Action 4.1: Rail services demand and supply Final Report

Transcription

1 Action 4.1: Rail services demand and supply Final Report CEI PP02 18/09/2013

2 Table of contents 1 Introduction SEE railway network connecting R4S hubs General data sources Rail passenger transport in SEE SEE railway network SEE rail passenger traffic flows R4S hubs and TEN-T network Rail transport as-is situation at transnational level WP4 transport data collection and analysis process RAIL4SEE hubs rail passenger connections Bologna Bratislava Bucharest Budapest Ljubljana Sofia Thessaloniki Trieste Venice Vienna Zagreb Conclusions Hubs and Catchment areas Rail Connections (Direct Indirect) Transnational relations: a general evaluation ::: 1 :::

3 References ANNEX: WP4 Data set requirements by Action ::: 2 :::

4 1 Introduction The present document provides the AS-IS report on rail transnational transport carried out within the Action 4.1 of the RAIL4SEE project. RAIL4SEE - Rail Hub Cities for SEE - is funded by the South East Europe (SEE) transnational cooperation programme and aims at contributing to the improvement of rail and Public Transport (PT) in SEE. In fact RAIL4SEE objective is to provide passengers in SEE with an attractive and efficient Public Transport System based primarily on rail. Therefore the currently experienced low PT usage in SEE will be tackled by means of different measured, related to different levels of analysis; with reference to the transnational level, they will include the support to high speed and long distance connections among the hubs of the study area, while at urban and national level they will encompass the development of coherent and stable local networks, feeding the previous ones (at transnational level). In particular, RAIL4SEE aims at contributing to the future EU policy making actions by providing, as regards the above-mentioned issues, models, concepts and harmonised strategies for the improvement of intermodal rail based passenger transport in the study area. The analysis is mainly focused on 11 hubs (Bologna, Venice, Trieste, Ljubljana, Vienna, Bratislava, Budapest, Thessaloniki, Sofia, Zagreb and Bucharest) in which the RAIL4SEE project partners are acting (see Figure 1). Figure 1- RAIL4SEE hubs and reference area ::: 3 :::

5 Within Rail4See project workflow, WP4 answers the need for a clear quantitative and qualitative picture of passengers flows in South East Europe, thus providing a valid support for an adequate transport planning and managing process. In this sense it presents the SEE situation in terms of transport flows analysis as to fix and characterise the rail-based transport network connecting hubs as basis for the WP5 and WP3 (pilot) activities. On this purpose, the WP deals with transport demand and supply at the two territorial levels tackled by the project: the metropolitan/regional and the transnational level. Starting from technical assessment and quantitative facts, the WP will elaborate on the network of first level (Hub) cities of the SEE by defining the present strategic and operational role of each one in relation to other regional and national hubs (functional integration analysis). Within such general vision, the specific WP objectives are: Systematisation of all main technical sources on SEE rail passenger transport; Usability of the transport model outcomes for stakeholders; Complete knowledge on feeder-primary networks of services for accessibility from/among the Hub railway systems to be shared with collective public/private transport stakeholders, thus fostering the set up of new services; Definition of a network of first level (Hub) cities of the SEE. In order to achieve such results, WP4 activities are structured according to five actions: 1. Action 4.1: Rail services demand and supply 2. Action 4.2: Modelling methodological framework 3. Action 4.3: Regional and transnational flows analysis in a multimodal perspective (rail, sea, air, road) 4. Action4.4: Regional and transnational services analysis 5. Action 4.5: Network of first level Hub cities Among the main issues to be tackled, data collection is of particular relevance, being a critical and time consuming activity even and, obviously, a fundamental prerequisite in order to lay consistent basis for each further step. In this purpose, action 4.1 deals with the AS IS situation of rail services demand and supply leading to the modelling activity, that will be carried out in successive stages. Therefore Action 4.1 has been carried out in tight coordination with the other WP4 activities thus performing an overall preliminary stage of data collection and harmonisation. It implied collecting databases on O/D, empiric analysis already made, past and ongoing projects contents. The investigation dealt with both public and private data sources and an active contribution was made by each partner, with reference to its hub, according to a unified approach. This unique approach was based on different specific tables for data collection, developed with a strong support by other actions leaders and discussed with partners during project consortium technical meetings. The presentation of action 4.1 outcomes and methodology will be carried out in this report according to the following sequence of chapters. ::: 4 :::

6 1. SEE railway network connecting R4S hubs, providing the general description of the rail network connecting SEE, emphasising related opportunities and criticalities. It includes the evaluation of particular aspects related to the EU integration as interoperability issues and the liberalisation process of rail passenger market. Moreover a specific attention will be paid to the description of hub s positioning with reference to the developing TEN-T network and related corridors. 2. Rail transport as-is situation at transnational level, describes the methodology developed for data collection along with the results achieved. The presentation of results is specifically referred to each hub, providing an insight to the related demand and supply of rail passenger transport. 3. Conclusions bring the analysis to a wider perspective, embracing all SEE and integrating specific rail transport assessment with broader spatial planning and development argumentations. ::: 5 :::

7 2 SEE railway network connecting R4S hubs In the present chapter a description of SEE railway network will be performed, thus providing a background analysis for connections among RAIL4SEE hubs. In fact, especially with reference to rail transnational transport the situation of connecting links and related services can severely hamper the development of connections between nodes that, potentially, could be much more interrelated. In order to provide a thorough picture of SEE railway network, this chapter starts with a brief description of relevant data sources, then proceeds presenting the relevant aspects of the railway network and passengers flows in the current situation; the last part of the chapter focuses on the perspective of the EU integration process by describing the relevant issues of TEN-T development proposal for SEE area. 2.1 General data sources TEN-Tec TEN-Tec is the information system designed by the EU commission for coordinating and supporting the TEN-T policy. It stores and manages technical and financial data but also provides an easy-to-use web-interface, thus acting as a bridge between EU institution and other actors (from Member States ministries to the wide public of professionals and citizens). A dynamic webgis has become operative in the last months and is still undergoing some further improvements. However the information currently provided to external users are quite limited. In fact its major usage, at this stage, is providing the user with the possibility of a user friendly web-tool for submitting proposals concerning TEN-T network implementation. UIC A major source of information concerning railway transport in general (and in particular also with reference to SEE) is represented by UIC (Union Internationale des Chemins de fer) organisation. UIC mission is to promote rail transport at world level and meet the challenges of mobility and sustainable development. Therefore it provides a vast set of technical information offering updated statics and documenting advancements with reference to the various aspects related to rail transport. SEETO The analysed context is covered by specific strategies and managing bodies as the SEETO (South East Europe Transport Observatory), a regional transport organisation established by a specific Memorandum of Understanding for the development of the Core Regional Transport Network and signed by Western Balkans area governments 1. The aim of 1 The SEETO Memorandum of Understanding was signed on June 11th, 2004 by the Governments of Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Montenegro and Serbia and the United Nations Mission in Kosovo and the European Commission. ::: 6 :::

8 the SEETO is to promote cooperation on the development of the main and ancillary infrastructures on the multimodal SEETO Comprehensive Network,to enhance local capacity for the implementation of investment programmes as well as data collection and analysis on the SEETO Comprehensive Network. On this purpose it promotes a data collection process with reference to the status and planned realisations concerning multimodal transport network in the area. SEETAC The South East European Transport Axis Cooperation (SEETAC) project was funded under the South East Europe Programme. SEETAC aimed at analysing a possible integration between the Western Balkans (WB) and the EU transport systems in order to generate transport continuity and infrastructure development in the European area and beyond; therefore it is implicitly leading to a rising in competitiveness and economic development with the ultimate aim to integrate the WB countries in the European single market. It tackled both administrative problems, such as missing institutional and legal transnational framework as well as common safety, security and environmental standards and harmonisation of transport modes. The analysis performed was supported by a transport modelling activity dealing with main relevant transport links in a multimodal perspective (i.e. dealing with roads, rails and waterways) and with reference both to passengers and freight traffic. Such network analysis, supported by a data collection process which involved SEETAC partners, allows performing wide area evaluations. Therefore it provides a relevant background for the more specific analysis requested in RAIL4SEE (which, instead, focuses on passenger traffic among specific hubs). 2.2 Rail passenger transport in SEE The use of rail transport by passengers is generally limited in SEE, in particular with reference to long distance connections. Such situation is in ever growing contradiction with the goals of EU integration and environmental sustainability. Apart from current limitations of transport demand, the main reasons of such situation are connected also with various problems affecting SEE railways: limited size, fragmentation, aged infrastructure and rolling stock, and poor operating and financial performance. The following pages will provide an overview of the main SEE rail passenger transport with reference to both railway network and travelling traffic flows SEE railway network As previously anticipated, low quality of SEE rail infrastructure is among the main obstacles preventing many travellers from using this mode of transport. In fact SEE railway network can be described as an atomised network of much the same density (track km per square km) as Western Europe, with less than half the traffic density, a third of the total labour productivity, and a fraction of the per capita income. The political barriers being overcome by the EU integration process, which is obviously at earlier stages with respect to Western Europe, are among the main reasons for it. Moreover, since the 1990s, insufficient maintenance and innovations sometimes have severely hampered performance and competitiveness of rail connections (e.g. speed restrictions). Major chances for future improvements rely on the enhancement of relevant corridors and links as those interested by the TEN-T network (see following chapter). ::: 7 :::

9 Concerning current status of the network (Figure 2 and Figure 3), it must be noted a high share of not electrified tracks. On the other hand, in case of electrified links there is, especially in the Balkans, a higher homogeneity with respect to other parts of Europe (e.g. Central Europe). This aspect is, obviously, of particular relevance with reference to interoperability issues in transnational transport. With regards to the number of tracks, the predominance of single track links testifies, once more, the limited capacity of many connections. In addition, discontinuities can also be seen in relevant transnational corridors. In fact none of them experiences continuity in the presence of double tracks crossing the Western Balkans or the Hungary-Romania border. Figure 2 SEE railway network electricity supply grafo_add RAILWAY NETWORK by TYPE_ELECT ELECTRIFICATION NON ELECTRIFIED DC all others AC AC ::: 8 :::

10 Figure 3 SEE railway network number of tracks RAILWAY NETWORK NUMBER OF TRACKS 1 2 or more SEE rail passenger traffic flows In general for SEE countries recent years have been marked by a declining pattern in rail passenger flows. As it emerged from a recent study by the World Bank ( Railway Reform in South East Europe and Turkey on the Right Track?, 2011) rail traffic, considering both passengers and freight, was lower in 2009 than it was in either 2001 or2005. As represented in Figure 4 it has diminished from about 56 billion traffic units in 2005 to about 45 billion in A different pattern have characterised rail traffic in the Western Balkan countries - driven primarily by freight traffic which plays a major role in terms of traffic leading to a value of about 10 billions traffic units in 2009, which was 22 percent higher than the comparable level in In fact passenger traffic declined also in Western Balkans, even though with better performances with respect to other countries. International passenger services, usually charging the highest tariffs, are reported to be profitable while other services have lower tariffs, are frequently loss-making. However, as a consequence of the economic crisis and low number of passengers, several international routes were recently cancelled. Obviously the effects of the crisis are amplified by the lack of investments and previously discussed network problems, thus leading to a low performance service not appealing for the users. Moreover subsidising international rail passenger traffic is becoming less common while increasing fees are charged from rail stakeholder for using the infrastructures. The resulting current situation is characterised, for instance, by only one train connecting Croatia and Western Europe with Serbia and only one connecting Hungary and Serbia. Another relevant change was due to the fact that from 2011 ::: 9 :::

11 international trains from Greece are not operating any more. Figure 4 Rail Traffic in SEE General statistics are confirmed by the analyses of the SEETAC project outcomes. In particular with reference to passengers flows in the railway network links (Figure 1), it emerges a high level of discrepancies between different areas. In fact the Western part shows higher values. In South-Eastern Balkans, instead, relatively significant flows are registered only in some links in Bulgaria and Romania. ::: 10 :::

12 Figure 5 - SEE railway network passengers flows (SEETAC project) ::: 11 :::

13 2.3 R4S hubs and TEN-T network The aim of developing a transport network supporting the EU integration process led to the development of the trans- European network concept (for transport, energy and telecommunications). The trans-european transport network (TEN-T) was put in place by adopting the Decision No. 1692/96/EC of the EP and of the Council on Community Guidelines for the Development of the Trans-European Transport Network (by Decision No. 884/2004/EC with respect to the accession of the new MS). The decision mentioned above also defined 30 Priority projects (PPs) that shall be in the highest focus for future transport infrastructure development until the 2020 horizon. Majority of TEN-T PPs consist of railway infrastructure developments which complies with the general EU goals towards higher multimodality, sustainability, interoperability and effectiveness of international transportation chains on the continent. However, all the 4 major modes of transport are included in the defined PPs to ensure that major road axes as well as maritime, inland waterway and air transport are supported. Additionally there are several technology-oriented and procedural measures being addressed within TEN-T PPs, such as ERTMS (European Railway Traffic Management System) implementation, Galileo or ATM/SESAR. One of the PPs (namely PP 21 is dedicated to the development of a strategic concept of the Motorways of the Sea. Present status of TEN-T PPs is presented on the following figure coming from the Progress report dated May Figure 6 - Progress on TEN-T Priority Projects (May 2010). Source: DG MOVE (TEN-T Executive Agency) ::: 12 :::

14 Recently, in order to address current needs and objectives of the TEN-T network in compliance with the overall EU transport policy and strategy Europe 2020, by means of a complex strategic review process, elaborated (October 2011) a new Proposal for a Regulation of the EP and of the Council on Union guidelines for the development of the trans- European transport network (COM(2011) 650/2). The EC introduced the concept of 2 layers: a Comprehensive Network and a Core Network. While the Core network constitutes a basic element of the European transport system supporting developing EU single market with expected completion by 2030, the Comprehensive network is a more complex and dense layer aiming at ensuring better accessibility of regions throughout the continent, and its completions is assumed by Figure 7 TEN-T Core Network (EU Member States): Railways (passengers) and airports in SEE ::: 13 :::

15 EU bodies are focusing on priority developments across the TEN-T Core network and, to better support achieving overall goals of a new European transport policy the Core Network Corridors as a governance instrument to facilitate the coordinated implementation of the TEN-T was introduced. Core Network Corridors (hereafter CNC ) represent a key innovative element of the revised dual-layer TEN-T network and constitute a major step toward more integrated and consistent corridor approach aiming to substitute the too segregated and disconnected Priority Projects concept. CNC shall be based on modal integration, interoperability, as well as on a coordinated development and management of infrastructure, in order to lead to resource-efficient multimodal transport. The following table and figure present the 10 corridors identified within the Core network. RAIL4SEE hubs are crossed by 5 CNCs, thus confirming the relevance of the analysed connections. N 1, Baltic Adriatic, Helsinki/Gdansk Ravenna N 3, Mediterranean, Algeciras Kosice N 4, Hamburg (Piraeus) Lefkosia N 5, Helsinki Valletta N 10, Strasbourg Danube Table 1 - List of the TEN-T Core Network Corridors CNC number Geographical delimitation Description of routing 1 Baltic Adriatic Corridor Helsinki Tallinn Riga Kaunas Warszawa Katowice Gdynia Katowice Katowice Ostrava Brno Wien Katowice Žilina Bratislava Wien Wien Graz Klagenfurt Villach Udine Venezia Bologna Ravenna 2 Warszawa Berlin Amsterdam/Rotterdam Felixstowe Midlands BY border Warzsawa Poznań Frankfurt/Oder Berlin Hannover Osnabrück Enschede Utrecht Amsterdam/Rotterdam Felixstowe Birmingham/Manchester Liverpool 3 Mediterranean Corridor Algeciras Madrid Tarragona Sevilla Valencia Tarragona Tarragona Barcelona Perpignan Lyon Torino Milano Venezia Ljubljana Budapest UA border ::: 14 :::

16 4 Hamburg Rostock Burgas/TR border Piraeus Lefkosia Hamburg / Rostock Berlin Praha Brno Bratislava Budapest Arad Timişoara Sofia Sofia Burgas/TR border Sofia Thessaloniki Piraeus Limassol Lefkosia 5 Helsinki Valletta Helsinki Turku Stockholm Malmö København Fehmarn Hamburg Hannover Bremen Hannover Nürnberg München Brenner Verona Bologna Roma Napoli Bari Napoli Palermo Valletta 6 Genova Rotterdam Genova Milano/Novara Simplon/Lötschberg/Gotthard Basel Mannheim Köln Köln Düsseldorf Rotterdam/Amsterdam Köln Liège Bruxelles/Brussel Zeebrugge 7 Lisboa - Strasbourg Sines / Lisboa Madrid Valladolid Lisboa Aveiro Oporto Aveiro Valladolid Vitoria Bordeaux Paris Mannheim/Strasbourg 8 Dublin London Paris Brussel/Bruxelles Belfast Dublin Holyhead Birmingham Glasgow/Edinburgh Birmingham Birmingham London Lille Brussel/Bruxelles Dublin/Cork/Southampton Le Havre Paris London Dover Calais Paris 9 Amsterdam Basel/Lyon Marseille Amsterdam Rotterdam Antwerp Brussel/Bruxelles Luxembourg Luxembourg Dijon Lyon Luxembourg Strasbourg Basel 10 Strasbourg Danube Corridor Strasbourg Stuttgart München Wels/Linz Strasbourg Mannheim Frankfurt Würzburg Nürnberg Regensburg Passau Wels/Linz Wels/Linz Wien Budapest Arad Brašov Bucurešti Constanta - Sulina ::: 15 :::

17 Figure 8 - Schematic representation of proposed 10 TEN-T Core Network Corridors. Geographically, at the continental level, these corridors occupy the entire eastern part of Europe from north to south and include the Baltic area, Central Europe and South Eastern Europe In perspective, these terrestrial networks, most of which need to be modernized, could provide services to connect the EEA with other European macro regions outside the EEA. The location of the corridors, along with a relevant number of crossroads, underline the existence of particular regions that act as intersections and junctions on the main European thoroughfares. In particular, there are 3 main areas: - The northern central Danube area that includes Vienna, Bratislava and Budapest - The northern Adriatic area that includes Bologna, Venice, Trieste, Ljubljana and Zagreb - The southern EEA with Thessaloniki, Sofia and Bucharest, although these are less geographically integrated. The Danube cluster includes the intersection of corridors N. 1, 3, and 9, created to connect the Baltic with the Adriatic, the Western Mediterranean with the Danube area and the Rhine area with the Black Sea. The North Adriatic cluster includes the intersection of corridors N. 1, 3, 5, created to connect the North Sea and the Baltic Sea with the Central Eastern Mediterranean, and the Po Valley to the Danube area. The southern EEA cluster, characterised by a greater distance between hubs, contains the intersection of corridors N 4 and 9 that converge in the Danube area to connect with the denser European network. On the continental scale, the function of this large mesh cluster is to promote neighbourly relations with the Extra EU territories on the Black Sea and ::: 16 :::

18 the Eastern Mediterranean. This cluster s internal links appear less consolidated, for historical and geographical reasons, but currently there are greater opportunities for integration than in the past and there is a desire to improve internal connections. The development of the corridors also highlights the existence of a central empty area. This area covers the West Balkans, which contain a number of infrastructural networks connecting the northern EEA to the southern EEA through a series of important nodes that have a distributive function in relation to the project hubs. Figure 9 - TEN-T Core Network in western Balkans: Railways (passengers) and airports ::: 17 :::

19 Actually this area is characterised by a different level of involvement in the EU integration process (mostly at the stage of candidate members). The development of related Core Regional Transport Network is the object already mentioned SEETO (see previous chapter). In the previous figures is presented the Western Balkans core network for rail passenger transport according to DG-MOVE proposal. ::: 18 :::

20 3 Rail transport as-is situation at transnational level In the present chapter the analysis of each RAIL4SEE hub will be deepened with reference to actual demand and supply of rail passenger transport services. The data represented are the result of a data collection process aimed at integrating missing information from external sources, which was carried out with the involvement of all project partners. In the first paragraph the data collection will be briefly described while in the second paragraph the detailed presentation of results will be done focusing on each hub. 3.1 WP4 transport data collection and analysis process Within RAIL4SEE WP4 data collection on transnational transport even though regarding different actions (4.1 concerning rail while 4.3 and 4.4 dealing with multimodal demand and supply) was performed jointly as to avoid duplications and ensure higher methodological coherence. Available data sources proved able to provide a good background description, presented in the previous chapter; however they were deemed insufficient for thoroughly describing the specific characteristics of demand and supply affecting the connections between RAIL4SEE hubs. Therefore a data request was performed to project partners (PPs) who filled in a pre-defined set of tables with values referred to the hub of their competence. The table structures and the explanations needed for correctly filling them are described in the ANNEX 1, reporting the document that has circulated as a guideline for the data collection. Such document was the result of a strong cooperation between different action leaders (especially those in charge of action 4.1 and action 4.3). In the following pages only results related to action 4.1 (rail transport and demand) will be presented, while for a description of the outcomes concerning multimodal transport, the reader is invited to refer to a 4.3 and 4.4 deliverable. The common starting point for WP4 analysis has been defined as the Catchment area 2 or Hinterland meant as the geographical area from which it attracts trips. Specific characteristics concerning neighbouring land uses affect deeply the geographical extents to which a hub remains attractive. Therefore the catchment area cannot be predefined for all cases, since each hub represents a special case. In addition, the extent of the catchment area may vary, given also planned or future investments and developments. Thus, since the catchment area s extent cannot be predetermined in a strict geographical context (i.e. a radius of 250km around a city), PPs have been asked to identifying the set of NUTS3 which make up their hub s catchment area. Transnational rail passenger supply data requested were related to services connecting each couple of hub. Both direct and indirect (i.e. characterised by at least one interchange) connections were investigated. Moreover demand data have been collected with reference to actual passengers travelling from each hub catchment area to each other hub catchment area. It must be noted that, given the long distance of such relations, this information is generally (i.e. with reference to commonly available data sources) missing or rather broadly estimated. 2 This catchment area concept has been defined with reference to a multimodal perspective (4.3 action), but applies also to the rail specific case. ::: 19 :::

21 Following the data provision from PPs, the whole data set has been assembled, performing also a consistency and completeness check. In particular, data related to connections of the same couple of hubs in opposite direction (that on yearly base area not likely to be sensitively different) where confronted. Missing and inconsistent data have been fixed by means of official timetables, with reference to transport services supply, and using adequate estimation procedures, with reference to demand. In particular a gravitational model was used for evaluating the level of demand between hubs. Figure 10 Number of daily rail direct connections between RAIL4SEE hubs The main relevant aspects, instead, both dealing with supply and demand are presented and comment in the following pages. 3.2 RAIL4SEE hubs rail passenger connections The present chapter is structured in different chapters characterised by similar content but each one focusing on a specific hub, thus presenting the related main results of the data collection process carried out. ::: 20 :::

22 3.2.1 Bologna Bologna is a highly relevant node with relevance to the RAIL4SEE area linking them also to other relevant transport axis. Such importance is also testified but the inclusion in the TEN-T core network being crossed by two core network corridors: N 1, Baltic Adriatic, Helsinki/Gdansk Ravenna N 5, Helsinki Valletta However the scenario of currently operating connections with the other RAIL4SEE hubs is quite fragmented. The better structured dorsal is the one passing through Venice and Vienna, to the north-east along the Baltic Adriatic corridor. In fact the track Bologna-Venice presents the highest number of direct connections (37 daily) between two RAIL4SEE hubs; going to the transnational context Bologna-Vienna is the only direct connection (night journey of almost 10 hours of duration), and from Vienna can be reached, with other direct trains, Budapest and Bratislava. Links with other hubs are heavily penalized by the number of interchanges and not convenient routes; in fact the passenger to Ljubljana, Bucharest, Sofia, Zagreb and Thessaloniki, due to the interruption of transnational services between Italy and Slovenia, have to pass from the north, on the main Bologna-Vienna connection and change the train in Austria. Finally, it must be noted that the situation of rail transport towards the Balkans is constantly evolving and in the last months, due to the economic crisis, several international connections have been suppressed. Figure 11 Rail direct connections from Bologna to the other RAIL4SEE hubs ::: 21 :::

23 Total travel time 3 within 24 hours (see Figure 12) are needed for reaching other RAIL4SEE SEE apart from those located in the South-Eastern portion of the analysed area (Bucharest, Sofia and Thessaloniki). With reference to other Italian hubs the value is less than 4 hours, while in the others is between 7 and 14. Figure 12 Rail fastest connections travel times from Bologna to other RAIL4SEE hubs Rail passengers demand presents a distribution of values which obviously reflects the easier accessibility of destinations provided with direct connections: Venice and Vienna. However in this case the relation between Bologna doesn t rank in the first position among all RAIL4SE Origin/Destination. In fact it shows lower value than, for instance, Vienna-Bratislava relation. This can be explained also because of rather polycentric characterisation of North-Eastern Italy, thus leading to a composite framework of transport flows. Moreover there is not a high exchange of daily commuters involving both the two hubs of Bologna and Venice. 3 Including waiting times and with reference to fastest connection options. ::: 22 :::

24 Figure 13 Rail passenger demand from Bologna to the other RAIL4SEE hubs ::: 23 :::

25 3.2.2 Bratislava Bratislava hub is characterised by significant short and long distance connections. A part from its relevance for its hinterland embracing a large part of Slovakia, it is facing an increasing integration with the close distance city of Vienna. With reference to long distance connections, it must be noted the inclusion in the TEN-T core network, being crossed by two core network corridors: N 1, Baltic Adriatic N 4, Hamburg Rostock Burgas/TR border Piraeus Lefkosia However, direct connections with the other RAIL4SEE hubs are limited to two cases: Vienna (with more than thirty trains per day) and Budapest. Figure 14 - Rail direct connections from Bratislava to the other RAIL4SEE hubs Extending the analysis to possible indirect connections Total travel time 4 within 24 hours (see Figure 15) are needed for reaching the other RAIL4SEE SEE hubs with the only exception of Thessaloniki. It must be noted the limited time needed in particular for Vienna and Budapest. Concerning rail passenger demand (see Figure 16), it is even higher the predominance of the relation with Vienna, including the trips of many daily commuters. 4 Including waiting times and with reference to fastest connection options. ::: 24 :::

26 Figure 15 Rail fastest connections travel times from Bratislava to other RAIL4SEE hubs Figure 16 Rail passenger demand from Bratislava to the other RAIL4SEE hubs ::: 25 :::

27 3.2.3 Bucharest Bucharest hub is the reference node for a hinterland covering a great part of Romanian territory and is also crossed by the leg of Core Network Corridor 4, Hamburg Rostock Burgas/TR border Piraeus Lefkosia reaching out to the Black Sea. With regards to RAIL4SEE hubs it must be noted relatively great distance even with reference to the neighbouring ones. Concerning the rail supply, direct connections are operating only with reference to Budapest and Sofia (see Figure 17). Figure 17 - Rail direct connections from Bucharest to the other RAIL4SEE hubs Including in the analysis also indirect connections within total travel time 5 24 hours (see Figure 18) it is possible to reach the other 5 RAIL4SEE hubs. It must be noted the relevant time needed given the long distance of many of them. Concerning rail passenger demand (see Figure 19). 5 Including waiting times and with reference to fastest connection options. ::: 26 :::

28 Figure 18 Rail fastest connections travel times from Bucharest to other RAIL4SEE hubs Figure 19 Rail passenger demand from Bucharest to the other RAIL4SEE hubs ::: 27 :::

29 3.2.4 Budapest Budapest hub is the reference node for the hinterland covering a great part of Hungary and is part of the TEN-T core network being crossed by three core network corridors: N 3, Mediterranean, Algeciras Kosice N 4, Hamburg (Piraeus) Lefkosia N 10, Strasbourg Danube Budapest, given its position in the Danubian area, plays a central relevant role in RAIL4SEE area. In fact, as represented in Figure 20, it is characterised by direct connections with 5 other RAIL4SEE hubs (only Vienna is directly connected with a higher number of RAIL4SEE hubs). In particular 10 daily trains are connecting with Vienna and 8 linking to Bratislava. These guarantees, taking into account also indirect connections, a total travel time less than 24 hours in 9 cases (see Figure 21). As far as demand is concerned, obviously there are higher values with reference to Vienna and Bratislava; moreover remarkable values can also be observed in relation to Zagreb. Figure 20 - Rail direct connections from Budapest to the other RAIL4SEE hubs ::: 28 :::

30 Figure 21 Rail fastest connections travel times from Budapest to other RAIL4SEE hubs Figure 22 Rail passenger demand from Budapest to the other RAIL4SEE hubs ::: 29 :::

31 3.2.5 Ljubljana Ljubljana hub is the main reference node for Slovenia and is part of the TEN-T core network being crossed by core network corridor N 3, Mediterranean, Algeciras Kosice. With reference to direct connections currently operating, it must be noted how they are operating towards other hubs of the Danubian area (especially Zagreb) while there is a substantial absence of connections across the Italy-Slovenia border. In fact connections with Italy are guaranteed either by means of intermodal solution, including local bus services, or using Villach rail station as intermediate interchange point. More in general, total travel times less than 24 hours are experienced in 8 cases (see Figure 24). For what concerns the rail passenger demand (Figure 25), higher values are experienced with reference to Zagreb and Budapest. Figure 23 - Rail direct connections from Ljubljana to the other RAIL4SEE hubs ::: 30 :::

32 Figure 24 Rail fastest connections travel times from Ljubljana to other RAIL4SEE hubs Figure 25 Rail passenger demand from Ljubljana to the other RAIL4SEE hubs ::: 31 :::

33 3.2.6 Sofia Sofia hub is the main reference node for Bulgaria and is part of the TEN-T core network being crossed by core network corridor N 4, Hamburg (Piraeus) Lefkosia. Given its position, until recently, direct connections have been operating with Bucharest and Thessaloniki. However, since March 2011, international rail services from Greece were cancelled. Including in the analysis also indirect connections within total travel time 6 24 hours (see Figure 27) it is possible to reach 6 RAIL4SEE hubs (including, with reference to beginning of year 2011 situation, Thessaloniki). It must be noted that, given also the geographical position, in general, the needed time is quite relevant (i.e. > 8 hours). Concerning rail passenger demand (see Figure 28), it is consequently characterised by limited values, although relevant until the remarkably distant Budapest. Figure 26 - Rail direct connections from Sofia to the other RAIL4SEE hubs 7 6 Including waiting times and with reference to fastest connection options. 7 The picture and other data reported refers to the situation before recent changes (2011) that implied the cancellation of services connecting with Thessaloniki. ::: 32 :::

34 Figure 27 Rail fastest connections travel times from Sofia to other RAIL4SEE hubs Figure 28 Rail passenger demand from Sofia to the other RAIL4SEE hubs ::: 33 :::

35 3.2.7 Thessaloniki Thessaloniki hub is the main reference node for Northern Greece and is part of the TEN-T core network being crossed by core network corridor N 4, Hamburg (Piraeus) Lefkosia. Concerning service operating in the network, obviously Thessaloniki has been impacted by the recent (2011) decision of cancelling international trains form/to Greece. However, in order to evaluate situations apart from contingent aspect related to contingent turmoil situation, in the following we are referring to the previous situation, characterised by a direct rail connection with Sofia). Such direction with Sofia is of high relevance, being the only direct connection with another RAIL4SEE hub (Figure 29) and linking to other destination as interchange point. In particular, Table 2 presents rail connections information between Thessaloniki and all Rail4SEE hubs for the reference year 8 (2010). They include main supply data as the cost of connection (in Euros), the duration (in hours and minutes), the distance covered (in kilometres), the frequency (average number of daily connections), the transfers required (number of intermediate transfers) and the route description. Table 2: Supply data for rail connections between Thessaloniki and all Rail4SEE hubs (reference year 2010) To Distance (km) Cost ( ) Duration Transfers Via Frequency Bologna h 57min 5 Sofia, Beograd, Villach, Udine, Venice 1 Bratislava h 51min 2 Sofia, Beograd 1 Bucharest h 23min 1 Sofia 1 Budapest h 29min 2 Sofia, Beograd 1 Ljubljana h 35min 2 Sofia, Beograd 1 Sofia h 0-1 Trieste h 33min 4 Sofia, Beograd, Villach, Gorica Nova 1 Venice h 41min 4 Sofia, Beograd, Villach, Gorica Nova 1 Vienna h 31min 3 Sofia, Beograd, Budapest 1 Zagreb h 07min 2 Sofia, Beograd 1 8 Reference year is defined as the latest available. ::: 34 :::

36 Figure 29 - Rail direct connections from Thessaloniki to the other RAIL4SEE hubs Figure 30 Rail fastest connections travel times from Thessaloniki to other RAIL4SEE hubs Demand data includes the total number of trips conducted with each mode for each connection. Table 3 presents Thessaloniki s 2010 total annual rail trips to the Rail4SEE hubs. ::: 35 :::

37 Table 3: Demand data for all modes between Thessaloniki and all R4S hubs From To Rail ETIS Database 9 Thessaloniki Bologna 3 Thessaloniki Bratislava 304 Thessaloniki Bucharest 72 Thessaloniki Budapest 381 Thessaloniki Ljubljana 217 Thessaloniki Sofia Thessaloniki Trieste 143 Thessaloniki Venice 45 Thessaloniki Vienna 445 Thessaloniki Zagreb 645 The 2010 ETISPlus database is used as a base source for filling in demand data for rail transport. Sources for updating the ETIS database include local service providers (rail TRAINOSE SA), former or currently ongoing projects and other sources. Figure 31 Rail passenger demand from Thessaloniki to the other RAIL4SEE hubs 9 Source: ETISPLUS, 2010 ::: 36 :::

38 In order to present the duration of trips connecting Thessaloniki with all RAIL4SEE hubs, isochrones maps for rail transport have been created. An isochrone10 is defined as a line on a map connecting places from which it takes the same time to travel to a certain point. The reference point is the city of Thessaloniki, while each isochrone line is characterized by a value for time, representing the time needed to reach this point. The following figure presents the isochrones of rail connections for the city of Thessaloniki. Figure 32 Isochrones from Thessaloniki to the rest of SEE Programme Area (source: elaborations by CERTH-HIT) 10 Source: Nicholas Street (2006) Time Contours: Using isochrone visualisation to describe transport network travel cost, Final Report. Department of Computing, Imperial College London ::: 37 :::

39 3.2.8 Trieste Trieste hub is the reference node for a limited portion of Friuli Venice Region in Northern Italy and part of the TEN-T core network, being crossed by core network corridor N1 Baltic-Adriatic and N3 Mediterrean. Obviously it is characterised by a lower dimensional scale with respect to other RAIL4SEE hubs and currently it is also affected by the absence of direct rail connections with the neighbouring Slovenian context (Figure 33). In fact Trieste is directly connected only with Venice, which is also the main Origin/Destination with reference to rail passenger demand (Figure 35). Including in the analysis also indirect connections, within a total travel time 11 of 24 hours (see Figure 34), it is possible to reach 7 RAIL4SEE hubs. It must be noted that, this value is due also to the geographical position, which is relatively central (at least with reference to North-Western portion of RAIL4SEE hubs). In fact it must be recalled, for instance, the relatively high travel time for reaching Ljubljana (for the aforementioned reasons) in comparison to the actual distance. Figure 33 - Rail direct connections from Trieste to the other RAIL4SEE hubs 11 Including waiting times and with reference to fastest connection options. ::: 38 :::

40 Figure 34 Rail fastest connections travel times from Trieste to other RAIL4SEE hubs Figure 35 Rail passenger demand from Trieste to the other RAIL4SEE hubs ::: 39 :::

41 3.2.9 Venice Venice hub is the reference node for the main part of Veneto and Friuli Venezia Giulia regions. Moreover it is included in the core network, being crossed by two core network corridor: N1, Baltic-Adriatic N 3, Mediterrean. Concerning actual rail supply services, Venice presents a high number of connections with other Italian RAIL4SEE hubs; in fact Bologna-Venice presents the highest number of direct connections (37 daily) between two RAIL4SEE hubs, while there are 32 daily trains; going to the transnational context Venice-Vienna is the only direct connection. Furthermore, especially from Vienna, various other destinations can be reached. More specifically, including in the analysis also indirect connections, it is possible to reach 7 RAIL4SEE different hubs within a total travel time 12 of 24 hours (see Figure 37). Concerning passenger demand (see Figure 38), it must be noted as it has remarkable values with reference mainly to other Italian hubs. Figure 36 - Rail direct connections from Venice to the other RAIL4SEE hubs 12 Including waiting times and with reference to fastest connection options. ::: 40 :::

42 Figure 37 Rail fastest connections travel times from Venice to other RAIL4SEE hubs Figure 38 Rail passenger demand from Venice to the other RAIL4SEE hubs ::: 41 :::

43 Vienna Vienna hub is characterised by high relevance both as origin/destination of relevant transnational connections and as a key transit node in the railway network. Such importance is also testified by the inclusion in the TEN-T core network being crossed by two core network corridors: N 1, Baltic Adriatic N 10, Strasbourg Danube In fact it is characterised by medium-high frequency connections with the nearest RAIL4SEE hubs in the Danube area: Budapest (10 trains/day) and above all Bratislava (35 trains/day). Limited connectivity (1 direct train/day) is supplied with reference to the other hubs of the North-Western part of RAIL4SEE area (with the exception of Trieste). Extending the analysis to possible indirect connections, the connectivity appears to be characterised by a total travel time (including waiting times) within 24 hours for reaching all RAIL4SEE hubs, with the only exception of Thessaloniki. In case of the fastest connection (see Figure 39), values are generally lower than 10 hours (apart from the cases of Bucharest and Sofia). Figure 39 Rail fastest connections travel times from Vienna to other RAIL4SEE hubs ::: 42 :::

44 Figure 40 - Rail direct connections from Vienna to the other RAIL4SEE hubs Indirect connections include also some intermodal solutions, as in the case of the connection with the Italian hubs by bus in the stretch from Villach to Venice. Moreover, Vienna plays a key interconnecting role in general since it is used as interchange node for many connections, among other Rail4SEE hubs (e.g. Bratislava with Italian hubs). The distribution of values concerning demand resembles the main characteristic of connections affecting the level of relationship with other RAIL4SEE hubs. It must be noted, once more, the higher values associated to the relation with Bratislava, which is related to a high number of daily commuters. ::: 43 :::

45 Figure 41 Rail passenger demand from Vienna to the other RAIL4SEE hubs ::: 44 :::

46 Zagreb Zagreb hub is the main reference node for Croatia and is part of the TEN-T core network being crossed by pan European corridor X. Considering international routes and connections in countries of SEE13, HZ Passenger Transport offers rail services to various Rail4SEE hubs (direct and indirect) as well as Munich and Frankfurt (direct) since Croatia has had strong links with Germany through the past (many people went, and still go, to work there). From the data provided it is visible that Zagreb (and Croatia) is mostly orientated to Austria, due to the past connections and Ljubljana, due to vicinity and because this hub is a turn point to other destinations in Europe. In particular the Figure 42 shows the direct connections while including in the analysis also indirect connections, it is possible to reach 7 RAIL4SEE different hubs within a total travel time of 24 hours (see Figure 43). Figure 42 - Rail direct connections from Zagreb to the other RAIL4SEE hubs 13 Related information was acquired from HZ Passenger Transport (official data for train). ::: 45 :::

47 Figure 43 Rail fastest connections travel times from Zagreb to other RAIL4SEE hubs Figure 44 Rail passenger demand from Zagreb to the other RAIL4SEE hubs ::: 46 :::

48 4 Conclusions This last chapter aims at summarising the main relevant conclusions resulting from the analysis carried out. Such considerations will be made in the following pages bearing in mind how RAIL4SEE focuses on the SEE inner connectivity, thus representing the attempt to understand how the integration process has been operating in the most problematic area of the EU because of its present day persisting spatial discontinuity, a factor limiting the full deployment of the integration. As a matter of fact, a blank area exists among several EU countries producing a minor efficiency of transnational links, in particular referred to the rail systems which are traditionally based on national standards with historical problems of border cross interoperability. This adds further difficulties to the natural geographic barriers existing in particular in the West Balkans. Transport innovations goes much faster in road and air than in rail systems, being those two transport sectors much more reactive to the market evolution by the demand side. The perception of the existing transport clusters related to people mobility reflects also the existence of more traditional transnational integration trends among the involved countries, identifying a sort of privileged basins of cross border relations which do not necessarily overlap with the transnational trade integration trends. Presumably the TEN T corridor strategy in the SEE will support efficiently the rail integration in the long term, but the improvement of the rail network efficiency requires also a medium-short term attention to the rail service improvements with greater attitude to understand how the transport market operates and where the rail can produce innovative services to be more competitive and supply the existing demand also in view of the limited investments and bilateral agreements. 4.1 Hubs and Catchment areas The project has analysed the connectivity between hubs that differ on the basis of urban size and their role within the national urban hierarchy. The following hubs are capital cities: - Bucharest, Budapest, Bratislava, Ljubljana, Sofia, Wien, Zagreb. The following hubs are regional capitals: - Bologna, Thessaloniki, Trieste, Venice. The definition of the catchment areas of each hub follows classification criteria that combine different factors: the demographic size of the urban/metropolitan area of the hub and its relative national importance, the geographical location of the hub within the country and the EEA, its connection to the national and European infrastructural network (rail and bus), the existing national and international services on these networks. ::: 47 :::