What moves if oil moves? Be aware of indirect oil exposure and make use of it
|
|
- Shawn Owens
- 8 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 What moves if oil moves? Be aware of indirect oil exposure and make use of it DR BERND MEYER CFA HEAD OF CROSS ASSET STRATEGY commerzbank.com Large changes in the oil price and elevated oil volatility severely affect the performance of currencies, asset classes, regions and sectors. Investors need to be aware of this indirect oil exposure to steer their overall oil exposure. Indirect oil exposure is the only way for investors not in a position to buy commodities or commodity futures to gain oil exposure. Moreover, indirect exposure may be more attractive than outright investments in futures markets when oil futures are strongly in contango as is currently the case. Here, we discuss the transmission channels of oil price changes to the performance of other assets, analyse the correlations and sensitivities and suggest various ways of gaining indirect oil exposure. PAGE 2: WHEN OIL PRICES MOVE, OTHER ASSETS TEND TO MOVE, TOO PAGE 2: THE TRANSMISSION CHANNELS OF OIL PRICE CHANGES PAGE 3: HISTORICAL SENSITIVITIES PAGE 5: DISCLAIMER AND CONTACTS 1
2 WHEN OIL PRICES MOVE, OTHER ASSETS TEND TO MOVE, TOO Oil prices have moved considerably over the last year. The price of oil collapsed by 55% from June 214 to January 215 and rebounded by almost 3% in February. Oil-implied volatility, as measured by the CBOE Crude Oil ETF Volatility Index (OVX), skyrocketed from 14% to 63%, the highest level since 28/9. Large oil price moves tend to go hand in hand with moves of other assets. One example is the well-known negative relationship between the USD and the oil price, which results mainly from the fact that oil is denominated in USD but predominantly produced and consumed in other currency areas. However, we can observe many other relationships (see Chart 1 for some examples) that investors need to be aware of to judge and steer the overall oil exposure of their portfolios. Chart 1: The decline of the oil price over the last year went hand in hand with moves in other assets (1 June 214 = 1) Jun 14 Aug 14 Oct 14 Dec 14 Feb 15 OVX Index (percent, right axis) NOK/USD MSCI Lat Am/MSCI Japan WTI MSCI World Energy/Airlines Dollar trade weighted In addition, indirect oil exposure is the only way for investors not in a position to buy commodities or commodity futures to gain oil exposure. If oil futures curves are strongly in contango as is currently the case indirect oil exposure may be an even more attractive way of gaining oil exposure. Losses due to roll costs over 12-month periods have reached levels of more than 6% in the last 2 years. Chart 2: Currencies of oil net exporters should be most strongly affected by oil price changes 1..5 THE TRANSMISSION CHANNELS OF OIL PRICE CHANGES Observed relationships between oil price moves and (relative developments of currencies, asset classes, sector and regions result either from fundamental relationships or due to the fact South Africa India Poland Eurozone Japan Turkey Sweden China New Zealand United States Indonesia Switzerland Australia United Kingdom Denmark Brazil Canada Russia Norway Venezuela Iraq Saudi Arabia. that oil and the assets are simultaneously driven by another driver (spurious relationship) such as an acceleration or Yearly net imports in litre/gdp USD (212) Yearly net exports in litre/gdp USD (right axis, 212) deceleration of global growth. Source: CIA, Commerzbank Research Fundamental relationships are either a result of the effect of oil price changes on inflation and inflation expectations or of the wealth transfer between oil producers and oil consumers when the oil price moves. The former affect the (relative) performance of assets such as inflation-linked and nominal sovereign bonds or gold. Moreover, sustained shifts in inflation or inflation expectations may trigger (expectations of) changes in monetary policy, which in turn again affect the performance of assets. The latter can be observed at the macro, corporate and endconsumer levels. Chart 3: EMEA and UK equity markets with particularly high weight of energy-related stocks Sector weight, in percent At the macro level oil net exporters (see Chart 2) tend to be most affected. Declining oil prices are a threat to their budgets and current account balances. Their currencies tend to depreciate with falling oil prices. On the flip side, energy intensive and energy importing countries, in particular, should see relief to their budgets and current account balances supporting their currencies if oil prices decline. Japan US Europe ex UK EM Asia Energy Material Energy & Materials Pacific ex Jap LatAm UK EMEA At the corporate level, both companies related to oil production and companies with energy-intensive production, such as 2
3 Chart 4: Correlation and sensitivity of currency vs the USD to oil price changes Chart 5: Correlation and sensitivity of asset classes to oil price changes RUB CHF.2 JPY -.2 USD trade-weighted -.4 AUD NOK BRL ZAR IDR SEK CAD NZD TRY DKK EUR GBP INR CNY Crude Oil.8 Energy.6.4 US Inflation Commodities Linker.2 US REITs US Treasuries Gold US Equities US Credit Cash US HY aluminium producers or airlines, are directly affected by shifts in the oil price. Regional equity and corporate bond markets have different exposures to these sectors. Therefore, the relative sector performance feeds through to relative regional performance of equity or corporate bond markets. Chart 3 illustrates that, in particular, the EMEA and UK equity markets have a high share of energy companies, while Japan has a particularly low share. As this is correlated with the currency effect of the oil price discussed above, the EMEA and UK regions should clearly suffer from falling oil prices while Japan benefits and vice versa. Regarding high yield corporate bonds, it is worth noting that the USD high yield market has a 12% share in the oil and gas sector, while this share is less than 1% in the EUR high yield market. Oil prices have moved considerably over the last year. The price of oil collapsed by 55% from June 214 to January 215 and rebounded by almost 3% in February Finally, at the consumer level, a change in the oil price usually means a change in disposable income available for other expenditures. Consequently, consumer-related equities and corporate bonds should be positively affected by declining oil prices and vice versa. This should be more pronounced for consumer discretionary areas than consumer staples and, in particular, for those related to oil, such as airlines or car manufacturers. HISTORICAL SENSITIVITIES Our analysis of historical sensitivities and correlations is based on weekly total return data over the last 2 years. The price of WTI crude oil in USD is used to measure the oil price. We analyse currencies, asset classes, as well as equity and REITs sectors and regions. 1. Currencies The first thing that Chart 4 reveals is that all currencies except JPY tend to appreciate versus the USD when oil prices rise. This is mainly due to the fact that oil tends to depend causally on the USD rather than the other way round. Oil prices are denominated in USD while oil is predominantly produced in countries with other currencies. An appreciation of the USD means that one USD buys more oil from other currency areas, and the oil price in USD declines. Chart 4 also shows the high sensitivities of the so-called commodity currencies to the oil price. In particular, Norway and Canada, but also Australia, were highly correlated with WTI moves in the last 2 years. On the other hand, net importers with defensive currencies like Japan and Switzerland, but also China, showed less sensitivity in the last 2 years. The latter should not just be because China is a major oil importer, but largely because the CNY has been a managed currency. As a special case, Japan has a difficult relationship. Surprisingly, the Russian rouble seems relatively unaffected to oil price changes of the last 2 years, but it is likely to be more strongly correlated to changes in the price of Brent rather than the price of WTI. 2. Asset classes Looking at correlations and sensitivities of asset classes to the change in the oil price, it is not surprising to find that the commodity asset class and, in particular, the energy sector within commodities, are the most strongly related (see Chart 5). The rest of the picture reveals a clear cyclical relationship. 3
4 As a result of the common driver, economic growth, oil price moves have a positive relationship with equities, REITs and high yield but a negative one with other fixed income. The inflation channel however, shows that gold and inflation-linked bonds have at least a slightly positive relationship with changes in the oil price. By equity region, EMEA and LatAm are most positively correlated with the oil price, both in local currency terms and in USD Chart 6: Correlation and sensitivity of the relative performance of equity sectors and industry groups to oil price changes ENERGY Div Financial. MATERIALS Automobiles CONS. DISCR. IT INDUSTRIAL CONS. FINANCIALS - STPL. UTILITY Insurance TELCO - HEALTH- Health Care -.15 CARE Equipment Equity sectors (in uppercase) Industry groups 3. Equity sectors and regions Looking at the relationship of the relative performance of equity sectors and oil (see Chart 6), the cyclical pattern again shows that the energy and material sectors are clearly positively correlated the energy sector tends to outperform the MSCI World index by 2pp when the oil price rises by 1% while defensive sectors such as health care, consumer staples and utilities show a negative relationship. It is worth noting, though, that the consumer discretionary sector, which is typically deemed cyclical, shows a negative relationship with the oil price. As argued above, this should be due to the fundamental effect of the oil price. First, a rising oil price is negative for the energy-intensive airlines in this sector; and second, a rising oil price lowers the disposable income of consumers for discretionary spending. By equity region, EMEA and LatAm are most positively correlated with the oil price, both in local currency terms and USD (see Chart 7). Among emerging markets, EM Asia seems less positively related. This clearly reflects the fact that Asian economies are predominantly oil importers and, at the same time, have a relatively low weight of the energy sector in their equity markets. Japanese equities show the lowest relationship with oil, both in USD and local currency terms. In the case of the former even less than in the case of the latter, as the JPY/USD is negatively correlated with changes in the oil price as discussed above. In local currency terms, Europe is only marginally more strongly correlated with the oil price than the US, which should be due to the high energy sector weighting of UK equities. In USD, the positive correlation with oil increases due to the positive correlation of most European currencies versus the USD with the oil price. Chart 7: Correlation and sensitivity of equity regions in local currency and USD to oil price changes Asia Local Japan Local Japan USD Pac ex Japan USD Asia USD Europe Local S&P 5 Pac ex Japan Local Europe USD Lat Am Local Lat Am USD EMEA USD EMEA Local Equity regions in local currency Equity regions in USD SUMMARY Observed relationships between oil price moves and the performance of other assets result either from fundamental relationships or are due to the fact that oil (and the assets) are simultaneously driven by another driver (a spurious relationship), such as an acceleration or deceleration of global growth. Investors aiming to gain indirect oil exposure should look for positions that are justified by both the cyclical relationship and the fundamental connection. Against this backdrop, positions such as EMEA and LatAm equity long and Japanese and EM Asia equities short, energy stocks long and airline or car companies short or a long basket of NOK / JPY, CAD / JPY and RUB / JPY, are examples of appropriate indirect oil exposure. 4
5 Disclaimer This document has been created and published by the Corporates & Markets division of Commerzbank AG, Frankfurt/Main or the group companies mentioned in the document ( Commerzbank ). Commerzbank Corporates & Markets is the investment banking division of Commerzbank, integrating research, debt, equities, interest rates and foreign exchange. This is a financial promotion/marketing communication (together communication ). It is not investment research or financial analysis as these terms are defined in applicable regulations and has not been prepared by a research analyst. The views in this communication may differ from the published views of Commerzbank Corporates & Markets Research Department and the communication has been prepared separately of such department. This communication may contain short term trading ideas. Any returns or future expectations referred to are not intended to forecast or predict future events. Any prices provided herein (other than those that are identified as being historical) are indicative only, and do not represent firm quotes as to either size or price. This communication is for information purposes only. The information contained herein does not constitute the provision of investment advice. It is not intended to be nor should it be construed as an offer or solicitation to acquire, or dispose of, any of the financial instruments and/or securities mentioned in this communication and will not form the basis or a part of any contract. Potential counterparties/distributors should review independently and/or obtain independent professional advice and draw their own conclusions regarding the suitability/appropriateness of any transaction including the economic benefit and risks and the legal, regulatory, credit, tax and accounting aspects in relation to their particular circumstances. Levels, bases and relief from taxation may change from time to time. Any information in this communication is based on data obtained from sources believed by Commerzbank to be reliable, but no representations, guarantees or warranties are made by Commerzbank with regard to the accuracy, completeness or suitability of the data. The past performance of financial instruments is not indicative of future results. No assurance can be given that any financial instrument or issuer described herein would yield favourable investment results. This communication is intended solely for distribution to Professional Clients and/or Eligible Counterparties of Commerzbank. It is not intended to be distributed to Retail Clients or potential Retail Clients. Neither Commerzbank nor any of its respective directors, officers or employees accepts any responsibility or liability whatsoever for any expense, loss or damages arising out of or in any way connected with the use of all or any part of this communication. Commerzbank and/or its principals or employees may have a long or short position or may transact in financial instrument(s) and/or securities referred to herein or may trade in such financial instruments with other customers on a principal basis. The information may have been discussed between various Commerzbank personnel and such personnel may have already acted on the basis of this information (including trading for Commerzbank s own account or communication of the information to other customers of Commerzbank). Commerzbank may act as a market maker in the financial instruments or companies discussed herein and may also perform or seek to perform investment banking services for those companies. No part of this communication may be reproduced, distributed or transmitted in any manner without prior written permission of Commerzbank. This communication or the manner of its distribution may be restricted by law or regulation in certain countries. Persons into whose possession this document may come are required to inform themselves about, and to observe any such restriction. By accepting this communication, a recipient hereof agrees to be bound by the foregoing limitations. This communication is issued by Commerzbank AG and approved in the UK by Commerzbank AG London Branch, authorised by the German Federal Financial Supervisory Authority and the European Central Bank. Commerzbank AG London Branch is authorised and subject to limited regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority and Prudential Regulation Authority. Details about the extent of our regulation by the Financial Conduct authority and Prudential Regulatory Authority are available on request. Italy: You should contact Commerzbank AG, London Branch if you wish to use our services to effect a transaction in any of the financial or other instruments mentioned in this communication. Japan: Not for distribution in Japan US: Not for distribution in United States Canada: Neither Commerzbank AG nor any affiliate acts, or holds itself out, as a dealer in derivatives with respect to any Canadian person, in Canada as a whole or in any Canadian province, and nothing contained in this document may be construed as an offer or indication that Commerzbank is or stands ready to (in each case, with respect to a Canadian counterparty or within Canada) intermediate derivatives trades, act as a market maker in derivatives of any kind, trade derivatives with the intention of receiving remuneration or compensation, solicit (directly or indirectly) derivatives transactions, provide derivatives clearing services, trade with a nonqualified Canadian party that is not represented by a derivatives dealer or adviser, or engage in activities similar to those of a derivatives dealer. Copyright Commerzbank 215. All rights reserved. Commerzbank Corporates & Markets Frankfurt Commerzbank AG DLZ Gebäude 2, Händlerhaus Mainzer Landstraße Frankfurt am Main Tel.: London Commerzbank AG London Branch 3 Gresham Street, London EC2V 7PG Tel.:
REITs: Liquid exposure to concrete gold with high yield sensitivity
REITs: Liquid exposure to concrete gold with high yield sensitivity DR BERND MEYER CFA HEAD OF CROSS ASSET STRATEGY dr.bernd.meyer@ commerzbank.com ULRICH URBAHN CFA, SENIOR CROSS ASSET STRATEGIST ulrich.urbahn@
More informationMarket Making for Exchange Traded Funds. Corporates & Markets
Market Making for Exchange Traded Funds Corporates & Markets Commerzbank your trusted partner in the ETF market Since the start of the new millennium, exchange traded funds (ETFs) have experienced phenomenal
More informationCIO Flash Revisions to our 2016 global outlook Jan 25, 2016
CIO Flash Revisions to our global outlook Jan 25, +++ CIO FLASH +++ CIO FLASH +++ CIO FLASH +++ CIO FLASH +++ CIO FLASH +++ CIO FLASH +++ CIO FLASH +++ CIO FLASH +++ CIO FLASH The global macro picture:
More informationWhy ECB QE is Negative for Commodities. Investment Research & Advisory. Deltec International Group
Atul Lele alele@deltecinv.com +1 242 302 4135 David Munoz dmunoz@deltecinv.com +1 242 302 4106 David Frazer dfrazer@deltecinv.com +1 242 302 4156 Why ECB QE is Negative for Commodities Recent ECB Quantitative
More informationFX Strategies. In the Low Yield Environment. Eddie Wang Head of FX Structuring, Asia. Hong Kong October 2010
FX Strategies In the Low Yield Environment Eddie Wang Head of FX Structuring, Asia Hong Kong October 2010 Contents 01 Key Trends 02 FX Hedging Strategies 03 FX Investment Strategies SECTION 01 Key Trends
More information96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08* FDI Portfolio Investment Other investment
Chartbook Contact: Sebastian Becker +49 69 91-3664 Global Risk Analysis The unwinding of Yen carry trades Some empirical evidence 3 2 1-1 -2-3 -4 October 31, 28 Many years before the sub-prime crisis hit
More informationFTSE Global Bond Index Series
FTSE Global Bond Index Series FTSE GLOBAL BOND INDEX SERIES The FTSE Global Bond Index Series is a series of fixed income indices covering the principal government bond markets and selected corporate markets.
More informationCIO Flash U.S. Fed tapering
CIO Flash U.S. Fed tapering 19 December 2013 The art of tapering without spoiling markets (I) Final decision and first reaction Taper light, with strengthened forward guidance The Federal Open Market Committee
More informationAxioma Risk Monitor Global Developed Markets 29 June 2016
Axioma Risk Monitor Global Developed Markets 29 June 2016 1. Global volatility hotspots 2. Global correlation hotspots www.axioma.com Greater than 1% rise over last week Greater than 1% fall over last
More informationDo Currencies Have a Fair Value?
Do Currencies Have a Fair Value? May 2011 George Saravelos European FX Strategist IMPORTANT: PLEASE SEE CONFLICT DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATION IMMEDIATELY AT THE END OF THE TEXT OF THIS REPORT.
More informationRegistered country information Vanguard Investment Series plc and Vanguard Funds plc
Registered country information Vanguard Investment Series plc and Vanguard Funds plc The value of investments, and the income from them, may fall or rise and investors may get back less than they invested.
More informationDaily FX Focus. 31-Dec-2014
Australia FX Pick:AUD/USD Nov private sector credit rose 5.9% YoY, as expected. AUD/USD was consolidating in a range of 0.8122-0.8203 levels. AUD/USD s short-term support is at 0.8070, and resistance is
More informationANZ ETFS PHYSICAL RENMINBI ETF. (ASX Code: ZCNH)
ANZ ETFS PHYSICAL RENMINBI ETF (ASX Code: ZCNH) INVESTMENT BUILDING BLOCKS FOR A CHANGING WORLD Introducing a suite of innovative exchange traded funds (ETFs) designed for Australian investors by ANZ
More informationBond markets vote for global recovery
Bond markets vote for global recovery Weekly Market View 11 May 2015 1 % Euro area recovery, oil rebound lead to bond sell-off German bund yields recovered from record low levels, leading a surge in global
More informationPROTECTING YOUR PORTFOLIO WITH BONDS
Your Global Investment Authority PROTECTING YOUR PORTFOLIO WITH BONDS Bond strategies for an evolving market Market uncertainty has left many investors wondering how to protect their portfolios during
More informationMinimum Australia 0.10% AUD $7.00
CMC Markets s Schedule for CFD trades executed as a client introduced by Rivkin Securities Pty Ltd to CMC Markets are outlined below. These rates are current at the time of this email however may be subject
More informationJPMorgan Global Bond Fund. Global investing - A less volatile choice NEW. SFC-authorised global bond fund with RMB-hedged share classes*!
AVAILABLE FOR PUBLIC CIRCULATION NEW JPMorgan Global Bond Fund December 2015 Asset Management Company of the Year 2014 Fundamental Strategies, Asia + Important information 1. The Fund invests primarily
More informationImpact of QE on Fixed Income
Impact of QE on Fixed Income David Greene, Client Portfolio Manager Pioneer Investments Unconstrained Approaches Potential returns mean investors have to be more opportunistic 5 0 Expected return based
More informationGlobal Investing: The Importance of Currency Returns and Currency Hedging
Global Investing: The Importance of Currency Returns and Currency Hedging There is a continuing trend for investors to reduce their home bias in equity allocation and increase the allocation to international
More informationEquity Sell-off Continues, Bonds Affected
Equity Sell-off Continues, Bonds Affected Executive Summary Portfolio Performance So Far The 1-month performance of all model portfolios have been affected by the recent sell-off in equities, with returns
More informationGlovista Global Perspectives
Issue 65 May/15 Monthly Newsletter for Global Investors Glovista Global Perspectives This issue : S&P Sector Performance P.2 Ccy and Cmdty Performance P.3 Important Interest Rates P.4 Carlos Asilis, Ph.D.
More information2015 FUZZY DAY CONFERENCE Facts that are Not Facts. The US dollar Safe Haven Myth and the United States Hedge Fund.
2015 FUZZY DAY CONFERENCE Facts that are Not Facts The US dollar Safe Haven Myth and the United States Hedge Fund Alessio de Longis 1 The Role of Currency in Institutional Portfolios, edited by Momtchil
More informationEconomic Data. October 01, 2015. September 30, 2015. October 01, 2015
Economic Data September 30, 2015 Country Economic Data Actual Expected Previous NZD Building Permits M/M Aug -4.90% 20.40% GBP GfK Consumer Sentiment Sep 3 5 7 JPY Industrial Production M/M Aug P -0.50%
More informationSBERBANK GROUP S IFRS RESULTS. March 2015
SBERBANK GROUP S IFRS RESULTS 2014 March 2015 SUMMARY OF PERFORMANCE FOR 2014 STATEMENT OF PROFIT OR LOSS Net profit reached RUB 290.3bn (or RUB 13.45 per ordinary share), compared to RUB 362.0bn (or RUB
More informationChapter 4.1. Intermarket Relationships
1 Chapter 4.1 Intermarket Relationships 0 Contents INTERMARKET RELATIONSHIPS The forex market is the largest global financial market. While no other financial market can compare to the size of the forex
More informationSecond Quarter and First Half 2015 Trading Update
Second Quarter and First Half 2015 Trading Update Trading Performance Year-on-Year Gross Profit Reported ( m) Constant 2015 2014 % % Q2 145.3 137.1 +6.0% +10.6% H1 281.0 263.7 +6.6% +10.8% Q2 Gross Profit
More informationAn Overview of Offshore RMB Market. Nov 2013
An Overview of Offshore RMB Market Nov 2013 Contents 1. Outlook of RMB Internationalisation 2. Implications for Offshore RMB Bonds 2 Section 1 Outlook of RMB Internationalisation 3 RMB The next international
More informationApril 2012. The European Fund Classification. EFC Categories
April 2012 The European Fund Classification EFC Categories Table of Contents 1. Introduction... 1 2. Historical Background... 1 3. State of Play... 2 4. Overview of the European Fund Classification...
More informationCommodities. Precious metals as an asset class. April 2011. What qualifies as an asset class? What makes commodities an asset class?
Commodities Precious metals as an asset class April 2011 What qualifies as an asset class? Broadly speaking, an asset class is simply a grouping of assets that possess similar characteristics. Defining
More informationEconomic Data. International Market Recap. September 21, 2015. September 18, 2015
Economic Data September 18, 2015 Country Economic Data Actual Expected Previous JPY BoJ Minutes EUR Eurozone Current Account (EUR) Jul 22.6B 21.3B 25.4B CAD CPI M/M Aug 0.00% 0.00% 0.10% CAD CPI Y/Y Aug
More informationThree new stock ETFs for greater global diversification
Three new stock ETFs for greater global diversification Canadian stocks account for less than 4% of publicly traded companies global market value. Investors in Canada, however, allocate 59% of their stock
More informationIndex Solutions A Matter of Weight
Index Solutions A Matter of Weight Newsletter No. 11 Our current newsletter is about weight, or more precisely the weighting of equities in an index. Non-market capitalization weighted indices are at present
More informationThe Growing Importance of Fixed Income Analytics
Trusted by the Market. Driven by You. www.yieldbook.com The Growing Importance of Fixed Income Analytics Susan Y. Lin Managing Director Regional Head, Asia Pacific The Yield Book and Citi Fixed Income
More informationdb Currency Harvest Deutsche Bank Global Currency Harvest Index Deutsche Bank Balanced Currency Harvest Index Deutsche Bank G10 Currency Harvest Index
GLOBAL MARKETS CURRENCIES & COMMODITIES db Currency Harvest Deutsche Bank Global Currency Harvest Index Deutsche Bank Balanced Currency Harvest Index Deutsche Bank G10 Currency Harvest Index Introducing
More informationEconomic Data. October 30, 2015. October 29, 2015
Economic Data October 29, 2015 Country Economic Data Actual Expected Previous NZD RBNZ Rate Decision 2.75% 2.75% 2.75% JPY Industrial Production M/M Sep 1.00% -0.60% -1.20% AUD Import Price Index Q/Q Q3
More informationMarch 2015. Investment policy. CH, DE, AT, IT, FR, FL and LU edition
March 2015 Investment policy CH, DE, AT, IT, FR, FL and LU edition Further expansion of the equity exposure in Europe and the emerging countries. The Swisscanto equities barometer 0 neutral allocation
More informationDO WE NEED MORE STORAGE IN EUROPE?
DO WE NEED MORE STORAGE IN EUROPE? 25-26 April 212 Dr Thierry Bros Phone: 33 ()1 58 98 11 7 Important Notice: The circumstances in which this publication has been produced are such that it is not appropriate
More informationEvaluating the Australian Outlook through a Global Lens
Evaluating the Australian Outlook through a Global Lens Chris Siniakov Managing Director, Fixed Income International Bond Yields 4.00% 2-Year Government Yields as at 15 January 2015 3.00% 2.00% 1.00% 0.00%
More informationADDITIONAL (ASX DESCRIPTION CODE: ZGOL) AND THE DATE
HEADLINE GOES ANZ HERE ETFS PHYSICAL ONE LINE GOLD OR TWO ETF ADDITIONAL (ASX DESCRIPTION CODE: ZGOL) AND THE DATE THE EXCHANGE TRADED FUND THAT S AS GOOD AS GOLD 1 WHAT IS ANZ ETFS PHYSICAL GOLD ETF?
More informationFixed Income Training Seminar Asset Management Experience
Asset Management Fixed Income Training Seminar Asset Management Experience Philipp Büchler, Chris Koslowski, Markus Kramer, Manuel Walker Credit Suisse Asset Management Core Fixed Income Group Zurich August
More informationSpecial Drawing Rights A Way out of Global Imbalances?
Special Drawing Rights A Way out of Global Imbalances? Stefan Bender Special Drawing Rights Definition Special Drawing Rights (SDR) are the monetary unit of the reserve assets of the International Monetary
More informationThe Volcker Rule. Implications for the FX Market
The Volcker Rule Implications for the FX Market Ulrich Leuchtmann Head of FX Research June 2012 The Volcker rule General idea: a new version of Glass-Steagall Glass-Steagall Bank Volcker Rule Bank Investment
More informationAnnual financial statements, distributions & tax issues
Portfolio Funds 2087605 CH0020876055 Credit Suisse (CH) Interest & Dividend Focus Balanced CHF A CHF CH 31.12. Distributing 19955038 CH0199550382 Credit Suisse (CH) Interest & Dividend Focus Balanced CHF
More informationSTANDARD TARIFF SCALE STOCK, ADR, ETF
ANNEX 1 TO BROKERAGE SERVICE AGREEMENT USA Canada Mexico Austria Belgium France NORTH AMERICA Fee EUROPE Germany SWB FWB (1) Chi-X/NURO/Turqoise DE Xetra ETFs Xetra - Stocks Italy Netherlands Spain Sweden
More informationFX Strategies. in the Post-Crisis World. Eddie Wang Head of FX Structuring, Asia. Hong Kong October 2009
FX Strategies in the Post-Crisis World Eddie Wang Head of FX Structuring, Asia Hong Kong October 2009 Contents ONE Key Trends in the Post-Crisis World TWO FX Hedging Strategies THREE FX Investment Strategies
More informationDiversify your wealth internationally
ab UBS Swiss Financial Advisers Diversify your wealth internationally UBS Swiss Financial Advisers offers US investors a safe, easy and tax-compliant way to diversify their assets abroad. Contents 3 Why
More informationMULTI-ASSET STRATEGIES REDEFINING THE UNIVERSE APRIL 2014
MULTI-ASSET STRATEGIES REDEFINING THE UNIVERSE APRIL 2014 INTRODUCTION Loved by many, reviled by others, multi-asset strategies are undeniably a key feature of the investment landscape. In the US they
More informationSeeking a More Efficient Fixed Income Portfolio with Asia Bonds
Seeking a More Efficient Fixed Income Portfolio with Asia s Seeking a More Efficient Fixed Income Portfolio with Asia s Drawing upon different drivers for performance, Asia fixed income may improve risk-return
More informationDeutsche Global Infrastructure Fund (TOLLX)
Global Infrastructure Fund (TOLLX) A step beyond MLPs Important risk information Any fund that concentrates in a particular segment of the market will generally be more volatile than a fund that invests
More informationEuropean Freight Forwarding Index
European Freight Forwarding Index 14 January 13 Erik Bergöö erbe@danskebank.dk +45 45 12 36 Søren Toft stof@danskebank.dk +45 45 12 53 Important disclosures and certifications are contained from page 12
More informationInformation on our MiFID order handling & execution policy
Public Information on our MiFID order handling & execution policy Product General Procedure - Foreign Exchange This is a supplement to the information on our MiFID order handling & execution policy July
More informationResearch Commodities El Niño returns grains and soft commodities at risk
Investment Research General Market Conditions 20 May 2015 Research Commodities El Niño returns grains and soft commodities at risk Meteorologists now agree that El Niño has arrived and project that it
More information} } Global Markets. Currency options. Currency options. Introduction. Options contracts. Types of options contracts
Global Markets Currency options Currency options Introduction Currency options have gained acceptance as invaluable tools in managing foreign exchange risk. They are extensively used and bring a much wider
More informationBANK FOR INTERNATIONAL SETTLEMENTS P.O. BOX, 4002 BASLE, SWITZERLAND
BANK FOR INTERNATIONAL SETTLEMENTS P.O. BOX, 4002 BASLE, SWITZERLAND PRESS RELEASE CENTRAL BANK SURVEY OF FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES MARKET ACTIVITY IN APRIL 1998: PRELIMINARY GLOBAL DATA The BIS
More informationGlobal Client Group The Gateway to AWM
Global Client Group The Gateway to AWM January 2013 For professional investors only Content 1 2 3 Deutsche Bank and Asset Global Client Group Our product and service offering 1 Deutsche Bank A global partner
More informationSberbank Group s IFRS Results for 6 Months 2013. August 2013
Sberbank Group s IFRS Results for 6 Months 2013 August 2013 Summary of 6 Months 2013 performance: Income Statement Net profit reached RUB 174.5 bn (or RUB 7.95 per ordinary share), a 0.5% decrease on RUB
More informationSeven-year asset class forecast returns, 2015 update
Schroders Seven-year asset class forecast returns, 2015 update Craig Botham Emerging Markets Economist Introduction Our seven-year returns forecast builds on the same methodology which has been applied
More informationTariffs & Charges Schedule for Investment Services
I. ADVISORY TRADING IN INTERNATIONAL SECURITIES EQUITIES, ETFs (Buy & Sell Orders) next (Belgium, France, Netherlands); Germany (Xetra); Italy (Borsa Italiana) minimum EUR 30.00 United Kingdom (London
More informationGlobal Equity Trading Volumes Surge 36% in 1 st half 2015 driven by Mainland China
Global Equity Trading Volumes Surge 36% in 1 st half 215 driven by Mainland China Global Equity Trading Volumes Ex Mainland China Up 5% Mainland China Share Trading Vols Rise 166% in H1 215 vs H2 214 The
More informationTHE US DOLLAR, THE EURO, THE JAPANESE YEN AND THE CHINESE YUAN IN THE FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS
THE US DOLLAR, THE EURO, THE JAPANESE YEN AND THE CHINESE YUAN IN THE FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS ORASTEAN Ramona Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Romania Abstract: This paper exposes
More informationFinancial Repression: A Driving Force for Mergers and Acquisitions?
Strategy / Investment Financial Repression: A Driving Force for Mergers and Acquisitions? International capital markets have seen a growing number of corporate mergers and acquisitions (M&A) over the past
More informationFxPro Education. Introduction to FX markets
FxPro Education Within any economy, consumers and businesses use currency as a medium of exchange. In the UK, pound sterling is the national currency, while in the United States it is the US dollar. Modern
More informationJustifying the investment budget
Justifying the investment budget Professional Pensions DC Conference, 12 April 2016 Tim Horne DC Investment Solutions Manager, Schroders For professional investors only. This material is not suitable for
More informationFixed Income ETFs 301 International Fixed Income ETFs. Presenter: RONIT WALNY SVP and Global Product Manager with PIMCO
Fixed Income ETFs 301 International Fixed Income ETFs Presenter: RONIT WALNY SVP and Global Product Manager with PIMCO Inside Fixed Income Conference November 2015 Pacific Investment Management Company
More informationCENTRAL BANKS, EUR & GEOPOLITICS Camilla Sutton l Chief Currency Strategist (416)866 5470 l camilla.sutton@scotiabank.com
DIAL IN: 905 694 9451 (local to Toronto) PASSCODE: 942 044 097# CONFERENCE CALL COMMANDS Press 1 Skip backward 5 seconds Press 3 Skip forward 5 Press 4 Skip backward 5 minutes Press 6 Skip forward 5 minutes
More informationThe Charts That Matter
The Charts That Matter December 22, 2014 published twice a month Investir.ch powered by SEQUOIA Group - L.Schmid 1 In a nutshell Assets 22.12 S/T view 22.12 L/T view 02.12 S/T view 02.12 L/T view Comments
More informationHSBC Asian High Yield Bond Fund
Important information: HSBC Asian High Yield Bond Fund (the Fund ) invests primarily in a broad range of higher yielding Asian fixed income securities and instruments. Investments of the Fund may include
More informationEnergy Briefing: Global Crude Oil Demand & Supply
Energy Briefing: Global Crude Oil Demand & Supply November 6, 215 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 eyardeni@ Debbie Johnson 48-664-1333 djohnson@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the
More informationBOURSE SECURITIES LIMITED
Price per barrel ($) Price per mmbtu ($) BOURSE SECURITIES LIMITED May 4 th, 2015 Oil prices up, Investors gain Today we at Bourse discuss the recent recovery in global oil prices and consider some of
More informationBrazil So Bad, It s Good Michael Novogratz, CIO, Fortress Liquid Markets
Brazil So Bad, It s Good Michael Novogratz, CIO, Fortress Liquid Markets All information contained herein is qualified in its entirety by the disclaimer at the beginning of this presentation. Disclaimer
More informationMERCER PORTFOLIO SERVICE MONTHLY REPORT
MERCER PORTFOLIO SERVICE MONTHLY REPORT MAY 206 Mercer Superannuation (Australia) Limited ABN 79 004 77 533 Australian Financial Services Licence # 235906 is the trustee of the Mercer Portfolio Service
More informationTrends and Technology A Capital Markets Perspective
EQUITY I RESEARCH Trends and Technology A Capital Markets Perspective RBC Capital Markets, LLC Jonathan Atkin (Analyst) (415) 633-8589 jonathan.atkin@rbccm.com January 2013 All values in U.S. dollars unless
More informationAre we living in a Bond Bubble? Oliver Sinnott Fixed Income Strategist April 2014
Are we living in a Bond Bubble? Oliver Sinnott Fixed Income Strategist April 2014 Global Financial Crisis saw debt levels soar to highest since WWII Governments were too highly indebted to significantly
More informationMonthly European ETF Market Trends SEPTEMBER 2015 in brief
LYXOR ETF BAROMETER OCTOBER 215 1 THIS DOCUMENT IS FOR THE E XCLUSIVE USE OF INVESTORS ACTING ON THEIR OWN ACCOUNT AND CATEGORIZED EITHER AS ELIGIBLE COUNTERPARTIES OR PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS WITHIN THE ME
More informationHSBC Global Investment Funds Global Equity Volatility Focused
Important information: The Fund invests primarily in global equities. The Fund is subject to the risks of investing in emerging markets. For certain classes of the Fund, the Fund may pay dividends out
More informationMonthly European ETF Market Trends OCTOBER 2015 in brief
LYXOR ETF BAROMETER NOVEMBER 215 1 THIS DOCUMENT IS FOR THE E XCLUSIVE USE OF INVESTORS ACTING ON THEIR OWN ACCOUNT AND CATEGORIZED EITHER AS ELIGIBLE COUNTERPARTIES OR PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS WITHIN THE
More informationCommodities not finding much traction despite USD weakness
Commodities not finding much traction despite USD weakness Commodities continued to show weakness into the second week of 2013 despite rising stock markets and a falling US dollar. Investors are generally
More informationAbsolute return: The search for positive returns in changing markets
Absolute return: The search for positive returns in changing markets Tuesday, 7 June 2011 Portfolio Manager for Global Fixed Income and Absolute Return Funds www.dbadvisors.com Topics for discussion What
More informationDiversify your wealth internationally
ab UBS Swiss Financial Advisers Diversify your wealth internationally UBS Swiss Financial Advisers offers US investors a safe, easy and tax-compliant way to diversify their assets abroad. Contents 3 Why
More informationInvestment Outlook. and The Attraction of Dividends CHB CONFERENCE CANACCORD GENUITY
MONTREAL 2014 CHB CONFERENCE CANACCORD GENUITY Investment Outlook Currencies Interest Rates Commodities and The Attraction of Dividends Economic Cycle Momentum Risk Premium Martin Roberge, M.Sc., CFA Portfolio
More informationGold Recap. Spread JAN6 FEB6 APR6 JUN6 DEC5 1.3 1.3 0.6-0.3 JAN6 - -0.7-1.6 FEB6-0.7-1.6 APR6-0.9. OI Gold. Chg.
Economic Data December 21, 2015 Country Economic Data Actual Expected Previous JPY All Industry Activity Index M/M Oct 1.00% 0.80% -0.20% JPY BoJ Monthly Report EUR German PPI M/M Nov -0.20% -0.20% -0.40%
More informationDAILY FX OUTLOOK. Thursday, October 08, 2015 Major FX Themes. FX Strategy/Trading Ideas. Asian FX
DAILY FX OUTLOOK Thursday, October 08, 2015 Major FX Themes In spite of firmer UST yields, the USD ended mixed against the majors on Wednesday. Improved risk appetite saw the antipodeans gaining against
More informationAccess the world. with Schwab Global Investing Services
Access the world with Schwab Global Investing Services 78% of developed country equity market growth between 2000 and 2012 came from outside the U.S. 1 60% of developed country stock market capitalization
More informationThe Case for International Fixed Income
The Case for International Fixed Income June 215 Introduction Investing in fixed-income securities outside of the United States is often perceived as a riskier strategy than deploying those assets domestically,
More informationINVESTMENT CONFERENCE
INVESTMENT CONFERENCE Knowing where to look Guy de Blonay Fund Management Director 16 September 2015 ON THE PLANET TO PERFORM 1 Our approach in brief Objective Long-term capital growth principally through
More informationThe benchmark portfolio for the Government Pension Fund Global
Letter to the Ministry of Finance The benchmark portfolio for the Government Pension Fund Global 1. Background In its letter dated 20 June 2008, the Ministry of Finance asked for Norges Bank s recommendations
More informationr a t her t han a s a f e haven
r a t her t han a s a f e haven For Professional Advisers only - not for onward distribution Investors exposure to gold continues to grow but we believe that more consideration of the risks is needed.
More informationDaily Close Above 1.1116 Would Signal More Protracted Retracement Phase
12 June 2009 USD/CAD on Verge of Bullish Trend Reversal Global FX Strategy George Davis, CMT Chief Technical Analyst RBC Dominion Securities Inc. +1 416 842 6633 george.davis@rbccm.com Daily Close Above
More informationNew Impala Bond Offering: Scottish Widows plc. September 2013
New Impala Bond Offering: Scottish Widows plc September 2013 pg 2 Agenda Performance of the existing Impala bonds: LSE 4.75% and Barclays 14% Floating Rate Notes Brief overview of Scottish Widows plc business
More informationFranklin Templeton Investment Funds
Franklin Templeton Investment Funds Online ID Name CRNCY Description L4058R498 FRANK EUROPEAN GRWTH A ACC EUR The Fund's objective is long term capital appreciation. The Fund invests at least two thirds
More informationFor professional investors and advisors only. Not suitable for retail clients. Schroder Life Flexible Retirement Fund
May 2016 For professional investors and advisors only. Not suitable for retail clients. Schroder Life Flexible Retirement Fund Improving the DC journey Members in a defined contribution (DC) pension scheme
More informationGlobal high yield: We believe it s still offering value December 2013
Global high yield: We believe it s still offering value December 2013 02 of 08 Global high yield: we believe it s still offering value Patrick Maldari, CFA Senior Portfolio Manager North American Fixed
More informationChapter 16: Financial Risk Management
Chapter 16: Financial Risk Management Introduction Overview of Financial Risk Management in Treasury Interest Rate Risk Foreign Exchange (FX) Risk Commodity Price Risk Managing Financial Risk The Benefits
More information2013 Half Year Results
2013 Half Year Results Erwin Stoller, Executive Chairman Joris Gröflin, Chief Financial Officer Agenda 1. Introduction and summary of first half year 2013 2. Financial results first half year 2013 3. Outlook
More informationPerformance 2013: Global Stock Markets
Performance 213: Global Stock Markets January 4, 214 Dr. Edward Yardeni 16-972-7683 eyardeni@ Mali Quintana 48-664-1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box Table Of
More informationPortfolio Bonds. Balanced Growth
Portfolio Bonds Balanced Growth SALE PERIOD: 1 June 4 September 2015 INVESTMENT PERIOD: About 6 years REFERENCE ASSETS: 3 equity indices which represent the US, European and Pan Asian markets Portfolio
More informationCapital preservation strategy update
Client Education Summit 2012 Capital preservation strategy update Head of Institutional Fixed Income Investments, Americas October 9, 2012 Topics for discussion 1 Capital preservation strategies 2 3 4
More informationStocks rebound as Emerging Market worries subside. Ukraine s turmoil causes currency to plummet. Strong performance from high yield bonds
Butterfield Asset Management In vestm ent Views March 2014 Equities Currencies Bonds Stocks rebound as Emerging Market worries subside Ukraine s turmoil causes currency to plummet Strong performance from
More informationStaying alive: Bond strategies for a normalising world
Staying alive: Bond strategies for a normalising world Dr Peter Westaway Chief Economist, Europe Vanguard Asset Management November 2013 This document is directed at investment professionals and should
More informationGlobal Investing 2013 Morningstar. All Rights Reserved. 3/1/2013
Global Investing 2013 Morningstar. All Rights Reserved. 3/1/2013 World Stock Market Capitalization Year-end 2012 18.5% 9.6% United States International: Other Europe United Kingdom Japan Other Pacific
More information