Texas. Population Estimates and Projections ERCOT Long-Term System Assessment (LTSA) Stakeholder Workshop. January 13, 2014 Austin, TX DRAFT

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1 Texas Population Estimates and Projections 2014 ERCOT Long-Term System Assessment (LTSA) Stakeholder Workshop January 13, 2014 Austin, TX 1

2 Total Estimated Population by County, 2012 Along and east of I-35: 40% of land 86% of population 92% of population growth ( ) Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2012 Population Estimates 2

3 Change of the Total Population by County, 2000 to counties lost population over the decade Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2000 and 2010 Census Counts 3

4 Change of the Total Population by County, 2010 to counties lost population over the two year period Of counties that lost population 90% had net out migration 47% had natural decline Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates, 2012 Vintage. 4

5 The 10 Fastest Growing Metro Areas Increase from July 1, 2011, to July 1, 2012 Percent Increase 1. Midland, Texas Clarksville, Tenn.-Ky Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, Fla The Villages, Fla Odessa, Texas Jacksonville, N.C Austin-Round Rock, Texas Casper, Wyo Columbus, Ga.-Ala Manhattan, Kan. 2.8 Source: U.S. Census Bureau,

6 The 10 Counties with the Largest Numeric Increase from July 1, 2011, to July 1, 2012 Numeric Increase 1. Harris, Texas 80, Los Angeles, Calif. 73, Maricopa, Ariz. 73, Dallas, Texas 45, San Diego, Calif. 38, King, Wash. 35, Travis, Texas 34, Orange, Calif. 34, Tarrant, Texas 32, Clark, Nev. 32,833 Source: U.S. Census Bureau,

7 Estimated domestic migration by county, Source: Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau, Map produced by the Texas State Data Center 7

8 Estimated population change , Select Central Texas Counties Travis Williamson Hays Guadalupe Comal Kendall Wilson Waller Burnet Caldwell Bastrop Lampasas Washington DeWitt Gillespie Gonzales Lavaca Austin Kerr Blanco Goliad Fayette Burleson Real Bandera McCulloch Menard Mason Lee Kimble Mills San Saba Colorado Llano Brown Natural Increase Net Migration Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates 8 (10,000) - 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000

9 Estimated population change , Select Central Texas Counties Travis Williamson Hays Guadalupe Comal Kendall Wilson Waller Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates 9-10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000

10 Estimated population change , Select Central Texas Counties Burnet Caldwell Bastrop Lampasas Washington DeWitt Gillespie Gonzales Lavaca Austin Kerr Blanco Goliad Fayette Burleson Real Bandera McCulloch Menard Mason Lee Kimble Mills San Saba Colorado Llano Brown Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates Scale on previous slide went to 80, (600) (400) (200)

11 Projected population change , Select Central Texas Counties, 0.5 Migration Scenario Source: Texas State Data Center, 2012 Vintage Population Projections 11

12 Projected population change , Select Central Texas Counties, 1.0 Migration Scenario Source: Texas State Data Center, 2012 Vintage Population Projections 12

13 Projected percent population change , Select Central Texas Counties, 0.5 Migration Scenario Source: Texas State Data Center, 2012 Vintage Population Projections 13

14 Projected percent population change , Select Central Texas Counties, 1.0 Migration Scenario Source: Texas State Data Center, 2012 Vintage Population Projections 14

15 Hays Williamson Bastrop Guadalupe Comal Waller Kendall Wilson Caldwell Austin Burnet Blanco Travis Gillespie Bandera Lampasas Goliad Fayette Kerr Lee Burleson Washington Gonzales Llano McCulloch Colorado Kimble Mills San Saba De Witt Mason Brown Real Lavaca Menard Projected percent population change , Select Central Texas Counties, 0.5 and 1.0 migration scenarios.5 Migration 1.0 Migration Source: Texas State Data Center, 2012 Vintage Population Projections -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 160% %

16 Projected population change , Select Central Texas Counties, 0.5 and 1.0 migration scenarios Williamson Travis Hays Guadalupe Comal Bastrop Waller Wilson Kendall Caldwell Burnet Austin Kerr Gillespie Washington Bandera Fayette Lampasas Blanco Gonzales Burleson Lee Llano Brown Colorado Goliad De Witt McCulloch San Saba Kimble Mills Lavaca Mason Real Menard 0.5 Migation 1.0 Migration

17 Job Growth 17

18 Percent of labor force employed in professional, scientific, and management, and administrative and waste management services, census tracts, Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-Year Sample,

19 Percent of labor force employed in agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting, and mining, census tracts, Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-Year Sample,

20 Demographics and Destiny 20

21 Contact Lloyd Potter, Ph.D. Office: (512) or (210) Internet: 21

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