Monthly Review of the Texas Economy

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1 AT TEXAS A&M UNIVERSITY Monthly Review of the Texas Economy By Ali Anari, Research Economist TECHNICAL REPORT OC TOBER 15 TR

2 Monthly Review of the Texas Economy October 15 By Ali Anari Texas economy gained 18, nonagricultural jobs from September 1 to September 15, an annual growth rate (rounded) of 1.9 percent, close to the nation s growth rate, which also rounded to 1.9 percent (Table 1 and Figure 1). The nongovernment sector added 198,6 jobs, an annual growth rate of percent compared with.1 percent for the nation s private sector (Table 1). Texas seasonally adjusted unemployment rate fell to. percent in September 15 from.8 percent in September 1. The nation s rate decreased from 5.9 to 5.1 percent (Table 1). Texas Employment Growth Rates by Industry Table shows Texas industries ranked by employment growth rate from September 1 to September 15. All Texas industries except mining and logging and manufacturing had more jobs in September 15 than in September 1. The state s education and health services industry ranked first in job creation followed by leisure and hospitality, information, professional and business services, and the trade industry. Figures to 13 show trends in employment growth rates by industries. Texas Job Shares by Industry and the Government Sector Table 3 shows Texas industries and the state s government sector ranked by their shares of Texas jobs in September 15. Of the 11,835,8 nonagricultural jobs in September 15, the highest percentage of employment by industry was in the trade industry followed by the government sector, education and health services, professional and business services, and leisure and hospitality. Since September 1 the state s trade industry, education and health services, professional and business services, leisure and hospitality, transportation, warehousing and utilities industry, and information industry have expanded their shares of Texas employment at the expense of the government sector, manufacturing, financial activities, construction, mining and logging, and other services industries. Figures 1 to 5 show trends in shares of total Texas jobs by industries. Contributions to Texas Employment Growth Rate by Industry Texas statewide employment growth rate of 1.9 percent, or more exactly percent, from September 1 to September 15 is the weighted average of employment growth rates for all Texas industries for the period. Weights are shares of jobs by industry. The contribution of each industry to the statewide employment growth rate is equal to the employment growth rate of that industry multiplied by its share of Texas jobs. Table shows Texas industries and the state s government sector ranked by their contributions to Texas employment growth rates from September 1 to September 15. The state s education and health services industry ranked first followed by leisure and hospitality, trade, professional and business services, and the government sector. Figures 6 to 37 show trends in contributions of Texas industries to Texas job growth rates. Employment Growth Rates by Texas Metropolitan Areas All Texas metro areas except Wichita Falls and Texarkana had more jobs in September 15 than in September 1 (Table 5). San Antonio-New Braunfels ranked first in job creation, followed by Dallas- Plano-Irving, Victoria, McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, Austin-Round Rock, and Beaumont-Port Arthur (Table 5). Figures 38 to 63 show trends in annual employment growth rates for the state s metropolitan areas. 1

3 Texas Job Shares by Metropolitan Area Table 6 shows Texas metropolitan areas ranked by their shares of total Texas jobs in September 15. The Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown metro area had the largest share of Texas jobs, followed by Dallas- Plano-Irving, Fort Worth-Arlington, San Antonio-New Braunfels, Austin-Round Rock, El Paso and McAllen-Edinburg-Mission. Figures 6 to 89 show trends in Texas metropolitan shares of total Texas jobs. Contributions to Texas Employment Growth Rate by Metropolitan Area The statewide employment growth rate of percent in Texas from September 1 to September 15 is the weighted average of employment growth rates of all Texas metro areas for the period. Weights are shares of jobs by area. The contribution of each metro area to the statewide employment growth rate is equal to the employment growth rate in that area multiplied by its share of Texas jobs. Table 7 shows Texas metro areas ranked by their contributions to Texas employment growth rates from September 1 to September 15. The Dallas-Plano-Irving metro area ranked first in contribution to Texas employment growth rate, followed by Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, San Antonio-New Braunfels, Austin-Round Rock, Fort Worth-Arlington, McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, and Beaumont-Port Arthur. Figures 9 to 115 show trends in contributions of Texas metro areas to total Texas job growth rates. Unemployment Rate by Metropolitan Area The state s actual unemployment rate in September 15 was. percent. Amarillo had the lowest unemployment rate, followed by Austin-Round Rock, Midland, Lubbock, College Station-Bryan, and San Antonio-New Braunfels (Table 8). Employment Growth Rates and Unemployment Rates by Metropolitan Area Figure 116 shows employment growth rates of Texas metro areas from September 1 to September 15 on the vertical axis and their unemployment rates in September 15 on the horizontal axis. Dotted lines for Texas employment growth rate of 1.9 percent from September 1 to September 15 and Texas unemployment rate of. percent in September 15 show the state s metro areas currently falling into the following groups: a. Metro areas with employment growth rates higher than Texas and unemployment rates lower than Texas are San Antonio-New Braunfels, Dallas-Plano-Irving, Victoria, Austin-Round Rock, Midland, Lubbock, and Fort Worth-Arlington. b. Metro areas with employment growth rates higher than Texas and unemployment rates higher than Texas in September 15 were McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, Odessa, and Beaumont-Port Arthur. c. Tyler s employment growth rate from September 1 to September 15 was equal to the statewide average with unemployment higher than the statewide average. d. Metro areas with employment growth rates lower than Texas and unemployment rates lower than Texas in September 15 were Waco, Sherman-Denison, San Angelo, Abilene, Amarillo, and College Station-Bryan. e. Metro areas with employment growth rates lower than the statewide average and unemployment rate higher than the statewide average were Laredo, Corpus Christi, Killeen-Temple-Fort Hood, Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, Brownsville-Harlingen, El Paso, Longview and Texarkana. f. Wichita Falls unemployment rate in September 15 was equal to the statewide average with employment growth rate lower than the statewide average.

4 Table 1 Texas and U.S. Labor Markets Change NonFarm Employment Sept. 15 Sept. 1 Absolute Texas 11,835,8 11,617, 18, 1.9 United States 1,67, 139,919,,78, 1.9 Private Employment Sept. 15 Sept. 1 Absolute Texas 1,,9 9,8,3 198,6. United States 1,671, 118,11,,53,.1 Not Seasonally Adjusted Seasonally adjusted Unemployment Rate Sept. 15 Sept. 1 Sept. 15 Sept. 1 Texas United States Sources: Texas Workforce Commission and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Table Texas Industries and Government Sector Ranked by Employment Growth Rate From September 1 to September 15 Septmber September Rank Industry 15 1 Change %Change 1 Education and Health Services 1,69,5 1,53,5 75,.89 Leisure and Hospitality 1,59,3 1,,8 56,5.7 3 Information 7,7 1,9 5,8.87 Professional and Business Services 1,65,8 1,56,3 3, Trade 1,88, 1,836, 6,.53 6 Transportation, Warehousing, Utilities 9,5 8,6 11,9.7 7 Construction 673,1 663,9 9, Government 1,83,9 1,815,1 19, Other Services 13,8 9,9 3, Financial Activities 78,3 7,5 3, Manufacturing 858,3 889,1-3, Mining and Logging 88, 31,8-6,

5 Table 3 Texas Industries' and Government's Shares of Employment September September 15 1 Rank Industry 1 Trade Government Education and Health Services Professional and Business Services Leisure and Hospitality Manufacturing Financial Activities Construction Transportation, Warehousing, Utilities Other Services Mining and Logging Information Total Note: Components may not add up to totals due to rounding Table Contributions of Texas Industries and the Government Sector to Texas Employment Growth Rate September September 15 1 Rank Industry 1 Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Trade Professional and Business Services Government Transportation, Warehousing, Utilities Construction Information Other Services Financial Activities Mining and Logging Manufacturing Total Note: Components may not add up to totals due to rounding

6 Table 5 Texas Metropolitan Areas Ranked by Employment Growth Rate From September 1 To September 15 Rank Metropolitan Area Employment Growth Rate, % 1 San Antonio-New Braunfels 3.7 Dallas-Plano-Irving 3. 3 Victoria McAllen-Edinburg-Mission Austin-Round Rock 3. 6 Beaumont-Port Arthur.9 7 Midland.8 8 Odessa.7 8 Lubbock.7 1 Fort Worth-Arlington. 11 Tyler 1.9 Texas Laredo Corpus Christi Killeen-Temple-Fort Hood Waco Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown Brownsville-Harlingen Sherman-Denison San Angelo Abilene El Paso 1. Longview.7 3 College Station-Bryan.3 Amarillo. 5 Texarkana Wichita Falls -. 5

7 Table 6 Texas Metropolitan and Micropolitan Shares of Total Texas Jobs September September 15 1 Rank Metropolitan Area 1 Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown Dallas-Plano-Irving Fort Worth-Arlington San Antonio-New Braunfels Austin-Round Rock El Paso McAllen-Edinburg-Mission Corpus Christi Beaumont-Port Arthur Lubbock Brownsville-Harlingen Killeen-Temple-Fort Hood Amarillo Waco College Station-Bryan Longview Laredo Tyler Midland Odessa Abilene Texarkana Wichita Falls San Angelo Victoria Sherman-Denison Micropolitan Texas Total Note: Components may not add up to totals due to rounding 6

8 Table 7 Contributions of Texas Metropolitan and Micropolitan Areas to Total Texas Employment Growth Rate September September Rank Metropolitan Area Dallas-Plano-Irving Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown San Antonio-New Braunfels Austin-Round Rock Fort Worth-Arlington McAllen-Edinburg-Mission Beaumont-Port Arthur Lubbock Corpus Christi El Paso Midland Odessa Tyler Killeen-Temple-Fort Hood Laredo Brownsville-Harlingen Victoria Waco Longview Abilene San Angelo Sherman-Denison College Station-Bryan.6.8 Amarillo Texarkana Wichita Falls Micropolitan Texas Total Note: Components may not add up to totals due to rounding 7

9 Table 8 Texas Metropolitan Areas Ranked by Unemployment Rate, September 15 Rank Metropolitan Area Unemployment Rate,% 1 Amarillo 3.1 Austin-Round Rock 3.3 Midland 3.3 Lubbock 3. 5 College Station-Bryan San Antonio-New Braunfels Abilene Dallas-Plano-Irving Sherman-Denison San Angelo. 11 Fort Worth-Arlington.1 11 Waco.1 13 Victoria. 1 Wichita Falls. Texas. 15 Odessa.5 15 Tyler.5 17 Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown.6 17 Laredo.6 19 Killeen-Temple-Fort Hood.7 Texarkana.8 1 Longview.9 Corpus Christi 5. 3 El Paso 5.1 Beaumont-Port Arthur 6. 5 Brownsville-Harlingen McAllen-Edinburg-Mission 7. Sources:Texas Workforce Commission and Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University 8

10 3 Figure 1 Nonfarm Employment Growth Rates for United States and Texas 1 15 Texas U.S Figure Texas Education and Health Services Industry Annual Employment Growth Rates, Figure 3 Texas Leisure and Hospitality Industry Annual Employment Growth Rates,

11 Figure Texas Information Industry Annual Employment Growth Rates, Figure 5 Texas Professional and Business Services Industry Annual Employment Growth Rates, Figure 6 Texas Trade Industry Annual Employment Growth Rates,

12 6 Figure 7 Texas Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities Industry Annual Employment Growth Rates, Figure 8 Texas Construction Industry Annual Employment Growth Rates, Figure 9 Texas Government Sector Annual Employment Growth Rates,

13 6 Figure 1 Texas Other Services Industry Annual Employment Growth Rates, Figure 11 Texas Financial Activities Industry Annual Employment Growth Rates, Figure 1 Texas Manufacturing Industry Annual Employment Growth Rates,

14 Figure 13 Texas Mining and Logging Industry Annual Employment Growth Rates, Figure 1 Texas Trade Industry Share of Total Texas Jobs, Figure 15 Texas Government Sector Share of Total Texas Jobs,

15 13.8 Figure 16 Texas Education and Health Services Industry Share of Total Texas Jobs, Figure 17 Texas Professional and Business Services Industry Share of Total Texas Jobs, Figure 18 Texas Leisure and Hospitality Industry Share of Total Texas Jobs,

16 8. Figure 19 Texas Manufacturing Industry Share of Total Texas Jobs, Figure Texas Financial Activities Industry Share of Total Texas Jobs, Figure 1 Texas Construction Industry Share of Total Texas Jobs,

17 .5 Figure Texas Transportation, Utilities, Warehousing Industry Share of Total Texas Jobs, Figure 3 Texas Other Services Industry Share of Total Texas Jobs, Figure Texas Mining and Logging Industry Share of Total Texas Jobs,

18 1.88 Figure 5 Texas Information Industry Share of Total Texas Jobs, Figure 6 Texas Education and Health Services Industry Contribution to Texas Employment Growth Rate, Figure 7 Texas Leisure and Hospitality Industry Contribution to Texas Employment Growth Rate,

19 .6 Figure 8 Texas Trade Industry Contribution to Texas Employment Growth Rate, Figure 9 Texas Professional and Business Services Industry Contribution to Texas Employment Growth Rate, Figure 3 Texas Government Sector Contribution to Texas Employment Growth Rate,

20 . Figure 31 Texas Transportation, Utilities, Warehousing Industry Contribution to Texas Employment Growth Rate, Figure 3 Texas Construction Industry Contribution to Texas Employment Growth Rate, Figure 33 Texas Information Industry Contribution to Texas Employment Growth Rate,

21 . Figure 3 Texas Other Services Industry Contribution to Texas Employment Growth Rate, Figure 35 Texas Financial Activities Industry Contribution to Texas Employment Growth Rate, Figure 36 Texas Mining and Logging Industry Contribution to Texas Employment Growth Rate,

22 . Figure 37 Texas Manufacturing Industry Contribution to Texas Employment Growth Rate, Figure 38 San Antonio-New Braunfels Metro Area Annual Employment Growth Rates, Figure 39 Dallas-Plano-Irving Metro Area Annual Employment Growth Rates,

23 Figure Victoria Metro Area Annual Employment Growth Rates, Figure 1 McAllen-Edinburg-Mission Metro Area Annual Employment Growth Rates, Figure Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos Metro Area Annual Employment Growth Rates,

24 8 Figure 3 Beaumont-Port Arthur Metro Area Annual Employment Growth Rates, Figure Midland Metro Area Annual Employment Growth Rates, Figure 5 Odessa Metro Area Annual Employment Growth Rates,

25 Figure 6 Lubbock Metro Area Annual Employment Growth Rates, Figure 7 Fort Worth-Arlington Metro Area Annual Employment Growth Rates, Figure 8 Tyler Metro Area Annual Employment Growth Rates,

26 Figure 9 Laredo Metro Area Annual Employment Growth Rates, Figure 5 Corpus Christi Metro Area Annual Employment Growth Rates, Figure 51 Killeen-Temple-Fort Hood Metro Area Annual Employment Growth Rates,

27 3 Figure 5 Waco Metro Area Annual Employment Growth Rates, Figure 53 Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown Metro Area Annual Employment Growth Rates, Figure 5 Brownsville-Harlingen Metro Area Annual Employment Growth Rates,

28 Figure 55 Sherman-Denison Metro Area Annual Employment Growth Rates, Figure 56 San Angelo Metro Area Annual Employment Growth Rates, Figure 57 Abilene Metro Area Annual Employment Growth Rates,

29 3 Figure 58 El Paso Metro Area Annual Employment Growth Rates, Figure 59 Longview Metro Area Annual Employment Growth Rates, Figure 6 College Station-Bryan Metro Area Annual Employment Growth Rates,

30 Figure 61 Amarillo Metro Area Annual Employment Growth Rates, Figure 6 Texarkana Metro Area Annual Employment Growth Rates, Figure 63 Wichita Falls Metro Area Annual Employment Growth Rates,

31 5. Figure 6 Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown Metro Area Share of Total Texas Jobs, Figure 65 Dallas-Plano-Irving Metro Area Share of Total Texas Jobs, Figure 66 Fort Worth-Arlington Metro Area Share of Total Texas Jobs,

32 8.35 Figure 67 San Antonio-New Braunfels Metro Area Share of Total Texas Jobs, Figure 68 Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos Metro Area Share of Total Texas Jobs, Figure 69 El Paso Metro Area Share of Total Texas Jobs,

33 .16 Figure 7 McAllen-Edinburg-Mission Metro Area Share of Total Texas Jobs, Figure 71 Corpus Christi Metro Area Share of Total Texas Jobs, Figure 7 Beaumont-Port Arthur Metro Area Share of Total Texas Jobs,

34 1. Figure 73 Lubbock Metro Area Share of Total Texas Jobs, Figure 7 Brownsville-Harlingen Metro Area Share of Total Texas Jobs, Figure 75 Killeen-Temple-Fort Hood Metro Area Share of Total Texas Jobs,

35 1.8 Figure 76 Amarillo Metro Area Share of Total Texas Jobs, Figure 77 Waco Metro Area Share of Total Texas Jobs, Figure 78 College Station-Bryan Metro Area Share of Total Texas Jobs,

36 .96 Figure 79 Longview Metro Area Share of Total Texas Jobs, Figure 8 Laredo Metro Area Share of Total Texas Jobs, Figure 81 Tyler Metro Area Share of Total Texas Jobs,

37 .86 Figure 8 Midland Metro Area Share of Total Texas Jobs, Figure 83 Odessa Metro Area Share of Total Texas Jobs, Figure 8 Abilene Metro Area Share of Total Texas Jobs,

38 .58 Figure 85 Texarkana Metro Area Share of Total Texas Jobs, Figure 86 Wichita Falls Metro Area Share of Total Texas Jobs, Figure 87 San Angelo Metro Area Share of Total Texas Jobs,

39 .396 Figure 88 Victoria Metro Area Share of Total Texas Jobs, Figure 89 Sherman-Denison Metro Area Share of Total Texas Jobs, Figure 9 Dallas-Plano-Irving Metro Area Contribution to Texas Employment Growth Rate,

40 1. Figure 91 Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown Metro Area Contribution to Texas Employment Growth Rate, Figure 9 San Antonio-New Braunfels Metro Area Contribution to Texas Employment Growth Rate, Figure 93 Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos Metro Area Contribution to Texas Employment Growth Rate,

41 .6 Figure 9 Fort Worth-Arlington Metro Area Contribution to Texas Employment Growth Rate, Figure 95 McAllen-Edinburg-Mission Metro Area Contribution to Texas Employment Growth Rate, Figure 96 Beaumont-Port Arthur Metro Area Contribution to Texas Employment Growth Rate,

42 . Figure 97 Lubbock Metro Area Contribution to Texas Employment Growth Rate, Figure 98 Corpus Christi Metro Area Contribution to Texas Employment Growth Rate, Figure 99 El Paso Metro Area Contribution to Texas Employment Growth Rate,

43 .8 Figure 1 Midland Metro Area Contribution to Texas Employment Growth Rate, Figure 11 Odessa Metro Area Contribution to Texas Employment Growth Rate, Figure 1 Tyler Metro Area Contribution to Texas Employment Growth Rate,

44 .3 Figure 13 Killeen-Temple-Fort Hood Metro Area Contribution to Texas Employment Growth Rate, Figure 1 Laredo Metro Area Contribution to Texas Employment Growth Rate, Figure 15 Brownsville-Harlingen Metro Area Contribution to Texas Employment Growth Rate,

45 .5 Figure 16 Victoria Metro Area Contribution to Texas Employment Growth Rate, Figure 17 Waco Metro Area Contribution to Texas Employment Growth Rate, Figure 18 Longview Metro Area Contribution to Texas Employment Growth Rate,

46 . Figure 19 Abilene Metro Area Contribution to Texas Employment Growth Rate, Figure 11 San Angelo Metro Area Contribution to Texas Employment Growth Rate, Figure 111 Sherman-Denison Metro Area Contribution to Texas Employment Growth Rate,

47 .6 Figure 11 College Station-Bryan Metro Area Contribution to Texas Employment Growth Rate, Figure 113 Amarillo Metro Area Contribution to Texas Employment Growth Rate, Figure 11 Texarkana Metro Area Contribution to Texas Employment Growth Rate,

48 .1 Figure 115 Wichita Falls Metro Area Contribution to Texas Employment Growth Rate, Figure 116 Texas Metropolitan Employment Growth Rates and Unemployment Rates. San Antonio-New Braunfels Employment Growth Rate from September 1 to September 15, Austin-Round Rock Amarillo Dallas-Plano-Irving Midland Lubbock Texas Fort Worth-Arlington Waco College Station-Bryan Victoria Sherman-Denison San Angelo Abilene Wichita Falls Odessa Tyler Texas Laredo Corpus Christi Killeen-Temple-Fort Hood Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown Longview Texarkana El Paso Beaumont-Port Arthur McAllen-Edinburg-Mission Brownsville-Harlingen Unemployment Rate, September 15, 7

49 MAYS BUSINESS SCHOOL Texas A&M University 115 TAMU College Station, TX DIRECTOR GARY W. MALER ADVISORY COMMITTEE C. CLARK WELDER, CHAIRMAN San Antonio MARIO A. ARRIAGA Spring JACQUELYN K. HAWKINS Austin DOUG JENNINGS Fort Worth TED NELSON Houston RUSSELL CAIN, VICE CHAIRMAN Port Lavaca DOUG ROBERTS Austiny KIMBERLY SHAMBLEY Dallas RONALD C. WAKEFIELD San Antonio BILL JONES, EX-OFFICIO Temple i

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