, and Future 2010: 6.4 million 2040: 10.5 million 1900: 0.4 million Figures are for the 12-county MPA

3 Development Form Thinking Ahead

4 Growth 12-County Area Change Percent Change People % Jobs % all figures are rounded and in millions compound annual growth rate: 1.7% The 12-County Area includes Collin, Dallas, Denton, Ellis, Hood, Hunt, Johnson, Kaufman, Parker, Rockwall, Tarrant, and Wise Counties Population figures do not include people living in group quarter such as jail, dorms, or nursing homes.

5 Growth County Area12- County Area 8 Millions Popula0on Employment Source: NCTCOG 2040 Demographic Forecast

6 Growth County share of projected population growth 2.3% 0.9% Wise 30.5% 12.6% Denton 20.8% 18.3% Collin 2.7% Rockwall 1.7% Hunt Parker Tarrant Dallas 2.6% 1.6% Hood 3.2% 2.9% Kaufman Johnson Ellis Source: NCTCOG 2040 Demographic Forecast

7 Growth County share of projected employment growth 2.1% 1.1% Wise 27.5% 8.7% Denton 36.7% 12.6% Collin 1.4% Rockwall 1.5% Hunt Parker Tarrant Dallas 1.9% 0.8% Hood 3.1% 2.6% Kaufman Johnson Ellis Source: NCTCOG 2040 Demographic Forecast

8 Projections Summarized by Market

9 Population Growth Source: NCTCOG 2040 Demographic Forecast

10 Population Growth Alliance/ North Fort Worth McKinney Frisco/ Legacy Western Tarrant County Las Colinas Southeastern Tarrant County

11 Projections Summarized by Market

12 Employment Growth Source: NCTCOG 2040 Demographic Forecast

13 Employment Growth Las Colinas Brookhollow/ Central Stemmons 190/DNT North Central Corridor Dallas CBD/ Baylor/Uptown I-20

14 Thinking Ahead Development Form Source: NCTCOG 2040 Demographic Forecast

15 What Does It Mean? 44 new hospitals 1,100 new schools 1 million new homes 350 new neighborhood retail centers 14 new malls 470,000 new multifamily units Mobility million more sq ft of class A office space

16 For More Information: Donna Coggeshall

17 Center of Population

18 Household Population

19 Household Population 2040 Wise Denton Collin Hunt Rockwall 2005 Parker Tarrant Dallas Kaufman Hood Ellis Johnson

20 Historical Performance Actual 2003 Predic0on Actual 1994 Predic0on 1988 & 1989 Predic0ons Millions of People Predic0on 1988 Predic0on Actual 1988 Predic0on 1989 Predic0on Predic0on Year The 9-County Area includes Collin, Dallas, Denton, Ellis, Johnson, Kaufman, Parker, Rockwall, and Tarrant Counties Data sources: Predictions-various NCTCOG Demographic Forecasts (release year indicated); Actual-U.S. Census Bureau

21 North Central Texas Council of Governments Voluntary association of, by and for local governments Assist local governments planning for common needs cooperating for mutual benefit coordinating for sound regional development

22 NCTCOG Region 16 counties 12,800 square miles 238 cities 152 school districts 36 special districts

23 Thinking Ahead NCTCOG Structure

24 Economy

25 Economic Ranking - GDP (millions of current dollars) Metropolitan Area New York- Northern New Jersey- Long Island, NY- NJ- PA 898,039 1,280,517 Los Angeles- Long Beach- Santa Ana, CA 506, ,743 Chicago- Naperville- Joliet, IL- IN- WI 396, ,331 Washington- Arlington- Alexandria, DC- VA- MD- WV 264, ,167 Houston- Sugar Land- Baytown, TX 230, ,603 Dallas- Fort Worth- Arlington, TX 255, ,081 Philadelphia- Camden- Wilmington, PA- NJ- DE- MD 241, ,932 San Francisco- Oakland- Fremont, CA 230, ,927 Other Major Texas Metros Aus0n- Round Rock, TX 53,497 86,029 San Antonio, TX 52,324 82,036 Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis

26 Economic Recessions Start (quarter) End (quarter) Duration in Months February 1945(I) October 1945 (IV) 8 November 1948(IV) October 1949 (IV) 11 July 1953(II) May 1954 (II) 10 August 1957(III) April 1958 (II) 8 April 1960(II) February 1961 (I) 10 December 1969(IV) November 1970 (IV) 11 November 1973(IV) March 1975 (I) 16 January 1980(I) July 1980 (III) 6 July 1981(III) November 1982 (IV) 16 July 1990(III) March 1991 (I) 8 March 2001 (I) November 2001 (IV) 8 December 2007 (IV) June 2009 (II) 18 Source: National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.,

27 Unemployment Rate Jan- 00 May- 00 Sep- 00 Jan- 01 May- 01 Sep- 01 Jan- 02 May- 02 Sep- 02 Jan- 03 May- 03 Sep- 03 Jan- 04 May- 04 Sep- 04 Jan- 05 May- 05 Sep- 05 Jan- 06 May- 06 Sep- 06 Jan- 07 May- 07 Sep- 07 Jan- 08 May- 08 Sep- 08 Jan- 09 May- 09 Sep- 09 Jan- 10 May- 10 Sep- 10 Jan- 11 May- 11 Sep- 11 Jan- 12 U.S. Texas DFW MSA Tarrant County Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

28 DFW Major Employers Name American Airlines/AMR NAS Fort Worth Joint Reserve Base Lockheed Mar0n HP/EDS Texas Instruments HQ UT Southwestern Medical Center University of North Texas Parkland Health & Hospital System Medical City Dallas Hospital Nortel Networks Employees on Site Sector 11,709 Transporta0on/Warehousing 11,350 Public Administra0on 10,500 Manufacturing 10,000 Scien0fic/Technical 9,800 Manufacturing 8,545 Health Care/Social Assistance 7,762 Educa0on 6,900 Health Care/Social Assistance 6,000 Health Care/Social Assistance 6,000 Informa0on Source: NCTCOG Development Monitoring Program

29 Tarrant County Major Employers Name American Airlines/AMR NAS Fort Worth Joint Reserve Base Lockheed Mar0n UTA Burlington Northern Santa Fe JPS Health Network AMR Corpora0on Texas Health Harris Methodist Bell Helicopter Textron City of Arlington Employees on Site Sector 11,709 Transporta0on/Warehousing 11,350 Public Administra0on 10,500 Manufacturing 5,300 Educa0on 4,900 Transporta0on/Warehousing 4,600 Health Care/Social Assistance 4,000 Transporta0on/Warehousing 3,968 Health Care/Social Assistance 3,820 Manufacturing 3,500 Public Administra0on Source: NCTCOG Development Monitoring Program

30 State Data Center Projections

31 A More Diverse Region Source: Texas State Data Center

32 70% 60% 50% Thinking Ahead Hispanic Population Projections 40% 30% 20% Dallas County Collin County Denton County Tarrant County 10% 0% Source: Texas State Data Center

33 And a more Mature One 100% 65 plus 80% % 40% 20% Less than 18 0% Source: Texas State Data Center

34 Changing Age Structure Age (years) North Central Texas Population Male Female Persons (thousands) Source: Woods & Poole Economics

35 Tarrant County Population Projection Scenarios Millions of People Zero Net Migra0on (0.0) Lowered Migra0on (0.5) Unchanged Migra0on (1.0) Recent Migra0on Trends ( ) Zero net migration (0.0) assumes that immigration and outmigration are equal. Lowered migration (0.5) assumes net migration rates that are one-half those experienced in the 1990s. Unchanged migration (1.0) assumes that trends in age, sex and race/ethnicity experienced in the 1990s will continue. Recent migration trend ( ) takes into account post-2000 trends in migration rates, age, sex, and race/ethnicity composition. Source: Texas State Data Center

36 Tarrant County Population Projections 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Other 64,588 79,523 95, , , , , , ,044 Hispanic 285, , , , , , , ,979 1,151,940 Black 188, , , , , , , , ,039 Anlgo 908, , , , , , , , ,304 Source: Texas State Data Center

37 Tarrant County Age Structure Projections Age Group Under 5 Females in 2000 Males in 2000 Females in 2040 Males in ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20, ,000 40,000 60,000 80, ,000 Number of People Source: Texas State Data Center

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