Lise Mulpas Communication Manager

Transcription

1 Customers Day 2012

2 Lise Mulpas Communication Manager

4 Welcome & Introduction Frank Vandenberghe Director Energy & System Management

6 Elia Group Vision Catherine Vandenborre Chief Corporate Officer

7 We lead the way in the energy revolution by developing the diversified, sustainable and reliable power systems, spanning land and see, with new possibilities 7

8 We anticipate and fulfill the needs of today s and tomorrow s communities. We re an innovative-driven, result-oriented, reliable, entrepreneurial and empathic team developing the integrated European power system. We bring together three essential elements: we integrate renewable energy, further develop the energy market and do anything within our power to be able to keep the lights on. We pursue sustainable profitable growth for our shareholders. 8

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12 Probabilistic methods & Results Viviane Illegems System Adequacy & Methods

13 Generation Adequacy Analysis A Generation Adequacy Analysis is not an estimation of commercial exchanges or opportunities but a capacity analysis to determine whether under different extreme conditions and combinations of extreme conditions a balance between load and generation is possible. 13

14 Phases of Market Modelling Generation Adequacy Analysis Inputs Demand profile Generator characteristics CHP profile Wind and Solar Profiles Transfer Capacities Exchanges to Rest of World profile Modelling Hourly model Each country is a single market node Assessment of the generation adequacy for each market node subjected to constraints such as generator availabilities and transmission capacity constraints. Outputs Indicators of security of supply Indicator of usage of interconnectors for adequacy reasons 14

15 Inputs for Generation Adequacy Analysis Objective: To perform an accurate risk analysis of the balance between load and generation in the short and medium term For detection on time, it is appropriate to take a probabilistic view that takes into account extreme events regarding load and generation evolutions => One set of basic hypotheses + sensitivity analyses 15

16 Inputs for Generation Adequacy Analysis National generation starting from current situation: decommisioning : conservative commissioning : no additional commissioning for classical (controllable) gas or coal power stations Generation in surrounding countries based on input delivered in the framework of the European development plan 2012 (TYNDP) 16

17 Inputs for Generation Adequacy Analysis Autonomously versus interconnected => the balance between generation and load is left to the market by the Belgian Electricity Law. Belgian simultaneous import capacity winter : 3500 MW summer : 3000 MW (mid April till mid October) For CWE day ahead market: the split up of this 3,5 GW over the borders is of limited relevance. Exceptional limitations of the simultaneous import capacity are not taken into account Exchange possibilities of surrounding countries Based on European development plan 2012 (TYNDP 2012) 17

18 Basic Adequacy hypotheses Electricity demand» critical periods for the security of supply correspond to the peak situations at severe conditions (e.g. cold wave combined with absence of wind and sunlight).» Peak load at severe conditions tends to rise, independently of the measured energy consumption on an annual basis. Bron : KMI A decrease in consumption on annual basis is not representative for the peak load during a cold day 2008 : consumption 90,2 TWh peak MW 2009 : consumption 83,8 TWh (-7,1% compared with 2008) peak MW (+0,8% compared with 2008) 2010 : consumption 90,4 TWh (+7,9% compared with 2009) peak MW (+4% compared with 2009) 18

19 Probabilistic Adequacy Analysis Focus on the availability of thermal generation time series based on the unavailability duration, average unavailability per month taking into account the type of generator and the country. Time series for non-dispatchable generation (wind, solar, biomass, ) and load based on information available at ENTSO-E level. - Positive : - Correlation of load & non-dispatchable generation profiles and thermal/nuclear generation stochastics between countries is respected. - Further under development : - At the moment limited information regarding temperature sensitivity for the CWE region at ENTSO-E level - At the moment limited information regarding the variability of RES for the CWE region at ENTSO-E level 19

20 Output of a probabilistic adequacy analysis Indicators of security of supply Loss of Load Expectation (LOLE): The expected number of hours per year that the balance between load and generation can not be met in a statistic average year. LOLE(95): The expected number of hours per year that the balance between load and generation can not be met in an exceptional year with a probability of 1 in 20. Energy not served (ENS ): the amount of energy that not can be delivered by local generators or through import from neigbouring countries (limited to 3500 MW) during the LOLE hours. Indicator of usage of interconnectors for adequacy reasons Reflects the average simultaneous import capacity that is needed to balance load assuming all available national generation is used and that excess generation capacity is available abroad. Reminder : current situation regarding load shedding contracts with industrial clients for system service reasons: Maximum number of hours 20 h/yr Maximum power 261 MW Maximum energy +/ MWh/yr 20

21 Illustration 1 : Scenario description (KERN 4/7/2012) Generation hypotheses of the scenario (KERN 4/7/2012) on which the decision of the federal government of 4 juli 2012 was based to delay the decommissioning of Tihange 1 with 10 years Decommissioning Commissioning Doel 1 : 15/2/2015, Doel 2 : 1/10/2015 Old thermal units (> 35 years old) (~ 1000 MW) No decomissioning of several CCGTs (< 25 years old) No new thermal units RES & CHP development according to federal objectives 21

22 Generation Adequacy Analysis : KERN 4/7/2012 Illustration - situation 2017 Exceptional situations (P95) 2017: one winter month during 2 to 3 hours, on average a loss of power of ~520 MW load shedding of 1,04 million inhabitants or families Additional measures are needed to cope with exceptional situations till the commissioning of new power plants. KERN Average year Exceptional year (P95) LOLE ENS LOLE (95) ENS (95) number of hours with shortage Energy Not Served (in MWh) number of hours with shortage Energy Not Served (in MWh)

23 Illustration 2: Scenario description (KERN 4/7/2012 & unavailability of Doel 3 & Tihange 2) Generation hypotheses of the scenario (KERN 4/7/2012) on which the decision of the federal government of 4 juli 2012 was based to delay the decommissioning of Tihange 1 with 10 years Decommissioning Commisioning Doel 1 : 15/2/2015, Doel 2 : 1/10/2015 Old thermal units (> 35 years old) (~ 1000 MW) No decomissioning of several CCGTs (< 25 years old) No new thermal units RES & CHP development according to federal objectives Additional generation hypothesis Accelerated decommisioning of Doel 3 & Tihange 2 due to cracks in their reactor vessels 23

24 Generation Adequacy Analysis : KERN 4/7/2012 & unavailability of Doel 3 & Tihange 2 (KERN-D3-T2) Illustration - situation 2013 Exceptional situations (P95) 2013: one winter month during 2 to 3 hours, on average a loss of power of ~450 MW load shedding of 0,9 million inhabitants or families P95 if Doel 3 & Tihange 2 are shut down permanently Additional measures are needed to cope with exceptional situations till the commissioning of new power plants. Average year Exceptional year (P95) KERN-D3-T2 LOLE ENS LOLE (95) ENS (95) number of Energy Not number of Energy Not hours with shortage Served (in MWh) hours with shortage Served (in MWh)

25 Elia s conclusions regarding the Generation Adequacy Analysis national generation adequacy report 1. A well functioning international market is crucial in a European context especially with more variability and changes in the availability of generation. 2. The additional generation adequacy analyses regarding the unavailability of Doel 3 & Tihange 2 assumes a commercial simultaneous import capacity of 3500 MW, that will be offered to the market by Elia during winter. 3. It is assumed that market parties will buy the required energy on the international market in order to supply their customers. 4. Under severe conditions it is very probable that coordinated actions are needed to maintain the security of the electricity system. 25

26 The way forward Improvement for Generation Adequacy - From 2013 on additional time series for wind, solar and load will become available at ENTSO- E level. - Correlation between countries is respected - More extreme situations can be modelled 26

28 Ancillaries Patrick De Leener Energy Management

30 Warmtekrachtkoppeling in de glastuinbouw Herman Mariën Vertegenwoordiger van WOM Docent aan de hogeschool Thomas More Kempen

31 Wom cvba w armtekrachtkoppeling in de glastuinbouw 31 Ing. Herman Marien

32 onderwerpen Productieproces Warmte & CO 2. Wom cvba kengetallen warmtekrachtkoppeling Wkk praktisch Contractueel kader Wkk en elia-onbalans 32

33 Productieproces in serre Productieproces Teelt Productverwerking Productiemiddelen Unit/water-nutriënten Klimaatregeling Verwarming energie CO 2 -bemesting 33

34 WOM kengetallen leden (>60% van de installatie in glastuinbouw) ± 130 Motoren (MWM; Jenbacher; Catepillar; MTU; RR;.) Van 500 kw tot 8,4 MW ± 340 ha glasoppervlakte. Tomaat (306 ha) Paprika (19,3 ha) Komkommer (6,2 ha) Snijbloemen (roos/gerbera/ ) (20 ha) Groepsaankoop van 3.1 TWh aardgas Groepsproductie van GWh elektriciteit. (± 220 MW opgesteld vermogen)

35 Waar en grootte

36 kw / ha Dimensioneren van WKK Op basis van belastingscurve Energiebehoefte en maximaal gebruik wkk Optimale CO 2 -benutting Maximaal elektrische rendement 1800,0 tomaat MJ/m² Wkk-vermogen / ha = 660 kwe 1600,0 1400,0 1200,0 1000,0 800,0 600,0 400,0 200,0 36 0,0 105 u 630 u u u u u u u u u u

37 Draaipatroon Vergelijkbaar met menselijke elektriciteitsconsumptie. Koude periode vaak continu Tussen seizoen afhankelijk van warmte en CO 2 -vraag Zomer u per dag op basis van CO 2 -vraag Warmte wordt gebufferd in buffertank 37

38 Contractueel kader 38 Individueel gasafname contract Groeps-flexibiliteit Globaal leverancierscontract elektriciteit verantwoordelijkheid bij elke eindgebruiker Gas-elektriciteit positie (handel) Termijnorders: Cal; Q; Mnd; week Nominatie Dag-1 = fijn regeling met belpex Nominatie - Realisatie (fysiek) Per kwartier Afwijking tov nominatie = onbalans Positief = MWh(+) aan pos onb prijs Negatief = MWH(-) aan neg onb prijs Groot verschil

39 Profiel invulling in E-markt MWh Combinatie van Termijn: Cal; Q; Mnd; week Dag-1: belpex Calendar Quarter Month Weeks Belpex 39 J F M A M J J A S O N D

40 Dagelijkse nominatie Tuinder nomineert voor volgende dag Onvoorwaardelijk : van uur A tot B Voorwaardelijk: belpexprijs uur A >= limiet dan draaien Beslissingsfactoren Weersvoorspelling Ruimte buffertank Verwachte marktprijzen 40

41 41 BELPEX - ONBALANS

42 Wom - onbalansinfo Tuinders volgen onbalans via Elia website Eigen verwerkte grafieken SMS-apps 42

43 Wom-profiel elektriciteit 2011 Q /2 Q /5 Q /8 Q /11 43

44 Wom-profiel elektriciteit 2012 Q /2 Q /5 Q /9 44

45 Dank voor de aandacht 45 Ing. Herman Marien Thomas More Kempen

47 Winter Action Plan Procedure in case of energy scarcity Wim Michiels National Control Center

48 Content Consequences of forced outage of NPPs Doel 3 & Tihange 2 during winter Elia Winter Action Plan What will happen in normal winter and extreme case of energy shortage? 48

49 Consequences of forced outage of NPPs Doel 3 and Tihange 2 during winter remember Risk 49

50 How is Elia prepared Elia Winter Action Plan : ENTSO-E Winter outlook: normal and severe conditions Specific impact study: CWE Dynamic analysis - voltage stability Maximize availability of grid and generation during winter period Specific monitoring of system adequacy and margins: previsional and Real time Availability of exchange of power between TSO s (TenneT & RTE) Guarantee import capacity (3500 MW) Prepare actions with authorities Preparation with DSO s (synergrid) Internal training Communication, information, sensibilize, 50

51 System operations in normal conditions and extreme situation of energy shortage Next winter : Normal operations Extreme situation: risk on energy shortage in case of exceptional cold spell (e.g. February 2012) and no renewables production 51

52 Normal operations Responsibilities - ARP (Access Responsible Party): balance load and injection - TSO: balance in real time, maximize commercial capacity, system operation (congestions, voltage, flows, stability, ) Market has to work - Belgium will be structural dependent upon import, even in normal operations - Elia guarantees import capacity of 3500 MW but market players have to buy the necessary energy on international market (CWE market coupling) Need for coordinated (international) actions to guarantee Security of Supply 52

53 Market 53

54 Example: physical flows in case of max. import of 3500 MW of The Netherlands Mercator Meerhout Avelgem Avelin Bruegel Courcelles Monceau Gramme Chooz Mazures Aubange 1000 MW 54

55 What will happen in extreme situation of energy shortage? Legal context Grid Code A.R Art 312 Ministerial Decree M.B Gird Code A.R Art 314 Afdeling II Heropbouwcode Art De netbeheerder stelt de heropbouwcode op, na raadpleging van de commissie, die, in voorkomend geval, in de contracten bedoeld in artikel 312, 1 opgenomen wordt. De heropbouwcode en zijn wijzigingen worden aan de commissie meegedeeld Section II Code de reconstruction Art Le gestionnaire du réseau établit le code de reconstruction après consultation de la commission lequel est repris, le cas échéant, dans les contrats visés à l article 312, 1er. Le code de reconstruction, ainsi que ses modifications, sont notifiés à la commission. 55

56 Elia Emergency plan: levels 1. Crisismanagement: organisation and coordination 2. Defence plan: 2 parts Protection against sudden phenomena: automatic load shedding plan Protection against predicted scarcity/ shortage 3. Restoration code: restore supply 56

57 Crisis organizations: Elia and Government 57

58 Extreme situation of energy shortage/ scarcity ARP does/can not respect balance obligation because of: Generation scarcity Not enough energy available to import SCARCITY Characteristics of scarcity: 1. Amount (in MW) of load at risk: how much? 2. Geographical distribution: where? 3. Expected duration (h) or frequency of this scarcity situation: how long? Scarcity is predictable Measures 1. Demand limitation (soft) 2. Prohibition (hard) to use electricity for certain purposes 3. Load shedding 4. Open lines 58

59 Energy shortage: processes Prevention Detection Notification Discussion Decision Execution Elia ARP/ Elia Elia Elia/ FOD Ec Minister(s) Minister(s) Elia/ DNB Previsional (week ahaed, day ahead) during real time operations When situation is confimed: (partial) activiation Elia emergency plan Sending out std fax (see slide) to CGCCR Proposition Elia: match specific nature of shortage with set of measures ENTSO-E Winter outlook, Operational planning (Y, M, W, D-1), international coordination, intraday & real time follow-up,. TSO proposes measures; Minister decides (MB June 3th 2005; art 312, 4,1 TR) Minister informs public through the media 59

60 Extreme situation of energy shortage: operational procedure 1. Demand limitation measures Sensibilisation of public: lowering down demand through media (radio, TV, websites, ) Shift demand peak Use other means 2. Prohibition to use electricity for certain purposes: examples Industry: limited use of airco, prohibition to use electricity for certain processes, reduce power to cooling installations for limited period, reducing outside lighting,. Tertiary: limited use of airco, electrical heating, lighting during peak hours, 60

61 Load shedding: manual activation NW CE SW NE SE 3000 MW Load shedding in rural grids Elia in collaboration with DSO s 61

62 Energy shortage procedure Load shedding: examples Example: 1000 MW deficit Manual activation of level 1 and 2 in all electrical zones Example: Deficit of 1000 MW > 6h or several days manual activation of levels 1 and 2 in all zones during first 3h, followed by the activation of level 3 and 4 during next 3 hours (and repowering of levels 1 and 2). If situation persists several days: order of manual activated levels could be changed. 62

63 Energy shortage procedure Cut interconnection lines: no Less electrical connections makes the system less stable (e.g. Indian black out in July 2012) Operation of the electricity market is essential Reconstruction Decision to take through consultation with authorities and Elia. 63

64 Conclusions ARP (Access Responsible Party): balance load and injection Elia balances control block in real time (f=50 Hz) During next winter (in case Doel 3 and Tihange are not available): Belgium will be structural dependent upon import even during normal winter conditions Risk in extreme winter conditions on energy shortage scarcity 3500 MW import capacity available BUT Market players have to buy energy on (international) market Measures in case of energy scarcity: 1. Demand limitation 2. Prohibition 3. Load shedding 64

66 Coffee break